ND Likely to Schedule Michigan Sooner than Planned

Submitted by mgoblue99 on August 16th, 2022 at 1:47 PM

Per Sports Business Journal's John Ourand, the recent Big Ten TV deal with NBC likely means Notre Dame will stay independent. Ourand also notes that ND is likely to resume its rivalry with Michigan sooner than currently scheduled (link to article): 

What the Big Ten deal means for Notre Dame

Notre Dame gets around $25 million per year from its current NBC deal, which runs through 2025. Sources say the school should expect around $60 million per year from a new contract -- though it’s hard to predict how the media business will look three years from now.

There had been speculation that Notre Dame could command a rights fee upward of $75 million per year when it renegotiates its new contract. That’s because it fills its schedule with games -- like its long-standing rivalry with Navy -- that traditionally bring in lower ratings.

Obviously, Notre Dame would remain independent if it agrees to a new rights deal. But its association with NBC -- and NBC’s new association with the Big Ten -- make it likely that the Fighting Irish would add more Big Ten games to its schedule.

In other words, expect a return of Notre Dame’s rivalry with Michigan before 2033, which is when they are next scheduled to meet. The two last played in 2019. This season, Notre Dame has one Big Ten school (Ohio State) and one soon-to-be Big Ten school (USC) on its schedule.

 

FB Dive

August 16th, 2022 at 1:52 PM ^

Interesting article, but seems thinly sourced and mostly speculative. I really can't see us scheduling them regularly until we're done with our Texas/OU home and homes and our return trip to UW. I suppose we could cancel those games but I hope we don't.

JonnyHintz

August 16th, 2022 at 3:20 PM ^

Reporting on what you’re hearing about a TV deal from actual sources is pretty different than speculating about potential matchups. 
 

He isn’t citing any actual information about ND-UM other than it makes sense for ND to schedule more B1G games. 
 

In reality, we can also speculate that since ND is losing their exclusive deal with NBC. It makes sense for them to JOIN the B1G. Having NBC all to themselves was a big deal to them in recent rounds of expansion according to some. Not wanting to leave their deal with NBC and be stuck sharing the wealth/limelight from another network. If NBC wants to capitalize on B1G vs ND games, they better pressure ND into joining. 

Carpetbagger

August 16th, 2022 at 4:32 PM ^

Agreed. I don't think the logic some of these guys are using for NBC getting some of the rights to the Big 10 helping Notre Dame's independent deal holds any more water than some of those who speculated the exact opposite a few days ago.

Do we even know if NBC makes any money on Notre Dame at $25m a year?

Vasav

August 17th, 2022 at 1:27 PM ^

I don't actually know how broadcast networks make money in general. Like, I know it's advertising, and more eyeballs drives higher advertising, whereas on cable/peacock there's additionally subscription fees. I'm actually super curious about this in general tho. It's great the Big Ten is on broadcast for 3 games now. How does a game on ESPN compare to a game on ABC for disney, not for eyeballs but for revenues? Are sports leagues ever willing to take a cut in revenue for increased exposure?

Leaders And Best

August 16th, 2022 at 5:42 PM ^

I think it is the other way around. NBC probably telling ND they need better inventory to get the TV contract they want. ND only has the rights to their home games, and one guaranteed marquee rivalry game every year on their schedule, USC (usually in October when at ND).  I think NBC execs want them to bring Michigan back for September as another rivalry game in alternating years with USC at home so NBC would be guaranteed to have one of those games every year. Michigan would have to agree, and I hope we tell them to join the conference or kick rocks.

Amazinblu

August 16th, 2022 at 7:26 PM ^

L&B, one thing that NBC was looking for was “shoulder programming” around the ND schedule.  

What I will find interesting to follow is - how often will ND play at night.  I believe the agreement is - Fox with the noon game.  CBS with the afternoon - 3:30 pm ET.  And, NBC with the night game.  

i assume ND would like evening games - especially against their marquee opponents - such as USC, or this season - Clemson, to spread their brand and attract a larger audience.

JonnyHintz

August 16th, 2022 at 9:22 PM ^

The agreement, the way I understood it at least, is that Fox gets first pick, CBS gets second pick, then NBC. 
 

Now, CBS wants to fill that 3:30 slot so that’s always going to be that game. Fox has the Big Noon Kickoff, however that game isn’t always played at noon. So that’s where you’ll see a bit of flexibility. NBC similarly can fill whatever slot they want with their game, including competing with Fox and CBS at either of their respective slots. Assuming ND remains independent, that’s another thing NBC has to work around. 
 

Maybe I got that completely wrong, but that’s the what I took from it.  

Chaco

August 16th, 2022 at 1:52 PM ^

yay they're independent etc etc

B1G should collectively boycott them until they join (it seems logical to have them in the fold with someone like Stanford)

also to Hell with Notre Dame

Gobgoblue

August 16th, 2022 at 2:27 PM ^

I mean, if I were an ND fan and put aside the fun of the rivalry to only focus on success for ND, I would hate to play Michigan and/or MSU regularly. 

You recruit well and get national hype every year that is mostly deserved and reinforced because you get to play most of your schedule against the dregs of the ACC and a couple PAC schools that are a shell of their former selves. 

This year they'll get beat up by Ohio State and will be in a rock fight against Clemson, maybe Lincoln will have USC humming by the end of November (he should imo), but it's not hard to see them at around 9/10 wins. 

