OT: Justin Verlander on the cusp of 3000 career strikeouts
He has 2989 after tonight’s eight. He’s also nearing 20 wins (223 now in his career) and 300 strikeouts in 2019. If he pitches on normal rest, he has two more starts this year against the Angels, and he would still get normal rest before the start of the playoffs.
He’s got an outside shot at his second triple crown (league leader in wins, strikeouts, and earned run average), and he is a top 2 pitcher in baseball in all advanced stats. This is all likely to earn him his second Cy Young award. He will be just the 17th pitcher to get to 3000 career strikeouts (compared to 32 hitters with 3000 career hits, which makes me wonder why we don’t celebrate this milestone as much).
Looking at the all time leaderboard, it seems like Chris Sale and Max Scherzer both have a good chance to pass him by the end of their respective careers if they stay on their current pace into their late 30s. JV is 36 this year, but he seems to have a couple more dominant years left, and he states he wants to pitch into his 40s, which has earned him comparisons to Tom Brady. I’d bet on him reaching 4000 career strikeouts by the time he retires, with a really shot at 4500. That would put him well into the top 5 or 10 all time for years to come. If recent trends continue, even with the higher strikeout rates, few young pitchers of today will pitch enough innings to make a run at his total.
I’m still hoping for a victory lap in the Olde English D. Mize, Faedo, Perez, Manning, and JV sounds good to me in a couple years.
September 18th, 2019 at 1:06 AM ^
Still an absolute travesty that he only has 1 Cy Young award.
September 18th, 2019 at 2:11 AM ^
He's pitched in a dominant era for pitchers, and was on the same staff with multiple candidates/winners for, what, 3 or 4 seasons? He's got a Cy Young, an MVP, ROTY, a ring, 3 no-hitters... I'd say he's done fine.
September 18th, 2019 at 4:59 AM ^
Still, the fact that Porcello beat him out without any first place votes was a joke.
September 18th, 2019 at 10:56 AM ^
Verlander definitely got jobbed and should have won in 2016, but Porcello did get a fair number of first place votes. Verlander had 14, Porcello had 8. What doomed Verlander was that he had several voters ranking him 4th or 5th, whereas Porscello had nearly all votes ranking him 1st-3rd. I think Porcello won 137-132. It was ridiculous considering Verlander had an objectively better year in almost all measures except win total.
September 18th, 2019 at 2:54 PM ^
No, what doomed him was 2 Tampa Bay voters leaving him off their ballots entirely, and then doing it again in 2016.
September 18th, 2019 at 8:18 AM ^
3 second place finishes including 2 where he got the most 1st place votes, IIRC. In a slightly different world, he could be tying the bow on his 4th Cy and the historical perspective of him would be so different.
September 18th, 2019 at 8:34 AM ^
I think his historical perspective will work out okay, but you do make a great point. I think two of those 2nd place finishes he should have won, especially the Porcello year. The crazy thing this season is that he's competing with his own teammate for the award and it isn't a sure thing he'll win it.
September 19th, 2019 at 1:22 PM ^
Well, he is married to a super model. I bet that takes away some of the sting.
September 18th, 2019 at 1:09 AM ^
One of the best homegrown Tiger talents ever. Can you name the last homegrown Tiger to hit 40 HRs?
September 18th, 2019 at 1:12 AM ^
Hank Greenberg. Norm Cash broke in with the White Sox.
September 18th, 2019 at 1:15 AM ^
When I first heard the question I thought Granderson or Norm. Parrish I believe topped at 33. Surprising they’ve only produced 1 big-HR-season hitter ever. Especially playing home games at their Friendly Confines for a century.
September 18th, 2019 at 9:21 AM ^
Greenberg would also probably have 500 home runs had he not been in the military and lost, essentially, four seasons of his career.
September 18th, 2019 at 3:58 AM ^
Willie Horton came close in '68 with 36 HR... 2nd in the AL.
September 18th, 2019 at 6:03 AM ^
good thing the tigers got rid of him and his contract....
