Michigan Football 3rd in Connelly's Post-Spring SP+ Rankings
Here's the link($).
TAKEAWAYS:
- Michigan is 3rd overall (29.2), 7th in offense (42.0), and 4th in defense (12.9)
- They're the only team that's Top 7 on both sides of the ball
- Only three teams are Top 10 on both sides of the ball (Georgia, Bama, Mich)
- There's a clear Top 3.5, according Connelly.
- Georgia is 1st (29.9)
- Ohio State is 2nd (29.6)
- Michigan is 3rd (29.2)
- Bama is 4th (27.9)
- LSU is 5th (25.2)
- No other team cracks 24.0
- Around the Big Ten...
- The East has three great teams, two okay teams, and two bad teams
- Ohio State is 2nd (29.6)
- Michigan is 3rd (29.2)
- Penn State is 8th (23.5)
- Maryland is 40th (9.0)
- Michigan State is 42nd (7.9)
- Indiana is 71st (-3.6)
- Rutgers is 73rd (-4.0)
- The West has three good teams, three okay teams, and one very bad team...
- Wisconsin is 19th (15.8)
- Iowa is 29th (13.2)
- Minnesota is 31st (12.0)
- Illinois is 44th (7.0)
- Purdue is 48th (5.7)
- Nebraska is 49th (5.2)
- Northwestern is 83rd (-6.7)
- The East has three great teams, two okay teams, and two bad teams
- Michigan has the 7th best returning production at 77%
- Offense is 25th (75%) and defense is 5th (80%)
- Next highest Big Ten team is Wisconsin at 18th (73%)
- Ohio State is 38th (68%)
- 81st on offense (60%) and 12th on defense (77%)
- Michigan State is 94th(!) (57%)
- 111th on offense (48%) and 51st on defense (65%)
Sorry for all the bullet points.
Really gonna glory in some of those MSU ass-whuppins this season! Ten Million Dollar Man my tuchus!
Not to fuel the DISRESPEKT, but Sparty feels high at 42...
Yea, that's gonna self-correct before September closes.
I've got RCMB bookmarked for this season because the meltdowns are gonna be glorious. My one hope is that we hang a 2019-esque blowout on their heads. Last year was fine, but I want garbage time by the 3rd quarter this year.
More than one tuchus? Impressive.
Let all these analysts/pundits keep ranking OSU ahead of us. The perfect scenario.
I mean, I know the numbers say it will probably be a good season, but I'm a Michigan fan who started attending Michigan in 2004. I am conditioned that UM is cursed and everything will be bad. It's just a matter of time.
Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
As a fan who started watching as a kid in 1994, I feel some of my old confidence coming back. Hoping it can stay that way
Heck yeah, BK! The confidence IS back, and rightfully so. We have depth, coaching, recruiting, and most of all, a legit team-first culture. I'm going to enjoy every morsel of this ride because it can be fleeting.
We'll need a couple bounces our way but I feel this team is closer to 1997 than any team since.
With OSU's questions at QB and OL, I have no clue how you can logically put them above us
I agree it does seem odd. My guess is their looking at star ratings of the replacements (both QBs were 5 stars) as well as the new O Linemen (either 4 or 5 stars) and they're making the assumption that they'll play at a very high level right off the bat.
I would much rather have our starting 22 than theirs and definitely wouldn't swap coaching staffs for anything. Time will tell I guess.
What's even more odd is that the offensive linemen who are replacing the departed are NOT all four- or five-stars. Josh Fryar, a redshirt junior, will probably start at tackle, and he was only a three-star (albeit a high three-star). At center, there's still a battle between Carson Hinzman (a Top 250 recruit in 2022 who's never played center) and Jakob James (852nd ranked player on 247's 2020 composite). That feels like it could be a HUGE drop-off from the three drafted guys they have to replace.
Yea, I'm far more concerned about OSU's O-line than QB.
I see the O-line having enough struggles that could prevent them from winning one or two highly-competitive, tight games.
I think the QB play will be fine, other than being negatively impacted by the aforementioned.
You weren't nervous after McCord's spring game performance? I thought he looked very physically talented but very intellectually raw––lots of throws to receivers with guys draped over them, and some throws that just totally missed the mark.
I'll be nervous if he wets the bed against IU, YSU, or WKU. Otherwise, he's got summer workouts, fall camp, and the first three weeks of game action under his belt to be ready for ND & beyond.
And I don't put too much stock in spring game performances. Who knows if they were working on some very particular skills, like when a pitcher throws an inordinate number of changeups or other new pitch in a spring training game.
