Miami and Florida St to the BIG10, and other realignment talk, might not be so wild anymore
This was talked about in a post yesterday as being wild speculation. But oh how 24 hours can change things. An article in the Omaha World-Herald today says Miami/Florida St to the BIG10, and other wild speculations, are likely what is going to happen.
What are the formerly wild speculations that may become reality?
-The BIG10 and SEC work together on TV deals, and NIL parameters
-The BIG10 wants to go National, so adding Florida schools is an almost certainty
-Notre Dame TV deal expires in 2024, they are a valuable chip in the game
-48 schools break away from the NCAA and make their own playoffs
-Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti, because of his TV experience, may have some cards up his sleeve to make it all work TV wise
University of Nebraska President Ted Carter:
“I’m on (several) national boards and I get to sit with a lot of top tier presidents,” Carter said. “And I can just tell you, this is the conversation that is happening now.”
LINK to this article with much more detail, and the reporter say more is coming in his article next week:
So, as it turns out, Greg McElroy was not off base in what he said:
He's also saying there's a huge change coming to the ACC in 2026, "wipe the slate clean":
What could save the ACC and it's huge TV deal:
-Notre Dame joins the ACC
-ESPN renegotiates
LINK: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1659562691566895104.html
We're still livin' in the college football wild west!
While I understand why they want to add the Florida teams, it feels very different than adding PAC-12 teams. PAC-12 teams just feel like a more natural fit.
I agree with this. FSU, Miami (YTM) and Clemson all fit the SEC.
UNC, GT, UVA and Duke along with ND and some of the PAC-12 schools are a better fit with the B1G.
Not saying that’s how it’ll happen but feels like we’re headed to 2 mega conferences with multiple divisions and a built in playoff. Sort of like a CFB version of the NFC/AFC.
You’re not wrong, but what you have to remember at this point is that this is an arms race. This is not about who is the best cultural fit. If it was, FSU and Miami wouldn’t be a part of this discussion. Pitt, GT, UVA and UNC would. But they don’t bring enough eyeballs to the table.
The SEC just added Texas and Oklahoma. If the Big Ten thinks strictly in terms of what’s the best cultural fit, they’re going to get left in the dust as the SEC wins 18 of the next 19 titles.
This is about survival. What brands can we accumulate that ensure survival and relevance. FSU helps keep the balances in scale.
Arm$ race
I agree with everything you said but I don't think the B1G cares about national titles. Sure they're nice, but even without any (2 since 2000 is it?), they have the most valuable TV deal.
Relevance for sure is vital, but not measured by titles. Measured by 👀👀👀
They don't care? WOW
Eh. To hell with Notre Dame. They can join a depleted ACC or the SEC.
I agree, it feels natural to add the PAC 12. That's because I'm old.
But I am liking the prospect of a bigger recruiting foot print in Florida, adding teams that carry their own weight, and the B1G claiming coast to coast.
As much as I like Washington and Oregon as additions, I remember some big time games with FSU & Miami.
There was a game in 1988 with Miami that would sure be nice to forget. Let #1 Miami score 17 in the 4th quarter to win by 1.
That came on the heels of a 2 pt loss at #9 Notre Dame to open the season. Tough way to start the season.
But, beating Ohio State and then USC in the Rose Bowl made it end well!
Coast to coast east and west AND north and south.
Having teams from the states of the old Confederacy in our conference would feel off, for sure.
I can come around with FSU but I hate Miami. If we do this, add FSU, UVA, UNC, Stanford, Notre Dame, and Oregon and call it a day.
Thank god we went ahead and added Rutgers, Maryland and Nebraska when we did. It would have been a shame to wait and then have the choice of literally every top tier program in the country
I mean, half the B1G seems to play in Florida in December every year already, might as well make it official.
Not to mention all the snowbirds that go south in winter from the Midwest. Florida schools far better to add than Washington and Oregon.
An article in the Omaha World-Herald today says Miami/Florida St to the BIG10, and other wild speculations, are likely what is going to happen.
That's not what the article says.
Yes, it's still just talk between talking heads from what I see. Guess it's May and we need clicks to make the metrics this month.
You're right. It doesn't specifically say Miami and Florida St. But it does say ACC schools from Florida in plural, "schools":
"Certain ACC schools — specifically the state of Florida — would bring huge value to the Big Ten TV kitty."
The article does specifically mention Miami:
"How about Nebraska vs Miami, Fla., as a Big Ten conference game?"
The only other ACC school in Florida is Florida St. So I assumed he is talking about Miami and Florida St. when he says Florida schools.
It's not clear to me that "certain ACC schools" means both of the Florida schools, or only the Florida schools.
