Odds on Ahmir Mitchell's "Third UM Commit of the Week"

Submitted by alum96 on

EDIT 1 - looks like the forensic analysis of his 2 tweets indicates the 3rd commitment already happened and is of the silent type.  And it might not be announced "this week" - just that it happened "this week".

EDIT 2 - paysites seem to indicate it was Pie Young ....but is being pushed out to a later date which usually means UM is using it as a bird in hand situation... while still hunting for bigger game.

Mitchell said a few days ago he expects 3 commitments this week - so far he is 2 of 2.  Speculation odds of "3rd and unknown" commit of week below in a pool of 10 most likely candidates.  Feel free to speculate and shoot holes at theories. 

** Top probabilities? (2)

Pos Name Ntl Rnk
WR Dylan Crawford 101
PK Quinn Nordin >1000

 

  • Crawford - looooong time recruit (2014) of UM, looks like today will be last day he is enrolled in HS so to be EE he will have to declare very soon for UM or Oregon.  Said Oregon was his dream offer but didn't commit promptly when offered - a potential positive for UM. Lots of UM stuff on twitter including Fisch pic tagged to top of page. McDoom just commited to Oregon & Tristen Wallace parted ways from OSU last week and might be a wr too for Oregon. Wiltfong and Lorenz still have him crystal ball'd to UM; Ace to Oregon.  Same position goup as Mitchell so assume they keep in good contact.
  • Nordin - long assumed flip from PSU, MI kid, most think just a matter of time before he drops into class.

 

====>  I'm going with Crawford (no lemon) - assuming it's a 2016 recruit.  Maybe a Maize Kool Aid pick as it would top off a hell of a week.  Oregon landed both McDoom and a dual threat QB that Urban "cooled on" who looks to be headed to the Ducks to play wideout in past week.  So those 2 commits could mean no room for Crawford.   Last, Lorenz says Crawford is one of the quieter kids he has been around so if someone were going to commit without a pre announced hat ceremony, he sounds like one.

 

** Lesser probabilities? (8)

Pos Name Ntl Rnk
OL Terrance Davis 65
OL Jean Delance 90
TE Chase Allen 562
WR π Young 394
CB David Long (Stanford) 63
ATH Jordan Fuller 128
DB Chris Brown 717
ATH Khaleke Hudson 421

 

To keep OP short will list reasons these seem less probable in comments section.

--------------------

I've excluded Jonathan Jones (LB), Gary (DL), Lavert Hill (CB) as they seem like they will commit in January-ish.   Chris Daniels (DL) announces today but the whole world expects that to be Oklahoma.  Dontavious Jackson (LB) would be out of left field but all LB recruiting attention past 2 weeks seems to have gone to Jones and Bush.  Donald Stewart (WR) is another lower rated guy from Paramus who is set to visit in Jan - seems like a backup plan at this time however, not an immediate take.

Some speculation on Jaquan Henderson a 2017 S who is a UCLA commit and teammmate of Kurt Taylor - seems improbable Mitchell is talking about a 2017.

 
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alum96

December 18th, 2015 at 7:51 AM ^

  • Davis or Delance - with this week's 'crooting success, it looks like UM will only have room for 1.  Davis is a long time Michigan lean who was sounding less "leany" after OSU visit as he felt like he didnt receive enough attention I guess.   Delance was here last week and tweeted he'd see us again - but seems too early for Delance as LSU and TX very hot on his trail.
  • Allen - was just offered last week and most don't have him on radar as they still focus on Nauta.  If UM staff still thinks there is a chance with Nauta, would not be a committable offer this soon.
  • Young - tied to Crawford maybe.  If Crawford decides Oregon, and UM wants to fill that spot with another wr, Young is obvious choice.  South FL kid, ties to Bush. 
  • Long - Stanford commit who is supposedly 50/50.  Since he would be a flip he doesn't have an announcement date and hence would be a "surprise".
  • Fuller - long time OSU lean. NJ kid; Patridge visited last week.  Durkin / Mattison visited 2 weeks ago.  Last visit to campus was March 2015.  UM seems to be in his top 5.  Would be a shocker but geography works.
  • Hudson - position of need (S?), East-ish coast (Pitt suburb) kid, Mitchell tweeted he wanted him in the class this week.  Not on most UM fans radar.  Set to visit Jan 15. Offered Nov 2; Zordich visited Dec 6. Don't think he has ever visited campus.  No crystall ballz to UM so would be a shocker.  Twitter stalking reveals he has recently followed a host of UM 2016 recruits.  Note - VA Tech, Pitt, Wisc, and PSU (all teams with good defensive coaching minds) want him.
  • Brown - very quiet recruitment that seems to be coming down to UM v TX.  However, mid ranked recruit and you'd think UM waits to see how Long & Lavert fall first.  Teammate of Dontavious Jackson.

