Michigan 8th in SP+
Ranked #26 in Offense, #8 in Defense, #3 Special Teams. The defense has been solid but my guess is the O and D rankings move towards each other a bit as the season progresses. Other notables:
3--OSU
6--PSU
10--Wiscy
21--Maryland
22--Nebraska
24--MSU
49--Washington
October 3rd, 2021 at 1:50 PM ^
Like is this data used to determine Coaches or AP poll, or used for playoff or bowl game selections? Or is it just nice to have data that realistically doesn't mean anything except a data point?
October 3rd, 2021 at 1:52 PM ^
Pretty sure Vegas uses something similar as their lines are often in line with S&P+ predictions.
But no, it doesn't mean anything practical.
October 3rd, 2021 at 1:58 PM ^
Like is this data used to determine Coaches or AP poll, or used for playoff
No. You have to add a politician to the mix to get that.
October 3rd, 2021 at 1:58 PM ^
Compare it to KenPom rankings in basketball. It's supposed to be predictive of what should happen if 2 teams play. Some people might use it in their voting but nothing official.
October 3rd, 2021 at 3:23 PM ^
I don't know why you're getting negged for this question, other than maybe it could have been worded a bit better. But on it's merits, I'm just reading this as "what is S&P+" and why does it have value?
SP+ is a statistical-based analysis created by a guy named Bill Connelly. Connelly was picked up by ESPN a few years and they put most of his analysis behind their ESPN+ content paywall. As MGoBlog is pretty "smart sports" heavy at times, it's well liked around here.
Per Connelly himself:
What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
It is, as always, important to note that SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
As far as AP, or Coaches poll, no... those are just popularity polls. Who's cow is the prettiest from week to week, and pretty heavily based on "what have you done for me lately" data. That said, it may indirectly affect those two polls, as you have to assume some writers/coaches would potentially look at stats-heavy "computers" to help them make their decisions, although common thought is the coaches just say "duh", don't care, and then give it to their SID's to fill out. Nothing is ever as reductive as common thought, but even in this world, maybe an SID looks at SP+ before filling out a coach's poll.
Why do we care? Aka is it just a random data point that doesn't mean anything... yes and no. SP+ like mentioned above by Connelly, is intended to be predictive. So, if the good guys are looking good, that potentially means that we're looking good for outcomes down the road. But as the saying goes, "Computers don't play games" so, the outcomes are just a prediction at the best. A data point. True. Also, some people like it for gambling. I like to flip coins and use predictive cephlopods for that, but to each their own.
October 3rd, 2021 at 5:46 PM ^
I was wondering the same thing about the downvotes. It seemed like a valid question.
October 4th, 2021 at 12:51 AM ^
He's probably getting negged because he's a downer in a bunch of other posts as well. He's in the FPI post saying he doesn't care and there's no trophy for it and Michigan needs to keep winning. Everyone knows there's no trophy for your SP+ ranking. So I didn't see it as an honest question about how championships or the playoffs are actually determined.
October 3rd, 2021 at 1:51 PM ^
Wisconsin at #10? Actually winning games should count.
October 3rd, 2021 at 1:53 PM ^
S&P is about per play outcomes, so frequent anomalies (which is to say, having a shit turnover margin) doesn't impact it as much as it does the real world.
October 3rd, 2021 at 2:52 PM ^
Which also explains how Maryland can be ranked as high as it is after their disaster on Friday night.
October 3rd, 2021 at 2:22 PM ^
SP+ is a predictive tool and not meant to be used the way you're doing it.
October 3rd, 2021 at 3:21 PM ^
Yes winning matters, but IMHO strength of schedule isn't considered enough. I'm not saying Wisconsin should be ranked but their three losses are to PSU, ND and Michigan.
Hypothetical team A loses close games to teams 1, 2 and 3 in the polls and convincingly beats 11,12 and 13 and beats 6 unranked teams to go 9-3.
Hypothetical team B plays get slaughtered by to #11 and barely beats 12 and 13 and wins 9 other unranked teams. To go 11-1.
