Opening Spreads for B1G
Here's where the spreads are currently at for next week's slate of bigger B1G games:
Iowa @ Michigan (-5)
MSU @ OSU (-20)
Purdue @ Penn State (-24)
Northwestern @ Nebraska (-6.5)
Interesting trends going on as 75% of public money going to Iowa early so that line will likely go down. Also tons of public money on OSU to cover that 20-point spread so get that one early if you believe MSU will turn the game into a slog.
September 30th, 2019 at 9:35 AM ^
I'm surprised we're favorites
September 30th, 2019 at 9:44 AM ^
Everyone says an exuberant fan base doesn't move the line, but I don't believe that at all.
September 30th, 2019 at 9:56 AM ^
If you're implying that Michigan is an exuberant fan base at the moment, I'm going to have to LOL and be on my way.
September 30th, 2019 at 10:36 AM ^
Well then bet against Michigan every time just before kickoff, and come back and give us an update when you’re rich.
September 30th, 2019 at 9:47 AM ^
I'm not. Road Iowa is not Kinnick Iowa. They beat MTSU worse than we did, but we scored a bunch more than they did against Rutger. Line seems reasonable.
September 30th, 2019 at 10:13 AM ^
And we got the Rutger coach fired, too.
September 30th, 2019 at 10:14 AM ^
I'm not really. Under Harbaugh, we've done well at home. Iowa has played Miami (OH), Rutgers, Iowa State, and MTSU.
Their opponents are 113th, 97th, 24th, and 115th in SP+, respectively.
So their win @ISU does stick out - but they did let up 418 yards while gaining 313 themselves. It took Iowa 76 plays to get there (4.1 YPP) and it only took ISU 55 plays to get where they ended up (7.6 YPP), so ISU was 3.5 yards better per play than Iowa.
September 30th, 2019 at 10:28 AM ^
That is peak Kirk Ferentz to get outgained nearly 2:1 on a per-play basis and still win.
September 30th, 2019 at 9:43 AM ^
Can you help me understand what the above means please
If 75% of public money is going to Iowa, and that's reflected in the -5 line, then why do you expect it to go down? That means the sharps will come in and play Michigan? But wouldn't that move the line more in Michigan's favor
September 30th, 2019 at 9:46 AM ^
5 is what it is with 75% of money going to Iowa. So they will move that down to the 3-4 range to get more money going to Michigan. A smaller spread means it's easier for the favorite (Michigan in this case) to cover.
The line might move back up right before the game starts as the sharps come in late and bet Michigan once the line is down to 3-4. But it would go down first before that happens.
September 30th, 2019 at 9:54 AM ^
OK, thank you. This is why these things confuse me, but I like to learn about it: I heard on VSIN this morning that OSU/MSU opened at -17.5, but immediately jumped to -20. In the context of what you're saying above, I assume that meant public money went to OSU, and in order to entice more money to MSU, they'd have to give them more points, which they did by increasing the spread to 20.
I assumed the same logic applied for M/Iowa. Is that -5 the opening line? If all of the public money went to Iowa, I assume that the line must have started higher, like -6.5 or something, so that in order to get more money on Michigan, they'd "give" them more points by reducing the line.
September 30th, 2019 at 4:36 PM ^
Public money doesnt move pointspreads, sharp money does
September 30th, 2019 at 9:57 AM ^
The line opened at -7, not -5. The -5 is a 2-point move already reflecting the heavier $$ on Iowa.
September 30th, 2019 at 9:58 AM ^
Ah, now that makes sense
But isn't this, for lack of a better term, "dumb" fan money? IOWs, not sharps? When do sharps put their bets down? I know they don't want to lock up their money even for several days, but if they see a line move by a couple of points, wouldn't they jump in right away? Isn't that worth locking up their money for several days.
So if the line opened at -7, then dumb money bid it down to -5, I'd think if sharps liked Michigan at -7 they'd take that even on a Monday. Or maybe they wait to see how low the public takes it.
September 30th, 2019 at 10:09 AM ^
Sharps will be any day, if they see a line they like. They just care about the number.
September 30th, 2019 at 10:19 AM ^
See, now that makes sense to me. I don't know why'd they wait a few days, again unless they have a model that predicts where the public money is going to go, and will wait until that's exhausted before jumping in. So if the line opens at -7, then the public takes it to -5, but the sharps have a model that predicts the public will take it to -3 by X day, then I can see them waiting.
Otherwise, the line moving from -7 to -5 seems like public money and sharps alike. That would really just mean the opening line was overstated at -7.
September 30th, 2019 at 9:49 AM ^
I would have had our line at even. Not sure how three bad games and one good game gets us -5 against a solid Iowa team.
September 30th, 2019 at 10:40 AM ^
Home makes a big difference and Iowa proved against ISU they are not great. They are solid but cripes, a solid MI game and MI should win by 7-10. Definitely lower scoring game - maybe 20-13ish.
September 30th, 2019 at 9:53 AM ^
purdue is due to purdue the fighting franklins.
September 30th, 2019 at 9:57 AM ^
If the pass game and pass protection has indeed turned a corner then I think UM can cover in the win. If it was just a Rutger thing, I think maybe Iowa wins.
September 30th, 2019 at 9:59 AM ^
Take Iowa-they will win the game and the points are a bonus.
September 30th, 2019 at 10:14 AM ^
so, when Michigan wins, are you going to admit you were wrong and fuck off?
I mean, I already know the answer to that (anyone who takes time to troll a rivals board has issues) but .....
September 30th, 2019 at 10:51 AM ^
Michigan may well lose this game but it doesn’t make Jon G. any less of a troll.
