October 28th, 2018 at 9:15 AM ^
Member when people thought the defense was a letdown after 4 games tho
October 28th, 2018 at 9:34 AM ^
the offense was the problem. But it turned around. Go blue!
October 28th, 2018 at 9:38 AM ^
Offense was only the problem in week 1. Otherwise it’s gotten it done.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:32 AM ^
Are you saying you have full confidence in the offense for the rest of the season? I love the optimism, but we still have holes and much-needed growth. I still think the defense is going to have to bail the offense out big time in a future game.
October 28th, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^
As good as they have been, I don't even have full confidence in the defense shutting down McSorely and Haskins. So no, I don't have full faith in the offense either, but they have been consistently trending the right direction and the OL wears teams down in the second half.
October 28th, 2018 at 1:05 PM ^
Shit can happen on any given game, so you can never have "full confidence" in anything. But the O has had a solid year since week 2.
October 28th, 2018 at 9:49 AM ^
In the early weeks, especially after the opening game against ND, many posts here said that other teams had caught up with Don Brown's defenses, yadda, yadda. Turns out that his defenses are still good after all.
October 28th, 2018 at 9:52 AM ^
Pepridge Faahm ramembaahs.
October 28th, 2018 at 9:55 AM ^
Mmmm... Delicious sausage!
October 28th, 2018 at 10:33 AM ^
Pepperidge Farns remembers
October 28th, 2018 at 10:54 AM ^
Oh, I member.
October 28th, 2018 at 9:21 AM ^
Let's win the Big 10.
October 28th, 2018 at 9:42 AM ^
Great idea.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^
And ironically not go to the rose bowl.
October 28th, 2018 at 1:57 PM ^
Your ideas intrigue me, and I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.
October 28th, 2018 at 9:22 AM ^
Hell of a test this week!
October 28th, 2018 at 11:55 AM ^
Tougher than last week
October 28th, 2018 at 9:32 AM ^
According to the broadcast of the MSU, Purdue game, Mork said Michigan has the best defensive line he's seen since the Alabama team that waxed them in the playoffs 3 yrs ago.
October 28th, 2018 at 9:50 AM ^
I heard that too. Interesting.
October 28th, 2018 at 9:52 AM ^
Without Gary, no less...
October 28th, 2018 at 11:41 AM ^
Heard that. Still can't believe he said that. Had to be some sort of TV trickery.
October 28th, 2018 at 12:00 PM ^
Only mentioned as an excuse for his offense
October 28th, 2018 at 1:39 PM ^
I'm going to guess that's a product of MSU's O-line being turrrrible. Michigan alone has had better D-lines than this in recent years
October 28th, 2018 at 9:51 AM ^
Still a small sample size. We have to play the #15 scoring offense next week and the #2 the 3rd Saturday in November. We'll see what it's ranked when the season is over. I'd take a few wins even if that means we drop a few spots in the defensive rankings.
FWIW Iowa is #3 in total defense. So, we may need score 31 points next week to win. No one has held us under 30 points at home yet this season, but Wiscy is the only ranked team we've played at home. On the road ND, MSU, & NW all held us under 30. I think it will be a good game and I like our chances, but I do expect our overall defensive numbers to dip somewhat by the end of the season unless we just totally dominate Rutgers & Indiana to offset PSU & OSU.
October 28th, 2018 at 9:55 AM ^
To caveat Iowa's defense - the best team they played prior to PSU, by a mile and a half, was Wisconsin. And they lost that game. Decent team with a good defense, but I don't think its a world beating defense.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:44 AM ^
Iowa D is sort of like MSU D, except less aggressive/risk taking.
Both play really sound and don't make many errors/busts. Both get production almost every year above what recruiting would suggest.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:04 AM ^
Ohio St offense is #3
Penn St #28.
To Michigan's credit theyve played good offenses.
Neb #19
Wisc #36
Notre Dame #38
October 28th, 2018 at 11:10 AM ^
and our yards allowed per game are overstated because of blowout games. . .Is there a metric out there that takes that into consideration?
October 28th, 2018 at 10:17 AM ^
This is why you use opponent-adjusted stats.
But, if you prefer, at least throw out the PSU non-conference murderer’s row of Horror U, Pitt, and Kent St, and look at conference scoring numbers. PSU’s juggernaut of an offense has scored... eight points fewer than Michigan, in as many games. (PSU: 33.8/game; Michigan: 35.6; OSU 35.8).
