Monday's Rooting Guide - Thank you Hunter Dickinson! - Bubble Edition
Not gonna lie folks, I thought my gig was up there for a few minutes lol But I'm happy to say, Michigan is still on the bubble and absolutely in contention for a spot in the tourney!
Let's start with a recap of yesterday and where Michigan stands entering the day:
- If you recall, outside of Michigan, we only had rooting interests in 3 other games. And let me tell you....Rutgers did us a solid! If you haven't seen that game yet, try & catch some highlights today. Penn State was up 19 points in the 2nd half, at home, and somehow grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory. That result had MASSIVE implications for Michigan.
- Honestly, the Northwestern & Cincinnati wins would have been nice but weren't all that critical.
- I was tempted to add the OSU/Illinois game but figured it would be a waste of everyone's time. OSU was 71 on the NET rankings entering yesterday. If they had dropped to 75, our win over them would have moved from Quad-2 to Quad-3. That was actually an important win for the Buckeyes. They moved up to 63 on the NET rankings and should be a solid Quad-2 win for us.
- As for Michigan, our NET ranking didn't move, which actually did surprise me. We're still sitting at 55 but with some chances to move tonight and this week (more to come about that).
- Jerry Palm is one of the major Bracketologists to update this far this morning and he has us as his First Team Out. I'll be sure to post here later after Bracket Matrix makes their update.
Alright, let's look at tonight's games because....there are some critical ones:
- North Carolina (18-11, 10-8) at Florida State (9-20, 7-11) - (UNC by 8) - 7pm EST on ESPN - If you missed FSU's buzzer-beater comeback against Miami on Saturday, it was one of the ages. Let's hope the Seminoles keep the late-season magic going and take down UNC today. This would qualify as a Quad-4 loss for UNC and would be a critical hit for an already light resume.
- Baylor (21-8, 10-6) at Oklahoma State (16-13, 7-9) - (Baylor by 1.5) - 9pm on ESPN - Really critical game here. The Cowboys were looking comfortably in the tournament but have lost 4 games in a row. They do have 5 Quad-1 wins, so we really can't afford them to get a 6th. Rooting hard for the Bears here!
- West Virginia (16-13, 5-11) at Iowa State (17-11, 8-8) - (ISU by 5) - 9pm on ESPN2 - Another really important and fascinating game. No way around it, these are two teams going in the wrong direction. WVU has lost 4 of their last 5 games. And while they have 4 Quad-1 wins, their conference record is really going to test the committee's limits for losses. Iowa State has now lost 5 of their last 6 games but with an insane 8 Quad-1 wins, they have zero risk of missing the tournament. We want the Cyclones here.
- Nevada (22-7, 12-4) at Wyoming (8-20, 3-13) - (Nevada by 5.5) - 9pm on CBS Sports Network - So, I would describe this game as a 'nice to have' game. This would qualify as a Quad-3 loss for Nevada, who is currently on the right side of the bubble but not yet safe. A loss to a not great Wyoming team could change that. Let's do this Wyoming!
It's pretty rare we have this many important games on a Monday. In particular that 9pm hour is going to tell us a lot about what Michigan will need to do to keep serve. Hoping for some more Big 12 chaos like we saw on Saturday. Thanks again for all of the kind words & encouragement! Love doing these for our community here! Go Blue!
February 27th, 2023 at 12:39 PM ^
Thanks 2 u, True Blue
February 27th, 2023 at 12:46 PM ^
I actually think we’re huge MSU and Pitt fans. If they both become quad 1 wins that immensely helps our resume and puts it more on par with some of these bubble teams. Then if we take one or both of the IU games we could take a spot in the dance. At that point avoid damage in the BTT and hopefully grab one more quad 1 win to feel safe.
February 27th, 2023 at 12:54 PM ^
MSU I do agree with. Pitt......I literally go back and forth on every day lol
Here's the problem with Pitt. Our NET rankings are nearly identical. While they have a better overall record, they've had a horrible strength of schedule. Pitt has played 11(!?) Quad-4 games, we've played 5. They do have 1 more Quad-1 win than us but we have 3 more Quad-2 wins.
I'm coming around to the idea that it may come down to Pitt or Michigan in the tourney. My personal feeling? We either want Pitt to lose both @ ND and Miami or we want them to win both and get that additional Quad-1 win. Splitting the games this week just feels like the status quo for Pitt and doesn't help or hurt us. So, my official stance on Pitt for today is, see what happens on Wednesday against ND and decide from there.
