One fan's look back at this year's schedule
A new light shed on the Wolverines season as of NYE? What a strange, strange year if you look back at the schedule, especially after the Big Ten shows up BIG at bowl time. Just when you think there is some parity in college football, look at the W & L numbers of Michigan opponents in 2017.
No matter if you thought 8-4 was a major disappointment or not, it all may look a little different now. I considered it a mild disappointment, primarily the loss to MSU, but overall thought Michigan was a pretty decent team considering Big Ten rules apparently don’t provide for protection of Michigan QB’s after they get rid of the football or are sitting on the ground already. Having a full strength Wilton or Peters changes everything.
The teams Michigan beat this year are now a combined 38-58. Yuck.
Michigan beat Florida (stinky 4-7 version), Cincinnati (4-8, beat nobody), Air Force (5-7 but did beat Utah St), a decent Purdue team (7-6 with bowl victory, beat Mizzou, Iowa, Arizona) while losing QB #1, Indiana (5-7), Rutgers (4-8), Minnesota (5-7), and Maryland (4-8). A handful of those wins did end up coming with what we now know is at best a 3rd string Big Ten QB in O’Korn. In hindsight, he probably isn’t really a Big Ten QB at all but maybe a decent practice player.
Now, the losses. The teams that beat Michigan this year are currently 46-8! Yowza.
Michigan State (10-3), also beats Penn State and Washington St, loses to Ohio State and figures out how to lose to ND and Northwestern. They could have done better, in hindsight, and still may end up finishing ranked as high as 10 or so. A healthy Speight or a full game of solid Peters play and this is a Michigan win. Sad. This one frustrates me. The ESPN narrative at the time is that this one saved MSU’s season, and now that looks accurate.
Penn St (11-2), loses to OSU and MSU by a total of 4, soundly pummels the rest of their schedule and finishes it off with a win over a good Washington team. They will finish high in the final rankings. Hopefully we have seen the last of Saquon in college. There is no scenario involving Speight or Peters that turns this into a win, and is truly the only beat down that Michigan took in 2017.
Wisconsin (13-1!) beat a whole bunch of bowl participants. Didn’t have to play MSU or PSU. Gives OSU a decent game but is finally outclassed by better talent. I picked Miami (YTM) to beat them in their bowl, but look at that! This fanbase knows Michigan was in a dogfight at Camp Randall, and perhaps things go differently if current rules don’t allow Wisconsin to bounce Peters off the turf after he throws a pass, and force the Wolverines to return to their wholly ineffective 3rd string QB.
Ohio State (12-2) loses to Final Four participant Oklahoma, and somehow throws up their infamous stinker at Iowa, and then whines a lot about being left out of the CFP. They had their chance. The godforsaken Buckeyes still beat PSU, MSU, Michigan, Wisconsin, and then finishes the season off with a beat down of USC. Think about that lineup for a second. I watched from the end zone as OSU had to really work to win over a Michigan team that was forced to go to their aforementioned ineffective 3rd string QB. We would all agree this one could have been different with just some healthy QBs. Injuries happen in football, sure, but just Wilton or Peters could have changed everything that day.
Michigan needs to deliver a beat down to South Carolina on Monday. The Wolverines beat nearly all of the teams they should have beat, with the exception of MSU. We should have won that one. Michigan puts up a good fight against OSU and Wisconsin, and simply has to live with the business end of a fair and square rout against PSU. We win just that very winnable MSU game, and the record against those teams becomes 47-62, with the record of the teams beating Michigan going to 36-5. Ouch.
December 31st, 2017 at 11:44 AM ^
December 31st, 2017 at 12:15 PM ^
December 31st, 2017 at 12:56 PM ^
December 31st, 2017 at 11:45 AM ^
RETROACTIVELY DEFEATED WITH DIGNITY!
December 31st, 2017 at 11:49 AM ^
December 31st, 2017 at 11:56 AM ^
I like our coaches...just looking forward to piles of talent and depth. I know it takes time..but we have to find a way.
It’s getting old making excuses.
