Michigan favored by 32 over SMU
Some gambling spread numbers for this weekend:
Michigan by 32 over SMU
Ohio St by 12.5 over TCU, at JerryLand
Wisconsin by 21.5 over BYU
Auburn by 10 over LSU, in what could be the best game of the weekend
Miami only favored by 9.5 at Toledo
Arizona St favored by 3 over San Diego St
https://247sports.com/college/michigan/Article/College-football-odds-Week-3-121668115
September 10th, 2018 at 11:24 AM ^
SMU should make Western look like the Patriots
September 10th, 2018 at 11:26 AM ^
Yeah, I would take UM -32. WMU is a much better team than SMU. My only concern with that line is how much of the game the 2nd and 3rd strings play and does that limit margin of victory at all.
September 10th, 2018 at 11:31 AM ^
I don’t think I’d touch 32 unless we KNOW that one’s going to approach a 50 point win. A 35-3 score where we spend the entire 2nd half playing the bottom of our depth chart would put us right on the spread.
September 10th, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^
Bingo, the line is right about where Harbaugh will often pack up his starters. Assuming we avert disaster (the WMU outcome is encouraging) and football doesn't suddenly become weird, betting on the SMU game is really about how the backups fare.
That. . . might not be a bad bet. They did pretty well against WMU.
September 10th, 2018 at 12:46 PM ^
Problem with huge spreads is that your bet depends way too much on a coaching decisions about (1) when to bring in 2nd then 3rd string, and (2) at what point in the game to reduce it to 4 simple offensive plays to avoid further embarrassing the body bag opponent.
That said, JH seems to be a 'don't call off the hounds so soon' sort of guy.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:26 PM ^
Harbaugh seems to take his foot off the pedal with a 40-point lead in the latter half of the 3rd quarter. Thing is, if the 2nd string offense stalls and the opponent scores a TD off the back-up D, there's your spread. The infamous Rutgers blowout was an exception because it was a road game and they were *that* bad. Harbaugh didn't have a squad of walk-ons with which to slow down the game, and even moving back-ups around and running up the gut we kept scoring.
SMU just might be that bad. We'll see, but I'm thinking the difference here might be the 2nd string defense. There aren't as many playmakers on the defensive line but the entire 2nd string would be a functional-if-not-great B1G defense, and SMU could struggle against that. WMU seemed to.
That said, football can irrational whenever it wants. There've already been a number of weird games in the conference.
September 10th, 2018 at 4:40 PM ^
Yes, I also was thinking of the Rutgers blow out in '16.
2017 did not have a lot of blowouts. But in 2016 I seems to remember other games than Rutgers where JH did not call off the hounds until sort of later in games.
SMU might end up like Rutgers '16, where no matter how simple the 2nd half play calling, and no matter if reserves are in, Michigan will still string together a lot of first downs and even TDs...
September 10th, 2018 at 11:27 AM ^
No line for MSU vs. Bye Week? Bets on if they can get through it without anybody being arrested?
September 10th, 2018 at 11:33 AM ^
I’ll take the over if the line is less than 2.
September 10th, 2018 at 11:55 AM ^
Could this be the 3rd week in a row they drop in the rankings?
That would be delicious.
September 10th, 2018 at 12:20 PM ^
I could see that. Especially if A&M torches LA Monroe...I could see them ending up in the 20-25 somewhere and consequentially bumping State down.
September 10th, 2018 at 12:50 PM ^
I think all of the teams knocking on the door of #25 are 2-0. I dont see how a team that's looked as pathetic as Staee can still be ranked over some 3-0 teams like the aforementioned A&M.
If Utah knocks off Washington they'll absolutely be ranked. Same with NC State over West Virginia.
BC, Maryland, and Colorado have very winnable games this weekend and have all received between 20-30 votes.
