Odds on some remaining Recruits & Class Size

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April 16th, 2012 at 4:43 PM
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StephenRKass
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Odds on some remaining Recruits & Class Size

We are at 17 recruits verbally committed, and are finished with the QB, OL & TE position. I'm interested in two things. First, I'd like to get a sense of the odds of the following recruits coming to Michigan. Second, with seventeen already, do we have room to take all eight below and end up with 25? I realize that the odds and the timetable are different for each recruit, and the one thing I'm sure of is that it probably won't be exactly these individuals who commit. However, this would be a great finish to the class, and would fill all the needs.

  1. Poggi
  2. LaCouture
  3. Treadwell
  4. Isaac
  5. Levenberry
  6. Cravens
  7. Fuller
  8. One more unidentified WR. (Allen?  Massington? LaRue?)

"It does not matter how many times you get knocked down, but how many times you get up." Vince Lombardi

 

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April 16th, 2012 at 4:48 PM |   This would not be a great (Score:5 Normal)
mgobluebraelow
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Joined: 08/20/2010
MGoPoints: 566

 

This would not be a great finish to the class.  This would be a stupid TREMENDOUS finish to the class.

Though, if we land Cravens we probably land Mathis, so I'd sub him for LaCouture.

April 17th, 2012 at 2:10 AM | I doubt Mathis qualifies  (Score:1)
gutnedawg
Joined: 12/18/2010
MGoPoints: 359

I doubt Mathis qualifies 

/°>

 

April 16th, 2012 at 4:54 PM | I would bet Bosa is a (Score:1 Normal)
coldnjl
Joined: 12/31/2009
MGoPoints: 2427

I would bet Bosa is a buckeye...No inside info

April 16th, 2012 at 4:58 PM | He's not coming here. He said (Score:5 Normal)
brandanomano
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Joined: 09/05/2009
MGoPoints: 4398

He's not coming here. He said later that it would come down to UM and OSU but was Tweeting negative things about Michigan apparently, which has Urban Meyer shadiness written all over it. He's likely going to Ohio but is trying to create drama to make it look like Urban is kicking our ass on the recruiting trail. This is pretty much speculation that was posted over on 247, but there's evidence that this very well may be the case since the Pouncey brothers did the same thing when being recruited by Florida, saying that they were lifelong FSU fans when they were Florida all the way.

Special Teams means special times!

April 16th, 2012 at 5:22 PM | I wouldn't be surprised if he (Score:2)
Elmer
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MGoPoints: 2098

I wouldn't be surprised if he stays down south.  Long time until signing day.

Not buying into the conspiracy theory.  He hasn't been an Ohio lock for months and months. 

April 16th, 2012 at 6:46 PM | It's weird because before his (Score:2)
brandanomano
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Joined: 09/05/2009
MGoPoints: 4398

It's weird because before his Ohio visit he was anti-Michigan pretty much, then after that he said it would be down to us and Ohio. I didn't think he was going to leave the south either, just passing on what I've heard.

Special Teams means special times!

April 16th, 2012 at 4:49 PM | your high (Score:-1 Trolling)
April 16th, 2012 at 4:54 PM | you're high. (Score:5 Normal)
ish
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 7682

you're high.

April 16th, 2012 at 5:01 PM | You're high. (Score:5 Normal)
hart20
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Joined: 05/25/2011
MGoPoints: 3705

You're high.

Yep, that's Simba made out of a pineapple.

April 16th, 2012 at 5:04 PM | I'm high? (Score:3 Normal)
david from wyoming
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Joined: 03/15/2009
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I'm high?

Are you a park ranger at Yellowstone? Say hi to Yogi Bear for me. - the_big_house 500th

I may not be a 70 year old man. - Herm

April 16th, 2012 at 5:10 PM | i'm freaking out man (Score:5 Normal)
TXWolverine44
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Joined: 08/29/2009
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i'm freaking out man

April 16th, 2012 at 5:18 PM | You are freaking out, man (Score:3 Normal)
Hokemania
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Joined: 03/11/2011
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Whatcha gonna do, little brother?

April 16th, 2012 at 5:25 PM | What is that taste? (Score:1)
Duck4President
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These snozberries taste like... snozberries!

