With the new playoff format do you think there's any way USC/UCLA back out of Big Ten and/or Texas/USC of the SEC? Does this put a halt to super conferences?
I had this thought yesterday and held off until today.
I was very excited by the new playoff news because even though it's not necessarily fair (12 best teams aren't gonna make it because of automatic qualifiers) - it preserves a lot of the tradition of college football in that it disincentives making supper conferences given the top six conference champions are protected.
Do you think there's any way this will prevent the new additions to the major conferences? This may be a stupid question given all four are hurting themselves by moving to their respective conferences already, but wasn't sure if this would have an impact on their moves in any way.
September 4th, 2022 at 2:00 PM ^
We can only hope.
September 4th, 2022 at 2:03 PM ^
Nope won’t change their minds at all. It’s all about money and they will make a ton more money in their new conferences
September 4th, 2022 at 3:07 PM ^
Money talks the loudest.
September 5th, 2022 at 2:56 PM ^
Cash is king!!
September 4th, 2022 at 3:29 PM ^
Duplicate - my apologies.
September 4th, 2022 at 3:30 PM ^
Though this may be a bit dated, I believe Mr. Jerry Maguire shouted “Show me the money!”
Nothing has changed since he first made that comment.
Those teams’ path to the playoff will involve a more competitive conference schedule. But, win or lose - they’ll get their cut of the media agreement dollars.
September 4th, 2022 at 2:04 PM ^
I don’t think so. It was about getting 2/4 teams now it will be about getting 4 or 5/12 in. To quote Wolf of Wall Street “ money talks and bullshit takes the bus.”
September 4th, 2022 at 2:05 PM ^
They aren't making the move to have easier access to the playoffs. You could argue that undefeated USC or Texas will always make the playoffs. Moving to the B1G or SEC will only make their path more difficult. They are making the move because of metric shit tons of money. Unless the 12 team playoff changes the financial balance in a significant way, it won't have an impact.
September 4th, 2022 at 3:03 PM ^
Moving to new conferences might make it harder to qualify for a bye but multiple teams will make it from the B1G and sec.
Now if you give the PAC a billion a year tv rights they might jump back.
September 4th, 2022 at 3:34 PM ^
Soft - agreed. And, IMO - the only way the PAC gets a billion dollar media agreement is if Nike (Phil Knight), Hollywood, and Microsoft (to support Washington) - collude and pony up about $950 million annually.
September 4th, 2022 at 4:36 PM ^
The money canon is driving everything.
I was surprised by the format of the playoffs. Even with four teams, there have been more than a few blowouts. There is a large disparity between the top few teams and what is below them. My concern is that with lesser conferences, the likelihood of more lopsided games increases.
I was hoping that the B1G and the SEC would grow to 20 teams each and start controlling their own playoffs with a few spots for "everyone else" not in the two super conferences along with rules that if you did not participate in a playoff game, you would not be eligible for NC game competition. Screw ND.
September 4th, 2022 at 2:09 PM ^
Im sick of thinking about this stuff. They're going to make some excel spreadsheets figure out what will probably make the most money over the coming decade and do that. No point is us trying to figure anything out and pretending like they care what we think.
September 4th, 2022 at 2:13 PM ^
I don’t think that we’d see teams back out. I could see the super conferences evolve to the point we’re you effectively have the sec and B1G as two conferences like the AL and NL or AFC and NFC. And then hopefully break back up into regional/geographic divisions.
We are not far off from the TV money situation. The B1G already has a tv package somewhat structured like the NFL and NBA over multiple networks.
I’d absolutely love to see things evolve to the point where you have a relegation system. The MAC would be the B1G child, ACC-AAC, SEC-SBC, Pac 12-MWC. And Big 12 in there somewhere
September 4th, 2022 at 3:47 PM ^
Relegation is the pipiest of pipe dreams. Big Ten schools with so-so football programs would be risking a fortune and for what? No possible benefit comes to mind.