How should these teams be ranked relative to each other?
October 3rd, 2021 at 5:36 PM ^
I’m guessing Wisky loses one more game (Iowa) and then wins out. Doesn’t mean they’re a great team, or top 20 by any means, but they’re not as bad as their record would indicate, imo
October 3rd, 2021 at 1:52 PM ^
Did we just drop? Weren’t we like 6th last week?
Damn that TD with 30 seconds to go. Kenpom time always hurts us.
October 3rd, 2021 at 1:59 PM ^
We were 6th 2 weeks ago but Rutgers dropped us to 8th.
October 3rd, 2021 at 10:47 PM ^
Also, people often take SP+ changes as what happened last week, but it's constantly re-evaluating past games and dropping out more pre-season expectations. So you could play a good game but if all the teams you previously played looked really bad then you still might drop, or not rise. So SP+ probably thought Michigan played well against what it considers a top 10 team in Wisconsin, but Rutgers got blown out and Washington is dropping more. I don't know about NIU and WMU but things probably evened themselves out. Michigan is also higher than preseason numbers so those numbers dropping out helps Michigan at this point.
October 3rd, 2021 at 2:00 PM ^
That's interesting because I believe that garbage time is filtered out from SP+ calculations.
October 3rd, 2021 at 2:27 PM ^
I'd have to check the exact parameters but SP+ eliminates garbage time stuff, so it might not have made a difference
October 3rd, 2021 at 2:08 PM ^
Was over on Eleven Warriors, they have a thread there talking about "michigan fans arrogant again, not worried about November".
Of all the reactions from Michigan fans in the first five weeks, arrogance I literally have not seen once. I think every take I've seen from a Michigan fan is somewhere in the range of "wow, okay, didn't see this coming, can't believe we have a chance to be 6-0"
This sparty like imaginary persecution complex some of their fans are running is absurd.
October 3rd, 2021 at 2:15 PM ^
You see stuff like that in online communities a lot. Very common in politics. Find a fringe opinion from the opposing side and pass it off as the consensus view. It’s basically a straw man.
October 3rd, 2021 at 4:05 PM ^
Good thing that doesn't happen here. ;-)
October 3rd, 2021 at 2:09 PM ^
You have to wonder why there isn't even more noise about Michigan after they rushed for 100+ yards against a Wisconsin defense that had averaged like 40 yards a game.
October 3rd, 2021 at 2:14 PM ^
2.5 yards per carry is 2.5 yards per carry.
October 3rd, 2021 at 2:29 PM ^
We really need to stop scoring those 1-yd TD runs, it's killing the YPC
October 3rd, 2021 at 2:38 PM ^
They were giving 1.62 per carry thru 4 games it seems
October 3rd, 2021 at 4:01 PM ^
To be fair we seemed to have an unusually large number of short-yardage attempts yesterday.
October 3rd, 2021 at 2:13 PM ^
Jim's new hires have been positive. Teams that are well coached have very good special teams. Defense has improved. We need to improve talent level , especially at DT and CB. Offensively , we need better QB play , Cade is not the answer ,JJ has the natural talent to help us win games vs top teams on our schedule. Our WR's and TE's need to block better too.
October 3rd, 2021 at 2:35 PM ^
Cade showed yesterday that he can stand in there and deliver even when he is about to get hit. Not much has been talked about since the game. He also had a couple of nice rollouts. He needs to improve on mid level throws but he seems to be improved. His WRs had circus catches in the second half. Cade may be the answer for this year. Jury is still out. I would not rule him out yet.
October 3rd, 2021 at 2:42 PM ^
Cade plays hard and does some things well. I'm coming from the perspective of playing at the level we want to see Michigan achieve. Cade's ceiling not as high as JJ's. I want Michigan to be elite. JJ gives us that. Cade does not.
October 3rd, 2021 at 3:35 PM ^
Seems like I recall a situation similar (not exactly the same) in 1998 or 1999 or so between a guy considered an all world 5 star talent and a guy who was good but not anywhere near the athletic talent ability of the 5 star guy. Hmmm….anyone else recall those guys??
