Not overlooking WI, but regarding OSU...

Submitted by Firstbase on

...what can we learn from the OSU/Purdue game that could help us against the Bucs? I didn't see the game, or even highlights, but Purdue certainly seems to have had their number. Or did it simply come down to turnovers and a bad Pryor performance?

I don't mean to be overlooking this Sat., but I somehow think our best chance at bowl eligibility may be against OSU at home.

Any thoughts or analysis?

Thx

exmtroj re-loaded

November 11th, 2009 at 2:33 PM ^

Heart. Purdue manned up in some tough spots defensively, I wouldn't say that Pryor's mistakes were the only reason OSU lost it.

EZMIKEP

November 11th, 2009 at 2:39 PM ^

& didn't just get intimidated. We gotta try to do that. I really think we can just outscore them if we have a great day on O and some luck on D. I am hoping TP folds under pressure in a couple moments and chucks the ball up.

joeyb

November 11th, 2009 at 2:47 PM ^

First of all, you are overlooking Wisconsin. Second of all, why do you care if you are overlooking Wisconsin? I have been looking past our weekly opponents all year to our rivals. It's not like it causing our team to lose for us to speculate on future games. Only the team really needs to do the weekly focus, not the fans.

steve sharik

November 11th, 2009 at 2:43 PM ^

...both have power run games. The other power run games we have faced (MSU, Iowa), we did a solid job stopping the run. Now, we gave up big plays in the passing game, but we've done that every game. At least we stopped the run and, therefore, had a chance to win. The teams that have run the ball on us have done so with some form of spread (IU, Illinois, Purdue). So, I think we have a decent shot at Wisconsin. OSU, well, they're so much more talented, and have such an unbelievable defense, I don't know about that one.

joeyb

November 11th, 2009 at 2:50 PM ^

I agree, but I think OSU is ripe for picking. If we can stop the run game and force Pryor to throw, that has to play to our advantage.

They are coming off of what is essentially a two-week playoff for B10 championship and will probably have a hard time getting up for a team that has been struggling all year.

I won't go as far as saying that I think we WILL win, but I think it is more of a possibility than Wisconsin.

Zonereadstretch

November 11th, 2009 at 5:26 PM ^

Its Michigan vs OSU, as much as I'd love to see a let down on their end it's not going to happen. Flip the script...if we were on our way to a Big Ten Title and they were 6-5 with us coming into play do you think we'd be any less hyped to punch em in the mouths? This is the end all be all of college football despite the losing streak and these kids I feel relish the the game and challenges that come with it.

bigmc6000

November 11th, 2009 at 3:32 PM ^

I think we've got a better shot in perfect conditions because our offense does better and our D is going to give up points no matter what so whatever condition makes it easier for our offense I'm likely to go with. Remember we thought rain was going to be better for us because we run a lot against MSU, yeah, that didn't work out so well.

umjgheitma

November 11th, 2009 at 2:51 PM ^

that a decent defense in Wisconsin shut out Purdue then the next week puts up 38 on us, amazes me. I think we could have been better off putting Denard in at safety and letting him roam around spying the QB.

Marley Nowell

November 11th, 2009 at 3:00 PM ^

Pryor is going to run on us at will. LBs not staying in their gaps led to Nichols getting 75 yards on 7 carries. Pryor will easily have over 100 yards unless we can keep contain and force him to pass, like Tebow in the Capital One Bowl

Section 37

November 11th, 2009 at 3:11 PM ^

I think as weak as the secondary has been this year you still have to make Pryor throw the ball. The past 5 games he's completed just 48% compared with 58% for his first 5 games. Also half of his 54 pass completions over the past 5 games were to the same receiver (Posey) so it would appear there is a trend forming over the second half of their season.

markusr2007

November 11th, 2009 at 3:30 PM ^

OSU's Boom Herron didn't play and Brandon Saine was held in check by Purdue's defense. OSU had 2.4 ypc and Pryor was sacked 5 times for -44 yards. Pryor threw 2 pics and was 55% accurate on the day. Purdue torched OSU's secondary on 2 TD drives in the 3rd quarter.

In a nutshell, that's why OSU lost to Purdue.

Michigan will get some sacks in this game but there's nothing that leads us to believe that the UM run defense can shut down anyone, let alone Ohio State's healthy Boom Herron at tailback. Do we really have to look at the rushing stats of PSU, Illinois and Purdue vs. Michigan? I'd rather not.

Typically, the best defensive team wins this game. Ohio State once again appears to be light years ahead of Michigan in every category and at every position: DL, LB and secondary. Michigan has Brandon Graham and some promising young starters, but the Buckeye DL is arguably one of the nation's best.

Consider that OSU gave up 80 yards rushing to Purdue on the road, while Michigan gave up 127 to Purdue at home. Michigan and Ohio State did give up identical passing yardage when playing against Purdue (367). Michigan gave up 36 points. OSU gave up only 26 points.

To me, Purdue is just a horrible barometer anyway. They're 4-6 and not a good football team. A better one would be comparing OSU and Michigan games against Penn State because of the level of competition and talent on both sides of the ball. The problem with that comparison of course is that OSU blasted PSU by 17 on the road and PSU devoured Michigan by 25 pts on the road.