September 4th, 2022 at 4:19 PM ^
It's not something that I'm holding my breath for, but I could see it working if there is a uniform tv deal and if the scenario that I laid out plays out. Programs like Cincy could have a shot at the national title while we get more intriguing in conference games like a cincy vs Mich matchup instead of Rutgers. It could make sense and increase the quality of the product and competition. But, again, it's not something that I'm holding my breath for.
September 4th, 2022 at 5:05 PM ^
A universal TV deal meaning every school gets the same amount of money? Sorry to laugh, but that is completely nuts.
Cincy is joining the Big 12 next year. They would never play Michigan in conference games in your scenario. Instead, we would get MAC teams that have worse facilities and worse recruiting than any Big Ten team. They aren't going to raise the quality of competition and they would mostly get relegated right back. Meanwhile, the Big Ten schools that get relegated get destroyed. They are suddenly playing a MAC schedule. Ticket sales would plummet. Players would transfer and good recruits would lose interest. Relegation might be a good idea somewhere, but not for college football.
September 4th, 2022 at 9:08 PM ^
Disagree. It would be the best thing that could ever happen to college football, which is why it will never happen.
September 4th, 2022 at 8:32 PM ^
No College President or Chancellor would willingly sign up for that.
September 4th, 2022 at 2:13 PM ^
No, like everyone is saying, they're making these moves for money. They'll just be multiple B1G and SEC teams in the playoffs every year. I assume OSU/UM/USC/MSU/PSU will be the frequent ones from our conference.
September 4th, 2022 at 2:28 PM ^
Put in Wisconsin for MSU and you have it nailed.
September 4th, 2022 at 2:14 PM ^
No. Because conference TV $$.
September 4th, 2022 at 2:16 PM ^
nope.
widening the CFB playoffs is nice, but still does not address TV conference media rights.
September 4th, 2022 at 3:36 PM ^
Bleu, I believe the ACC is the conference that is most concerned because of their GOR.
September 4th, 2022 at 8:02 PM ^
the ACC is in a straight jacket with that deal for sure.
the PAC12 has been floundering for a while...pretty much since the USC dynasty crumbled.
I have a buddy who is an Oregon grad, so it gives me no pleasure to say this, but Oregon has been the best PA12 team since the SC collapse, but Oregon doesn't draw eyeballs, which is why the TV contracts for the PAC12 have been constantly declining (and the time difference and that there doesn't seem to be as much interest in CFB out west compared to the midwest and south).
the new CFB slots might help with teams like Clemson/Miami/FSU staying put as well as the Big12. but Conference TV deals aren't simply based on CFB playoff spots, but the rest of the conference schedules.
September 4th, 2022 at 2:16 PM ^
Doubt it. Was and is about the money. Don't see how expanded playoffs changes that; if anything, having greater media breadth might increase the number of teams the GreatBig can get into the playoffs and into even more money.
September 4th, 2022 at 2:18 PM ^
I don’t think so. The moves to the B1G were almost exclusively about money. USC is hardly getting anything due to the poor overall product of the PAC12 and subsequent their tv rights deal.
UCLA was running a major financial loss in their athletics department and was on the verge of terminating quite a few sports programs. They quite simply need cash, and they’re only going to get it from the Big Ten.
September 4th, 2022 at 2:18 PM ^
If those teams wanted the easiest path to the playoffs they wouldn't be moving in the first place.
September 4th, 2022 at 2:45 PM ^
Idaho, one of the best license plate slogans: "Famous Potatoes"
September 4th, 2022 at 2:19 PM ^
+1 for the comprehensive and very clear thread title.
September 4th, 2022 at 2:34 PM ^
A comprehensive title, aka, mini-essay.