I note the 5 star guy is getting more snaps sooner as each game comes along. I think JH has been taught by the QB injuries of 2016, 2017, 2018, & 2019 that you need two guys ready to go. There is more than athletic talent to being a QB, like having ZERO turnovers in 5 games. I’m sure we will continue to see more of McCarthy in each game. Rest assured the coaching staff that sees McCarthy each day in practice will continue to play him appropriately as he demonstrates knowledge of our playbook, the ability to read defenses, and the ability to NOT TURN THE BALL OVER.
I sure wish we’d had a guy like McNamara in 2017 instead of O’Korn….
October 3rd, 2021 at 3:55 PM ^
If you are comparing Cade's ability to either Brady or Henson I really have nothing to say to you. Do people realize how far our talent level has fallen at certain positions from 1999 to 2021. I don't like to call people ignorant so I won't. But please look and see what has been going on with the Michigan program. Watch some old games and watch recent games. There is a difference.
October 3rd, 2021 at 4:00 PM ^
And you compare Cade to O' Korn. Really, does that make you feel better about where the program is??? I want elite. If I wrong ,ok get me off the blog. But what does everybody want that's on this blog??? 9-3 10-2 8-4 . If I'm wrong ,down vote me off of here.
October 3rd, 2021 at 3:40 PM ^
It's a tough call, because JJ has shown flashes of having that higher ceiling. But Cade is 5-0 and just went into a tough road environment and played very well. You don't sit someone in that situation. I do think JJ should play more than he is, since I am inclined to agree that he very well may have that high, high ceiling.
The other factor is wondering whether or not JJ would be allowed to make reads as the starter, He's the backup now and shows good decision-making on the pull/give, but will that be permitted if he starts?
TL;DR -- Start Cade, play JJ quite a bit. Profit.
October 3rd, 2021 at 6:18 PM ^
I appreciate everything that Cade gives to this program. But I want elite. Cade can't give us elite. JJ has a higher ceiling. I believe anybody that has watched and knows football agrees with that. All I'm saying is let's raise our game to become closer to elite.
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:29 PM ^
People who understand and watch football have witness Cade go undefeated, have zero turnovers, and has taken zero sacks. You do not replace that kind of production with a freshman without seeing more. The coaches are the ones who will know when that is.
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:37 PM ^
Because you know the teams record and some stats about the team.....doesn't mean YOU understand what it takes to become an elite team in college football. QB's like Cade don't get you to elite. QB's like JJ have a much higher probability of doing that.
October 4th, 2021 at 10:30 AM ^
Cade has a high gridiron IQ. He's going to do the right thing. For example, the pass across the middle that was behind the receiver (can't remember who it was) was actually on target. Cade knew where the receiver was supposed to be but the receiver ran the wrong route. There are many more instances of that this season where Cade looks bad for doing the right thing. That's why he's still the starter and will remain the starter through the end of the season.
Guys like that make their teammates better through the discipline of doing the right thing every time.
October 3rd, 2021 at 10:51 PM ^
More natural talent =/= elite now. JJ hasn't been asked to do much. I'd bet all the money I have he wouldn't be playing at an elite level if he were the starter.
October 4th, 2021 at 12:09 PM ^
Remember also that, as the backup, he's not experiencing the full "Harbaugh whispering" either. As the backup pressed into duty last year against Rutgers, Cade was slinging it, too. Now that he's the starter, he's clearly dealing with the weight of "don't make mistakes", and he's doing well with it. There's no reason to think JJ would be treated any differently were he to start. First and foremost, I think the option to make the pull/give decision would be taken away, as I believe it has from Cade.
But yes, I am with you that JJ is a step above in athleticism, both with throwing and running. Once he gains full command of the offense, it's going to be tough to keep him off the field.
October 3rd, 2021 at 5:14 PM ^
Some weird stuff there with Wiscy and Maryland. Seems about right for Michigan at this stage. Beat Nebraska !