OT: "It's Okay to Believe in the 'Hot Hand'"

Submitted by restive neb on

A few months ago, there was some discussion about whether the "Hot Hand" was a real thing, or simply the expected result of chance over time.  A study in the 1980s ("The Cold Facts About the 'Hot Hand' in Basketball") suggested that believers in the hot hand were suffering from a "cogniitive illusion." 

In that mgoblog board discussion a few months ago, I mentioned that I had come across a study disputing that original study.  Unfortunately, I was unable to find it --  I had read it in a book that was given to me as a gift about a decade ago.  I had completely given up on finding the study.  However, I just moved into a new home last month, and while unpacking boxes this week, I came across the book!  It's titled "Anthology of Statistics in Sports", Edited by Albert, Bennett, and Cochran, and printed in 2005.  The specific study is titled "It's. Okay to Believe in the 'Hot Hand.'"  The authors' conclusion was that the original study was flawed, and that there was strong evidence that streak shooting was a real thing.

The data set included several games from the 1987-88 NBA season, and had several big name players included in the analysis.  One of those players, Vinnie Johnson of the Pistons, had a reputation as the ultimate streak shooter.  The authors looked to see if Vinnie really did accomplish low-probability streaks at higher frequency than other players, and the answer was a resounding "yes."  Fans were able to "make proper reputational attributions to those players who do the improbable and memorable more regularly than other players."

One of the more interesting results:  When looking at the probability to hit the next shot based on whether the previous shot(s) had been made or missed, Dennis Rodman's numbers really jumped out.  Probability after one make:  0.55.  After two makes:  0.78.  After 3 makes:  0.92.  Conclusion:  "success breeds success."  As he hits shots, his probability of a hit increases.  But then this:  Probability after one miss:  0.63.  After 2 misses:  0.69.   After 3 misses:  1.00.  Conclusioin:  For Rodman, "failure breeds success."  As he misses shots, his probability of a hit increases.  As with everything else concerning Rodman, that's just weird.  (Sample sizes diminished as the streaks continued, so this conclusion has to be taken with a grain of salt.)

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samdrussBLUE

August 26th, 2015 at 10:56 PM ^

Anyone who has ever played would tell you the hot hand exists. The mental state affects your physical state and probability of success. Anyone who says otherwise, I do not trust.



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Tater

August 27th, 2015 at 1:10 AM ^

Bo was a master at riding the "hot" back.  A lot of backs used to see action in the first half, but he seemed to ride the guy who was giving the defense the most trouble in the second half.  I have a feeling the combination of Harbaugh and a lot of backs may give us the opportunity to see the same thing.

I know it's different than the "hot hand."  It's even more reliable, though, because of individual personnel matchups.  Some backs are going to give different styles of players and defenses a harder time than others.  

Sorry to turn a perfectly good OT thread into football...

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Ty Butterfield

August 26th, 2015 at 11:06 PM ^

I have always believed in the "hot hand" and luck. Seems like Staee has been riding a lucky streak for awhile. Time for Harbaugh to put an end to this crap.

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trueblueintexas

August 26th, 2015 at 11:18 PM ^

To me it's pretty simple and can actually be explained. When playing sports you try to repeat a motion and move through different periods of focus. There will be times you get really focused and also feel the perfection of a repeated movement. You then repeat that perfected movement as many times as possible in a row while maintaining focus. Boom, your hot streak. Then, you either lose some focus or you change something which prevents you from repeating the perfect motion. End of hot streak. I have had this happen many times playing basketball. I'm playing, I suddenly repeat the perfect form on a three and I come down the next few times and try to repeat that feeling. Now the defender is lunging out so I take it to the hole. Suddenly I've made 3-4 shots in a row when prior I was shooting 50%. Then I get a little over confident and instead of focusing on the perfect motion and set up I take an unbalanced shot asuming it will go in no matter what. Clang. Now I'm a little pissed and try again. Suddenly I've missed two in a row. The defender starts to slack off again and I can't take him off the dribble as easy so I force it. Now I've missed three in a row. End of hot streak. For all the statisticians screaming, I'll play you one-one to prove it.

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laninjafork

August 27th, 2015 at 1:19 AM ^

This makes a lot of sense. And then high level athletes are so in tune with their bodies that replicating this motion comes easier. Cool story bro example: I bowled on a lane next to spike and co. about a year ago. Dude bowled something like a 260 his second game. He claimed to have never bowled anywhere close to that well ever in his life. Once he got in the rhythm and was able to replicate the body movement that led to a desirable result he lit up. It was one of the most surreal nights of my life watching him roll this amazing game while dakich cheered him on in full dakich hype man fashion, it rivaled the movie Kingpin for most intensity/investment in watching a round of bowling that I've ever felt. But it makes sense that once someone with that kind of athletic ability gets in the zone with physical movement that they're able to replicate it over and over. And in bowling you don't even have defenders in your face, it's the same set up over and over and consistent performance breeds consistent results.

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snarling wolverine

August 27th, 2015 at 10:36 AM ^

I never understood how people could follow basketball and deny the hot hand existed.  It's not like it takes any huge explanation; in just about any kind of job or performance, people have some days where they're more focused than usual and perform better - and others where their mind is elsewhere and they struggle.

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HollywoodHokeHogan

August 27th, 2015 at 12:35 AM ^

             There is some recent work looking at shot analytics and the difficulty of shots that supports the hot hand as well.  The gist was that past made baskets increased the odds of making  future shots once you accounting for the difficulty of the future shots.

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MichiganTeacher

August 27th, 2015 at 7:49 AM ^

Yeah, denying streak shooting or streak job performance is just silly, and it always has been. Statisticians claiming otherwise is the epitome of being blinded by expertise.

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Zarniwoop

August 27th, 2015 at 12:36 PM ^

Anyone that disputes the hot hand theory never played any type of sport (especially basketball or baseball). They are absolutely real and are entirely mental.

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