Let’s Talk About Ohio State: Game 1
This game happened and people seem confused. I’m a bit confused and it seems like we don’t have many answers on OSU based on week 1. I’d say stock up vs. my expectation, but only mildly. Cincinnati will obviously tell us more.
Highlights
- I don’t think FAU “came to play” in this game. I’m vulnerable to bias, but it seems like both teams played this like a scrimmage. FAU stayed in basic coverages, rarely blitzed, and seemed totally confused by seemingly obvious play calls by OSU. They perked up late when they had some success, but Kiffin didn’t try to win this game.
- Lots of zone read hand off when the QB cannot (and did not once) run
- When it wasn’t zone read, it was simple pass plays from that formation – double slants, go routes
- Kiffin called a pop pass, which was flagged for illegal formation. He ran the exact same play on the very next down. He just wanted his team to practice
- Fields did well with what he was given. What he was given, especially early:
- Insanely good field position, which takes pressure off any QB, but especially a new QB
- An untouched TD run
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https://youtu.be/LXmySwb5080?t=2
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- Two long TD passes on which the WR was not remotely covered
https://youtu.be/LXmySwb5080?t=15
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- Another TD pass on which the receiver was somewhat remotely covered
https://youtu.be/LXmySwb5080?t=40 - Simple reads on which his first option was almost always open. He struggled at times when they were not
- He made some nice plays, but the pressure was off from the jump
- He did have a turnover in the sense that he threw a ball behind an OSU WR on a bubble screen, a lateral, which FAU recovered
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https://youtu.be/LXmySwb5080?t=82
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- Another TD pass on which the receiver was somewhat remotely covered
- Their OL looked fine. I’d say similar to last year. That means decent pass pro and poor run blocking
- WRs looked good, but they were wide open early
- Dobbins looks the same as last year. That means a + B1G running back but nowhere near the player he looked like in his freshman year. 12 carries for 91 yards, 4.3 per. And a fumble.
https://youtu.be/LXmySwb5080?t=97 - RB’s behind Dobbins are just guys
- Defense looked fine. Remember last year’s OSU defense also murdered terrible teams at home early in the season (Rutgers scored 3 points, Tulane scored 6)
- They were in a 4-3 most of the time, with Werner, Malik Harrison, and Borland at LB, just like last year. Brendan White, the supposed new Viper, was at the 2nd safety. Arnette at CB opposite Okudah
- Werner missed a tackle at the LOS when totally unblocked (don’t have video, fuck a company called Veritone for a copyright claim), and his flailing around almost took out his teammates' knees on two separate occasions
- Barron Browning came in for the second half and immediately gave up a 3rd and 10 conversion on a simple screen pass by taking a terrible angle, then another TE first down completion where he was lost in space. Borland and Werner aren’t getting replaced (again, fuck Veritone for lack of video)
- Arnette had an obvious pass interference that wasn't called by the refs (continuously fuck Veritone). This was a problem for him all last year and will continue
- Brendan White ate an obvious crack block on the TD, which seems egregious at this point in the spread era when you're lined up in that kitty corner to the TE position
I still think this is a 9-3 team. But I'm just a guy on the internet what the hell do I know.
September 6th, 2019 at 3:02 PM ^
Be right, Bodog, be right
September 6th, 2019 at 3:03 PM ^
Yes, but you're a guy on the internet saying what we want to hear!
September 6th, 2019 at 3:25 PM ^
Right now I am, but hopefully I'm being as unbiased as possible.
There are aspects to Fields' game that are really nice, even in a contest like this. He stays calm in the face of a blitz he knows his RB will pick up, and takes a quick step back on the other pressure before completing a TD pass to the (admittedly wide open) TE.
But should he be that calm? If that's a Michigan/PSU/MSU defense and that sequence happens, he's probably dead. Fields in this game is probably under the ideal circumstances that colored much of his recruiting profile: it was like a 7-on-7 or playing against competition he's physically much better than.
No one knows what will happen when the first read is confused and his OL are getting beat and he has real speed chasing him down. He could be great, could be not.
The 9-3 expectation is built not only on this mystery, but the 4 new OL, the defensive mystery with a new DC, and the head coach. Everyone looks grand in a scrimmage. Hopefully Cincinnati puts in enough of a fight to get some answers, and I think they will
September 7th, 2019 at 1:05 AM ^
Kwity Paye is going to eat that mutherfucker up come Thanksgiving weekend!