September 10th, 2018 at 12:36 PM ^
Why the hell do they already have a bye week? The season just started.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:24 PM ^
Bye -12 over Sparty
September 10th, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^
OSU at 12.5 looks like a sucker’s bet.
September 10th, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^
Any OSU line is a sucker's bet. They have a consistent habit of dorfing at least one game a year and there is no way to predict which one it'll be.
September 10th, 2018 at 12:41 PM ^
Here's to them dorfing the game the Saturday after Thanksgiving.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:14 PM ^
That would be nice, wouldn't it? But it's usually only once a season, so in any given year it's unlikely we'd be that lucky. It did sort of happen in 2013, though, so I believe The Game isn't immune to Meyer's dorfing habit.
September 10th, 2018 at 2:20 PM ^
Good point. I wonder what they're historical performance is ATS while under Meyer
September 10th, 2018 at 11:30 AM ^
that OSU line is very strange....... thought it'd be around 20 honestly.
September 10th, 2018 at 11:32 AM ^
Bingo. A 27-14 final would be an OSU cover.
September 10th, 2018 at 12:58 PM ^
TCU is going to give OSU a game, OSU has been playing really bad teams so far.
September 10th, 2018 at 11:31 AM ^
Survey - Say Michigan covers and wins by 33. Would you personally rather see:
- 36-3, or
- 57-24
?
September 10th, 2018 at 11:34 AM ^
I think I’d rather see 36-3. People would be jumping out of windows around here if SMU touches our defense up for 24.
September 10th, 2018 at 11:34 AM ^
Obvious answer...go up 33 in the first half and shut it down. 36-3.
September 10th, 2018 at 11:34 AM ^
36-3 for sure. But there’s almost no way it’s that close. I imagine a similar score as the WMU game.
September 10th, 2018 at 11:34 AM ^
36-3 with the 36 coming in 2.5 quarters.
September 10th, 2018 at 12:49 PM ^
The former.
The latter would mean the D is not going to be top 5.
The former would mean that JH brought the 2nd string in half way through the 3rd after the 1st string was near perfect.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^
Yes 36-3, our defense still has to be the strength of this team.
September 10th, 2018 at 11:34 AM ^
Ohio State probably wins but I doubt they cover. This is pretty much an away game for them, although I'm sure their fans will travel well.
27-21 Ohio State.
September 10th, 2018 at 11:36 AM ^
There are a lot of OSU fans out there. Being at jerry world really helps them as opposed to being at TCU. I think they win pretty easily, maybe 35-14
September 10th, 2018 at 11:43 AM ^
Easy to travel well when your job comes with a sleeping compartment.
September 10th, 2018 at 12:20 PM ^
Dollars to donuts there are more OSU fans there.
September 10th, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^
Sorry, but I'm on a diet.
September 10th, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^
FPI has us a favorite over MSU now, favorite to win out until OSU.
September 10th, 2018 at 11:55 AM ^
I have a hard time seeing us going undefeated until the OSU game, but it doesn't look as crazy now as it did a couple weeks ago. MSU is still going to be a disgustingly tough game, but they're beatable. And aside from OSU, the two toughest teams on the schedule come to Ann Arbor. PSU looks vulnerable, and with Wisconsin, you shut down Jonathan Taylor you shut down their entire offense.
I bet there's a loss hidden in there between now and OSU, but I'd love to be wrong.
September 10th, 2018 at 12:17 PM ^
MSU is very beatable. Their secondary has gotten no better from last year and Patterson can definitely exploit that weakness. Penn State looks very human without Barkley in the backfield. Wisconsin and OSU are the games that are toss-ups in my mind....well toss-up might be optimistic when it comes to the Buckeyes. Dwayne Haskins is really good and the Joey Bosa / Jon Runyan Jr. match-up is pretty terrifying.
September 10th, 2018 at 12:24 PM ^
Every fricken year we say MSU looks very beatable as they struggle early. Then they look like an entirely different team when they play us. I feel like some of our fans will never learn. Add in the fact that they will have their LT and best cb back by then, that game will be a war. Expecting anything else is foolish.