February 27th, 2023 at 1:21 PM ^
I mean if it came down to us or Pitt, wouldn’t they choose us based off our head-to-head win? I feel like that’s a more compelling tiebreaker than Quad wins
February 27th, 2023 at 1:32 PM ^
It's a good question, FB. The other thing I've heard multiple people mention too is the overall brand of Michigan basketball and that helping. The committee shouldn't consider stuff like that but they're humans and we know they do to a degree.
February 27th, 2023 at 2:40 PM ^
If Pitt wins ACC tourney, it's irrelevant. Go Pitt. Win that tourney. Besides, that would mean UNC and Dook lose.
February 27th, 2023 at 4:33 PM ^
Did you say Duke and UNC lose? By definition, that's a "thumbs up" for me.
February 27th, 2023 at 1:40 PM ^
I don't think Pitt is all that close to the bubble. They are on all 89 brackets in the bracket matrix and a solid 10 seed. There are probably 10-12 teams between us and them. It is way more helpful for them to be a quad one win so we can win comparisons against any team than hope they go 0-3 to finish the year and we can beat them for the last spot in the field.
February 27th, 2023 at 1:45 PM ^
I do agree with all of that Ak. But again, everything can change quickly. A loss to ND would be a perfect example of that. A Quad-3 loss this late in the season would be a tough pill to swallow. I think Pitt is pretty safe for now too but I'm sticking with we either want them to go 0-2 or 2-0.
February 27th, 2023 at 4:32 PM ^
Pitt is 3 teams above the play-in on Bracket Matrix, and on a bunch of 'last 4 in' play-in brackets put out the last week. A loss to sub-200 ND will absolutely put them on the same seed line as Michigan, where H2H could come into play (especially if Michigan splits this week, and assuming a Pitt L at Miami). They're not as far apart as may seem. When evaluating 18 teams for 5 spots, it absolutely helps to be on the same seed line as a team we dominated (and the inverse, NC and ASU, ugh).
Also, Pitt is NET -3 (from #50 to #53) the last 6 days, despite going 2-0. ND doesn't move the needle with a W, and @Miami would keep them ahead of us, with no guarantee that they hit NET #50 (also, if we leapfrog them, now they need to pass 4 teams to get to Quad 1).
It's looking increasingly unlikely that Pitt will get to #50, and increasingly likely that M and Pitt end up in spitting distance of each other. Hence, down with Pitt, and Hail H2H.
February 27th, 2023 at 6:35 PM ^
But the key part of that is 18 teams for 5 spots. Michigan fans should be much for focused on making sure we have the best possible resume, not comparing team sheets 1 v 1. Pitt winning two games makes them a quad 1 win and improves Michigans resume relative to all 17 other reams. Pitt losing makes Michigans resume better comparable to Pitt and only Pitt.
February 27th, 2023 at 2:12 PM ^
If Pitt splits their last two, they'll win a share of the ACC. If they win their last two, they win the ACC outright.
I know it doesn't give them the automatic bid, but it would be crazy for the ACC champ to be left out of the tournament. Or even on the bubble for that matter.
February 27th, 2023 at 5:43 PM ^
There is an incredibly tiny chance it comes down to Pitt or Michigan for the last spot. We're talking about many thousands of permutations and possibilities for where the 15 or so bubble teams land on the S-curve in two weeks. And with a super rare-for-the-bubble winning record in q1 games, they aren't going to be put in danger with a loss at ND.
Hence, we want Michigan to look as good relative to those other teams as possible.
And Pitt is very close to top 50 right now. Notice how Oregon (50th to 52nd), North Texas (51st to 50), Charleston (53rd to 51st), and Pitt (52nd to 53rd) all just played musical chairs despite none of them playing yesterday.
That means they're all super close and Pitt will improve their NET enough to pass all of them (pending their own performances) with a good win (by 12-15+ is my guess) at ND. And they likely wouldn't drop out with a loss to Miami unless it's by a large margin. Of course lots more can change in conf tourneys and with other teams but they're very close.
February 27th, 2023 at 2:39 PM ^
I am not a huge MSU fan or any other kind of MSU fan. I do support MSU with my tax dollars.
February 27th, 2023 at 2:41 PM ^
And those dollars in turn go to pay Melvin and lawsuits.
February 27th, 2023 at 5:13 PM ^
Sounds like a Motown act that never made it.