September 6th, 2019 at 4:07 PM ^
Isn't that how the interwebs echo chamber always works?
September 6th, 2019 at 3:11 PM ^
My only real take from this game was that FAU looked a mess! Like a “I should actively forget what I have seen because this opponent is so disorganized that nothing is indicative” mess.
I will pay more attention to their game this weekend. Cinci is well coached by future MSU head man Luke Fickell and I think can hang for 2 or 3 quarters. If they throttle Cincinnati, then I’ll be worried. If it’s a pull away late performance, they’re mortal.
September 6th, 2019 at 3:19 PM ^
Dude, where are you getting that Fickell wants MSU?!?!?
He has nowhere expressed an interest in MSU, and I’ve yet to hear any Spartan express an interest in him.
Fickell wants C-bus, period. Sparty wants Narduzzi back. Unless there is a complete flip in the EL fanbase and in Fickell’s goals you won’t see him in EL.
September 6th, 2019 at 3:23 PM ^
Nope. Fickell will be in EL by 2021. Bet. Same path as Daytona.
September 6th, 2019 at 3:59 PM ^
Pretty bold... But I totally see the logic.
September 6th, 2019 at 10:55 PM ^
I think there's too much that could change to make that prediction. Saturday could go a long way in determining that. If he keeps that game very competitive and Ryan Day has a 9-3 season and loses to Michigan, Penn State and another team, while Cincy has a very good season, things could get a little awkward. Because with his ties to the area, he'll know if he can get that job within the next 3-4 years. If he can get that job from Cincy, he aint leaving. Because from what I've heard, Ryan Day is in about as bad of a situation as you can get in the context of taking over a conference title winner in terms of stability.
He's expected to win big immediately, and if he does, he did it with Urban's guys. If he loses a couple games, it's going to get crazy. There's not a single quarterback Ohio State recruited during Urban Meyer's tenure on the roster. It's Justin Fields, and a couple other transfers. There's a reason they're starting a transfer from Rutgers on the OL. Because there's currently 11 scholarship linemen from the last 4 year recruiting cycle remaining on the roster, and 4 of them are true freshmen. The development and production of the OL has gotten significantly worse each year since Ed Warinner was jettisoned to Minnesota. Their holding penalties, false starts, sacks allowed, and yards per carry have all been trending downward the last couple of years.
They still have an absolute shit ton of talent, but it's concerning to quite a few Ohio State fans that Baron Browning and Teradja Mitchell haven't been able to beat out Werner or Borland. This is the largest number of upperclassmen Ohio State has started in a long time. The development just hadn't been there like it used to. Urban was never great at replacing assistants and it shows. Urban Meyer is nothing if not a highly skilled, incredibly tactical mercenary. He got out of Florida right before shit hit the fan for the next guy to clean up. There's some worry he's doing the same thing here. Ryan Day could absolutely be a fantastic coach, but I have a funny feeling he's not going to get the time to put his own stamp on the program if things go relatively poorly early. Because this job is more desirable than every other job outside of maybe Alabama and Texas.
September 7th, 2019 at 10:22 AM ^
Why anyone would wanna coach there is beyond me. The whole city smells like burnt hair, not to mention the culture of the team. Fickell is a first class douche nozzle but I think if he wins and wins some more than he can do better than that dump.
September 6th, 2019 at 3:26 PM ^
Fickell ain't getting C-bus, ever. And Narduzzi may or may not have been impressive enough at Pitt - or even still coaching there - by the time Dantonio is ready to leave.
September 6th, 2019 at 3:29 PM ^
Right. Duzz has not impressed at Pitt. Fickell will be Michigan State’s target and he will accept if they’re the first serious Power 5 to offer him.
If MSU is 7-5 or worse this year and Cinci wins 10+ games, it wouldn’t surprise me if Mork “retired” this year and MSU moved quickly.
September 6th, 2019 at 4:43 PM ^
I look at it the other way. I think if MSU has a good year this year (9+ wins and a win over Michigan & winning record vs. Harbaugh), Dantonio could see this as a good time to get out as next year could be a rebuilding year for MSU. Dantonio has too much pride to leave after a bad year and would believe he had the ability to turn it around (like most successful coaches).
