OT: 66% of NCAA Power 5 Conference HC Jobs have Turned over in 4 Years
Quite amazing turnover when you think about it - in one presidential cycle half a decade 66% of Power 5 jobs have turned over. 42 of 64 jobs.
Which is why if you are a Les Miles or Jim Harbaugh proponent and he stays "only" 6 years it wouldn't be so bad, he'd be in the upper 33% percentile for duration.
Even if you just go back just 3 seasons coached it is 36 of 64 (56%) jobs turned over. That's astounding.
The Pac 12 has been hit ridiculously hard only 1 coach have lasted 5+ years and that coach's team, Utah, was not in the Pac 12 five years ago.
The Big 12 has been the only relatively stable conference.
ACC - 8 of 14 (57%)
- FSU
- Clemson
- Louisville - 2013
- BC - 2012
- NC State - 2012
- Wake Forest - 2013
- Syracuse - 2012
- GA Tech
- Duke
- NC - 2011
- Pitt - 2011
- Miami Fl - 2010
- VA Tech
- VA
Big 10 - 11 of 14 (79%)
- OSU - 2011
- UM - 2014, 2010
- MSU
- MD - 2010
- Rutgers - 2011
- PSU - 2013
- Indiana - 2010
- Wis - 2014, 2012
- MN - 2010
- Neb - 2014
- Iowa
- ILL - 2011
- Purdue - 2012
- NW
Pac 12 - 11 of 12 (92%)
- Oregon - 2012
- Stanford - 2010
- WA - 2013
- WA State - 2011
- Cal - 2012
- Oregon State - 2014
- AZ - 2011
- AZ State - 2011
- UCLA - 2011
- USC - 2013
- Utah
- CO - 2012
SEC - 8 of 14 (57%)
- MO
- GA
- UF - 2014
- SC
- TN - 2012
- UK - 2012
- Vanderbilt - 2013
- Bama
- MSU
- Ole Miss - 2011
- LSU
- Auburn - 2012
- A&M - 2011
- Arkansas - 2012
Big 12 - 4 of 10 (40%)
- Texas - 2013
- Oklahoma
- Baylor
- TCU
- KSU
- WVA - 2010
- OK State
- Texas Tech - 2012
- Kansas - 2014
- Iowa State
December 10th, 2014 at 10:35 PM ^
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December 10th, 2014 at 10:56 PM ^
I used first season (Jimbo was 2010)
via Wiki
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_NCAA_Division_I_FBS_footba…
The years above are sort of the "replacement year" so it is a bit confusing. i.e. Hoke was replaced in Jan 2011, other coaches in that cycle were replaced in December 2010 but they all had their first year in 2011. So I listed all the "Hoke year" guys as 2010 changes as most were hired before Jan 1. Jimbo coached in 2010.
But actually now that I think about it - I'm off by a year, anyone who was hired in late 2010 or early 2011 has only been coaching 4 years or less - so it is 66% in 4 years (not 5) using that methodology. Will edit.
December 10th, 2014 at 10:36 PM ^
Turning in a lot of quality work here latley alum96! Thanks for your hard work. Interesting stuff.
December 10th, 2014 at 10:37 PM ^
Good stuff. This kind of confirms what I've been thinking for awhile. When people say they want a coach to come in for 10-15 years and stabilize the program, that seems sort of nuts. It just doesn't happen that way anymore. And the same thing applies with Average Joe in the workforce. People rarely stay in one spot for more than 3-5 years these days.
December 10th, 2014 at 11:02 PM ^
Yes the 3 year stat astounds me even more - 56% of coaches were not there 4 seasons ago.
Only 22 guys out of 64 (34%) have made it to a 5th year with their team. The Feretnz, Stoops, Beamer class is a dying breed. Guy like Miles at 10 years at one place is now an exception, not rule.
