OT - Lions playoffs chances per 538
Pride of Detroit worked through the middle (source: https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2022/12/13/23507081/detroit-lions-2022-playoff-odds-probability-models-3-1-finish )
Given the situation that the Lions are in, there's cause for serious optimism.
Overall, 538 gives Detroit a 20% chance at making the playoffs (given a 1-6 start this is crazy to think about.)
However, if the Lions finish 3-1 (and it looks like they'll be favored in every game going forward) the odds raise to between 36% and 43%.
If the Lions win out, they're given a 91% chance.
It's just so hard to win four games in a row (six if you include the two already finished wins), but the Lions are one of, if not the hottest team in the league right now.
Huge props to Dan Campbell. There were a lot of people calling for him to be fired after the 1-6 start; while I thought he should get at least one more year, I'll admit that I was concerned and starting to question if he was the right guy for the job. I think the way this season is closing out and being able to rally the troops after such a poor start, combined with heartbreak loss after heartbreak loss is just a testament to how strong of a leader Campbell actually is. I'm cautiously optimistic about making the playoffs this year, but looking forward into next year this team looks like it could be very dangerous and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they won the North.
December 13th, 2022 at 4:03 PM ^
Saying nice things about the Lions and having hope before the game/season is over… I guess we haven’t learned anything, have we.
December 13th, 2022 at 4:26 PM ^
Lions fans. Forever...
December 13th, 2022 at 5:10 PM ^
Nope, haven’t learned a thing. I’m doomed to be a Lions fan for life. Having said that, they look pretty good. They may or may not make the playoffs but they’re playing with a swagger I haven’t seen on a Lions team in quite sometime.
December 13th, 2022 at 7:42 PM ^
The combined records of the 7 teams the Lions lost to is 64-27.
Probably the most impressive set of losses in the league and most were close games, we'd probably win a couple of those now.
December 13th, 2022 at 8:19 PM ^
“The most impressive 7 losses” in 13 games played so far sounds a little like Nebraska being the best 3-9 team in the country. Not quite the same - but in the same zip code.
December 13th, 2022 at 4:15 PM ^
anyone calling for campbell's firing is very short sighted. nobody thought this D would be any good. complete rebuild. that said, i was very skeptical of his abilities following his initial press conference upon his hiring.
December 13th, 2022 at 6:50 PM ^
It helps to finally have a GM/front office who knows what they’re doing
December 13th, 2022 at 6:59 PM ^
I thought he should fire the defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn. While there's a lot of room for improvement, the defense has held up when it needed to the last few weeks. Ironically, the only coaching change they made was firing secondary coach Aubrey Pleasant who was considered head coach material before the season.
December 13th, 2022 at 7:53 PM ^
I grew up a Lions fan but have lived in Cleveland most of my adult life and became a Browns fan many years ago. This past weekend I went to Vegas and got to watch the Lions/Vikings game side by side the Browns/Bengals game at the Wynn sports book (lost $100 on Browns + 4.5 but won $50 on Lions - 1.5).
The difference between the Lions and Browns was something to see. The Lions played with passion and emotion and you could clearly see they were motivated by Campbell. The Browns, on the other hand, played with zero fire and looked about as excited to be out there as I do heading to the dentist. Our boy-genius Stefanski might call a great game but I don’t think he connects with players at all while your HC clearly does.
I think you still need a QB but man I love how they’re building that team from the defense on out. May not happen this year but you can see they’re coming.
Restore the roar.
December 13th, 2022 at 9:44 PM ^
Elaborate for me a little on why you think they need to replace Goff. To my eyes, he’s playing quite well.
December 14th, 2022 at 11:57 AM ^
LOL. mGO tried to talk us into trading for Baker Mayfield before the season even started.
And you're correct, Goff is playing the best he's ever played in his career. He's no Josh Allen but his current performance is matching his cap hit.