September 4th, 2022 at 2:19 PM ^
No. There's too much money involved between television and conference payouts, and teams will want to trade up regardless if they can. Besides, there is no way to measure whether or not, for example, a 10-2 record in the Pac-12 would translate to a bump in ranking if a team achieved that in a different conference - it might, it likely does affect voting some, but the money is the overriding concern. Actually, USC and UCLA are opting for a harder road to such things if they do in fact join the Big Ten, so it must be the money.
September 4th, 2022 at 2:19 PM ^
Now, supper conferences are the kind of conferences I can get behind!
I'd even wager their end of year banquet is a covered spread, wouldn't want those steam trays to get cold!
September 4th, 2022 at 2:24 PM ^
With the 12 team playoff joint a super conference makes no sense
September 4th, 2022 at 2:28 PM ^
This may be a stupid question given all four are hurting themselves by moving to their respective conferences already
Genuinely curious why you believe this.
September 4th, 2022 at 5:15 PM ^
PAC 12 is a lot softer than the Big Ten, Big 12 is a lot softer than SEC
September 4th, 2022 at 2:31 PM ^
This may be a stupid question given all four are hurting themselves by moving to their respective conferences already
Except that this isn't a given, at all. They're going to make far more money in their new digs.
September 4th, 2022 at 2:31 PM ^
Came for the hot take, stayed for the supper conference, is it potluck or…?
September 4th, 2022 at 2:35 PM ^
I suppose it is 6 spots but that is 5 conferences and 1 spot for the group of 5. The happiest people are Baylor, TCU and Cincy schools as they now have a path to said playoffs.
The BIG TEN and SEC expanded for one reason only. TV money. The 12 team playoff is set up for the SEC and BIG TEN to split the 5/6 open bids (ND will no doubt stay independent as they will have an easy path to the playoffs every year). The ‘debate’ will be does Florida or Wisconsin grab the last spot.
September 4th, 2022 at 3:13 PM ^
Yes, the big winner in all of this is Notre Dame. Given that they are perpetually overrated, they will make the playoffs every single year as one of the At-Larges. (And that slot will come from pushing out a Big Ten team, not an SEC team.)
At the end of the day, ND still won't make as much TV money as Northwestern or Purdue, but they will make enough to stay independent. They will also be able to keep a watered-down schedule since they won't have to schedule a bunch of tough games to make up for not playing in a conference championship.
It is not fair, but nothing about Notre Dame and college football politics has ever been fair.
September 4th, 2022 at 3:33 PM ^
We're on the same page here. Right now I am going back through the past 7 years (Harbaugh era only, no dark days. Doing my best to forget those days) and seeing how the 12 playoffs would look like. Will be creating a dairy shortly with the results.
Sneak Preview, Michigan makes the playoffs 3 times (2016, 2018, and last year) and finished 14th in 2017 and 2019. Some what surprising, ND only makes it 2 more times ('15 and '21) aside from their highly underserving bid in '18.
EDIT: Finished the rankings, and yes ND benefits greatly, they are also in for '20 (I tend to ignore COVID because it was such a crazy year)
September 4th, 2022 at 6:13 PM ^
If they want a bye, they’ll need to join a conference
September 4th, 2022 at 2:35 PM ^
Not at all. If anything this justifies their move even more.
A big argument against them joining was that their new conferences would be more competitive, making it harder for them to finish in the top 4. Well, now they'll just have to make the top 12.
September 4th, 2022 at 2:38 PM ^
30+ words in the title: an MGoBlog record?
September 4th, 2022 at 5:16 PM ^
Pretty sure I've had even longer titles, but yeah I hold the record somewhere
September 4th, 2022 at 9:03 PM ^
In the running for the coveted Prolixity Prize!
September 5th, 2022 at 11:09 AM ^
I noticed you noticing this. Well pointed out, but likely not a record, if MGoMemory serves.
September 4th, 2022 at 2:49 PM ^
No. The Super-conferences are about getting bigger payouts from t.v. contracts not making championship games.
September 4th, 2022 at 2:57 PM ^
They’re not going to turn down all that money.