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Mr. Yost

December 18th, 2015 at 12:25 PM ^

Pie Young...however delaying it isn't always becuase we have a bird in the hand and coaches are delaying it.

It could also be he's delaying it so he can have some big announcement or something.

How many times do kids postpone the obvious announcement just to announce on TV or an all-star game and some beat writer breaks the "news" just to be first and everyone talks about how unfair it is to the kid and how classes the writer is?

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Yo_Blue

December 18th, 2015 at 8:06 AM ^

Love the pi symbol for Keyshawn.  Well done!  I'll take any of your guesses - keep the recruiting rolling.

EE question: don't EEs count against the previous year's quota?

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Logan

December 18th, 2015 at 9:29 AM ^

I think what the previous poster was trying to say was that up to 3 EEs can be backdated to the previous class if there were less than 25 recruits in it, so a team could take 28 in one year, everything dependent on the 85 cap. But yes, I think we can take as many EEs as we want..though doesnt JH put a limit on them, hence not allowing Reese to be one?

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amaizenblue402

December 18th, 2015 at 8:06 AM ^

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alum96

December 18th, 2015 at 8:52 AM ^

So is it "you are a silent commit but we can't accept you until we find out about Crawford...and if he says yes we can't accept your commitmment" sort of thing?  i.e. UM has the bird in hand but still wants to explore options.

Because I don't see the reasoning for Pie himself waiting another 6 weeks to say it out loud.  Guy above makes it sound like Pie initiated it by pushing it out. 

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alum96

December 18th, 2015 at 10:06 AM ^

Ok.

Confusing in light of what Ahmir tweeted yest about all 3 commiting already but things change on a moments notice.

My bet based on nothing is we are slow playing Pie and it can be frustrating for him.  So natural for friction of some sort.

Still think they want Crawford as option 1 so if he commits I dont see room for Young unless 3-ish decommits. 

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Seth

December 18th, 2015 at 12:36 PM ^

I think alum hit it right. I'm basing this on this whole triad thing seemed to start right after McDoom committed to Oregon. At that point it seemed the Ducks would take both McDoom and Crawford, so Michigan was moving on with their next target, Pie Young. For his part Pie seems like he's been a strong Michigan lean for awhile, but obviously both parties would reassess a commitment if Crawford's in the class.

So I bet with the old info Pie was set to commit this week, and with the new information he's still a "silent commitment" in that if Michigan doesn't get Crawford, Pie is coming to Michigan, and will announce it in January. Which is close enough that Amir Mitchell is convinced Pie is coming to Michigan.

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True Blue in CO

December 18th, 2015 at 8:08 AM ^

Crawford has recently connected with Peppers, Walker, and Nauta on Twitter. Coach Harbaugh just started following him as well. If he is going to be an EE and Oregon is full, he seems like he could commit soon.



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alum96

December 18th, 2015 at 8:22 AM ^

hopefully they are being snarky and wink winking with subtle language.

Latest I found on Fuller seems to be along the lines he wants to take more visits...

http://www.nj.com/rutgersfootball/index.ssf/2015/12/nj_player_of_the_ye…

http://www.cleveland.com/osu/index.ssf/2015/12/chris_ash_and_jordan_ful…

"Really, I'm just discussing things with my family and seeing what visits I'm going to take next," Fuller, the 6-2, 200-pounder told NJ.com. "That's pretty much it. We are really going to discuss it over this dead period."

Fuller just took his first official visit to Notre Dame this past weekend, but has not scheduled any others yet.

And Fuller admits that Rutgers is in the mix, as well as a handful of other programs.  "My focus has gotten smaller," said Fuller. "They change every day, pretty much. It's tough. But we're discussing between Ohio State, Penn State, Virginia Tech, Michigan and Rutgers."

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samsoccer7

December 18th, 2015 at 8:15 AM ^

Quick question, not sure where else to ask this:

Any chance that Harbaugh (the AD) is paying Partridge a ridiculous amount of money for just 1 month of being LB coach?  What if they paid him $300k to be LB coach for this month, then have him go back to being the/a recruiting coordinator?  At least he got a significant pay raise to keep him sorta happy, and he gets to continue being groomed by Harbaugh and the next DC/LB coach to eventually earn his way onto the actual coaching staff.  This could have prevented Partridge from being poached (get it?) while continuing to have him progress as a coach.  Just a thought I had and could be a reason why Partridge didn't leave, will be a short-term LB coach, and happy going back to being the/a recruiting coordinator.

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amaizenblue402

December 18th, 2015 at 8:16 AM ^

But then again, Dylan Crawford has a TON of Michigan related retweets on his twitter lately. I'm so giddy, the suspense is killing me!

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julesh

December 18th, 2015 at 8:20 AM ^

He said the third already happened - a silent commit, but didn't say we would hear who it is. We may not until signing day. I know it's unlikely, but I'm hoping it's Gary.

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