Maryland has scored 32 points per conference game.
On the other side of the ball — PSU is allowing 24.8 points per game, only a touch more than OSU’s — and Maryland’s — 23.6. Michigan is allowing 13.6.
PSU is not good. They are basically Maryland with a less gimmicky offense. The fact that they could score 30 at home against Iowa (21 points per game allowed) does not somehow mean that they’ll score more points than Michigan has allowed to an opponent all year in a game in Ann Arbor while being coached by James Franklin.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:27 AM ^
It's like Mark Twain said. "There are lies, damn lies, and non-opponent-adjusted statistics."
October 28th, 2018 at 10:50 AM ^
Indiana has the #2 scoring offense in the nation? The Game is almost always the fourth Saturday in November. Also I think you’re referencing Total Offense. PSU and OSU are T8th and 7th in Scoring Offense.
October 28th, 2018 at 2:07 PM ^
Yes I'm referencing total offense just like the entire post references (not points against).
October 28th, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
Going into yesterday Wisconsin had the S&P #3 offense, PSU had the 18th ranked offense. We've faced a much better offense than PSU and shut them down.
The difference between Wisconsin and PSU's offense according to S&P is 6.2. That's larger than the difference between PSU and ND (ranked #41, 4.8 difference) or Nebraska (ranked # 50, 5.7 difference). We've faced an offense a stratosphere above PSU and shut them down, and also shut down offense's closer to PSU's talent level than PSU is close to Wisconsin.
Also PSU didn't have a good offensive showing against Iowa. PSU had 6.7 YPA throwing and 3.4 YPC rushing. They averaged 4.9 yards per play, which isn't good. Granted that does include the bad snap for a safety as -25 yards rushing, so if you ignore that it's 4.2 YPC and 5.3 yards per play total, which is better but still not good. Sanders only averaged 3.6 YPC and 51 of those rushing yards were on one 51 yard McSorely TD. Remove that and they averaged 2.8 YPC. Iowa also had 3 sacks,
They scored 30 points, but they had one sustained drive. They had a 1 play 3 yard TD drive, the 51 yard McSorely TD, a 24 yard FG drive, and a 5 yard FG drive. They had one 10 play, 85 yard TD drive, besides that everything was set up by an Iowa turnover or special teams play (except for one big run). This also doesn't include a McSorely pick six.
October 28th, 2018 at 1:08 PM ^
FWIW Iowa is #3 in total defense. So, we may need score 31 points next week to win
To interrupt this fun transitive property exercise, MSU is rated lower than that and they held PSU to 17. OSU held them to 26. And all three of these games took place in State College.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:16 AM ^
October 28th, 2018 at 10:22 AM ^
The better offensive production goes hand in hand with better d numbers.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:39 AM ^
More importantly the time of possession. That Bama offense wasn’t the most explosive unit, but they did know how to run and control the ball.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:28 AM ^
Our defense is good, but I think weak opponents have skewed it. PSU is a good test because we do have some problems with mobile QBs -- see ND. I still think our 2016 defense was better.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:47 AM ^
Hmm, tough comparison.
The 2016 defense was not nearly as strong at LB as this year's defense. The 2016 group was slightly better at DT and safety, but I'm not sure those advantages offset the difference at LB.
It also seems like the 2018 defense is better at creating havoc and turnovers, though certainly much of that just comes down to dumb luck.
Player-for-player, here's who I'd take:
WDE: 2018 Winovich/Uche/Hutchinson > 2016 Charlton/Winovich
3T: 2016 Hurst/Godin > 2018 Kemp/Dwumfour/Marshall
NT: 2016 Glasgow/Mone > 2018 Solomon/Mone
Anchor: 2016 Wormley/Gary > 2018 Gary/Paye
MLB: 2018 Bush >>> 2016 Bolden
WLB 2018 Ross/Gil = 2016 McCray
Viper: 2016 Peppers = 2018 Hudson
FCB: 2016 Lewis > 2018 Hill
BCB: 2018 Long >> 2016 Clark/Stribling
3rd CB: 2018 Watson = 2016 L. Hill
FS: 2016 Thomas > 2018 Kinnel
SS: 2018 Metellus > 2016 D. Hill
October 28th, 2018 at 11:00 AM ^
Can’t agree with your turnover statement. This year’s D has forced only 7 turnovers in 8 games; 7 interceptions and zero fumble recoveries.