February 27th, 2023 at 12:53 PM ^
As Jekyll and Hyde as this team has been all year..... we could make a run in the B1G Tourny, or we could get bounced in game one.
I'm leaning toward at least a win, if not two and an invite to March Madness. That being said, it wouldn't surprise me either way.
February 27th, 2023 at 1:43 PM ^
I watched Indiana dismantle Purdue over the weekend, and if that Indiana team shows up to play in Bloomington on Sunday, I don't give Michigan much of a chance. I thought Michigan's best chance to get 2 more wins before the end of the regular season was to find a way to beat Wisconsin twice yesterday -- but winning once proved to be difficult enough.
I think Illinois at Champaign on Thursday is a must have. Road games are tough, and Illinois has been pretty tough on Michigan the past few years - home and away...but their performance on Sunday @OSU might offer some hope.
February 27th, 2023 at 2:02 PM ^
As Jekyll and Hyde as this team has been all year.
People keep saying this, but it really hasn't been the case in Big Ten play. In 17 of our 18 conference games, we had a chance to win in the final minutes. We've been a good team (2nd in the league in efficiency margin) that's just had trouble closing games out. The last two games might be a sign of that finally changing.
February 27th, 2023 at 2:46 PM ^
"Chance to win in the final minutes" isn't worth much without the win. We got clobbered by a so-so PSU team, blew a huge lead against Iowa, won an almost unwatchable game against Gers last week. No question they are improving, but still up and down. Our only good road win was against NW.
February 27th, 2023 at 2:57 PM ^
Rutgers is a tournament-bound team and we beat them by double digits. That's a Q1 win. You may need to recalibrate your standards if that's somehow a bad performance in your book.
We should have finished off Iowa (seven-point lead with 2 minutes to go), but again, that's an example of how we've struggled to close games out. We played well for 38 minutes that night, on the road, and didn't finish. (Iowa also has been pretty clutch at Carver-Hawkeye this year - you have to give them that.)
PSU away was the one truly bad performance in league play. It happens.
At the end of the day we're currently tied for second place in the conference, and actually have a small chance of sharing the title. If we're Jekyll and Hyde because we have seven losses, who in the conference isn't?
February 27th, 2023 at 3:20 PM ^
still up and down
The past month of Michigan basketball:
-Won at Northwestern, 68-51
-Beat OSU, 77-69
-Beat Nebraska, 93-72 (Nebraska’s only loss in their last six games)
-Lost to IU, 62-61
-Lost at Wisconsin, 64-59
-Beat MSU, 84-72
-Won at Rutgers, 58-45
-Beat Wisconsin, 87-79
I see a team that’s eight points away from a perfect February, despite having both Jett and T-Will miss multiple games. Doesn’t seem that inconsistent.
February 27th, 2023 at 8:53 PM ^
This team seems to move the ball better and player better defense right now while Jett has been out. Let’s hope we get him back and he helps keep that going.
February 27th, 2023 at 3:45 PM ^
Michigan didn't blow a "huge" lead against Iowa - their biggest lead all game was 10 with about 11 minutes to play (Iowa had an 8-point lead earlier in the first half). It was 7 points with 2:15 to go, and Iowa tied it on a ridiculous 4-point play with 20 seconds to play. Yes Michigan lost that game and it's definitely going to hurt their resume but Iowa has 2 losses at home all year and 1 was to Eastern Illinois by 9, which is bar-none the worst loss a team in the tournament has had this year.
As for Rutgers, Michigan beat them on the road by 13 and they're a top-32 team in the country.
February 27th, 2023 at 4:59 PM ^
Here's some good news: how "watchable" a team's wins are don't factor into selection or seeding. You know it's true because otherwise, Virginia wouldn't get a high seed basically every year. Going out and beating a sure tournament team on the road is going to help, whether it was 100-90 or 20-5.
February 27th, 2023 at 5:09 PM ^
We're very much up. As Seth mentioned in the Wisco preview, Michigan has been the best team in the conference during February and the 11th best team in the country (IU probably passed us with their win at Purdue but still).
Just because during this 8 game stretch in which we've won 6 games we got unlucky and couldn't buy a single bucket in the last 5 min against IU and had horrible reffing at the Trohl center doesn't mean we were "down", per se.
7 of those 8 games had Torvik game scores of 83 or higher out of 100 which is very good (the win against Wisconsin yesterday was the 83). The loss to Wisconsin was a meh but not horrible 64.