April 16th, 2012 at 5:14 PM | Guilty (Score:5 Normal)
Y0ST
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Joined: 02/25/2010
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Guiltyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

"True loyalty is that quality of service that grows under adversity and expands in defeat. Any street urchin can shout applause in victory, but it takes character to stand fast in defeat. One is noise - the other, loyalty." — Yost

April 16th, 2012 at 5:26 PM | Hi they're (Score:1)
jmdblue
Joined: 12/01/2010
MGoPoints: 652

Hi they're.....They're hi     Had this written on my skis for a season (one each ski).   Confused people on the chair lift.

We're gonna play with toughness, we're gonna be responsible and we're gonna play with toughness.  This is Michigan.

April 17th, 2012 at 10:26 AM | Your highness is freaking me (Score:1)
UMgradMSUdad
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Your highness is freaking me out.

April 16th, 2012 at 5:10 PM | You're drunk! (Score:5 Normal)
ForeverBlue
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You're drunk!

April 16th, 2012 at 5:36 PM | AR (Score:3 Normal)
The Name
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MGoPoints: 535

All Arrested Development quotes get a +1 from me.

Hey Dirk Nowitzki you just won the NBA Finals, why the long face?

April 16th, 2012 at 6:06 PM | This is getting pathetic (Score:-1 Normal)
April 16th, 2012 at 5:55 PM | His high (Score:5 Normal)
Westwood
Joined: 04/23/2009
MGoPoints: 209

His high what?

April 16th, 2012 at 4:49 PM | This staff is wayy too (Score:-1 Flamebait)
April 16th, 2012 at 4:57 PM | I think this staff is more (Score:5 Normal)
MGoRyan
Joined: 08/18/2011
MGoPoints: 225

I think this staff is more outpatient, but I'm not a doctor.

April 16th, 2012 at 6:49 PM | The staff waited on a lot of (Score:2)
brandanomano
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Joined: 09/05/2009
MGoPoints: 4398

The staff waited on a lot of high profile guys last year.

Special Teams means special times!

April 16th, 2012 at 4:50 PM | That would be a great finish (Score:5 Normal)
BiSB
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MGoPoints: 27875

The odds of that are somewhere between "Cubs win the World Series" and "Cubs win the World Series"... but it would be great

They no longer call me Bisbiño

April 16th, 2012 at 4:57 PM | And won't you feel silly when (Score:5 Normal)
mgobluebraelow
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Joined: 08/20/2010
MGoPoints: 566

And won't you feel silly when the Cubs win the World Series twice this year?  That is, of course, after Fuller and Cravens commit to Michigan on the same day.

April 16th, 2012 at 4:50 PM | (issac...80% poggi....75% tre (Score:1 Normal)
donk_destroyer
Joined: 08/13/2011
MGoPoints: 188

(issac...80%
poggi....75%
treadwell and levenberry....50%
lacoutre....30%
cravens and fuller....less than 5% (and tht might b high)

They do the talkin...I do the walkin.

-Charles Woodson

April 16th, 2012 at 4:54 PM | Science? (Score:4 Normal)
Brown Bear
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Science?

I poop excellence
April 16th, 2012 at 4:56 PM | If true (Score:4 Normal)
BiSB
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MGoPoints: 27875

That would put our odds of landing all of them at slightly over 0.01%

#SoYoureSayingTheresAChance

They no longer call me Bisbiño

April 16th, 2012 at 5:02 PM | Jareth Glanda caught a (Score:5 Normal)
mgobluebraelow
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Joined: 08/20/2010
MGoPoints: 566

Jareth Glanda caught a first-down pass from Drew Dileo.  I'm pretty sure the odds of that happening, ever, were slightly under .01%.

#YesTheresAChance #WishfulThinking

April 16th, 2012 at 5:27 PM | * (Score:4 Normal)
Jivas
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Joined: 07/06/2008
MGoPoints: 2373

Assuming the outcomes are independent of one another.

Denard's 2010 was spent redefining what one man can do.

April 16th, 2012 at 5:35 PM | +1 for the Dead Prez album (Score:3 Normal)
Rico616
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Joined: 07/01/2009
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+1 for the Dead Prez album avatar. "Lets Get Free" is one of my favorite albums ever.

April 16th, 2012 at 5:20 PM | I'm no expert but Lacoture (Score:1)
madmaxweb
Joined: 02/21/2012
MGoPoints: 120

I'm no expert but Lacoture should be little higher percentage. He seems to have genuine interest and will be deciding soon. (he wants to visit AA one more time before deciding.

April 16th, 2012 at 4:53 PM | Who's Issac? (Score:0 Overrated)
April 16th, 2012 at 4:55 PM | Issac Assimov (Score:5 Normal)
Brown Bear
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Issac Assimov

I poop excellence
April 16th, 2012 at 5:14 PM | No no, Fair Isaac (Score:2)
Sopwith
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Joined: 06/29/2010
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But we call him FICO.

