Looking at the first season for various elite coaches and what to expect for Jim Harbaugh
1999 Oklahoma Bob Stoops 7-5: Lost to a bunch of mediocre teams and beat a bunch of mediocre teams. They absolutely destroyed # 13 Texas A&M who turned out to be pretty overrated. Losses included Texas, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, and Colorado who were all pretty meh. Destroyed Oklahoma Stateand then lost a close one to Ole Miss in the Cotton Bowl.
2000 Louisiana State Nick Saban 8-4: Had a dramatic turnaround from Gerry Dianrdo's 3-8 season the year prior. Beat 8-4 Tennessee, 8-4 Mississippi State, and 9-3 Georgia Tech. This was a huge turnaround as Saban's team held their own after getting pushed around the year prior. Their losses were largely to good teams such as 9-4 auburn and 10-3 Florida. They did lose to UAB early on and 6-6 Arkansas.
2001 Ohio State Jim Tressel 7-5: Had an up and down year without many big wins except for Michigan guh. Beat who he was supposed to beat and lost to who he was supposed to lose to outside of bad losses to Penn State and Wisconsin but one of those was in Happy Valley. The team got better as the year went on as they lost by 3 to # 14 South Carolina in the Outback Bowl.
2001: USC Pete Carroll 6-6: Had a rough year with a lot of losses to good teams. Lost to # 7 Oregon, # 11 Washington, and # 12 Kansas State, and a 5-6 Notre Dame team. Did beat # 20 UCLA 27-0 on their own field so there's that.
2005 Florida Urban Meyer 9-3: Beat who they were supposed to beat and lost to who they were supposed to lose to. Beat # 23 Florida state, # 4 Georgia, and # 25 Iowa with losses to a 11-2 LSU team, and 10-2 Alabama team. They already started to win some games they weren't supposed to.
2007 Alabama Nick saban 7-6: They beat a 8-5 Arkansas team, crushed a 10-4 Tennessee team, lost to # 3 LSU, # 25 Auburn, and an 11-2 Georgia team. They did have a bad loss to Louisiana Monroe to end the season.
From these coaches, I think we can expect a 8-4/9-3 year for Harbaugh since the big ten isn't very difficult and we have most of our big games at home. We'll lose some games but win a big one like MSU or Ohio. Most of these guys ended up beating a rival in their first year who was usually pretty good.The biggest improvement to these teams occured in the 2nd year as they usually went from being mediocre to really good/elite. 3 of the forementioned won national championships in their 2nd year with the rest winning one in their 3rd and 4th years. Recruiting is another big thing to maintain consistency as basically all of these guys had a top 5 class when they got there.
I didn't think it correlated well because Urban Meyer wasn't resurrecting a program. Tressel wasn't fired because he didn't win enough.
But 6-7 is still a win better than M was last year, they had more players drafted than M likely will, and they were playing under a coach that looked at a QB competition of Joe Bauserman, Kenny Guiton and Braxton Miller and chose Bauserman.
2012 recruiting class was #7 nationally according to Rivals. 2013 was #5. 2014 (an extremely small class) was #31 but top 10 in terms of average star ranking.
2008 for OSU was #4, 2009 was #3, 2010 was #25. This was slightly better but it's been well documented that attrition was unusually low under Hoke.
Honestly, what are the odds that all of those players were that massively overrated not only by the recruiting services but also by the coaches at other schools (like Alabama, Florida and OSU for example) who also recruited many of the players who made up those classes?
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
Meyer had eighteen returning starters, more than half were seniors. The depth chart currently shows six senior returning starters for Harbaugh.
Sagarin had them at the 60th toughest schedule in FBS that year, playing NTM, UCF, Cal and UAB in non-conference play. Their ranked opponents were #20 MSU, #21 Nebraska and #20 Michigan. Things might play out that way for M this year, but I sincerely doubt it.
the Sandusky situation. and he plucked a kid away from MSU (Pittman?) who btw. washed out anyway.
EDIT: double post
Of course they weren't overrated, they joined a crappy program. The program wont change overnight.
OSU's players entered an elite program that had won 6 big ten championships and played in 7 BCS games over the previous 8 seasons. Coaching was better, standard of play was set higher across every position, competition was more intense, and players saw first-hand how to win tough games in tough environments. These are dimensions of a winning culture established over many, many years, and are what allowed the players to be so successful in Meyer's first year.
The situations couldn't be more different.
But I also don't think the current situation is as bad as a Gerry DiNardo crater, for example.
Why do you consistently make intellectually dishonest arguments? Yes, OSU went 6-7 in the interim year with Luke Fickell. They also had an absolutely stacked roster with a 5-star QB and were coming off several years of dominating the conference. Meyer's situation is nothing like what the above coaches faced, which is why the OP didn't include him.
"Intellectually dishonest"? That's ironic coming from you.