December 31st, 2017 at 11:59 AM ^
December 31st, 2017 at 11:51 AM ^
@ Notre Dame (likely to be in top 15)
@ MSU (likely to be in top 15)
@ OSU (likely to be in top 5)
@ Northwestern (likely to be in top 25)
vs Wisconsin (likely to be in top 15)
vs Penn State (likely to be in top 10)
vs Nebraska with Scott Frost
This is a schedule that Harbaugh can get behind. He’s all about competition and used to the NFL grind every week. It will certainly be that in 2018.
December 31st, 2017 at 11:57 AM ^
December 31st, 2017 at 12:06 PM ^
December 31st, 2017 at 4:41 PM ^
December 31st, 2017 at 5:30 PM ^
Go back and look at some of those Michigan schedules in the 90's
December 31st, 2017 at 11:58 AM ^
I don’t really care that it makes our schedule harder, but I have family who went to Purdue and Indiana and like the family rivalry thing. So I am honestly curious about how it works and don’t have any sense of how often we should be playing teams besides Wisconsin.
December 31st, 2017 at 12:01 PM ^
December 31st, 2017 at 12:50 PM ^
Among other things, yes...
December 31st, 2017 at 1:05 PM ^
December 31st, 2017 at 1:29 PM ^
Dave Brandon being a total cock is what attracted his ire however.
December 31st, 2017 at 3:05 PM ^
Yes he is. Good thing its going to backfire on him just like every decision he ever makes to try and screw Michigan over.
December 31st, 2017 at 12:33 PM ^
December 31st, 2017 at 12:00 PM ^
Defense will be elite
December 31st, 2017 at 5:29 PM ^
December 31st, 2017 at 12:07 PM ^
December 31st, 2017 at 12:42 PM ^
playing Mercer when they have an open date this late in the season and not many P5 or most FBS teams have it? Not on Bama for it. They scheduled FSU when most thought they're a national title contender. Fresno State and Colorado State went bowling this season. Is it any different than any team scheduling cupcakes? Is it because they scheduled them this late in the season?
December 31st, 2017 at 1:22 PM ^
It may be smart but it does make me less interested in licking their boots. They are a great program but they are a great program that does not seek to stretch themselves if it might reduce their chance at a playoff berth.
December 31st, 2017 at 12:27 PM ^
The biggest deal is when we play each game. If there are breathers built in at the right times, we'll be fine. The meat of it is October 13 and 20, Wisconsin then Michigan State. But Maryland at home the week before should be good tonic. I think the schedule is laid out about as favorably as one with that many good opponents could be.
2018
Sept. 1 -- at Notre Dame
Sept. 8 -- Western Michigan
Sept. 15 -- Southern Methodist
Sept. 22 -- Nebraska*
Sept. 29 -- at Northwestern*
Oct. 6 -- Maryland* (Homecoming)
Oct. 13 -- Wisconsin*
Oct. 20 -- at Michigan State*
Oct. 27 -- Bye Week
Nov. 3 -- Penn State*
Nov. 10 -- at Rutgers*
Nov. 17 -- Indiana*
Nov. 24 -- at Ohio State*
December 31st, 2017 at 12:38 PM ^
December 31st, 2017 at 12:47 PM ^
To think UM will go 5-1 against ranked competition (or 7-1 if Nebraska is ranked) is a stretch.
There are a lot of tough games on that list but as mentioned above there a good "breaks" before each tough stretch.
December 31st, 2017 at 4:10 PM ^
December 31st, 2017 at 4:28 PM ^
Scott Frost. Nebraska is going to out hit everyone.
December 31st, 2017 at 1:04 PM ^
Michigan state returns more than we do and it's in EL. I'm leaning towards state in that one.
OSU is out-recruiting us and looked like they had a nice QB coming up. Probably a loss in columbus.
As for the rest of those games, I don't see any reason to believe we will win all of them. Those are tough games, especially at ND to start the year with a young/new QB.
I'd love it if Harbaugh proved me wrong, but so far in his time here he has failed to do so. He's basically been an obnoxious version of Lloyd Carr, except the team makes far more mental errors than any Carr team ever did.