"You know, for a bartender/bookie, you're pretty judgmental."

April 16th, 2012 at 4:54 PM | You have 1 too many (Score:1)
MN Go Blue
Joined: 02/23/2012
MGoPoints: 223

I do not see the class being any bigger than 24 kids. 

April 16th, 2012 at 4:56 PM | I think we get Poggi and (Score:1)
ThadMattasagoblin
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Joined: 08/24/2011
MGoPoints: 2678

I think we get most of those guys with Poggi and Isaac commiting in the next coming months, but it will be a long summer and then we will get the rest in the fall.

903 wins most in college football

April 16th, 2012 at 4:57 PM | I'd put my money on Alabama (Score:1)
ThadMattasagoblin
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Joined: 08/24/2011
MGoPoints: 2678

I'd put my money on Alabama for Bosa.

903 wins most in college football

April 16th, 2012 at 5:21 PM | better than ohio. (Score:2)
ish
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 7682

better than ohio.

April 16th, 2012 at 4:59 PM | We still have 10 months (and (Score:3 Normal)
I Miss Bursley
Joined: 01/04/2009
MGoPoints: 396

We still have 10 months (and one HS football season) till signing day. Odds are some of our future favorite recruits aren't on the radar yet.

April 16th, 2012 at 5:00 PM | IMHO, players 2-5 are the (Score:1)
Danwillhor
Joined: 12/02/2008
MGoPoints: 551

IMHO, players 2-5 are the only above 50% at this moment.

Poggi is around 40%
Cravens (and Mathis for that matter) are about .001%

Another random wideout is also very likely.

lastly, could we take all 8? doubt it. depends on possible departures but as it stands now its very unlikely and should be 23-24 kids.

April 16th, 2012 at 5:01 PM | my reasonable guess (Score:1)
coldnjl
Joined: 12/31/2009
MGoPoints: 2427

I feel that one or two schollies will go to late rising prospects or one high four five star that we had no idea was interested (ala Garnett)

 

1) Isaac

2) Poggi

3) Levenberry

4) Treadwell

5) Massington or unknown WR prospect

6) Kenton Gibbs

7) unknown

April 16th, 2012 at 5:05 PM | fwiw (Score:2)
MichFan1997
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Joined: 08/04/2008
MGoPoints: 6230
On the tremendous blog, they went 70 percent for Isaac and 51 for treadwell. Said they will rate the odds, in their opinion, of defensive recruits sometime today.

Follow me on Twitter @gfraley05

April 16th, 2012 at 5:06 PM | Nice precision on their made (Score:5 Normal)
david from wyoming
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Joined: 03/15/2009
MGoPoints: 2813

Nice precision on their made up percentages!

Are you a park ranger at Yellowstone? Say hi to Yogi Bear for me. - the_big_house 500th

I may not be a 70 year old man. - Herm

April 16th, 2012 at 9:03 PM | Everyone is 50%! (Score:0 Overrated)
April 17th, 2012 at 1:31 AM | Just like there's a 50% (Score:2)
mejunglechop
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Joined: 07/09/2008
MGoPoints: 6419

Just like there's a 50% chance of the sun rising tomorrow. 

Galileo was also chastised.

April 16th, 2012 at 5:19 PM | What are the odds (Score:1)
oHOWiHATEohioSTATE
Joined: 11/22/2010
MGoPoints: 1370

of this class getting finished up by the Alabama game?

If an OSU fan divorces his wife are they still brother and sister?

April 16th, 2012 at 5:22 PM | Probably won't be finished by (Score:1)
ThadMattasagoblin
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Joined: 08/24/2011
MGoPoints: 2678

Probably won't be finished by the Alabama game if the coaches are holding out for the big fish.

903 wins most in college football

April 16th, 2012 at 9:50 PM | I hope for the big fish II (Score:1)
BlueRude
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Joined: 11/17/2011
MGoPoints: 140

I

It's cold and dark down here

April 16th, 2012 at 5:24 PM | With all the percentages thrown around, (Score:2)
Mr Miggle
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Joined: 10/07/2010
MGoPoints: 1600

I'll add my own. It's 100% that nobody knows exactly how much attrition there will be in the next 9+ months. The staff has some control over who comes back for a 5th year, but there will usually be some surprises.

Eating is murder.

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