An objective look at the Spring game? Pretty clear you're not a Michigan fan!
Well, and I assume that in live-fire games, throws to "covered" MHJR et al will still look pretty good overall.
I think OSU will be 11-0 and ranked no worse than 2nd when they roll into AA. I hope we're ranked a couple spots behind them and are a slight underdog.
I predict that they will lose to ND, with their new star QB and playing at home.
Yeah, I cant believe people are looking past the ND game. AN osu will have their hands full. ND is at home and held their own at columbus last year.
I've said many times I think AN osu drops 1-2 games before coming to Michigan. They dont have that same confidence they used to have.
What they didn't notice was that Charmin is the new sponsor of all OSU radio broadcasts, and the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man has been seen roaming the streets of Columbus.
Thats the first thing i thought. I saw 3rd and thought "who are they putting 2nd? OSU?"
I don't know exactly how SP+ is calculated preseason, but I do know it's a quantitative algorithm not a qualitative analysis. So it's not really a matter of logic, just a matter of numbers and what the algorithm spits out. SP+ is pretty good as far the advanced stats go, but even the best advanced stats are mediocrely predictive when it comes to head-to-head matchups. The only meaningful takeaway from this is that SP+ expects Michigan and Ohio State to both be very very good.
There is a heavy component of past success to predict future success, which includes recruiting rankings. It's worth listening to Connelly's visits on the Solid Verbal as he typically explains his process very thoroughly.
Its because of recruiting rankings. OSU had an elite class in 2021 that is going into the third year and therefore the computer is expecting big things from them.
I think they're mostly just guys (besides the receivers lol) but the computer just sees stars on a page and projects from it
They’re going to get the benefit of the doubt because of all those recruiting stars. Because they have a stable of five star QBs and WRs, and recruit at an elite level across the board almost everywhere else.
OSU, in the aggregate, still recruits better (at least from a pure talent perspective) than Michigan does right now, so the computer expects more from them than it does Michigan.
I haven’t followed S&P closely since he was snatched up by ESPN and went behind the paywall, but there used to be a significant portion of the calculations that was based on prior year performance. This would be scaled back as the year progressed until it dropped to zero after six games. OSU put up good stats, better than ours on balance, last year. Bama didn’t and they slotted behind us. The quantized numbers are fun to look at, but weren’t of much use in predicting the outcome of the last two OSU games.
Do Connelly's number take into account how much MSU has lost this offseason? Because a mediocre team just lost a lot of their best talent and I suspect they'll be competing with Indiana for last in the East.
That's what Bill is selling --- that this SP+ is better than previous ones because this update accounts for the most recent roster updates.
But MSU also ranks higher (at least as regards rank --- moved up from 47th to 42nd) today than they did in February's SP+ rankings.
Intuitively, that feels off.
Anyway, folks can take Connelly for what he's worth, but personally I think his content has substantially regressed since joining ESPN. Which doesn't surprise me, ESPN often has that effect.
https://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/2023-espn-preseason-sp-rankings-michigan-3rd
There is no justification for MSU moving up after losing Keon Coleman. I'm sure it's something baked into the formula, like if they brought in 4 mediocre CBs that would more than make up for 1 outstanding WR on a team with an anemic offense.
To paraphrase Yogi Berra, statistics are 90% math. The other half is guessing.
For all the numbers work we do these days, there is no accounting for certain things. What were Bill's numbers for us coming off that 2020 season? He had us 17th, well behind OSU, PSU, Wisconsin, and even behind Iowa. We were well behind USC who ended up 4-8 and Florida who went 6-7. We were way behind Iowa St, who went 7-6 that year.
How does it feel in the MSU locker room after your starting QB and best WR bailed out, your recruiting classes are falling apart, and there's no hope for change at the top?
Not great, Bob. So let's see how it plays out. Maybe MeLLLLLL figures it out and all the change is a net positive and they manage a respectable season. But I douuuubt it.
I'd argue 2021 Michigan was actually a good pre-season prediction by Connelly. Connelly had them ranked 17th pre-season, but the consensus polls had them unranked (below 25). So while Connelly wasn't absolutely correct on 2021 Michigan (who finished #3), he was definitely directionally correct in how he differed from the mainstream.
If his preseason rankings have value, it would be whether, at a rate of >50%, his evaluation of teams beats the mainstream evaluation of teams (e.g., similar to methods for evaluating stock pickers).