September 18th, 2019 at 7:28 AM ^
It is. It would be a shame to see him be wasted with a triple A lineup.
September 18th, 2019 at 8:36 AM ^
While there were logical reasons for the decisions, it does seem crazy that the Tigers built around aging bats (Cabrera, Victor, etc.) because they didn't want to overpay aging pitchers. And yet Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello, and Price are all still going strong (some more than others).
September 18th, 2019 at 9:26 AM ^
There wasn't really a rhyme or reason to who and why certain players got extended and others didn't. It was just an attempt to win a WS as fast as possible. Then we got stuck with a top heavy roster and no depth. I remember being frustrated when the Tigers extended Sanchez because I knew it was going to come at the expense of Scherzer. Even with someone like Illitch, there's only so much money to go around.
September 18th, 2019 at 6:06 AM ^
Good thing we traded him!
September 18th, 2019 at 7:36 AM ^
223 wins and he’s said he wants to pitch 6 or 7 more seasons. He has a shot at being the last pitcher in MLB history to win 300 games.
He’s a top 25 pitcher of all time and climbing. Could go down as a top 10 pitcher of all time.
September 18th, 2019 at 8:17 AM ^
And think about all the times he didn’t come away with a win while on the tigers. Most of the time there was bullpen issues . I also never liked the way Leyland preferred to wait for his 130th pitch to finally undo him.
Sucks he’s not with the tigers but going Houston was the best thing for him. It appears they pay attention to his pitch count, and I think that’s going to extend his career. Never a fan of him going 120+ “because he can”.
September 18th, 2019 at 8:38 AM ^
He may say he wants to pitch another 6-7 years, but the odds of him being able to do so in a successful capacity are low. Very few pitchers last that long so to get to 300 (which would be awesome) he'd have to have two more dominant years (40 wins) and then hang on through a dwindling series of years where he wins 10-12 games....unlikely.
I think he's got a legit shot at 265-275. I'm not sure we'll see another 300 game winner.
September 18th, 2019 at 9:57 AM ^
Not sure, these athletes take a lot better care of their bodies than ones did from 30 years ago.
His career arc reminds me of Roger Clemons who was a 100 mph flame thrower who turned into a pin point control guy the last 10 years of his career and was more effective then. JV's control is so much better than ever right now, he could lose another 3 miles per hour off his fast ball and still be a #1 pitcher.
If I had to guess, I'd also say 275ish is more likely, but JV is very motivated to leave his mark.
September 18th, 2019 at 11:16 AM ^
It's not that far-fetched. If you figure he finishes this season out at 225 wins, then he only needs to average about 13 wins over six seasons to reach 300. If he stays healthy and can find his way onto competitive teams, it's very achievable.
September 18th, 2019 at 7:45 AM ^
I'm glad Detroit traded him. That move put life back into his career. The Tigers were a sinking ship
September 18th, 2019 at 8:04 AM ^
Were? They still are and will be for a decade more.
September 18th, 2019 at 8:18 AM ^
It has always amazed me that the Tigers once had Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello and Doug Fister (when he was good) in their rotation, in addition to some high priced hitters, yet never managed to win the Series.
September 18th, 2019 at 8:29 AM ^
Don’t forget about Sanchez. Dude was filthy when he was on, which was often during his first couple years with the tigers.
September 18th, 2019 at 9:07 AM ^
Wasn’t David Price on that staff?
September 18th, 2019 at 9:06 AM ^
Its amazing DD could put together starters like that but never figure out how to build a bullpen.
September 18th, 2019 at 8:29 AM ^
I'm a big JV fan. Loved him as a Tiger. Very happy for him as an Astro.
His best seasons have been in Houston. His Cy Young year in Detroit is maybe the exception but really his WHIP and Ks have been better in Houston than even 2011.
I want what he's having.
September 18th, 2019 at 10:41 AM ^
Me too.
