Michigan Football Bowl Forecast Pre-OSU
With only one more regular-season game to go, I thought it would be fun to look at the bowl scenarios we are facing.
If we Beat OSU:
Rose Bowl vs Oregon/Utah
- We would need Wisconsin to beat Minnesota this week and hope the committee would rank us ahead of Penn State.
Outback Bowl/Citrus Bowl vs Auburn/Texas A&M
If we Lose to OSU:
Holiday Bowl vs USC/ASU
Gator Bowl vs Tennessee/Miss St
The Rose Bowl may sound like a pipe dream, but it is definitely not out of the question. If Wisconsin goes to the B!G Champ and loses to OSU, then the Rose Bowl will likely have to choose between a 2-loss Michigan, 2-loss Penn State, and a 3-loss Wisconsin. It is possible that beating OSU would put Michigan ahead of Penn State in the official Playoff Rankings.
Bottom line....Just beat Ohio State.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:27 AM ^
If we beat OSU and they win the B1G, I think we're nearly a lock for the rose bowl - we haven't been there in over 10 years, and they know people will travel for it. We also will have the momentum of coming off the top win of the season nationally.
That said, what a disappointment a Gator bowl appearance would be against a very mediocre SEC team - I just can't see us falling that far.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:32 AM ^
I think the most likely destination if they lose to OSU is the Holiday Bowl against USC. If both Oregon and Utah miss out on the playoff, then that game could likely be against one of those teams as well.
I'm sure the Holiday Bowl would be more than happy to get a Michigan-USC matchup.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:40 AM ^
I would be ecstatic for a Rose Bowl bid mostly because it means we beat OSU. But the Holiday Bowl against USC would be a good consolation prize.
Michigan - Tennessee would be awful. I can't help but think some draftable players would sit out of that one.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:48 AM ^
I would not at all be surprised if some draftable players sat out of the Rose Bowl.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:51 AM ^
Don't think so. Those players that have been in the program would understand the significance of a return to the Rose Bowl. If they were going to sit out the Rose Bowl I am not sure why they would play against OSU.
November 25th, 2019 at 1:16 PM ^
We had a captain sit out of a NY6 bowl last year. Certainly not out of the realm of possibility someone sits for a Rose Bowl.
November 25th, 2019 at 2:13 PM ^
It is not out of the possibility, sure, but I feel like this team is different than last year. I did not particularly feel like the team was that tight knit last year, even when we playing very good. Gary was a corporation unto himself, and I kind of felt like he and Winovich were almost "rivals" more so than teammates. Patterson was a newcomer and looked like a bit of an outsider on the team. Add to it that almost all of the upperclassmen had already played Florida twice, and that the Peach Bowl is garbage and I think you had the perfect storm.
I honestly would not expect the same thing to happen this year if the Rose Bowl was in play.
November 25th, 2019 at 5:29 PM ^
This team certainly feels different. They have "nothing" to play for (no playoffs, no conference championship), yet they are playing their best football now after those goals are off the table. This team seems to have a "Fuck it, we're playing for us" attitude which I love.
November 26th, 2019 at 6:48 AM ^
They have something to prove since OSU last year, and many know proving it makes their best case for draft stock. Think Mannigham, Arrington, Hart and Henne circa 2007 - they needed to beat Florida convincingly from an optics perspective.
Of course if they beat OSU the optics change. So it may be more important for them to play in a Holiday Bowl than a Rose.
November 25th, 2019 at 6:01 PM ^
Have to disagree with you -- the team was very tight knit last year, and had great senior leadership. It was Rashan who convinced Chase to come back for another year. And Chase was the one who coined the "revenge tour" in the first place. Those are not the words or actions of players out for themselves
November 25th, 2019 at 3:14 PM ^
NY6 doesn't mean anything though. It was playoff or bust for last years team and after falling flat, not much excitement about Yet Another Neutral Site Game Against Florida.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:52 AM ^
If Michigan beats OSU I wouldn’t care what bowl game they played in. Vs OSU is the bowl game.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:16 PM ^
But we’d get to go against Solomon...
