Michigan opens +2.5 vs Wisconsin

Submitted by NYC Fan3 on November 9th, 2020 at 4:18 PM

Indiana -7 at Michigan St.

andrewgr

November 9th, 2020 at 6:25 PM ^

I've only placed one bet in my entire life, when a friend of mine went to Las Vegas.  I won. So, I am (and forever will be) 100% in my gambling career.

As an obvious expert, I can tell you... I'm sorely tempted to figure out how to place a legal wager, just to take Indiana.  Doesn't that have to be a misprint or something?  

Joined: 11/15/2013

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CompleteLunacy

November 9th, 2020 at 7:48 PM ^

IU could have a letdown game after beating Michigan. That was a major program hump for them.

MSU is going to be a bit more motivated after their blowout loss (which may have been a letdown game for them, after the way they beat Michigan). And they have a good enough defense that could at least keep the game interesting. 

Either that or MSU does really suck that much. Who knows. I'm not betting money anytime soon so *shrug*

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mwolverine1

November 9th, 2020 at 4:53 PM ^

They haven't played period for 2 weeks while we haven't played well for 2 weeks. Also there is some doubt whether Graham Mertz or his backup will play. And who knows how good Wisconsin is at full strength, seeing as they've only played Illinois. Seems like a game bettors would do well to stay away from.

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RobM_24

November 9th, 2020 at 5:00 PM ^

They don't set the line where they think the actual score will be. They set it where they think they can get equal money on both sides. There are a lot of people who put dumb money on Michigan. Happens to ND a lot too, like the Bama Championship game where the line was -14 and ND was down 21 in a matter of like 3 possessions. 

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andrewgr

November 9th, 2020 at 6:29 PM ^

This is a myth.  If Vegas thinks they can make money getting suckers to take bad bets, they'll do it, even if it exposes them to a potential loss, should the bad bet come through.  There are any number of articles on the subject.

That being said, yes, if they don't see a particular edge, they try to approximately even them out.  But particularly in college football, where a lot of alumni bet with their heart, they will absolutely take uneven money and risk the payout, since in the long run, across many games and many seasons, they know they'll come out ahead by playing the percentages.

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Golden section

November 10th, 2020 at 3:18 PM ^

This doesn't just correct it is backed-up by a ton of supporting documentation that suggests the ultimate aim set by the sportsbooks is to balance the action on both sides of the wager.

Not that that means betting lines are designed to reflect the real and accurate probability of either outcome, they're designed to attract bettors to both sides of the line. The reason why UM, Texas, ND etc, often get favouable or distorted odds is because fan bias as opposed to reason shifts the line. This creates a discrepancy between the real probability of an event and the implied probability indicated by the betting line.

It's certainly  intuitive to assume, odds are engineered and subsequently adjusted to attract equal action on both sides of a betting line and that in a perfect world, (for them)  a sportsbook receives equal betting volume on both sides of a wager because then; win or lose, they’ll make their 5-10% off the cut, juice or ‘vig’,

So if we assume a wager of  $110 wins $100, then hypothetically, for 10 bets, distributed evenly  on both sides of the line, they'd collect $2200.  From that, the pay out would be  $2,000 - essentially the losers pay off the winners and the sportsbook gets their vigorish ($200) from both. 

This at least is my understanding. If I'm wrong I'm happy to be reeducated.   

 

 

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Desert Wolverine

November 10th, 2020 at 7:23 PM ^

It is absolutely true, Vegas, and every bookie known to man make their living off the vig.  Ask yourself why illegal sports gambling still exists.  It's because gamblers always think they beat the system.  Since Vegas takes their 10% off the winners (you place a bet that wins $100, you wlk off with $90), while a bookie takes the 10% form the losers (lose $100 bet, pay $110).  Either way they don't care they just want 50% bet each way and they walk off witht he 10% form the appropriate group.

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mGrowOld

November 9th, 2020 at 4:27 PM ^

Good Lord is that a parlay lock.  Take Wisconsin & Indiana and profit.

Lines like these make me wish I lived in a state with legalized sports betting.  Oh....who the hell am I kidding.  ALL lines make me wish I lived in a state with legalized sports betting.

But my net worth is very, very glad I dont.

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andrewgr

November 9th, 2020 at 6:31 PM ^

Actually, I'm really looking forward to seeing how true that is, at the end of the year when we have a bunch of data points.  Part of homefield advantage is certainly the crowd; but part of it is not needing to travel, being in your familiar timezone, sleeping in you own bed instead of a (potentially noisy) hotel room, etc.  It will be super interesting to see if we can take a stab at disentangling those factors.

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Alton

November 10th, 2020 at 9:07 AM ^

The extra-simple approach is that you can just add up all of the conference points scored and allowed by home teams across the nation (you pretty much have to ignore non-conference games), and assume that over a large enough sample all of the other factors cancel out, working to the advantage of the home team and the visiting team equally often.

If you want to be a little more sophisticated, you can develop a rating system that predicts winning margin like Sagarin's or Massey's, start with the assumption that there is no home field advantage, calculate ratings for each team, and then see how much the home teams over-performed over the course of the season.

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