Ohio State's defense all season long has played pretty well, particularly against the run (2.7 ypc) and score (11 pts/game).
This is all around bad for Michigan's run-centric offense.
Michigan's defense on the other hand gives up hectares of yardage, big plays on 3rd down and cannot prevent weak sisters like Indiana, Illinois and Purdue from going over the 30 point mark.

For OSU to lose, they'd have to give Michigan tons of help. Possible, but improbable.

I have a very bad feeling about the next two games. Like meltdown bad.

There's too little to suggest that Michigan isn't on a collision course with 5-7. It's sad, but probable true.

The King of Belch

November 11th, 2009 at 3:43 PM ^

One way to beat OSU would be ball control (well, besides scoring 133 points), and we have zero ball control capability.

Plus, we could be coming in fresh off a physical beating at the hands of Wisconsin and their road-graders at OL and running back.

I just don't see OSU coming into this game being in any way "ripe" for an upset. Until proven otherwise, also, there is Tressel's track record against UM. If UM heads into that game on the heels of a stomping at the hands of the Badgers--we're looking at a result that will have us turning towards one of two directions: Lots more booze, or another game at halftime.

Beat Wisconsin, though...and something just might be up!

/Eternal Hope Factor

In reply to by The King of Belch

JC3

November 11th, 2009 at 3:46 PM ^

Seems like a reversal of roles here. Usually Markus was the optimistic one coming into the season, and the King was more of a pessimist. Lately that's changed..

What did I put in my drink this morning?

a2bluefan

November 11th, 2009 at 4:16 PM ^

Like some others (and maybe this is mostly road vs. home talking), I feel a little better about our chances against OSU than Wisconsin. Looked up some stats on the Big Ten's website, and here's one that stuck out at me:

RED ZONE OFFENSE
1. Wisconsin* - 33-35, 94.3%, 27 TDs
10. OSU - 29-39, 74.4%, 21 TDs
11. Michigan - 29-41, 70.7%, 23 TDs

*Wisconsin has only played 9 games.

steve sharik

November 11th, 2009 at 10:46 PM ^

Like:
TO Margin:
4)UW +3
11)UM -10

First Downs:
2)UW 124
9)UM 108

First Downs Allowed:
1)UW 87
8)UM 117

3rd Down Conversions:
2)UW 46.3%
6)UM 40.2%

Opponents' 3rd Down Conversions:
2)UW 31.2%
6)UM 40.0%

Scoring Offense:
2)UW 26.7 ppg
6)UM 23.8

Scoring Defense:
4)UW 22.8
11)UM 33.3

And finally, to piggyback off your stat:
RED ZONE DEFENSE G RedZone Percent TDs
4. Wisconsin........... 6 12-16 75.0 8
11.Michigan............ 6 23-24 95.8 13

All stats can be found:
http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/stats/2009-2010/confonly.html

Tater

November 11th, 2009 at 4:43 PM ^

The 1969 OSU team was widely seen as one of the best teams ever to put on uniforms. Then, of course, there were a couple of John Cooper teams that were in the top ten playing disappointing UM teams and losing. OSU is the better team this year, and on paper they should enjoy another rout. Thankfully, they don't play the games on paper.

A lot of things will have to go wrong for OSU and right for UM for UM to win this game, but that is exactly what happens to someone every week in the NCAA. And I still really like the intangibles of UM fighting to extend their season while OSU is "just" trying to get an outright championship instead of a shared one.

Also, I think Pryor is a lot more of a front-runner than he is a fighter. If UM can somehow make it feel like a street fight, Pryor will make a crucial error at an inopportune time. I would like to see a couple of things happen:

1. Ring Pryor's bell early and often. It might even be worth a few 15-yard penalties to set a precedent that will affect him throughout the game.

2. RR needs to show a few plays that nobody has seen from UM this year. Tressel's first-half package in 2006 was what kept UM from playing in the NC that season. I don't know if UM has the personnel to execute everything yet, but RR needs to come up with something to surprise Tressel. I would hope they play it close in the first half and spring the surprises in the second half. That will not allow OSU enough time to adjust.

A victory over OSU would mean a lot to this team. It would help the momentum into next year. Most of all, though, it would keep the press and the naysayers off of the team's backs during the offseason and it would cool the so-called "RR hot seat."

This game now means even more to UM, at least this year, than it does to OSU. That can go a long way toward determining the outcome. It would possibly be the biggest upset in the history of the rivalry. That would be saying a lot. And so would we.

ijohnb

November 11th, 2009 at 5:20 PM ^

OSU is going to be ramped up if they beat Iowa. The Buckeyes looked very good last week, even TP, that game was not even as close as the not close score would indicate. Purdue beat a different team than the one Michigan will see. I am all for miracle victories and am not saying that it can't happen, but I think Wisconsin even on the road is far more winnable than OSU.

michman79

November 11th, 2009 at 6:02 PM ^

What performance against mobil QB's (and non-mobile QB's named Cousins) makes you think Pryor won;t do the same. Also, OSU's defensive line is way better than our patchwork Offensive Line. This team is 4-0 against FBS teams with Molk and 0-5 without him. OSU is trending upwards and will be playing for a Big Ten Title. No chance of a let down. My hope is that Iowa injures at least 14 of OSU's starting 22.