September 10th, 2018 at 12:41 PM ^
Agree re: MSU. It will be a war. I still lean to MSU, but I hope I'm wrong.
Honestly it's still looking like MSU, Wisconsin, OSU lean toward a loss, in my opinion. MSU might be the easiest of those three, although at least we get Wisconsin in Ann Arbor. You can say that to shut down Wisconsin all you have to do is shut down Taylor, but really what you need to do is shut down that offensive line. With our D-line injuries... we'll see. We could win, and I hope we do.
September 10th, 2018 at 12:55 PM ^
Look, you have to actually look at the facts.
And based on the facts of the first two games MSU is not very good at all.
By a very side margin Michigan is the better team through the first two weeks.
Michigan is a team with just one weakness--offensive tackles. MSU is a team with several weaknesses--entire o-line is terrible, secondary bad, no running game. Plus, Patterson is better than Lewerke.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:00 PM ^
I’m not ready to call Shea better than Lewerke just yet. And we should learn to throw out what MSU looks like in the first 2 games. It’s a pattern we have all seen before.
September 10th, 2018 at 2:58 PM ^
Exactly. When MSU struggled against Wofford or whoever it was a few years ago, I thought they were done. Too many times they look terrible early season, then play great against us. Sometimes they look terrible against everyone else but great against only us. The hate is strong in them.
September 10th, 2018 at 4:46 PM ^
Again, look at facts. In 2017 MSU did not 'play great' against Michigan.
They looked like a mediocre team early in '17, and then played...mediocre against Michigan.
Unfortunately, M also played mediocre and came up short in a monsoon (partly due to failing to put up some available points in the 1st half).
With Lewerke and good receivers MSU is going to get first downs and some scores. But Michigan in '18 is not starting O'Korn and is not the youngest two deep in CFB anymore.
MSU's secondary is suspect. MSU will (as always) stack the box and force Michigan to pass. But this year Michigan has the guys to make them pay for 8 or 9 defenders in the box.
September 10th, 2018 at 7:06 PM ^
I think you have a significant chance of being right. I sure hope that you are! I would love to see Shea, DPJ, Nico, Oliver, et al. lighting up the scoreboard there.
September 10th, 2018 at 2:59 PM ^
Every fricken year we say MSU looks very beatable as they struggle early. Then they look like an entirely different team when they play us.
I think this narrative is overdone. MSU was a 12-win team three years ago and never led the game against us, winning on the last play. Last year they were a 10-win team (to our 8 wins) and won by four.
There might be a grain of truth to it regarding the 2016 game, but OTOH we led that one by 20 points in the 4th quarter. Truthfully, MSU basically plays against us how you'd expect them to.
September 10th, 2018 at 12:49 PM ^
I won't dispute that MSU is beatable. They definitely are, at least at this juncture. But I've watched MSU enough under Dantonio to know that this is part of their annual formula. Look sloppy in the first game or two, lose to an OOC opponent like ND, Oregon or ASU, and then round to form by October and look like the team that no one wants to play. Until I see different, this is all perfectly normal for MSU.
As for that OSU game.....I don't know. The OL is going to have come leaps and bounds from where it is now for us to even have a shot. If it doesn't, Nick Bosa could quite possibly decapitate Patterson before that game is over. And then even with the defense, now it has to defend against a QB who can legitimately throw the ball. And still has enough athleticism to keep defenses honest. A LOTTTT of things are going to have to go right for us to win that game.
September 10th, 2018 at 1:29 PM ^
I've said for years that urban's blind loyalty to JT gave Michigan a better shot at beating them. They'll be a far tougher opponent now they have a legitimate NFL caliber qb.
September 12th, 2018 at 8:29 AM ^
Haskins and Martell have both looked very good thus far
September 10th, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
Another good opportunity for the O line to get better.