December 13th, 2022 at 4:16 PM ^
I remember Christmas Eve 2017 --- because I was at this game --- Lions at the edge of the playoff race and playing in a cold drizzle on the road against a Cincinnati team that had basically quit on Marvin Lewis.
The Lions, of course, lost that game. As it turned out, they would have made the playoffs had they won that game, but they didn't.
Now, 2022 Carolina isn't as bad as 2017 Cincinnati. But Christmas Eve, on the road, Lions on the edge of the playoff race --- hmmmm.
I know, I know. Precedent doesn't predict the future. But I'll only believe in the Detroit Lions winning when it counts (they beat the Vikings, but it wasn't a real high-stakes game for either team) when I actually see it.
December 13th, 2022 at 4:46 PM ^
The game was absolutely high-stakes for the Lions. It was a statement win and gives them a puncher's chance at the playoffs. If they lost that game their chances were dramatically lower. I still think they need to win out to get in, but that means every game from here on out is high stakes. When is the last time we said that about the Lions?
Also the Vikings clearly played to win that game. Don't act like they weren't trying. Win that game and the chances they lock up the number 2 seed are very high. They don't want to mess with Philly or San Francisco until they have to.
December 13th, 2022 at 8:21 PM ^
High-stakes means the individual game means something by itself. This game will soon be forgotten. Vikings - worst 10-2 team (2nd worst 9-3 if they even lost one more game) in the history of the NFL. The Lions were favored.
December 13th, 2022 at 6:53 PM ^
The Vikings expected to win, jalen reagor guaranteed a win and a division title calling it a “hat & tshirts” game…….they expected to walk in and blow the lions out…..turns out the lions were playing to win
December 13th, 2022 at 7:29 PM ^
That was a totally different team and coaching staff. I think MCDC will have them ready. Plus, Carolina will still be in a division race, so it should be a pretty lively atmosphere.
December 13th, 2022 at 4:16 PM ^
I typically find professional football almost debilitatingly boring but even I got Lions fever on Sunday.
December 13th, 2022 at 4:19 PM ^
The offense is rolling again after a mid season drought and the D led by Hutch is improving. Things are starting to look up. Even Ford Field is packed each week. Exciting times of football in the state of Michigan.
December 13th, 2022 at 6:01 PM ^
Have to say something as a GVSU grad…we beat the two teams in the championship in regular season play en route to undefeated season but shit ourselves playing Ferris a second time in playoffs of course.
So irritating but good luck. Would love to see Michigan teams with football championships in D2 and D1 in the same year.
December 13th, 2022 at 7:01 PM ^
Hard to beat the same team twice. Especially in the playoffs (that’s why I didn’t want to play OSU in the first round). Would be crazy if Michigan schools could claim both titles and I hope it happens. It’s wild to see how far FSU and UM have came in the past decade.
December 14th, 2022 at 8:20 AM ^
All my teams are in a Football Renaissance:
The Lions have one of the best Offenses in the league.
Back2Back B1G Titles and CFP berths for Michigan.
King is a perennial State Champion.
December 13th, 2022 at 4:21 PM ^
Campbell has done a good job to keep the team going but hoo boy did he seem to be in over his head a bit earlier this season. The loss to the Vikes was on him and I'd put the loss to the Bills on him/OC too. All will be forgiven if we make the playoffs.
Gotta say though, I'm very nervous making the playoffs will come down to winning that last game at Green Bay. That's the kind of game Lions have found a way to lose more often than not in my lifetime.
December 13th, 2022 at 4:50 PM ^
It's always tough to win in Green Bay, especially with a healthy Aaron Rodgers. I don't care how bad they look, they're still the Packers and he's still Aaron Rodgers.
December 13th, 2022 at 5:33 PM ^
Hopefully, the Pack will be so deep in the hole by then that they will just tank it. Not counting on that, though. Road games against jets and panthers won't be easy.