November 25th, 2019 at 1:42 PM ^
Was he even granted immediate eligibility? If so, is he still with the team? If so, has he cracked the rotation? None of those is a trivial question given his history here. He's not a hot head or a thug, thank goodness, but he's still a million dollar talent and a 10 cent head.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:47 AM ^
The other consideration is who has been to the Rose Bowl more recently. If it comes down to PSU vs UM, UM gets the nod since PSU went in 2016.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:52 AM ^
No, that's not taken into account at all. It's a straight selection based on the rankings. Big Ten Champion goes unless they are in the top 4, otherwise it's the highest ranked Big Ten team not in the top 4.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:19 PM ^
If Michigan beats OSU, wouldn’t that firmly place OSU in the Rose Bowl if they beat Wisconsin? What a chaotic scenario: #2 OSU would fall out of the top-4, however, still be playing Minnesota/Wisconsin for the Conference... no way any of the 3 get in to the playoff, right?
November 25th, 2019 at 12:25 PM ^
Let's say that's what happens. Most people's thinking is that a 12-1 Ohio State team, with a Big Ten championship and its only loss to Michigan, would easily finish in the top 4, ahead of the Big 12 champion and the Pac 12 champion and any SEC non-champion.
Think about it--who is ahead of that hypothetical 12-1, Big Ten Champion Ohio State? Clemson and the SEC Champion, certainly. Utah, certainly not. Maybe Oklahoma with a win over Baylor, but probably not. Find 2 more teams to make the playoffs ahead of Ohio State under this scenario; I can't.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:28 PM ^
OSU would have to get smoked to be kept out. It would have to be a margin of victory thing. If they got their ass kicked by Michigan or Minnesota/Wisconsin they could be left out, but I am pretty confident that there is not a team in the country that can really lay a beat down on OSU.
November 25th, 2019 at 1:12 PM ^
Good call— I was more thinking LSU (SEC Champ), Clemson (ACC Champ), Oklahoma/Utah (Depending on championship games) and then SEC #2 in either Georgia [losing to LSU close in the SEC Champ game] OR Alabama. Leaving Ohio State @ #5.
November 25th, 2019 at 2:04 PM ^
No way Alabama gets in with no conf championship and no Tua. Also no way the LOSER of the SEC title game gets put in ahead of OSU. Unless it’s LSU, then maybe but I don’t see LSU losing
November 25th, 2019 at 11:39 PM ^
If Alabama beats Auburn they're probably in. And I think they're going to beat Auburn.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:28 PM ^
Who is the committee going to put in a over a one loss OSU? A one loss Pac 12 or Big 12 champion in a weaker conference, a one loss non conference champion in Alabama. More likely than not a one loss OSU still gets in regardless of what happens this weekend.
November 25th, 2019 at 3:36 PM ^
Do they use CFP rankings or AP rankings?
November 25th, 2019 at 2:48 PM ^
Michigan-USC is probably the most likely to get the players hype after another loss to Ohio. I have friends from California who think USC would crush Michigan even though the Trojans have been exceptionally mediocre lately, so I've been interested in that matchup for years. Like it or not but big brand names still matter, and facing USC is far more likely to motivate Michigan players and staff than another ho-hum trip south to play B1G Adopted Member Florida again.
November 25th, 2019 at 3:03 PM ^
Especially with Urban Meyer taking over the Trojans in time to coach that game.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:50 AM ^
If the Big Ten champion is in the top 4, then the Rose Bowl gets the next highest ranked Big Ten team, no matter how well they travel. The Bowl has no option; it's all up to the playoff committee's rankings.
So it would come down to who is ranked higher in the committee's rankings, Michigan at 10-2 or Penn State at (presumably) 10-2. The lower ranked team of those two under that scenario is very likely to end up in the Cotton Bowl against whichever G5 champion is ranked highest.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:12 PM ^
This was what I was going to write. I think Michigan would jump Florida if they were to beat OSU which would put them in a NY6 bowl--either the Cotton or the Rose.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:44 PM ^
If Minnesota goes 11-1, and gets to the BIG10 Championship, how could Michigan get ranked higher than them?
November 25th, 2019 at 12:48 PM ^
I too used to think the bowl has no option. But someone corrected me in a thread a month or so ago. The rose bowl can take whoever they want.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:54 PM ^
I'm pretty certain this is not right; this changed when the old BCS turned into the CFP. But I guess I can't find anything in print that says one way or the other.
November 25th, 2019 at 1:06 PM ^
According to the Rose Bowl website, there is an exception clause. See below (emphasis added).
https://tournamentofroses.com/rose-bowl-game-presented-by-northwestern-mutual-selection-procedures/
Should a team from the Big Ten or Pac-12 be selected to go to the College Football Playoff, the Tournament of Roses will traditionally select the next-highest CFP-ranked team from that conference. There is, however, a caveat to that clause in the contract.