I don't think MSU would ever force Dantonio out. He is too good a coach, and the MSU job is less attractive now that it is in the same division as Michigan, OSU, and PSU. It would take several years of underachieving especially with all the turnover in their administration (new president and AD).
IMO Fickell would be a big step down for them. Fickell has been able to recruit Ohio and hit the transfer market hard, but I don't think that will transfer over as much to MSU. People have made too much of their success last year while forgetting that Fickell was demoted from DC at OSU and often looked like a guy Urban was pushing to get HC job to get him out of his program. His Cincinnati teams have beaten only one team with a record better than 7-6: 9-4 Ohio.
September 6th, 2019 at 6:05 PM ^
When MSU goes 6-6 this year, Dantonio will be 2-3 against Harbaugh, he will be 26-24 since their incredibly lucky playoff season, he will be set to lose 80% of the only good unit on his roster, and he will be looking at a recruiting operation that has fallen off a cliff. Things aren’t going in the right direction. If they let him hang around until he’s 2-5 against Harbaugh, his legacy will become stained. If they let the good group of five coaches move on, they won’t have a good replacement lined up.
I think the longer MSU/Mork waits here the uglier it will get. They’d best pounce on a top target soon.
As for Fickell, I do think he’s a better version of Mork. He’s a strong defensive mind that will keep that side of the ball strong for them. He can recruit Ohio very well - he’s a major reason MSU’s recruiting has taken a nose dive. The borderline 4 stars in Ohio that had gone to MSU in Mork’s prime are going to Cincinnati and Kentucky now.
Do I think Fickell is the best group of five coach they could target? No I don’t. However, if he wins double digit games in back to back years, he’s going to make a lot of sense. He has virtually the same background as Mork, will bring a recruiting bump, and has demonstrated a willingness to go after Harbaugh/Michigan in the media. Don’t underestimate his dust up with Jim over James Hudson. Fickell isn’t stupid enough to believe he was right - he was posturing.
September 6th, 2019 at 8:05 PM ^
Hmmmmm...
I dislike Coach DiGiorno as much as the next guy but he's earned the ability to drive that program into the ground.
Like Izzo, he's not going anywhere.
September 6th, 2019 at 8:28 PM ^
Idk man. He's on their Mt. Rushmore now, but will MSU let him coach until he's not? How far down will they let him drive things just because he's got a couple conference titles? How long do they want to go before they win another? How many questions will I ask before you answer a single one? Huh?
September 6th, 2019 at 10:23 PM ^
Yeah, but he doesn't give a damn about the whole state of Michigan...oh wait.
September 7th, 2019 at 9:23 AM ^
I can’t stand Mork but to say Fickell is a better coach? C’mon man!!! 6-6 with that defense? The bias around here is strong.
September 6th, 2019 at 6:39 PM ^
I think Dantonio is wrapping up his tenure either way...
with the way he shuffled the deck with his staff instead of bringing in new blood and their lackluster, even by MSU standards, recruiting it sure looks like he's setting the stage for his departure.
September 6th, 2019 at 9:08 PM ^
Get his friends one more year of pay before they all ride out into the sunset.
September 6th, 2019 at 4:18 PM ^
*Fickellini
*Narduzziani
*D'Antorini
September 6th, 2019 at 8:30 PM ^
That Cincy team is a good football team - I think most everyone agrees. We'll be able to tell a lot about OSU with this game.
September 6th, 2019 at 3:12 PM ^
Let's talk about deez nuts
September 6th, 2019 at 3:13 PM ^
Ohio State Friday?
September 6th, 2019 at 4:03 PM ^
Can we also add a fear-o-meter like the 11 Warriors scale?
1 = Not scared, poop cooler at 10% full
5 = Slightly scared, poop cooler at 50% full
10 = Totally don't want to open, poop cooler at 100% full
September 6th, 2019 at 7:20 PM ^
My cooler's about 38% full.
September 6th, 2019 at 3:13 PM ^
This is a good idea. We need to talk about them more frequently so as to not be accused later of lack of focus on our chief rival.
Maybe even get a countdown clock. Those prove resolve even more than actual game planning.