All we can clearly say is that this guy thinks more than one ACC school is worth it, and the state of Florida is big for TV.
He thinks the BIG10 and SEC are heading to 24 teams each. So probably more than just the 2 Florida schools. There's 14 teams in the BIG10 now. USC and UCLA makes it 16 soon. Miami and Florida St would make 18. Washington and Oregon would make 20. So who would those last 4 be?
What I've read is that all parties involved are just waiting for something to happen to finally set everything in motion. Like has been said already, there's people that don't want the blood of the Pac12 on their hands. So no one wants to be first to make the dominoes start to fall, and make the realignments start--or should I say end?
I guess one of the 4 left for the BIG10 is going to be Notre Dame. So that leaves 3. I think Clemson is headed to the SEC, I think. South Carolina and West Virginia probably fit better in the SEC. But who knows. The guy in the article says over the next year there's going to be big news stories about it all. So that's not to long of a wait to know.
Miami is a good school. Top 50. Go look at the progress FSU has made in the past decade, it is now ranked higher for undergrad than Penn State
So, it might be Washington, Oregon, FSU, and Miami to make it 20. If the B1G and SEC move to 24 teams each, who are the other 4 teams the B1G adds? Notre Dame, Staford, UNC, and one other?
Do the remnants of the Pac 12 and ACC join with the Big 12 for the 3rd and last conference after the B1G and SEC?
Duke and UNC feel like a package deal
When $$$ are involved, everybody is on their own. When you get one, you don't need the other to get a foothold in the Carolina TV market.
I actually wouldn't mind Duke with UNC. Neither are all that great for football, but Duke is definitely a national brand for basketball and has a great academic reputation.
Btw, I hate Duke for what it's worth.
this is one tired-assed schtick.
College football is ruined with super conferences.
Regular season games become more & more meaningless.
Some teams will "luck out" by not playing all the competition in the Big Ten.
For example, it's not "fair" to be a crowned league champion in that a UCLA could be Big Ten champion while not playing possibly both osu and Michigan in a same season.
Going forward, many playoff teams will have at least one loss.
You'll have more opportunities for a team that beat a team during the regular season lose in the playoff or league championship game - - what does that prove?
Prime example was last year, if ohio and Michigan met in the CFP championship and Michigan would have lost -- would we have been happy? Would we be chirping "well, we beat you in the shoe" while they proudly strut around in their natty t-shirts and ball caps?
Is that "fair"?
What's the statistical probability teams playing each other twice in one season won't "split" the series?
Go Blue.
I do miss the old set up--Texas in the SWC with A&M, Nebraska and Oklahoma in the Big 8. I didn't realize how good we had it in terms of the balance of competition. USC and UCLA in the Big Ten will always feel wrong. Penn State in the Big Ten still works for me though. To this New Yorker they always felt like a Big Ten program rather than an eastern program.
Super Conferences of 24 could lead in my opinion to the B1G vs SEC with each conference having 4 divisions as the first round of division winners vs each other, then those winners vs each other, then winner of that game for B1G vs the Winner of the SEC division champion tournament. It would be far better than the new 12 team playoff that doesn't require teams to win their way in.
If you want to make it bigger, you can also have the remnants of the Pac12, Big 12, and ACC form a super conference and then have the final 4 teams be the winner of the B1G, SEC, and Remnants conference with one at large.
The schedule could be 7 division opponents and 1 opponent from each of the other divisions based on previous year standings, with 2 out of conference games.
To Hell With Notre Dame
My first football game experience as a student in the Big House was when Miami came to town. We were crushing them and then in late 3rd quarter the fans began the nah nah nah goodbye chant, only to see Miami come back and beat us. What a game that was, and was cool to see the big hurricane flag waving in the stands, despite us losing.
'88. Gave up 17 points in the 4th (and I believe on-side kick recovery) to lose 31-30 to #1 Miami.
That would be a heck of game for a first game!
i was there. most of the miami fans left. to hell with cleveland gary.
Fever Dreams of Gold
Old Traditions don’t Pay Bills
Fans will Go Elsewhere
So the actual game happening here is that the top end ACC schools want to leave for the SEC, but that's not currently going anywhere because they're both ESPN conferences. There's no sane reason for ESPN to allow schools they're currently getting the TV rights for a cheap amount of money to leave and go to a league where they will have to pay far more for the same inventory......UNLESS..... those schools convince ESPN that if they don't make this happen they'll go to the Big 10/Fox.
