Near Realtime COVID19 Predictive Data
The daily thread on COVID19 has turned into a mess so this news is worth posting in a new thread.
So far all our data on COVID19 severely lags actual trends. New cases each day are typically underreported by 10x and real cases do not turn into test results for as many as two weeks. Some people never get tracked or tested because their symptoms are low.
The links here are from a real time temperature thermometer company. During flu season they can see trends far earlier than the CDC.
What they can show now in near real time is how fevers compare to a normal flu season and also how they have changed nationwide and locally in response to counter measures.
What this shows is that Shelter in Place is working where and when it’s been put into place. It’s quote promising and reportedly one reason the WH just changed directions.
This is the company’s tracking website:
This is an article explaining the data further:
Florida is fucked
They were fucked before a global pandemic broke out.
It's true! Google: Florida man + your birth date
Looks like my bday is when the naked guy chewed off the face of the other guy.
March 30th, 2020 at 10:55 PM ^
That's actually lots of days
March 30th, 2020 at 10:28 PM ^
Mine has a 71 yr old man masturbating in a Pizza Hut.
There is a ton of spread because the majority of those infected are not fatal. Yes tragic. Yes terrifying for many...people are going to get sick, people are gonna die. It will run its course like the Spanish flu and swine flu...it's the course of human life. TAKE CARE OF YOU AND OF FAMILY...
blue_by_u, here's another link i came across. shows a peak day for michigan and nationally around 4/11.
link: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
i can't vouch for the numbers, but it looks something close to reasonable estimate.
I played around with that model last night and I can't decide how I feel about it. It shows NY peaking next but Colorado, where started social distancing sooner and have way less cases, not peaking for another week after that.....definitely some noise in there.
I believe the data is more robust when you have a lot more cases, which is why they could be off on Colorado, so I'm choosing to believe we are a week away from peak here as well vs. two weeks.
March 31st, 2020 at 10:28 AM ^
I think that's actually pretty normal. The better a state/country does with social distancing, the better it does at spacing out sickness. Slowing its spread means the peak is not as bad, but it also means it's later.
March 31st, 2020 at 11:10 AM ^
Why is that? If you have less cases, why would it take longer to get past the "peak". Shouldn't peak be a function of when the 1st cases were reported, rate of spread and total population? I feel like the peak for NY should be way out given the massive population and density of the City. Seems weird they would be one of the first to hit the peak when they were "late" to the game.
That's exactly what the curve flattening is all about. The places taking corrective measures have a much lower peak, but it is also much later in the trend.
Florida was a petri dish of Covid.
Fla is fucked because of NY snowbirds and Spring break. Those 3 counties and I lived in Palm Beach for a decade are going to kill a lot of people. My wife and I lived in Delray Beach off Atlantic damn close to a huge retirement community. It's going to be awful there and Broward and Dade and if they hop over to Naples we are going see huge numbers of dead.
I'm in Texas now on the west side of Houston and I'm sure our wave is next with the Louisana folks bringing more of it. I guess our one saving grace is oil and gas are on life support so international travel here is done. My neighbors are being laid off left and right through here and it is beyond sad no matter your views on that industry.
West Texas won't see much of this though as its open as shit and people aren't on top of each other out there.
The virus was going to make its way to Florida one way or another. The beaches were left unclosed specifically to avoid missing the spring break business boom. Our leadership should have been quarantining and closing up shop. ‘Blame New Yorkers’ is the latest conservative dodge.
Can you provide a link documenting the desire to keep beaches open and not lose spring break profits? I'm not disputing, but interested in understanding what's happened in FL. Thanks
I don't know that a sane politician would put it so bluntly. Don't know how to get a link in here but...
google: coronavirus could impact Florida's spring break economy to see the dilemma Desantis was faced with a few weeks ago. In the end, as we know, he chose not to close beaches and businesses.
I'm in Spain. The beaches are closed here and there is no problem with people from Madrid fleeing to the beaches. There absolutely was that problem a couple weeks ago before the decision was made.
March 31st, 2020 at 11:14 AM ^
Where are you in Spain? I've had a number of family members there test positive but none critical and they are all on the their 70s. Two I know were given chloroquine at the hospital and then sent home to recover. One of them was a HEAVY smoker her whole life.
Sorry to hear that.
I was in Sevilla, but then had to go to Barcelona with my girlfriend to help get her parents home to Italy (they had some special ferries a couple of weeks ago). Decided not to chance returning and we are bunkered in a long term airbnb south of Barcelona.
Worse places to be....great beaches around that part of the country. I practically grew up in Sevilla so I hope you're enjoying it and make it back there soon. Good luck to you and the girlfriend.
And, of course.....Viva el Betis 'manque' pierda!
March 31st, 2020 at 11:16 AM ^
Just curious if you have any data to backup your asinine claim that New Yorkers are responsible for Florida's piss poor Covid response and likely spike in cases soon to be realized?
Your point regarding spring break is well documented:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/ron-desantis-why-the-are-floridas-beaches-still-open
https://www.wrcbtv.com/story/41915206/locals-close-florida-beaches-after-governor-refuses-to
Regarding NY, it sounds like you are just spouting some bullshit conservative talking point where the only source I can find is the exact idiot who has bungled Florida's response:
Florida, man.