In all seriousness, I just don't think Kiffin is a good coach. Like at all. To think that he was going to talk an overmatched team into getting up for that beatdown? Nah. Osu can beat them playing schoolyard ball alone- no scheme necessary, and I think that's what you saw Saturday.
September 6th, 2019 at 8:37 PM ^
Agree, and some of the Ohio papers kind of alluded to them keeping it vanilla last Saturday. I'm not saying they're worried about Cincy but OSU knows it could have a fight on its hands. Upset anyone ? That's a good Cincy team and Fickell's done a heck of a job since he's been there.
September 6th, 2019 at 3:14 PM ^
The Cincinnati game will tell us a lot more about OSU. I think Cincy will come prepared (coached by Fickell) with an edge (many Ohio players who were passed over by OSU). Should be a good game. The spread is ~16.
September 6th, 2019 at 8:57 PM ^
I have to think Fickell is somewhat irritated for not being even remotely considered when Meyer "retired" especially with the job he's doing in Cincinnati. Agree with you, this game will tell us more about OSU. And, like you said and I agree with, many of their players were given the cold shoulder by OSU. This game could be tighter than most are projecting.
September 6th, 2019 at 3:16 PM ^
Can you post these every week?
It could be like our version of the OZONEs “Michigan Monday.”
I think a lot of people would read it.
September 6th, 2019 at 3:58 PM ^
Seconded. We all know when the game will be but I was totally unprepared for their dominance versus us last year.
I'm a bit nervous their improved run offense will focus on our main weakness, tackle depth.
September 6th, 2019 at 7:21 PM ^
Seconded. And make it a Diary. It wouldn't be a bad idea to adopt a format like MM too. Something like:
- Initial thoughts
- OSU Offense
- OSU Defense
- OSU Special Teams
- Wrap/Preview next week/Something catchy
I'd definitely read it.
September 6th, 2019 at 3:17 PM ^
I appreciate this analysis. Hope you keep doing them throughout the season.
September 6th, 2019 at 3:20 PM ^
True, FAU did not come ready to play. Perhaps nerves playing in that stadium? Against that team? Don't know. But for the first 10 minutes they were the suckiest bunch of sucks that ever did suck.
And then they must have settled down because they sucked much less. Sure, perhaps OSU players (& coaches?) may have lost a bit of their competitive edge after being up 28-0 (scoring in 4 plays, 2 plays, 3 plays, & 4 plays...4 TDs in 13 offensive plays...on the field for between 30-90 seconds per possession before the inevitable TD...and as for the defense: 3&out, 3&out, 3&out, and 3&out = game over with 50 minutes still left on the board...just no injuries, please, please, please, please, please), but I think FAU showed the rest of the way why they'll be among the contenders to win their division.
Cincinnati is gonna come right after Fields to make the kid take a few hits. Shake his psyche (or even ding his body forcing a backup QB to play) and it will give life to a team that has a huge "we wanted to play there but they didn't want us and now we're tired of them getting all the attention" chip on their shoulder, and things will get very interesting.
September 6th, 2019 at 3:28 PM ^
Very good points. I would continue to emphasize that the offense FAU was calling would be killed by almost any B1G team. I mean you can't run zone read with zero respect for a QB run over and over again. The defensive performance was fine. It wasn't anything to indicate the problems on that side of the ball have been solved.
September 6th, 2019 at 3:34 PM ^
That's eyes open there.
I counted at least a 10 top 1000 recruits at Cinci that wanted a OSU offer and didn't even get one. Also a handful of top 500 recruits with the OSU offer but didn't make it in the class. Plus this being a late addition game against the coach who fluffed Urban for a year, something tells me this is gonna be a dog fight ...with Bear? ....cats?
September 6th, 2019 at 3:41 PM ^
"we wanted to play there but they didn't want us and now we're tired of them getting all the attention" chip on their shoulder, and things will get very interesting.
So exactly how MSU plays us. Makes sense.
September 6th, 2019 at 4:02 PM ^
Him and DTR are very similar, but chip kelly has become a wannabe genius and he doesn’t have near the talent OSU does. OSU will win, but it benefits cincy that they played such a similar qb last week
September 6th, 2019 at 4:21 PM ^
Nothing good happens once you're up four scores. Either you get injured, or you take your foot off the gas, or fans worry you're showing too much of your playbook, or your backups get torched and the game gets closer.