September 30th, 2019 at 10:01 AM ^
Need to check the weather, but I kind of like OSU at home with that spread. The beat MSU by 20 last year at state, and by 40+ the year before. I’m thinking that 20 point line is some nostalgia for MSU/OSU slugfests of ~5 years ago. I think those days have passed. How is MSU going to score?
September 30th, 2019 at 11:09 AM ^
NOAA's current Ann Arbor forecast is:
- Saturday - Mostly sunny, with a high near 61, light breezes at 2-7mps.
September 30th, 2019 at 1:01 PM ^
Agree. MSU’s only chance to keep up is a lot of passing and I expect OSU to hammer Lewerke. OSU’s O is rolling with both pass and run - MSU will commit to stop the run and likely get obliterated by the pass. Plus, I don’t think Day has any nostalgia for Dantonio and he’s on a mission to get into the playoffs.
September 30th, 2019 at 10:10 AM ^
I'll take Michigan, OSU, Purdue and NW
September 30th, 2019 at 10:42 AM ^
Agree with exception of Purdue - they are plain bad and they have key injuries to boot.
NW/NE is a toss-up on my mind. So yeah, NW and the points should be a good bet.
September 30th, 2019 at 10:54 AM ^
Seconded on Purdue. Penn State is going to give them another Marylanding.
They lost Elijah Sindelar and Rondale Moore on the same play. I don't know if there is an Angry {insert name here} Hating God that covers that kind of misfortune.
September 30th, 2019 at 12:53 PM ^
I don’t get NW, I took them 2 weeks ago as a home dog @-9.5 to Sparty and they get boat raced. Then they travel to Wisconsin and are a couple plays away from winning that game. Wtf?
September 30th, 2019 at 10:10 AM ^
From what I've read, it's a misconception that the bookmakers want money 50/50. They're fine with having a 75/25 split, if the 25% is the "sharp" side.
September 30th, 2019 at 10:45 AM ^
That might explain another thing that confuses: from time to time I hear that Vegas took a bath on such and such game. My first thought it is how did that happen - they set the lines to get money at 50/50, they just want the vig. I always assumed they failed to set the line properly to get the 50/50 split, but they way those conversations went, that didn't seem to be what they were saying. It seemed like Vegas took a position on a game and lost big. You can't do that if the money is split 50/50 (again, unless they just failed to get 50/50)
September 30th, 2019 at 10:38 AM ^
There is a misconception among the non-educated (re: gambling) public that the point spread is a prediction of a result. It is not. The point spread is based upon the goal of the sportsbook or bookie to get the same amount of money bet on both sides so that the book profits by the 10% vig.
Therefore, teams with large fan bases such as Michigan, Ohio State, Notre Dame, etc. will always have lines that tilt in their favor because believe it or not, many fans just like to bet on their favorite teams each week.
The lines move when a disproportionate amount of money is bet on one side. The line moves to encourage players to bet the other way. So, for example, if a lot more money is being bet on Ohio State -20, the book will move the line higher to encourage action on the Spartans.
September 30th, 2019 at 10:52 AM ^
This gets brought up in every thread, and it doesn't make logical sense. It's not a question of people being uneducated, it's a case of people considering the facts. The largest one is that sharps have access to huge sums of money, and if the public (including large fan bases) moves the line too far in their own teams favor, they'll lay on the other side.
Let's take this game as one extremely small sample, and test your logic: you're saying Michigan fans love their team and are putting their money on Michigan, which artificially moves the line in M's favor. Throw out all of the normal reasons you'd believe that to be true for a moment, and consider: have you actually talked to a Michigan fan lately? The entire Michigan fan universe is down on the team. No fans are betting on Michigan. I mean look at this thread.
September 30th, 2019 at 1:16 PM ^
An excellent post above. The only thing to be wary of is "reverse line movement". It's not hard to find the percentage of money bet on each side, and if the line moves contrary to what the percentages suggest -- for example 75% of money on team A and the line moves from team A -6 to team A -5.5 -- then you have an RLM situation.
Often, this happens because the sharps have bet the OTHER side, but not always. There may be other factors to cause this, so it's a tough situation to deal with. If you can find situations where RLM is generally predictive of the sharps betting against the public, then this is a good thing. For example, it may happen often at a certain book.
It's one of the things that makes it difficult to bet based on line movement alone.
September 30th, 2019 at 11:10 AM ^
Wouldn't it be better to wait on MSU if the public money is set to push that spread higher?
September 30th, 2019 at 1:07 PM ^
It definitely would, if that's what you expect to happen. If you are worried about the number, then you have to keep a close eye on it. Easier with the internet, for sure.
September 30th, 2019 at 1:06 PM ^
Like most of our games in recent memory, it comes down to what they decide to do. Pass first, especially quick passes with the efficiency they showed on Saturday? A quick first score to get ahead? Then we're in good shape.
Try to establish the run first = death in this game. Iowa is stout.
September 30th, 2019 at 3:28 PM ^
Interesting trends going on as 75% of public money going to Iowa early so that line will likely go down
The public is being dumb here. We're a good home team under Harbaugh and Iowa is a mediocre road team under Ferentz. (The two programs are very similar in this regard.) They're letting the recency effect blind them.
September 30th, 2019 at 9:43 PM ^
Okay, count me in with the uneducated public. I like Michigan to win and win by a couple of scores, but I still want the lowest possible line (or a better price if I tease the line up a point or so). Are we expecting the spread to go up or down? Also does anyone know if the sportsbook at Hollywood casino in Indiana takes single game, college football wagers? I heard it was only pro sports wagers and I can’t find anything online about it. - also I’m like 0-8 betting on Michigan, so I’m due for a win, right? Just keep doubling your bet until you win (or until you’re broke).