That's quite a month. Hard to win them all but 6 of 8 is really good.
February 27th, 2023 at 12:57 PM ^
Great summary of what we need to watch for, thank you! I do wonder how the OSU win will be treated even if it's Quad 2. In my years of doing/looking at bracketology, I've been under the impression that Quad 2 wins don't really help you all that much if the win isn't vs. a tournament-quality team. Thoughts?
Either way, I feel confident about the team's chances after yesterday, and that's not a statement I could have made at the start of this month.
February 27th, 2023 at 1:02 PM ^
Yea, it's interesting. I've been hearing guys on BTN and Fox Sports talking a lot about Quad-1 and Quad-2 combined record. I've also heard mentioned "record against the top 50". Other than that, I'm not entirely sure.
February 27th, 2023 at 1:54 PM ^
Yeah, I'd be interested to know about the distinction as well. The #26 team per NET is WVU, who is 8th in the Big 12 and have 1 win in their last 5. Beating them at home would qualify as a Q1 win to the same degree that ASU beating #11 Arizona on the road. But clearly those are two different class of wins and quality of opponents.
Feels like considering Q1 and Q2 games together helps a bit to ID the signal in the noise that are teams bouncing between 29/30/31 in these ranking systems that may be due to mere fractions of a percent difference. But yeah, would be interesting to really know what the committee considers beyond the rating.
February 27th, 2023 at 5:05 PM ^
Yeah, to your point about beating WVU vs. beating Arizona (and also in response to true blue), I think the specific opponents really matter a lot. I feel like "who did you beat and where did you beat them" come first, and then the overall records by quadrant. Bad losses don't seem to matter as much, so I hope that the CMU loss won't drag us down (at least not too much).
February 27th, 2023 at 1:06 PM ^
In case you needed extra motivation to root for Florida State tonight. I won't lie, I hadn't given this angle any thought but it is interesting that the higher we go, the more it helps teams like Arizona State, UNC, Pitt, Wisconsin, and Penn State. Can't worry about that too much but it is interesting.
February 27th, 2023 at 2:56 PM ^
If they're happy it's because we're happy.
February 27th, 2023 at 5:14 PM ^
It really only stands to significantly help UNC, ASU and Pitt since those were neutral site games and the top 50 threshold is the difference between q1 and q2. And for Pitt, I don't think moving a q2 loss to a q1 loss helps as much as it would help ASU and UNC to gain a q1 win.
Our games against Wisconsin and PSU are locked into the current quadrants pretty much no matter what we do the rest of the way, unless we were to start winning or losing by like 40+.
Regardless, if we win a game this week, we'll be sitting in a very good spot. Won't really matter if that moves us up to top 50 and slightly helps those teams. It will help us by a lot more and we're not just fighting them for a spot, we're fighting a lot of teams.
February 27th, 2023 at 1:15 PM ^
It seems like the following is the math:
0 wins - NIT or nothing
1 win - NIT
2 wins - Dayton or one of the first teams out
3 wins - #11 seed, slight chance at the play-in
4 wins or more - #10 or #11 seed, no play-in
Some of it is what other teams do as well. If Nevada, UNC, Pitt, Wisconsin, the Big XII trifecta, Miss St. lose games they shouldn’t or pick up big wins then it’ll change the calculus.
February 27th, 2023 at 1:17 PM ^
I think if they win two more games they will clear Dayton barely. Possibly the first team to miss Dayton.
And if they win 4 more games and 3 of them are to win the BTT I think they are honestly probably a 9.
February 27th, 2023 at 1:21 PM ^
Agree with all of this. If I may, there are a few other teams I'd point out that folks should keep an eye on over the next few days:
- Clemson
- Arizona State
- Utah State
- Charleston
- New Mexico
If we could get a loss or two from the group you mention and this group, I'd feel a lot better. Every little bit counts when you're basically the last team in or the first team out.
February 27th, 2023 at 2:24 PM ^
Charleston is the interesting one because it brings into play a team that could steal a bid by winning their conference tourney. Charleston is the only team that has any chance of an at-large berth in their conference. If they win their conference tourney, they're the only team dancing from their conference. If they lose the tourney final, that conference could get 2 bids.
February 28th, 2023 at 12:43 AM ^
It's bonkers how meaningful that 60 foot lucky ass heave for ASU is probably going to be. They were about dead and that shot them up to right at the cut line and with the H2H it's going to be hard for M to pass them with just one win this week. Def need them to stumble down the stretch.