December 13th, 2022 at 7:03 PM ^
MCDC is a coach that has proven this year to learn from his mistakes. He’s growing and getting better as the season wears on….he even says the first Vikings loss “burns” him….
this team has had recent success against the packers and this years packers team is a shell of what it once was
December 13th, 2022 at 4:27 PM ^
I doubt they win out, and while playoffs would be great, I hope people realize that we're already seeing all that could have reasonably been hoped for from such a young team in year 2 of the rebuild.
On O, they are nearly complete and Ben Johnson looks great. Goff is at least good enough to get you to the playoffs. They still need some more talent in the secondary. Another big time DE (Will Anderson yes please) opposite Hutch would also be great as they don't get much organic pass rush. And the D really needs another year of development.
Next year is the year where they need to show they are playoff team and an NFC North true contender. I wouldn't be surprised if they are the favorite preseason.
December 14th, 2022 at 12:04 PM ^
Agree, I really wanted to see them address that bad secondary in the draft last year and instead we did the Lions thing and traded up for a WR. Reeeeally hoping we will spend some significant capital on the secondary this offseason. I think if we can get that fixed up to even top 10-ish that will give our line a chance to payoff it's aggression.
December 13th, 2022 at 4:31 PM ^
Unless Jordan Love is the answer, the Packers look to be in for a rough time. The Bears let all of their top defensive players go. The Vikings have a lot of talent. I can see the Lions vying with them next year too, only closer.
December 13th, 2022 at 4:34 PM ^
Love to have that first Minny game back! and the Miami game, and the Buffalo game.
No matter what happens, this last month plus has been fun to watch. They are legit beating teams. No flukes, no lucky bounces, just stone cold beatings. Get a couple first round draft picks on defense and lets go!
I watch them every Sunday at my local sports bar. Only Lions fan there, and complete strangers buying me drinks to celebrate. Lions the feel good story of the season.
December 14th, 2022 at 10:19 AM ^
The Minny game was lost due to a horrible decision to go for a long FG, and the Buffalo game was lost due to horrendous clock management on our final drive. Both of those losses are on Campbell. But, then there's the Penai Sewell reception. So, the weirdness goes both ways.
December 13th, 2022 at 4:39 PM ^
Running the table and making the playoffs would be almost historic with a 9-1 finish, but I believe 3-1 might be enough to get it done based on how the other 3 contenders are playing and their schedule. Our hurdle is 3 of the 4 games left are on the road.
I love the enthusiasm around the Lions and if we win Sunday @NYJ the optimism will go to another level. If someone would have told me on October this would be the headline in Mid-December, I would have answered stop drinking and go to bed.
December 13th, 2022 at 5:40 PM ^
I read that with the word “for” at the end of it.
Shows what years of abuse does.
December 13th, 2022 at 4:45 PM ^
At Campbell's introductory press conference, I remember thinking "Oh no... What have we done???" But it didn't take me long to come around on him.
Quinn and Patricia literally removed any and all talent from this roster. The rebuild required was generational. So far, Campbell has done well in a few key areas in my opinion:
- He gets buy in from his players and his players WANT to play for him.
- He isn't afraid to replace assistants that he thinks are not performing and upgrade the talent there. See: Aubrey Pleasant, Anthony Lynn (Ben Johnson may be the best OC in the league right now).
- He works well with Brad Holmes to select talent at all levels in the draft. Look how many young players are starting and contributing. When is the last time you could say that about the LIONS!!!
I think Goff is better than I anticipated. I think I'd spend next year's draft capital on defense as much as possible. Definitely still need some additional help at corner, and depth at linebacker. I really want Will Anderson.
If they make good selections and sign a strategic free agent or two, sky is the limit next year. I think they can win a game, maybe two in the playoffs this year, but I don't think they have a championship defense yet.
Feels so good to have legit hope for the Lions though. If they ever win the SuperBowl, the party in Detroit will be a wonder of the world.
December 13th, 2022 at 4:56 PM ^
- He gets buy in from his players and his players WANT to play for him.
