OT: Heavy betting on Lions
At BetMGM, Lions -6.5 has attracted 63% of the bets and 71% of the handle, with the moneyline (-275) bringing in 47% of the bets and 73% of the handle. At PointsBet, Detroit is taking 81% of the moneyline handle, which the sportsbook notes is by far the most of any team this weekend. ...
Michigan bettors believe the Lions can go all the way and are putting their money behind it in force. At DraftKings in Michigan, since Sunday, Detroit has been the most-bet team to win the Super Bowl by five times the handle and four times the bets of any other team; the Lions are the most-bet team to win the NFC by 10 times the handle and three times the bets.
It all adds up to huge liability on the Lions for the sportsbooks.
"The Lions drive a lot of interest from bettors in Michigan," said BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini. "Detroit playing more games is good for the sportsbook, but eventually we need the Lions to lose."
Vegas is not on our side. Hmm.
January 19th, 2024 at 9:01 PM ^
I don't know a ton about sports gambling. Is this because a lot of emotional bettors are super excited about the Lions, or because a few big money analytical bettors think Detroit is better than the spread says they are?
January 19th, 2024 at 9:06 PM ^
The article didn't say anything about sharps so I'm not sure how the "professionals" are betting. Looks like a lot of emotional betting here, especially since a lot of the action on the Lions is happening in Michigan.
One book it said did move the line down to 6, but it seems like they are banking on the Bucs to beat the spread, so that makes me kind of think the sharps are too.
As long as Detroit wins by at least 1, though, that's fine with me.
January 20th, 2024 at 7:05 AM ^
I’ve bet sports for a long time (shit I’ve done everything for a long time but that’s a different story) anyways……
One rule of thumb is whenever the pubic overloads one side of a line and you don’t see it move much then bet like hell the other way. Vegas is ok with a potentially big payout which means they don’t expect to make one.
Remember how all the money was bet on Alabama? Remember how that line never moved? Remember what happened next?
I really hope the Lions win but my money is going to be on Tampa Bay plus the points. Probably will drop a few bucks too on the over, that looks insanely low to me at 43.5.
January 20th, 2024 at 7:14 AM ^
it would seem vegas would want to raise the line in that instance to staunch the flow of detroit money and increase the flow of tampa money from guys like you - thus laying off their risk at least a little bit.
January 20th, 2024 at 7:55 AM ^
FWIW my lawyer, farmer, friend if they leave the line in place despite an overload on one side it’s because they think they’re about to make a LOT of money.
They don’t want to hedge, they think the Lions are not going to cover the -6.5 line and are expecting a big payday, just like the got from the Rose Bowl bettors.
Not saying they’re going to lose but they do think the game will be close.
January 20th, 2024 at 8:13 AM ^
understood, but vegas is the ultimate hard money numbers analysis, the exact opposite of the 'feels'. they could care less who wins. they want to lay off the risk and collect the vig. as a lions fan i choose to believe that vegas is certain of a lions win, just like i keep saying harbaugh is staying. with the appropriate blinders on, i am able to make-believe nearly anything. for instance, i also believe in santa.
also, since you were raised a lions fan, you betting against your old team is greg mattison level turn-coat. besides, any money you put on tampa could hinder your ability to pay me, so spend wisely....
January 20th, 2024 at 8:27 AM ^
Betting against the team I'm rooting for is my favorite bet. If they win, great, if not, I can buy some beer to console myself.
January 20th, 2024 at 8:39 AM ^
The happiness hedge. But in this case, you can bet on Tampa to beat the spread and still have Detroit win the game, so it's not even really betting against Detroit.
January 20th, 2024 at 8:53 AM ^
"with the appropriate blinders on, i am able to make-believe nearly anything. "
Been using that a lot lately. All these women are smiling at ME, like I'm Brad Pitt. When in reality, they are looking with approval at my MICHIGAN vs EVERYBODY hat.
January 20th, 2024 at 9:24 AM ^
i found brad pitt's account. i never knew he (you) was a michigan fan. cool.
January 20th, 2024 at 9:15 AM ^
You're incorrect in this case.
In most cases Vegas has done the analysis and tries to make money on the vig to attract money on both sides. The line is set separately from the model. If their model is saying the 80% range of outcomes is Detroit +1 to Detroit -4 and money keeps coming in at Detroit -6.5 they can choose to keep the line steady and eventually develop a position.
