NWS Forecast: Showers and Thunderstorms Likely Saturday
... between 4 and 8. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ann+Arbor&state=MI&site=DTX&textField1=42.2754&textField2=-83.7308&e=0
How will this impact the game?
September 1st, 2011 at 5:12 PM ^
Advantage Offense
September 1st, 2011 at 7:31 PM ^
With the "offense knowing where they're going" and all that...but how many really bad weather games are barn burners, and how many are low scoring or sloppy? I don't know that at Purdue last year it made our offense look better.
September 1st, 2011 at 5:14 PM ^
It will be wet...
September 1st, 2011 at 5:31 PM ^
As an weather nerd (yes, I even took meteorology at UofM) and big Michigan football fan, I've been watching the date carefully. The forecast has gone from sunny to rain...to sun...to rain...to rain early and then sunny...and now sun early and then rain. The good news is that we have 2 more days for the pattern to change twice more.
September 1st, 2011 at 5:49 PM ^
I would hate to see lightning, but outside of that weather is irrelevant. It's a football game, the players can suck it up and so can the fans. Honestly, rain would help us more than WMU and their "high powered" passing attack. Either way, weather reports are meaningless, at least until tomorrow.
Edit: weather.com says chance of rain is 40%, and even your forecast says 60%, so it's no sure thing.
September 1st, 2011 at 5:48 PM ^
hopefully we don't get a storm like the 2006 CMU game where everyone had to evacuate.
September 1st, 2011 at 7:29 PM ^
Huddled under the boxes.
September 2nd, 2011 at 12:14 AM ^
Except everyone didn't evacuate. Most of the students stayed and band was playing during the delay. It was an enjoyable 40 minutes.
September 2nd, 2011 at 2:45 AM ^
I recall the Student Section being packed and rocking during the CMU weather delay. The band played almost the entire time and it was one of the most fun games I've ever been to.
September 1st, 2011 at 6:47 PM ^
in the second quarter. Did wonders for the against Central in 06. That one was tight before the "lightning in the area"
September 1st, 2011 at 7:56 PM ^
Rain or not Michigan is going to spank the Broncos. That said, we'll see the new power run game as promised. No dust though!
Go Blue!
September 1st, 2011 at 8:36 PM ^
As another weather nerd, it all depends on when the cold front goes through. It won't be a washout regardless but as of now, most of the activity looks to be south of 94...
September 1st, 2011 at 9:05 PM ^
Lol wut? At two days out, there is no chance of predicting a storms locations well enough to say something like "most of the activity will be south of highway XX" You would have a hard time predicting that 4 hours away from kickoff.
September 1st, 2011 at 9:38 PM ^
Um yes there is. If you want me to get real meteorological on you, I will.
September 1st, 2011 at 10:11 PM ^
Nerd fight!
I can kill a hill giant with the flick of my wrist...
September 1st, 2011 at 10:24 PM ^
Touché!
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<br>Jussayin'...the severe threat is south of 94.
September 1st, 2011 at 11:45 PM ^
Okay, I'll call you out on this. I'm a phd student in atmospheric sciences, I've been an intern for the NWS and I've been teaching college level weather course for 4 years now. Maybe I'm wrong and misread your first post, but if you think the NWS can predict the fluid dynamics that precise almost 48 hours in advance of a storm, you're nuts. If the low sets up 10 miles in a different direction, the storms will be 10 miles in a different direction. Any small change in the initial conditions of the model run would shift the center of the low by at least 10 miles. If you don't trust me, check the different models. They all show different locations for the low.
There is a 60 percent chance of rain currently after 4pm Saturday in Ann Arbor. If you try to say anything more than that, you are talking out of your ass.
September 2nd, 2011 at 12:38 AM ^
Buckeye fans are anguishing over the color of the cooler they are going to poop in. "Should we use the red Coleman or the silver Igloo? Dammit I am so confused."
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<br>One more reason why I love this board.
September 2nd, 2011 at 2:49 AM ^
BOOM MGoRoasted
September 2nd, 2011 at 2:58 AM ^
/science'd
September 2nd, 2011 at 8:07 AM ^
I too have my undergrad in Meteorology. I took my post to mean that most of the thunderstorm activity looks to be south of 94, as in the SPC has outlined areas from 94 southward into northern Ohio. I'm not doubting we won't get precipitation but I know for a fact since it's a frontal system (and not low pressure) that it won't be an all-day rain regardless. It all comes down to timing with the front and where the best set-up will be. And as of right now (and the last 3 days) it looks to be south of 94 where the most thunderstorm activity will be. As you know though, things can change. We shall see.
/nerded
September 1st, 2011 at 9:16 PM ^
that's MANBALL weather right there!
September 1st, 2011 at 10:06 PM ^
Mother Nature "get's it"
September 2nd, 2011 at 5:28 AM ^
"gets it"
/raining on your parade
September 1st, 2011 at 9:29 PM ^
I dont mind rain in september, rain in november sucks.
September 1st, 2011 at 9:31 PM ^
I find it fun to watch football in the rain, but I don't like Michigan playing in it due to increased likelihood of injuries.
September 1st, 2011 at 10:35 PM ^
I really don't mind watching in a little rain, either. I'd be much more upset if it rained before the game. Rain won't ruin a football game, but I've seen it ruin some tailgates.
September 1st, 2011 at 10:47 PM ^
I am driving all the way from Tennessee!! It better not F-in rain!!! : (
September 1st, 2011 at 10:49 PM ^
will cause us to have 2 night games in a row
September 1st, 2011 at 11:02 PM ^
"Hot and wet. That's good if you're with a lady. Bad if you're at a football game."
September 1st, 2011 at 11:40 PM ^
For you weather geeks:
AS AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF INDIVIDUAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE PATTERN HOLDS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A HEFTY AMOUNT OF RAIN. THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS INTO LATE FRI EVENING...MAINLY IF ANY SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION GETS GOING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. OTHERWISE...MAINTAINED CHC POPS AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT FRIDAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE SFC FRONT WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACHIEVING MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND CURRENT GFS PROGS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30+KTS SUGGEST THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS A POSSIBILITY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY I-94 AND SOUTH. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND UNDER DECENT SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCEOF A 120KT JET. THUS...TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS AND A SUBSEQUENT HEAVY RAIN THREAT DOES APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ZONALLY ORIENTED STALLED FRONT...PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...AND THE INCREASING LIKLIHOOD FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. OVERALL...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED TOWARD THE WET SIDE FOR THE PERIOD BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND ENDING SUNDAY MORNING...BUT DOES NOT REFLECT THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THIS PATTERN GIVEN CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES.
September 2nd, 2011 at 10:02 AM ^
The NWS lowered the rain chances during the day to 20 percent, and upped the rain chances at night to 70 percent. Obviously, a slower moving system than originally forecast. It looks like we might be just fine here -- it'll be hot, of course. NWS is saying 91 for the high.