March 30th, 2020 at 11:17 PM ^
When this thing takes hold in The Villages, it’s going to be like a kid in a candy story in Disneyland on Christmas.
March 31st, 2020 at 11:54 AM ^
If the retired folk hunker down, don’t go out for shit then they should hopefully weather the storm. Anyone who’s not socially active and doesn’t have it now should stay that way if they keep doing the same things. I’ve made a few grocery runs here and there but am prepared to become a hermit for at least a week.
US will pass China in total deaths today
another crappy milestone
Reported deaths...
I’d be surprised too if China is telling the truth. They CONTROL the media..
They haven’t told the truth up until this point. Why start now? And yes, the rest of the world CAN figure it out. It doesn’t take terribly advanced imaging equipment to see when factories are running and when they are not. People are keeping track of the number of urns that go in and out, etc. This many pants haven’t been on fire since the Great Haberdashery Row fire of aught four . . .
They still have people locked down in jails or just plain missing. Big difference between us and a communist country. Earlier lockdown tactics would have helped here but would have been politicized.
China, Russia, and India have to more than they are saying. I don't buy for second India is doing as well as they say there or China and Putin is whatever.
Yup. Thousands upon thousands living in slums throughout India are going to die from this because there is no possible way to enact social distancing for them. You have hordes of people sharing one toilet and bathroom facility. People living on top of, below, and right around each other. So many of these people will never even come close to getting tested for COVID, much less fight off the virus or get access to a vaccine, but the government will never do a full accounting of how many of these people died.
Even if they wanted to, it’ll be logistically impossible.
March 30th, 2020 at 10:15 PM ^
India is a catastrophe. Modi closed all the train lines without telling anyone in advance and tens of millions of poor workers in the cities had to leave and go back to their villages, sometimes hundreds of miles away, on foot in often dense crowds. Everything is a mess.
March 31st, 2020 at 12:29 AM ^
One thing to beware: we import a TON of our pharmaceuticals from India and China. If India gets hit hard, expect difficulty getting your prescriptions.
I read yesterday the prices of meth. Herein and fentynal are high right now because China can't export the ingredients. So. There is that positive to the virus.
Some countries got the virus later than others. It may not - yet - mean much that India or Russia don’t have many cases. But if they still don’t in a month, then it’ll be suspicious.
Another country to note is Mexico, where the president has made a bunch of weird declarations, including claiming that poor people are immune to COVID-19.
Average age in India is 26 and it's hotter than hell there....they may do better than the rest of the world despite the mass of humanity living on top of each other.
Average age of death from Covid in Italy is 78....same thing in Spain.
Really? Who told you what China’s numbers are?
I think we just passed them in the total number of gullible posters in this thread too.
Haha China could have 10 million deaths and we’d never know. Don’t believe anything that comes out of that country.
There are still independent news sources on the ground in China. They are more reliable than Facebook news sources
There are also private corporations that are reliable indicators of how things are going in China. I personally just keep up to date on whether Apple Stores are open, since they tend to be ahead of the curve on non-public data.
They are Facebook news.
People still seem to be getting suckered in by taking whatever China says to heart.
China has a state-run media. A state that is controlled wholly by one single party, a party which isn’t exactly a shining beacon of truth and transparency. Their press reports what the government tells them to report. If the Chinese government told the press to tell the world that they not only got coronavirus under control, but also cured it, AIDS and all forms of cancer simultaneously, then that is what’s getting reported. If you report anything other than that, you get one of two things, and probably both eventually. Decades spent in a remote work camp doing hard labor, or a bullet in your head.
You're getting the numbers China is willing to report. They are not going to give you anything that undermines their ability to portray to the rest of the world that they have everything under control. Odds are the infected/death totals in China are, in actuality, much higher than what is being reported.
March 31st, 2020 at 10:35 AM ^
Even when there are myriad news sources, it doesn't always mean that people get their news from a reliable source - and sometimes they even willingly follow the source that parrots the state.
....I'll stop right there.
We have literally no clue how many died in China. China hides literal concentration camps from the world so Im sure they have no issue with hiding dead bodies
Also China's death toll and case count is kind of irrelevant to compare to other countries because China's government can take measures civilized governments can not.
Can you imagine If Trump chained people in their houses like China did lol
Or put kids in cages? Oh wait, never mind.
March 30th, 2020 at 10:46 PM ^
I saw a report that air pollution is down by 10% in China
March 31st, 2020 at 10:51 AM ^
1) I trust nothing that comes out of Chinese state run media.
2) Opened the article and first thought was...look at their trains compared to our Amtrak and NYC subway. Our infrastructure is pathetic.
Our infrastructure is pathetic.
Yep, in a lot of ways, parts of the US are third world as well.
Read an interesting article today about why the US cannot have nice things -- it leveraged use cases in Sweden since their socialist democracy is so often cited these days.
How can the US be wealthier but not have the things those other countries do: healthcare that works, better schools, roads, 1 year off paid to have a baby, etc... and it pretty much boils down to deficit spending, the welfare state, and bloated defense spending.
China under reporting deaths. They lie. How much? Perhaps 100s of thousands but we'll never know. Trust them?-NOT!