As Mgrowold pointed out, this is exactly what happened to the Alabama game. Bets were running 60-70% on Alabama cover or Alabama moneyline and the line stubbornly did not move. Large amounts of sharp money came in all on Michigan in the 24 hours before kickoff which actually caused the line to move the other way but it looked like it was still a 55-45 Alabama-Michigan split. Books made a ton of money that day.
January 20th, 2024 at 12:39 PM ^
> they want to lay off the risk and collect the vig
That's how betting at the horse races work. It's not how Vegas sportsbooks work. They make the best guess they can of what the score will be, based on hard numbers and analytics, and then if the public wants to make dumb bets, vegas will take them all day long.
They minimize risks by offering bets across many different sports all year long, they don't need to hedge out any specific game.
January 20th, 2024 at 9:32 AM ^
I'm definitely taking the Tampa and the points. They are better than people give them credit for and the Lions play inconsistent. I expect a close game that could come down to the last possession.
January 20th, 2024 at 1:12 PM ^
The article said they the Lions to win one more and then lose. I would avoid betting on TB to beat Detroit. Sounds like they want Detroit to fall in the NFC championship game.
January 20th, 2024 at 11:42 PM ^
Both.
January 19th, 2024 at 9:19 PM ^
Are they also betting that secondary might just give up record yards this weekend? Because my goodness are they bad. The hype for Detroit is insane
January 20th, 2024 at 3:26 AM ^
Every one of the WR that had record days against us, those teams are 1-4 against us. It may not be pretty, but what AG is doing is effective.
January 20th, 2024 at 9:42 AM ^
Ok I can’t take that map seriously. They think Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado are buffalo fans…talk about missing the context :)
January 19th, 2024 at 9:49 PM ^
In the last 11 days, Michigan has won a national championship, the Fab 5 were at Crisler together for the first time in 30 years for a win over OSU, and the Lions are drawing money as a Super Bowl favorite. What an amazing start to 2024.
January 19th, 2024 at 10:07 PM ^
did anyone else see 'heavy petting', and think we were in middle school sex-ed class?
no? just me? sorry.
fired up about the lions. really think they will beat the bucs.
January 20th, 2024 at 6:12 AM ^
Not recommended by Michael Schenker and company
January 20th, 2024 at 1:24 PM ^
Even though I'm a skull, that's what I saw first as well.
January 20th, 2024 at 1:45 PM ^
But your are a gifted skull, and an Mgofavorite
January 19th, 2024 at 10:12 PM ^
Sounds like the rich guys want Detroit to win one more game to really empty out the pockets of Michiganders hoping they’ll either win the NFC and/or the Super Bowl.
”Detroit playing more games is good for the sportsbook, but eventually we need the Lions to lose”
January 19th, 2024 at 10:18 PM ^
So what kind of odds are they giving on the Lions losing on a controversial penalty?
January 20th, 2024 at 2:12 AM ^
That is a 3 times a season lock of the year!
January 19th, 2024 at 10:23 PM ^
we are going to beat tampa on sunday
January 19th, 2024 at 10:33 PM ^
More are betting on Lions over SF ? That's nuts. And I might be going to the NFC title game if it happens.
January 19th, 2024 at 10:54 PM ^
As Lions season ticket holder who technically lives in California I can say with 100% certainty I will be at the NFC Championship game if we play regardless of where.
January 19th, 2024 at 11:08 PM ^
same. got two calls on monday, within about an hour of each other, inviting me to the game. one in SF, one downstate in detroit. all i need is for the lions to win.
January 20th, 2024 at 1:14 PM ^
Enjoy that Florida weather as you watch GB trounce Baker. S\
January 19th, 2024 at 11:19 PM ^
My $8 on the Lions -6.5 is helping to drive this news. Well, I actually bought the 1/2 point hook so I have the Lions -6.
January 20th, 2024 at 2:13 AM ^
Easy big DB. You throwing in all the chips!
January 20th, 2024 at 6:18 AM ^
Just think about what would’ve happened if you put $10 down
January 20th, 2024 at 8:26 AM ^
With that kind of confidence, I AM IN! GO LIONS, BABY!
January 20th, 2024 at 2:17 PM ^
LETS FUCKING GOOOOO!!!