So this is really FSU/Miami/Clemson/UNC/NC State/UVA/Va Tech trying to sell ESPN that it's worth it for them to pay more for that inventory to keep Fox from getting it. I don't think any of them actually want to join the Big 10, except maybe UVA or UNC, and those are debatable. They do want ESPN to think they'd do it though.
to hell with notre dame. leave them dangling.
most people don't like this and if I had a magic button I'd go back to some preferred time in my life where sports seemed ideal too, but... it will be fun to have more interesting teams in the mix.
Regular season being diluted by teams losing 1-2 games and making the playoff is a silly argument when currently we're looking forward to a season where we may have 2 competitive games out of 12. And that's not unique, it happens to ohio st, bama, Georgia, etc all the time in this era of CFB. It's diluted now.
I don't know how many Conference games USC and UCLA will be required to play. But it looks like there will be lots of long distance traveling for them to play that Conference schedule.
La to Seattle is a 2:45 flight while LA to Miami is 5:10. Sure it's longer, but once you figure in travel time to/from the airport, boarding/deplaning... how much of a difference does another 2.5 hours in the air really matter?
The LA teams already travel to UW, WSU, UO, OSU, Utah and CU. All of which are 2+ hour flights. Those 2+ hour flights become 4 to 5 hour flights. Seems like the time zone change might be more troublesome. Will the LA teams play November games in the Midwest at noon or will they be 330 kicks ending in the cold at 7?
Personally, I prefer adding ND and Stanford, but these two Florida teams brings the big Florida TV market.
In long term, I can see both revenue sports break away and has their own super league outside NCAA.
If it’s all about the money, and it always is, they would be smart to do that. Why would the heavy lifters like UM and OSU want to share revenue with teams like Northwestern & MSU? I would say probably a 32 team super league could charge what they want. Some of you definitely won’t like that at first, because, you know, change. And an extra $10 per month to watch on TV. But you would watch, and you would see better football.
Florida State, Miami (1st)
Notre Dame, Stanford (2nd)
Done???
Oregon, Washington (3rd)
and/or
North Carolina, Georgia Tech
Done
Teams Notre Dame has played the most:
1) Navy
2) USC *
3) Purdue *
4) Michigan State *
5) Pittsburgh
6) Army
7) Northwestern *
8) Michigan *
9) Georgia Tech *
10) Stanford *
Every summer I really looked forward to playing ND in September. As much as you hate ND, going to their campus for a game was a great experience. Everyone was friendly and told you to enjoy your day. I would like to see them back on the schedule as a conference opponent.
I don't understand the "to hell with Notre Dame" commentary beyond it being a slogan for the rivalry. Notre Dame makes VASTLY more sense geographically, culturally, and academically than FSU or Miami. Tbh I don't really want the conference to expand again, and I still don't like Maryland and Rutgers as they don't seem like geographical or cultural fits. But if we absolutely HAVE to add someone, a football school from Indiana beats the hell out of anything in Florida.
ND is that girl you had a crush on in high school through college. You flirted with her. Asked her out. But she always turned you down, even though everyone around knew what a perfect couple you'd be. By your late 20's, you moved on, even if she were to come around and show interest in you, by that point you realized she was only coming back to you because she was desperate and lonely, and you realized you were doing more than fine without her. ND might be a good fit still, but they had their chance(s) and passed them up. I guess this is kind of being petty, but yes, it is to punish them.
There is nothing in any of these articles that provides any evidence that the Big Ten is going to try to add FSU and Miami. The Nebraska president focused mainly on expansion with PAC schools and playing in California.
As is always the case with national media talking heads, there wasn’t any mention of the Big Ten’s longstanding focus on adding only AAU schools, which would keep FSU and Miami out, but would keep most of the PAC in contention.
Is it possible the BIG presidents could decide to toss the insistence on AAU membership to allow FSU or Miami to join with the sole goal of maximizing revenue? Yes, but that would be a significant sea change in conference priorities, and to paraphrase Carl Sagan, claims of significant change require significant evidence. I’ll believe it when I see it. I think further BIG expansion is much more likely to involve current PAC schools than Florida or other ACC schools.
As I’ve said before, FSU will be an AAU school sooner rather than later since UF already is. It’s just how things work in this state between these two. FSU is playing catch-up on that front pretty much solely because of the origin story of the school and political history of the early twentieth century. The fact that they are on their way speaks volumes about what they are doing right in Tallahassee.
Uh, I think Ron DeSantis is the evidence that they are not doing things right in Tallahassee.
I understand that FSU is making the effort, but what’s “sooner?” Six months? Two years? Three? Five?
And there’s another aspect to this question wrt to FSU: I’m very skeptical that the politicians who control state government in Florida (who have already asserted unusual amounts of authority over colleges and universities in Florida) are going to allow the university situated in the state capital to join a conference with an overwhelmingly northern cultural orientation.