As an exercise, I looked at 2021 as a whole. Among teams he had in his 2021 pre-season Top 25:
- Connelly was more bullish on Wisconsin, Miami, Penn State, Washington, Michigan, Auburn and Minnesota vs. the mainstream.
- He was more bearish on Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Indiana and LSU vs. the mainstream.
- Everyone else, his prediction was quite near the mainstream.
Results:
- Penn State, Washington, Miami and Auburn were misses, often big misses, particularly UW (these teams ranged from 7-5 to 4-8 in 2021).
- He was definitely correct on Michigan and Minnesota, they both over-achieved significantly.
- Wisconsin - finished 9-4, didn't win the West. I'll be charitable and call this a push, though if it leans one way it leans toward a miss by Connelly, given he had them #6 pre-season (polls had them #12).
- He was definitely right on Indiana and LSU. Very correct.
- Cincinnati was a miss. They were a CFP team and didn't look completely out-of-place.
- Notre Dame was a miss too, though a lesser one.
- Texas A&M - finished 8-4, T4 in the SEC West. I'll call it a push, though they're a bit the opposite of Wisconsin - they lean toward Connelly being correct.
Net, net: those aggregate 2021 predictions, he's a bit below 50% in terms of whether he was correct in when he differed from the mainstream. So, he didn't provide obvious value. Buy the index fund. :-)
A larger exercise would be to do this for multiple years. Maybe I'll do that some day, but I'd guess buying the index fund might be correct there too.
People are misremembering MSU’s 2022 season a bit. Qualitatively, they were a lot better than Indiana (even though they lost head-to-head), so I wouldn’t predict them to be at IU’s level this year, even despite the transfers.
Last year, State finished 54th in Sagarin’s ratings. That’s one spot behind Purdue. (Indiana was 86th.) U-M scored 2 TDs against MSU, one of which was set up by a botched punt snap inside the MSU 10.
The Coleman transfer is a bad look, but I’m not sure a receiver changes a team’s outlook. It’s the QB situation that’s the big question.
I want Michigan to continue to be ranked/picked below Ohio State in as many fora as possible. Gotta maintain that underdog edge
So basically everyone on earth is expecting OSU new QB to be Dan Marino??
i hope that is true, since Dan never won a title!
But that doesnt define a QBs legacy though.
And yes youve found CJ Strouds burner account.
No. He just needs to be good enough.
College rosters turn over all the time. Good teams break in a new QB roughly every other year, and the world keeps spinning.
This is just so wrong. Michigan's offense is quite a bit ahead of Michigan's defense.
B1G West has a very bad team. So we know who will win the West this year :P
Illinois deserves more respect...heck they almost beat us in the big house... Beilema can coach.
They got absolutely gutted by departures...
- QB Tommy DeVito. Questionable as to who fills in for him.
- RB Chase Brown. Fifth round draft pick, workhorse-back, led the country in carries.
- CB Devon Witherspoon. First round draft pick, best cover corner per PFF.
- CB Jartavius Martin. Second round draft pick.
- S Sydney Brown. Third round draft pick, and super solid HSP.
They also lost their stud DC Ryan Walters.
Agree that Bielema can coach, but that's a LOT of attrition for a school that doesn't recruit a bunch of talent.
What previous MSU coach does Tucker remind you of the most?
He came in like Dantonio and left like John L (after last years antics)
As most of us know it is really painful when you mix +100 on returning players rankings with the loss of key skill players.
This is the first time in decades I feel like we should beat OSU. Beating bama and/or uga still feels like it would be quite the upset. Bpone makes me think this means we lose to osu, msu, and someone else this year and never get the chance. Bah!
The narrative on 11 Warriors seems to be that their defense will skyrocket up this year because Jim Knowles needed the first year to install his defense, etc. How many times did we rationalize that same sort of logic over the years and it never made a difference? And it still doesn't explain how their offense only scored 3 points in the 2nd half against us.
Nice points.
I think that 3 in the 2nd half was from Stroud's odd play under pressure. The new guy, Kyle McCord, will be better under pressure. I'm actually concerned about their offense because of him. He doesn't have the flash. But they're going to move the chains.
When you reference that Stroud played poorly under pressure are you accounting for the fact that Michigan's pass rush was objectively atrocious last year?
I completely disagree. If McCord was better than Stroud, he would have played in front of Stroud. I think McCord will be a good QB but he won’t be stroud. OSU needs an elite QB the way Day plays Big 12 football in just playing a shootout and I don’t think they have the QB or the Oline for those types of games this year. Go Blue!