I guess Hoke hasn't recruited any talent, has he?
Hoke has recruited talent but it's largely on defense. His coaching is piss poor on offense. Most of the reason Ohio went 6-7 is because they were missing like 4 of their best players for most of the season and Fickell is a terrible head coach. Their 2011 team would beat our 2014 team by a lot.
Yes, Hoke recruited high-school talent and proceeded to horribly underdevelop that talent for four straight years. To compare that situation to a one-year aberration involving an LB coach as the interim HC is absurd. 6 of OSU's 7 losses that year were by single digits, they beat two top-20 teams, and had major injury problems. There was a lot of talent on that 2012 team ready to go as soon as Meyer walked through the door.
We definitely have some talent on this team, but I don't see guys like Braxton Miller, Carlos Hyde, Jonathan Hankins, Jack Mewhort, or Andrew Norwell here yet. I hope I'm wrong, butI think 8-4 is a very reasonable expectation for this year.
And you don't think there's any possibility that the problem didn't have something to do motivation, scheme/gameplanning (slamming runningbacks into stacked fronts, etc), 1990's football mentality rather than fundamental skill development? Things that can be corrected in one offseason much like Urban did? The one thing I will give you is there is (apparently) no Braxton Miller on this team, but that doesn't mean the defense isn't seemingly in a better position than OSU's was or the offensive line isn't more stacked, etc.
I think gameplanning, scheme, and mentality had a lot to do with our issues, but I also saw major problems with the individual play: tons of missed assignments, bad blocking technique, RBs missing holes left and right, receivers running poor routes, and worst of all, QBs looking completely and totally lost in all aspects of the game. Harbaugh will be able to fix some of these things right away, but not all. My point was simply that Urban Meyer walked into a much, much better situation than Harbaugh.
April 19th, 2015 at 10:57 PM ^
You also have to factor in a lot OSU's team was suspended the first three games, Pryor never played that year and their top receiver missed half the season. I'm ok with 9-3 but expecting 10-2, 11-1.... I think i said the same thing last season.
They were bad one year because Fickle was Fickle and they lost TP without a competent backup. Our situations are night and day....give it a rest. Lucky to be 8-4 next year.
If Nick Saban, Mark Dantonio, Urban Meyer etc. were all hard after our recruits then they must be good. It's what happened after they got there that sets it apart. If Harbaugh gives them the correct coaching like then you could see massive improvement. Zook recruited well and Urban developed them. Shula recruited well and Saban developed them etc.
April 20th, 2015 at 10:15 AM ^
I hope you're right but a lot of these kids on their 3rd coach already....no matter how talented, that will cauce problems. Defense should be pretty good but who the hell knows with the O having gone through 3 changes in 4 years and we haven't developed a QB since Henne.
My expectation is for 8-4 .... and I really hope I'm wrong.
there's a difference between a single 6-7 season after a decade of excellence vs a 5-7 season after... whatever this has been
a single down year doesn't impact your recruiting, player development, team morale, expectations, etc etc in the same way that sustained mediocrity does
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
Ohio State's record was 6-7 the year before he got there.Come on man, you know that's not an apples to apples comparison.
April 19th, 2015 at 10:19 PM ^
April 20th, 2015 at 12:23 AM ^
From a personnel standpoint, Harbaugh isn't "resurrecting a program," either. There is a great player base at Michigan that had the misfortune of playing there when the coaching staff was reduced to sock puppets by their then-athletic director.
9-3 would be a reasonable record, but I think they can surprise a lot of teams. I think they are going to win ten.
is going to have a fair degree of latitude. If he goes 8-4 there will be very few complaints. As far as I'm concerned, he's rebuilding with an eye on the next century of Michigan football.
April 19th, 2015 at 10:26 PM ^
April 20th, 2015 at 12:30 AM ^
Exactly. There are fans that need to realize that this supposed talent was rated highly during high school, and has nothing to do with where they are now. Our highly-rated "talent" has spent their time at UM languishing while lower-rated players at places like MSU, Minnesota and Utah have leapfrogged them. They are behind, and those recruiting rankings should be thrown out the window.
Having a great coach doesn't mean that our 4-star players will all of a sudden be better than other schools' 3-star players just because. Players at MSU as an example, regardless of where they ranked out of high school are being coached into 10-11 win talent. Ours are 6-8 win talent right now, and Harbaugh's job is to coach any player that walks in Schembechler Hall into elite talent, just like Dantonio and Meyer are doing.
April 20th, 2015 at 10:45 PM ^
"Having a great coach doesn't mean that our 4-star players will all of a sudden be better than other schools' 3-star players just because."
That is definitely true; however a randomly chosen player who was a 4star recruit is quite likely to have a higher physical ceiling than a randomly chosen player who was a 3star recruit. Recruiting rankings are not all-important, but they aren't insignificant either. We shouldn't expect guys to reach their ceilings overnight, but we should expect elite coaching to speed that process significantly.