I agree with both you and Bodog, but have a hard time making anything out of the 2nd Quarter onward. It's rare a team keeps its foot on the gas and goes 78-0, but its rare teams play ones as bad as Rutgers 2016. So far OSU is good enough to stun a mediocre team and put them away in the first Q.
September 6th, 2019 at 3:24 PM ^
Ohio state is going to be good, and especially good when they play us.
September 6th, 2019 at 3:26 PM ^
Man, FAU got absolutely no pressure on the QB for those TD passes. I'll be curious to see how Field's arm looks when he has a defender within five yards of him.
September 6th, 2019 at 3:33 PM ^
OSU has a count down clock for Michigan. Fuck this what if take.
September 6th, 2019 at 3:37 PM ^
I agree with and appreciate your overall analysis but tosu has a really nice schedule setup. They are stocked pretty well with talent and I really only see 4 games where it's possible for them to lose and really only 2-3 where it is "for real" possible for them to lose...only 1 of those is on the road.
I think UM has a solid 6 games they have the ability to lose...probably 4 of them for real and 2 on the road.
One or two losses make a huge difference and their schedule + talent sets them up to have 9-3 be the gutter end of what they could do with 12-0 seeming quite doable. I see michigans basement as 8-4 and ceiling 10-2
what the hell do I know either lol.
And for the record I'm not knocking their schedule. While I like the entertainment of big games I'd be just fine if they played some MAC team instead of ND or didn't draw two good teams from the west.
September 6th, 2019 at 4:05 PM ^
-1 for "tosu"
You suck for giving them that credit.
September 6th, 2019 at 4:50 PM ^
You could be right, I could be wrong; but I see Nebraska (road), MSU (home), Northwestern (road, but still kind of home), Wisconsin (home), PSU (home), and Michigan (road) as games they can certainly lose.
If:
- the run game isn't great - and 1 game is too small a sample size, but for what it is, it didn't look great,
- Fields isn't quite good (meaning top 4 in B1G)
- their defense still has holes
they can lose to any team with a good defense (even with a bad offense) or can put up a lot of points. NW, PSU, MSU have good defenses, Nebraska can score, and Wiscy may be able to do both, Michigan can do both.
September 6th, 2019 at 7:29 PM ^
OSU has a 4-game stretch in the middle of the season that will define who they are (10-0?, 8-2?) as they enter the PSU & Michigan finale to the season.
September 6th, 2019 at 3:45 PM ^
I thought the line blocked better than Dobbins ran. And either Fields missed a ton of QB run reads, or was told by the coaches "don't keep." He had 12 carries, but more than half were bailout scrambles and not designed runs/keeps. I thought Dobbins was a disappointment.
With respect to Fields, that was about as good of a debut as you could ask for. There were no Freshman Making His First Ever Start Panic Throws. The one knock on Fields was his inability to make anything happen when the first read was not immediately available. Like I said above, he had at least 6 or 7 scrambles when he couldn't find anyone open after 4+ seconds, and just took off for a few yards. Why did this occur? I imagine it's because he's a young player who has trouble going from read 1 to read 2 in time to find read 2 open. Once Fields gets to the point where he knows read 1 is going to be covered and to find read 2 pre-snap, he will arrive Haskins-style. Is that coming this year? Idk. I trust Day and Yurich to get him there eventually. If he gets there this year, OSU is going to have a much higher ceiling. Like you said, Cincy's defense should be good enough to take away read 1 a lot more than FAU did. How Fields responds will make the difference in OSU winning by 14 or by 28.
I think you're way off on the defense. OSU threw one pitch all game and FAU had -12 yards at half time. Even Tulane had a 65 yard first half TD drive on OSU's starters last year. Both FAU's TD drives came well into 4th quarter garbage time, and one was against the entire second unit. Brendan White only played 17 snaps. OSU didn't even show the Viper position off. Once again, Cincy should provide a better look at everything, but on paper, it looks like their OL is going to get devoured. If OSU's defense is for real, they should stuff Cincy's offense in a locker all first half. Even if Fields struggles, I can't see Cincinnati's offense scoring enough to make it matter.