December 11th, 2014 at 4:42 AM ^
well, let's put some of this in context. From 1981 to 1984, in the B1G, you had:
Ohio State
Michigan
Iowa
Illinois
Wisconsin
Northwestern
Minnesota - 1984
Michigan State - 1983
Purdue - 1982
Indiana - 1983, 1984
In the SEC:
Georgia
Tennessee
Mississippi State
Auburn
Kentucky
Vanderbilt
Florida (fired their coach during 1984 season)
LSU - 1984
Ole Miss - 1983
Alabama - 1983
In the Pac-10:
Washington
Arizona State
UCLA
Arizona
Washington State
Oregon
Oregon State
USC - 1983
Stanford - 1984
Cal - 1982
In the ACC:
North Carolina
Clemson
Wake Forest
Maryland - 1982
Duke - 1983
NCSU - 1983
Virginia - 1982
In the Big 8:
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Mizzou
KSU
Oklahoma State - 1984
Iowa State - 1983
Kansas - 1983
Colorado - 1982
And in the SWC:
Houston
Texas
Baylor
Texas Tech
SMU - 1982
Arkansas - 1984
A&M - 1982
TCU - 1983
Rice - 1984
So what's the takeaway? Yes,there was alot more stability 30 years ago, but notice what this means in real terms... Jerry Moore's Texas Tech teams never won more than 3 games in this stretch, ditto Dennis Green at Northwestern. Vandy and KSU stuck with coaches whose winning percentages were under .300 for that entire stretch. It's not that there's no such thing as stability anymore, it's that the bottom feeders of the P5 are no longer content to spend year after year losing 9 games.
December 10th, 2014 at 10:37 PM ^
Do us and Wisconsin get bonus points for having two over the last five years?
December 10th, 2014 at 10:47 PM ^
December 11th, 2014 at 12:18 AM ^
I imeadeatly had to reply to this for posterity's sake.
December 11th, 2014 at 7:49 AM ^
December 10th, 2014 at 10:52 PM ^
Maybe this is stupid turnover- the bolded higher turnover teams have the most losses for the most part (which is why they are firing coaches) but it doesn't really seem to change their fortunes much.
There is something to be said about consistency- not everybody can be a top contender but you can have a good program that is stable. I really think colleges don't get anything by paying big bucks for a new coach- there aren't that many Sabans out there. Not everyone can become a National Champ.
Colleges could save a lot of money by hiring a cheaper up and coming coach from the lower ranks. Often they produce results as good as or better than the so called "big name" hire.
I think Nebraska will regret their move.
December 11th, 2014 at 12:00 AM ^
Wouldn't they have 2 turnovers during this period? How long was O'Brien at PSU?
December 11th, 2014 at 1:50 AM ^
December 11th, 2014 at 6:48 AM ^
It would be interesting to develop a chart of average tenure for Power 5 coaches over the last 30 years or so just to see visually the change in behavior of programs over time. It seems like years ago a fair number of coaches spent a long time at "meh" programs and now there is considerably more discontent shown when such situations are allowed to continue. Everyone now is trying to be more than what they are and the playoff format will probably encourage a little more "win now" behavior.
December 11th, 2014 at 7:56 AM ^
December 11th, 2014 at 8:23 AM ^
I think this is important. Coming from our experience at Michigan, this turnover seems ridiculous. Even at some of the more traditionally stable programs, having 3 coaches over nearly 40 years is not the norm.
December 11th, 2014 at 8:09 AM ^
The escalating salaries bring escalating expectations. Or is it the other way around?
December 11th, 2014 at 9:45 AM ^
Sumlin was hired after their last game in 2011, but Texas A&M was still competing in the Big 12 in other sports. I'm just thinking that the coaching change would've happened regardless of conference so the Big 12 should get credit for the change.
December 11th, 2014 at 10:04 AM ^
I think they have had 2 coaching changes over this period. Stewart took over after RR and then Holgerson (sp?) replaced Stewart.
December 11th, 2014 at 11:03 AM ^
Frank Beamer has been at Va Tech since 1987.
The next in the longevity game are Bob Stoops (hired 12/1/1998) and Kirk Ferentz (hired the day after Stoops). Gary Patterson was elevated to head coach of TCU when Dennis Franchione left for Alabama after the 1999 season.
Those are the only four head coaches in D-I who were leading their current teams at the start of the 2000 seaon.