“If the next-highest ranked team is in a ‘cluster’ of teams, meaning there is another team or teams from the same conference ranked within several spots of each other, the Tournament of Roses will select the team from that cluster that will result in the best possible matchup for the Rose Bowl Game,” said Rose Bowl Management Committee Chair Scott Jenkins.
In a cluster situation, the Tournament of Roses will take into account factors, in no particular order, such as: the last time a team played in the Rose Bowl Game, head-to-head results, regular season schedule, overall record, opponents played, past playoff or bowl appearances and performance, and historical matchups.
It should be noted that it is the strong preference of the Tournament of Roses, Pac-12 and Big Ten Conferences, that the highest-ranked available team in each conference be selected as the replacement team.
November 25th, 2019 at 1:11 PM ^
Bingo; I just found that and was about to post it myself.
So it's a "strong preference" instead of a rule. And only applies if there is a "cluster," defined as "within several spots," whatever that means. I'm guessing it means that they will pick the highest ranked teams as long as it doesn't create a disaster of a matchup like a rematch of a regular season game or last year's bowl.
November 25th, 2019 at 1:06 PM ^
double double
November 25th, 2019 at 11:47 PM ^
I hope if Michigan beats Ohio St they get to the Rose Bowl. But I can't see how they will. They will get a great Bowl Game. But I cin't see how they get the Rose Bowl. I hope I'm wrong though.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:07 PM ^
I wouldn't say a lock. If Minnesota beats Wisconsin next week and then plays a close game against OSU, they'd have a strong case to go to the Rose Bowl as well, and they'd have the division title under their belts. They haven't been in god knows how long, and I'm sure fans would travel to go and see it.
Is Michigan a bigger draw? Absolutely. But it wouldn't be a lock.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:18 PM ^
The Rose Bowl has to take the highest ranked team. If the CFP ranks us higher, we would go to the Rose Bowl. Also, it's been 13 years since we've been there. We could probably sell out the Rose Bowl with only our fans.
November 25th, 2019 at 1:37 PM ^
Agree, and I actually think they should take Minnesota if they can. The buzz from Minnesota folks would be off the charts and would seemingly bring a lot of people and interest to Pasadena.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:35 PM ^
I can imagine Minnesota beating Wisconsin, but barely. But I cannot imagine Minnesota playing OSU close on a domed neutral field. The Gophers are having a fine season but they would lose that game by at least 21 points.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:29 AM ^
This is all well and good but unfortunately it cannot possibly be correct.
The correct answer is we play Florida, only Florida and forever Florida and we play Florida in Florida in a Florida Bowl game.
If Florida is unavailable for any reason a suitable school from Florida will be substituted (like Florida State) and that bowl will remain in Florida.
It's a rule.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:32 AM ^
Unfortunately, a NY 6 bowl against Florida would be a very real possibility if we beat OSU but for some reason did not go to the Rose Bowl.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:34 AM ^
Most projections have Florida going to the Cotton Bowl which is now always against the top-ranked Group of 5 team.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:54 AM ^
An NY6 game against Florida would be impossible this year--the Big Ten and SEC can not meet in the NY6, except in the playoffs.
The Big Ten's only possibilities in the NY6 (not including the semis)--Rose v P12, Orange v ACC or Cotton v G5.
November 25th, 2019 at 11:57 AM ^
The only thing is that there is not going to be a second ACC NY6 team I don't think.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:02 PM ^
There has to be, unfortunately.
Assuming Clemson wins the ACC and finishes in the top 4, the Orange Bowl must take an ACC team to replace Clemson. That team (9-3 Wake Forest?) is going to be dreadful, but that team is going to be in the NY6 against a top-8 team from the SEC or B1G despite that fact.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:12 PM ^
If this is true (and I have no reason to doubt that it is) then I'm personally rooting for a match up of Wake Forrest and a very pissed off Alabama team.
That would be fun.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:19 PM ^
But what if Wake Forest wants it more?
November 25th, 2019 at 1:21 PM ^
Then Alabama only wins by 30.
November 25th, 2019 at 12:19 PM ^
If we end up playing Wake Forest in a bowl game I am going to kick my own ass.
Damn it ACC! Why do you suck so bad!
November 25th, 2019 at 12:49 PM ^
I didn't know that was a rule. I will look it up, but wanted to post that in my memory ND can replace the ACC's placeholder in these bowls-so could ND be in Orange?