That's the #1 irreplaceable quality, I think. The clock management and playcalling - especially in the Bills game - have let the team down, but he can eventually learn from that and be more risk-averse when it's appropriate. There's no universe where Lions players were ever going to be excited to play for Matt Patricia.
December 13th, 2022 at 5:40 PM ^
Yep - that's his one major flaw - in game decisions... But as you said - he can improve there. I think he will.
December 13th, 2022 at 7:12 PM ^
I think Jalen Carter or Brian Bresee would be perfect gets early…….solidify DT and get more pressure up the middle….I’d get Uzomah from Kansas state in the second or maybe KJ Henry from Clemson later in the draft @DE….
December 13th, 2022 at 4:56 PM ^
Ok, but because the Lions invented BPONE in 1961, their playoff chances are zero. They will lose their last game to not make the playoffs
December 13th, 2022 at 4:59 PM ^
I was a Lions fan for decades even though I left Michigan. Last time I really cared was when they had Suh... but he broke my fandom almost as much as Barry leaving. Hated having to root for a cheap shot artist.
But under Campbell I've noticed a not so talented team is playing pretty well. Now with Hutch on the team I am starting to come back. It was a smart move to trade Stafford even though he is the best Lions QB I've ever seen.
I think they might be in for some success with this coach and the stock pile of picks. Hope they make the playoffs this year and I hope the Rams keep losing so we get higher picks.
December 13th, 2022 at 5:06 PM ^
Dan Campbell is the right guy. Hats off to the front office for hiring them.
Their last 2 draft classes have been dynamite. We are seriously 2 good defensive backs away from a deep run in the playoffs.
December 13th, 2022 at 7:22 PM ^
One starting blue chip CB away. After a rough start, Okudahs finally playing at his draft status
December 13th, 2022 at 5:09 PM ^
Eff'in Las Vegas! Thanks a lot, Las Vegas!
Despite that disappointment, we still stand to have a great draft between LA's first-round pick, as well as ours. And the 2 picks in the second, one in the third, the fifth, and two sixth-round picks. The Lions Brass has been nailing the draft; if they get this one right too, look out!
December 13th, 2022 at 5:31 PM ^
Well, eventually, the BoSox broke the curse. And the Cubs! So, it can happen.
BELIEVE
December 13th, 2022 at 5:35 PM ^
Lions love to hover between no elite draft pick and not an elite team. A couple ref jobs and they will slide back into their usual spot.
December 13th, 2022 at 7:06 PM ^
I mean, the Lions had the 2nd pick last year, and this year their better 1st round pick will be from the Rams. Unfortunately that pick might not be #2 where Will Anderson is expected to go. Perhaps they can trade up though with all of their draft capital.
December 13th, 2022 at 7:17 PM ^
McShay has them picking Stroud and wow do I think that's a terrible idea.
December 13th, 2022 at 7:27 PM ^
An awful catastrophic idea
December 13th, 2022 at 7:29 PM ^
I don't think Lions are even going to go for a QB. At least not first round. Goff isn't even throwing stupid picks now.
December 13th, 2022 at 5:40 PM ^
my partner sometimes says i'm not really a lions fan because (completely contrary to my michigan fandom), i'm a pessimist. big time. but i bet i watched every last one of barry sanders' carries, and calvin johson's catches, and...i could go on. my first favorite player was lem barney. i've got scars on scars on scars.
but...i don't know, man. i feel awfully good about this team right now. and its coach, too, which is the most surprising thing i've ever thought about the lions.
i just spent $500 on two tickets to their last home game, against the bears. i haven't been to ford field for an nfl game, that's how optimistic i am right now.
i'm an idiot, is what i'm saying, but this is one hella fun team. i can't help it!
December 13th, 2022 at 5:49 PM ^
I used to enjoy checking out 538's sports predictive models, but they really went off the rails in the last couple weeks of the college football season. I suspect their pro model isn't any better, but at least in that case playoff spots are determined by mathematical rules, and not by a committee's opinions.