December 31st, 2017 at 1:26 PM ^
Fuck off you little fucking troll.
Also, FYI, your boy Lloyd Carr had the most embarrassing loss in the history of college football & did it with one of the most talented teams in UM history. Let that sink in, Sally. Harbaugh would have easily went undefeated with that talent.
December 31st, 2017 at 1:30 PM ^
Please don't take this as disrespectful, but without Harbaugh as coach the last three years, this program is Arizona or Wake Forest.
We haven't had serious NFL talent that's been developed properly for 3 to 5 years around here since the early 2000s.
If you are saying Carr could have coached up 2015 and 16 to 10 win seasons, I can't dispute you. Carr earned the benefit of the doubt for his track record in my view.
We are not yet a program. We are becoming one. A program can lose players to graduation and not drop off the map like this year's team did. A program has class depth. A program can even go 3-9 and put the wheels back on the next year.
Let's become a full fledged program with full cycle development before we pass judgment.
And I agree with what Brian said at one point. If you don't see this three years as a vastly improved place and trajectory just on the eye test, not much can be said to persuade you.
December 31st, 2017 at 2:34 PM ^
January 2nd, 2018 at 1:29 AM ^
I think we as fans don't owe anything to Harbaugh. He must earn our respect. He hasn't done enough so far. The eye test is cool, but I like the wins test more. Harbaugh is great at hype, but we don't need hype, we need wins. I'm sorry but trips to rome aren't gonna cut it for me. We just finished 8-5 with no quality wins. Let that sink in. Does that not sound like a Brady Hoke season to you?
I think Harbaugh is an absolute dud based on these results. Now he needs to prove me wrong.
December 31st, 2017 at 1:46 PM ^
December 31st, 2017 at 3:13 PM ^
7 games against teams that were better than us this year. 3 of those are rivalry games. All 3 of those are on the road. I can't see us doing better than 9-3 overall.
December 31st, 2017 at 5:13 PM ^
Agreed.
I think the 2018 team will be better than this year's squad but the end results won't be much better. 8-4 or 9-3 looks like the most likely outcome against that schedule.
Just wait until <year +1>, though...
December 31st, 2017 at 3:37 PM ^
All those fanbases are looking at their schedules saying we have to play Michigan with a QB and that D
December 31st, 2017 at 5:06 PM ^
December 31st, 2017 at 11:54 AM ^
December 31st, 2017 at 12:14 PM ^
December 31st, 2017 at 3:15 PM ^
I felt like we had a good chance to win this game til seeing every other B1G team won. Pretty sure this is a set-up to be further mocked by every other B1G team.
December 31st, 2017 at 1:14 PM ^
Thinking you mean College Park. College Station is A&M, College Park is Maryland.
December 31st, 2017 at 11:55 AM ^
December 31st, 2017 at 12:25 PM ^
December 31st, 2017 at 1:56 PM ^
December 31st, 2017 at 2:36 PM ^
December 31st, 2017 at 6:31 PM ^
The knowledge they gain about the different teams make their analysis (and therefore the site) better. And there are some entertaining nuggets.
But on the whole, it's like sitting through a 7 hour documentary about soap-making because you know there's a really good 5 min porn scene (in 30 second clips) hidden within.
December 31st, 2017 at 12:48 PM ^
MSU returns 20 starters i think.
PSU returns McSorley but loses Barkley and Gisseki. OLine should be better.
OSU loses lots but replaces them with younger versions of the same players.
Wiscy is Wiscy, the lose the TE but the RB, and 2 best WR's are Freshman/Sophomores. Hornibrook is back.
Purdue is actually good again?
UMD will be good if their QB's can stay healthy.
Indiana will take a step back.
Nebraska is Frosty. 0-12 to 12-0 in 2 years is scary even at Nebraska.
NW is coming off a big win but lose the RB and the QB hurt his knee.
In short Michigan will play at least 6 ranked teams but as many as 7. (ND, NW, Wiscy, MSU, PSU, OSU and possibly Nebraska?)