THIS defense hasn’t gotten a single fumble? That’s like … HOW?
October 28th, 2018 at 11:14 AM ^
To fumble, teams must have possession. Too many 3-and-outs. ;)
Seriously, that’s a mind-boggling stat. It doesn’t quite tell the whole story — Michigan did recover one fumble against MSU, but that was on special teams, and they recovered a muffed punt earlier in the season (Nebraska?), which isn’t a fumble at all. But it still seems that with as many quarterback hits as they’ve been getting, they’d have caused a few more fumbles and been able to recover at least a couple.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:53 AM ^
Well, perhaps I am just wrong about the havoc thing. This year's team has made several havoc plays in key situations, like the Metellus INT return against SMU, the Lavert Hill pick-six against Wisconsin, and a couple drive-killing sacks to facilitate the Northwestern comeback, so please forgive the feelingsball take.
October 28th, 2018 at 12:00 PM ^
Two total recoveries from three total fumbles. As you point out, the two recoveries were on special teams. That leaves one more opponent fumble which I don’t recall but assume it came from their offense.
So, at best, our opponents’ offenses have fumbled ONCE in eight games (and recovered it)! I … I can’t even comprehend that! Even the best units benefit from their opponents simply screwing up sometimes. But our ipponents simply don’t bobble snaps, have bad handoff exchanges, or lose the ball in a tackle. Meaning our defense is the best in the nation all on its own, and has gotten basically no help from chaos and chance.
October 28th, 2018 at 1:58 PM ^
To be honest that's part of it. The Michigan defense has stopped a ton of drives after 3 or 4 plays. Fewer snaps mean fewer opportunities to fumble. Plus there's the one against ND that miraculously bounced right back to the hands of the fumbler. Bah, that one still annoys the hell out of me.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:09 AM ^
A great post.
Peppers 2016 = Hudson 2018 is not wrong. But... Maybe Peppers had a greater impact in 2016 than Hudson has in 2018.
In 2016 the way M used Peppers on D sort of forced opponents to game plan around him. Don't think that is true for Hudson in 2018 (even though is he is excellent).
In 2016 Peppers really took away so many outside runs, screen passes, etc. He just blew up most everything on the outside/edge. Teams had to game plan around his individual skills/play.
Seems like M is using Bush's speed at LB (plus just the overall D, including Hudson) to limit those sorts of plays this year. Not relying on the viper position to do this stuff in 2018 the way they relied on Peppers on 2016.
That is just my memory. Stats may prove me wrong. Don't know.
October 28th, 2018 at 12:01 PM ^
Peppers was definitely better at killing screens. I think Hudson is the better blitzer. Peppers probably had a bit more speed to the edge but Hudson is better at taking on blocks. They're both great players.
Good point about teams game-planning around Peppers. I think the main guys teams game-plan around on the 2018 team are probably Bush and Winovich. The 2016 team didn't have a guy like Bush at ILB--perhaps if they did, Peppers would have been less of a focus, and maybe would have looked even more dominant than he did?
If someone wants to come out and say that Peppers was just better, that's fine. Peppers was taller and a more athletic, and hence played on offense, returned punts, and went in the first round of the draft--so there is plenty to support that argument. But in terms of what they actually brought to the defense in the respective seasons, I personally found it too close to call.
October 28th, 2018 at 12:11 PM ^
Too close to call for me too.
Just that Peppers was surrounded with different skill sets in 2016 than the skill sets that surround Hudson in 2018.
Having a really fast and fully matured Devin Bush in 2018 changes the way Brown has to use Hudson. Having a slower LB corps in 2016 affects the way Peppers was used.
Hard to make comparisons. Both are great.
Maybe a fast Devin Bush type LB is actually more important to the D. Brown D than a Peppers level athletic freak at viper?
October 28th, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^
Don't believe your lyin' eyes.
October 28th, 2018 at 1:15 PM ^
we do have some problems with mobile QBs -- see ND.
ND had 24 points and 302 total yards, and that it took some luck for them to even get that - they won a couple of 50-50 bombs, had drives extended by penalties, and Michigan dropped a few potential interceptions.
October 28th, 2018 at 1:25 PM ^
I suspect “Michigan can’t beat mobile QBs” to be this week’s overused statement that finally gets put to bed, after “Michigan can’t win big games” and “Michigan can’t win big games on the road / Michigan can’t beat rivals.”