September 18th, 2019 at 8:46 AM ^
I love Justin Verlander as much as the next guy, but Father Time usually defeats all pitchers eventually. I think your suggestion that he can get to 4000 let alone 4500 K's is laughable....even if I'll be rooting for it.
He's 17th right now and flirting with 300 K this season. The second career arc in Houston has been nothing short of amazing, but let's realistically say he's good for about 500 K the next two years before his decline starts. He would have to hold on for another 3-4 years into his early 40s with the hope of MAYBE getting to 4000.
I think you'll see him try to stick around long enough for 5th place all-time between #4 Steve Carlton (4136) and #5 Bert Blyleven (3701). The top 3 are definitely untouchable (Ryan, Johnson, Clemens).
September 18th, 2019 at 1:44 PM ^
Eh, maybe it's laughable. Let's be objective...
Bill James has a career statistic projection tool on ESPN. It gives a 35% chance for him to get to 4000, and a 7% chance at 4500. Those are probably too low, however, given the strikeout rates going up (a lot). He has raised his substantially heading toward his late 30s. Without injury, I feel confident in 4000, which is why I said I'd bet on it. 4500 is a stretch goal, but I'm not betting on it.
September 18th, 2019 at 3:01 PM ^
If you look at the guys around him in strikeouts, and just the top guys in general, they average about 21 seasons and pitching until roughly 41-42 (Nolan Ryan being one exception). That would give Verlander another 6 seasons to put up counting stats.
To be fair, I agree 4,000 is pretty unlikely. However, if he plays 6 more seasons an averages say, 150 K's per year, which isn't a lot in today's game, he'd be pretty darn close.
September 18th, 2019 at 3:03 PM ^
His current single season WHIP is also top 3-4 all time I believe. Live ball era, only 2000 Pedro Martinez is better. Verlander is actually having not just a great season, but historically great.
September 18th, 2019 at 9:15 AM ^
Better comparison would be Nolan Ryan not Tom Brady. If comparing age in the same sport.
September 18th, 2019 at 9:30 AM ^
My favorite player to watch in baseball. While we didn't win a WS and probably won't for the foreseeable future, the Tigers had two of the best players of the generation in Cabrera and Verlander. We will be lucky to have one player the caliber of those two in the next 20 years.
September 18th, 2019 at 10:28 AM ^
The fact that we have no WS titles to show for all that talent we had during that 10 year span under Leyland still chaps my ass a bit.
September 18th, 2019 at 2:13 PM ^
Yes and no. We got to two WS. You gotta win at least one. Those chances don't come often. Baseball is a weird sport. You could be the best team in baseball all season. And stumble for a few games and its over. 2001 Seattle Mariners won 116 games. Lost 4-1 in the ALCS to the Yankees. They had won 6 of 9 against them in the regular season.
Should have won in 2006. St Louis hobbled into the playoffs, squeaked through the NLDS and NLCS. And we just played like we had never played baseball before. 2012, the Giants were on fire, winning at a .667 clip heading into the playoffs.
September 18th, 2019 at 10:17 AM ^
I watched the Tigers last night from Progressive Field. Truly awful.
September 18th, 2019 at 10:26 AM ^
If he can effectively pitch into his 40's then he has an excellent chance at 300 wins as well. Assuming he gets to 225 wins by the end of this season, he'd only need 5-6 years to reach 300 averaging 12-15 wins per season.
September 18th, 2019 at 10:35 AM ^
Number 35 will be on the wall in Comerica Park 3 years after he retires.
September 18th, 2019 at 11:29 AM ^
Without a doubt. Maybe the best prospect to ever come out of the Tiger's farm system.
September 18th, 2019 at 12:01 PM ^
And..... his wife is smokin' hot
September 18th, 2019 at 12:34 PM ^
I honestly forgot that the baseball season is still going on.
I've reached a point where if the Detroit teams aren't good I completely tune out whatever sport it is. Only Michigan keeps my interest through thick and thin.
September 18th, 2019 at 4:04 PM ^
How do feel you about Winnipeg City Ordinances?