Michigan Basketball- 6 games remaining Projections

Submitted by goblue85 on

Michigan basketball is 6-6 right now with six games left.

At Illinois

State

Ohio

At Maryland

At NW

Rutgers

Can Michigan get to 9-9 or 10-8?    I'm hoping for a strong finish to help for next year.  Should be fun assuming Caris stays!

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Padog

February 11th, 2015 at 10:38 AM ^

This is how I see it playing out:
@ Illinois Win
State Win
OSU Loss
@ Maryland Loss
@ Northwestern Win
Rutgers Win
That's 4-2 and then 2 wins in the B1G tourney gets us on the edge of the bubble.



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Joined: 08/27/2010

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ST3

February 11th, 2015 at 10:52 AM ^

they won at MSU without the star guards. They've got a tough team. For us, the big question is, which team shows up, the one that got beat bad at home against Iowa, or the one that took Wisconsin, MSU, and Indiana down to the wire? I have no clue, which makes the end of this season more interesting than one would think having lost our 2 best players to injury.

Joined: 09/11/2010

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Blue Since B.C.

February 11th, 2015 at 12:02 PM ^

Unfortunately, both of those Mich teams that you mentioned still lost all 4 of those games.

I think we're at risk of coming out really flat against Illinois, after the latest road heartbreak in Bloomington.  But a 9 - 9 Big Ten season, given all of the injuries, would still be an accomplishment.

Camp Sanderson off-season for Ricky, Kam, Dawkins, MAAR, etc.  and a Caris return and the future is still bright.

Joined: 09/17/2013

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Muttley

February 11th, 2015 at 10:50 AM ^

w/ 2 very bad losses and no marquee wins.  Not even close.

I think our easiest path to the NCAAs is to win the BTT.  To secure an at-large bid, I think we must either go on a seven game winning streak (including the first game of the BTT) or finish the regular season 5-1 and make it to the BTT final game.

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MGoPoints: -73245

ak47

February 11th, 2015 at 11:06 AM ^

big names, mediocre teams.  State is a couple more losses from missing the tourney, they aren't the kind of team that can erase the look of the NJIT or EMU losses.  Really the best way for Michigan to get an at large spot would be to finish 5-1 down the stretch with one of the wins being over a Maryland team that you want to root for in every other game they play since they are our last shot at a marquee win and are least moderately vulnerable.  We would then need to get to the semis of the big ten tournament to be on the bubble, finals to fill ok about our chances.  

Joined: 05/05/2011

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AnklePick

February 11th, 2015 at 10:46 AM ^

But I still think we will be ok even if Caris leaves. When Caris is on, he is light out, that only seems to be about 30% of the time. When he is NOT on fire, he tends to over dribble, make a few turnovers a game, force shots, drive to the rim late in the shot clock (granted that was due to other offensive deficiencies). I just think we have better ball movement when he isnt in the line up. Great kid, high character, baller for sure, just don't think we NEED him back next year in order to make a run at things. 

 

P.S. What is up with our air balls this year. Between Caris, Zak, Chatman, and MAAR I have seen at least 15 air balls this year. Never seen anything like it.

Joined: 12/02/2014

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champswest

February 11th, 2015 at 10:55 AM ^

My gut feeling is that we finish 2-4, winning only the last two. However, I would not be that surprised if we do better than that. The tournament is very unlikely.

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MGoPoints: 25916

LSAClassOf2000

February 11th, 2015 at 11:47 AM ^

At 13-11 right now, by the raw numbers they probably would have to go 4-2 at worst to even have the slimmest chance of backing into the NCAA Tournament (0.2% for a 17-win team on TeamRankings), but of course that isn't taking resume into consideration at that point. 

Personally, I've sort of resigned myself to the possibility of going 2-4 with the wins being Northwestern and Rutgers (the two opponents of the remaining six I am pretty sure we could handle right now), but I would not be at all shocked if we stole one of those other four games and ended up 3-3 down the stretch. Which one? If asked, I would say the MSU game right now might be the best "up for grabs" candidate. 

Joined: 01/07/2011

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superstringer

February 11th, 2015 at 11:51 AM ^

If we win out the regular season, we'd be on the bubble.  We aren't winning out.  I think the ONLY chance we have to make the NCAA is to win the B1G, and frankly, that means 4 games in 4 days with a depleated squad.  Not holding my breath.

Beilien has done an unbelievable job with this crew.  He deserves COTY in the B1G, considernig the near misses.  I'm not sure I see a coach who deserves it more (Purdue and Illinois prolly will be considered).  This team can have some great support/role players for a future championship team -- but needs some big guns, e.g. Caris or someone coming in.

Just, this isn't a tournament team, those multiple home losses are devastating to the resume.  NIT or bust, peeps.

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MGoPoints: 18176

ak47

February 11th, 2015 at 12:38 PM ^

I love Beilein and he has done a great job the second half of the season but those NJIT and EMU losses came with a full squad and they are what is holding us back.  Win those two games and 4-2 down the stretch is on the bubble not in the tourney.  You can give credit to Beilein but we shot ourselves in the foot with a healthy Caris and moderately healthy Walton and before the flu hit.

Joined: 05/05/2011

MGoPoints: 33614

Jimmyisgod

February 11th, 2015 at 1:13 PM ^

I know the committee doesn't count one of our wins because it was against a DII team.  So that begs the unfortunate question, if we go 2-4 or 3-3 and lose in round 1 of the conference toruney, do we get an NIT bid?  We're talkin 14 or 15 wins to the committee in those cases.

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