TeslaRedVictorBlue

August 16th, 2022 at 1:55 PM ^

On the flip side, fineebottom said that ND ranked in the top 5 is a joke... so not EVERYONE loves ND 24/7. 

I hope Freeman is their Brady Hoke. Lots of crying and "its perfect" and "meant to be" and great recruiting.. and then shit on the field. I'm not knocking Brady as a person, just wasn't good enough for Michigan.

Weird that Brian Kelly had an amazing run of success at ND, and they're now like.. "nooowwww we're really gona be good".. its really hard to get success and then sustain it anywhere. 5 guys can do it and even they falter (e.g. dabo). Theyll have their share of wins, but in the end 9-3 is still 9-3. 

bronxblue

August 16th, 2022 at 2:25 PM ^

I agree about ND maybe underrating the Kelly era.  I think the guy was awful as a human being but from 2010-2021 (his 12-year run) he won 74% of his games and generally raised ND to consistent top-10/15 team.  In the 12 years before he arrived (basically from Bob Davie to Ty Willingham to Charlie Weiss) they won 57% of their games.  Freeman is probably better than those guys as a coach...but it's certainly not a given.  

Vasav

August 16th, 2022 at 2:57 PM ^

As a counter to this - Kelly was a good coach, and much better than what was there before. But he had 4 wins over top ten teams - 2 of whom didn't finish the season ranked at all - and 1 win against a top 5 team (against Clemson in 2020) in 12 seasons. In 7 seasons, Harbaugh has 1 top 5 win and 3 top 10 wins - including a memorable win over Brian Kelly in 2019.

Kelly was a good coach - but he managed to miss Clemson in the regular season until the COVID year. He further benefited from ND not playing Michigan, USC being down, Stanford returning to earth, and playing an ACC schedule. And even on that, he doesn't exactly look better than Harbaugh. Harbaugh is a good coach - but people comparing Kelly to Rockne are looking at stats without context. It's like comparing Harbaugh to Yost because they both had a 12 win season.

Amazinblu

August 16th, 2022 at 2:43 PM ^

Bronx,  what’s more important these days - offense or defense?

The rules seem to favor the offense.  Higher scoring games.  When was the last “10-10” tie, or “12-10” score?  

Kelly, IMO, was more offensively minded.  Freeman seems more on the defensive side of the ball - and looking at his background, it doesn’t seem as if he’s ever held an offensive coaching position - at any level.

So, unless the ND D can hold teams to a “low score”, their offense is going to need to step up.

Amazinblu

August 16th, 2022 at 3:31 PM ^

Yo, I was there, and actually met the parents of some Rutgers players - over dinner - after the game.

But, your point is very fair - and, complements another comment I made.  Even the weaker teams in the B1G can put up a pretty good fight.  In addition to Rutgers, the game in Lincoln was a bit challenging too.

Double-D

August 16th, 2022 at 5:33 PM ^

Last season was a great coaching job by Harbaugh and the staff.  The team (the offense) got much better as the season progressed.

I am all for freezing ND out of the high profile games and letting them have scraps if they want to be independent.

MGlobules

August 16th, 2022 at 3:19 PM ^

Unfortunately, a 9-3 ND is more attractive than a 9-3 Oklahoma State (etcetera), and we all know it. The poster above who notes that getting walloped a few times a year by the good teams and then trying to slither into the playoff anyway (only to get walloped again) is ND's strategy has it right. If they want to join the B1G and be another school in the league--earning their way like everyone else--let them join and duke it out. If not, I'm all for crushing them like a bug, now, later, and forever. 

lilpenny1316

August 16th, 2022 at 3:22 PM ^

Brian Kelly is a good football coach. Because of his temper, and newfound Southern accent, he doesn't get the credit he deserves. You can't find one HC stop of his where the program did not ascend under him. Yes, ND got curbstomped on the big stage, but at least he got them there multiple times. 

 

Amazinblu

August 16th, 2022 at 2:13 PM ^

Boogie, when ND joins a conference - they really have one choice - and that choice is the B1G.

Do you think ND alumni will relish an alignment with the SEC?  ND values it’s academic rigor - and, an association, or schedule - for both academic and societal reasons - with leading schools like Ole Miss, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Arkansas, etc. - well, I don’t think it would be desirable for their alumni.

Amazinblu

August 16th, 2022 at 7:35 PM ^

L&B, I agree that the two options are the B1G and the ACC.  However, what I’m inferring is - the ACC media agreement will not be as lucrative as the B1G or SEC’s.  Part two is - the Grant of Rights - which is in place until 2034 or 2035 - over a decade away.

The ACC is at great risk of becoming irrelevant in football - very quickly.   Right now, I think the perception is - Clemson and everyone else.  Maybe Miami or FSU can step up somehow.  The conference needs more quality teams, and needs them fast.

ND is already “in” the ACC for everything except football and hockey.  And, the schools fit the profile ND would desire - strong academics and solid athletics.

Will ND wait a bit more than a decade?   Will the ACC survive as a conference - until the GoR concludes?   Will a few schools break away from the ACC?  If so, who leaves when?

njvictor

August 16th, 2022 at 2:01 PM ^

Nah, fuck that. Notre Dame shouldn't get to schedule more B1G games and have the luxury to schedule more B1G games. Either join the B1G or continue with your weak ass independent schedule