Can the committee discount that as a lucky BS win?
February 27th, 2023 at 2:34 PM ^
I think this is too pessimistic. Playing around with Torvik's tourneycast, it's actually possible to be the last team in with 1 win, as long as that is at Indiana, and then you lose to someone like Rutgers in the first game of the BTT. Now that's just a projection, but still I think 2 wins is basically a lock at this point, considering that's almost guaranteed to be 2 more Q1 wins. And with the right 2 wins, they aren't even in the play-in.
I'd say:
0 wins - NIT
1 win - NIT/Dayton
2 wins - #11 seed
February 27th, 2023 at 5:36 PM ^
It depends on the two wins. At Illinois and at Indiana? Sure. Nebraska and then like Northwestern in the BTT Tournament if they lose two this week? Eh, probably not enough.
February 27th, 2023 at 10:32 PM ^
If they go 0-2 then in the tournament they almost surely will have to play Purdue in the 2nd game. That would be a resume win.
February 27th, 2023 at 1:16 PM ^
A moment like yesterday can be absolutely monumental for a team looking for its identity. Think about the mental hurdles cleared.
Who is the leader? Dickinson is.
Can they count on other guys making plays without Jett? Yes, they can.
Do they have a point guard who can put them on his back for a while? Yes, they do.
Can they win in the clutch with all the momentum going in the opposite direction? Yes, they can.
I don’t say this lightly, but I am expecting Michigan to beat Illinois handily on the road on Thursday. I think Michigan is now high on the list of teams people don’t want to draw in March.
February 27th, 2023 at 2:28 PM ^
This may be controversial, but I think this team plays better without Jett (referencing your second question). I'd much rather play through Hunter and Kobe (and maybe even Dug!) than Jett at this point. Jett right now is an offensive sink. If he's on watch out, we can beat anyone, but that is a rarity. If he is mediocre or worse, we're losing too many possessions to bad shots. Jett Hero Ball doesn't help this team, and his defensive liabilities are brutal. I'd love for Jett to come back and shore up these shortcomings, but at this moment, I really think this team gels better without Jett on the floor.
February 27th, 2023 at 2:42 PM ^
I was leaning in that camp until yesterday. But our defense was pretty brutal for almost all of the second half yesterday, and I just don’t think Jett makes it a whole lot worse.
And honestly yesterday there were a number of times we needed somebody to just go get a bucket without a set. When Juwan was talking to Jett late in the game yesterday I think they were honestly considering putting him in. To me, yesterday was kind of evidence that the team does need Jett to play at their best.
February 27th, 2023 at 5:23 PM ^
1. Essegian was just hitting some tough shots and
2. One meh half of defense does not negate the fact that the previous three halves were amongst Michigan's best all year - sometimes a team and player get hot (or bank in threes) and you just tip your cap.
Michigan just covered the kenpom spreads - which are based on data with Jett - in the two games without him. One by almost 20 points. Think they also covered against Purdue when he was out. And they were better in the MSU game after he went out.
The sample sizes aren't huge here but Michigan has been a better team without Jett and it's not super surprising given his streaky offense and poor defense and rebounding.
February 27th, 2023 at 5:41 PM ^
Wisconsin hit some tough shots but they also hit about 10 bunnies from 5 feet with not a contest in sight.
February 27th, 2023 at 2:46 PM ^
I completely agree about this team being better right now without Jett, His defensive liabilities really bring the whole team down. I have been really impressed how Joey Baker has turned into a good defensive player, his intensity on that side of the floor has improved dramatically over the course of the year. I don't have to tell anyone about the Tarris Reed impact on the defensive end and T. Williams has even been spotted playing some help defense.
February 27th, 2023 at 3:00 PM ^
He's shooting 37% from 3. That alone is heavily needed. However, I would agree that moving him to more of a catch&shoot wing role instead of a shot creator, could benefit the team (and the spacing for Hunter). I've liked what I've seen off-the-dribble from Kobe and Dug lately. Dug is finally hitting some shots in the lane, and that Kobe pull up is looking deadly if he keeps improving it.
February 27th, 2023 at 3:10 PM ^
I could definitely get behind this. This makes a lot of sense, and would alleviate some of the ball dominance/bad shots. I'm all for getting Jett the open looks. I've just grown tired of the forced shots.