Another thing that's important to remember is that it makes a difference as a freshman practicing with upperclassman who have never had a great season vs. practicing with upperclassmen who know what it feels like and what it takes to win games.
I agree with most of your post FWIW, just wanted to get specific on something that isn't strictly either/or.
I totally agree with your penultimate paragraph. That is so important and often overlooked. It's why programs like UM's before 2008 are able to sustain itself - the standard of play was extraordinarily high (and built over 40 years) and the backups / freshman practiced to compete with that standard. They also absorb the confidence and know-how of winning because they see it first hand. The same exact players that enter winning programs vs. struggling programs are going to be much more successful because of the culture and environment around them.
Our program doesn't have a single player who has experienced winning on the college level. Harbaugh's biggest challenge will be helping one of his first few teams get over the hump without the benefit of seeing it before. Then the following classes will know what it takes and will work to live up to that standard.
Was that the year that they carried their recently fired coach off the field after he torched the NCAA rule book and lied about it? Or was that a year later?
It was probably the same year the 30 for 30 on the Fab Five came out, and everyone on this blog (rightfully) waxed nostalgic about how awesome they were.
April 20th, 2015 at 12:36 AM ^
Oh my god. Come on. This is so funny to me. Tress was a mentor to thousands of kids. Not a single damn player from his past talks bad about him. Not one!
If I wanted to play the super duper homer card, I'd say Tress lying to the NCAA was the ultimate "protect your kids" move. He tried to cover up the errors of 18 year olds to protect them from an archaic NCAA rulebook, and the potential ruination of their careers/lives over something as stupid as selling their own stuff.
Look, celebrate the Fab Five, who cares. Greatest team that never won anything. Net positive image for Michigan, probably. But for you to act like what they did was ok, and what Tress did was not, is hilarious. They both are celebrated pillars of our respective schools, that also completely cheated and dragged down the collective reputations of the Universities as a whole. Stop acting like you're better here. You're not. Welcome to the club.
I get you hate Ohio State, but come on. Hilarious.
April 20th, 2015 at 12:20 PM ^
I'm happy to acknowledge an unreasonable holier-than-thou attitude among a certain section of the M fan base, but there are some stark differences here. Assuming we're all ready to give kids the benefit of the doubt and focus on responsible adults...
A) M fans hold the mistakes against Fisher in spite of his success; Tress is near universally glorified as a martyr
B) if enjoying 30 for 30 is your measure, M fans waited 20 years to celebrate the successes experienced under Fisher; Tress was carried off on the shoulders of fans within a calendar year
C) M paid dearly for its crimes; OSU was similarly guilty and suffered very little (regardless of the fairness of punishment in either case, it explains why some get pretty indignant on this topic)
In what world is stripping a Sugar Bowl title, suspending your three best offensive players for half a season, kicking the very best offensive player off the team, firing the second best coach in program history, losing several scholarships, and banning a 12-0 team from playing for a national title "suffering very little"?
Like I said, the relative reasonableness of an adult is all relative. If a dad finds weed in his kid's room, should he call the police? Or no? I can make very logical arguments that Tress was protecting his (very irresponsible) kids from severe punishment. I can also make very logical arguments that he was a cheater.
I don't think the time matters. It's not like OSU brought Tress out as an FU to the NCAA, they brought Tress out because coincidental circumstance was celebrating a 10 year anniversary of a national championship, and his former players being honored all wanted him there. Sure it was in bad taste. I don't care. The dude was the biggest part of that team. He paid for his sins with his career. I'm not going to ban him from coming over like a petty child.
in the same world where in spite of those penalties OSU gets one of the best coaches on the market immediately and wins another championship within a few years? i'll grant that may be a factor of OSU weathering the storm much better, but historically speaking there wasn't much "suffering" when you look at what followed compared to the fallout at M in the wake of fab 5.
my point is you can't ignore the time frame between the improper actions and the honoring of the guilty party. that's actually the crux of my argument against your claim that 30 for 30 is somehow equivalent. and that's the only part of your comment i took issue with in the first place. there's no comparison between parading Tressel around (which you admit was in bad taste) and enjoying a documentary two decades later.
as an institution, M disassociated from the fab 5 and even now some fans would rather not have them (or a pair of final 4 banners) around Crisler. compare that to how OSU (both institutionally and from fan perspective) handled Tressel. doesn't mean OSU is any dirtier, but it's a starkly different response.
April 20th, 2015 at 12:19 PM ^
I expect excellence. No more, no less.
let's hijack this thread and talk about why you are so up in arms about making Michigan's game day locker room look like a spaceship when it's fine the way it is right now.
DISCUSS
/Goes back to eating his Dominos and being Dave Brandon.