Klatt's Preview of the National Championship Game
January 4th, 2024 at 10:06 AM ^
can you share a recap of the keys?
January 4th, 2024 at 10:09 AM ^
Washington's key - more possessions = more opportunities to score
Michigan's key - less possessions increases the impact of each stop or forced FG
Also talks about Jim's partnership with John to get McDonald and then Minter to build the Ravens DEF in order to stop this exact type of offense (OSU passing attack)
January 4th, 2024 at 10:11 AM ^
Imagine going into this game with Don Brown
January 4th, 2024 at 10:14 AM ^
Michigan doesn't even sniff this game with Don Brown. I'm very grateful for what he did during his time here, but his unwillingness to adapt was frustrating (see the '18 and '19 OSU game plans)
January 4th, 2024 at 10:55 AM ^
No definitely not. I just mean facing this type of offense in any game with our corners on islands. I'd be watching with my eyes closed.
January 4th, 2024 at 11:14 AM ^
Not exactly unwillingness. Brown had some zones and he added to them a bit late. The problem was that he was not a zone coach and could not coach the players to run them effectively. You coach the stuff you know; he’s a system guy, and his system was exploitable at the top level. A lot like Chip Kelly and even Richrod; once you know where it’s weak it can be beaten.
Lloyd actually had this issue in special teams in 2003 when they tried to adopt a spread punt but weren’t equipped to make it work.
Harbaugh’s solution to these kinds of weaknesses is to hire people who know how to address them. Result: he’s coaching for a national title.
January 4th, 2024 at 10:17 AM ^
With all due respect, I'd rather not.
The changes to the staff have been nothing short of fantastic. The combination of Mcdonald and Minter on defense have been brilliant.
I'm not counting any chickens. I greatly appreciate everything - everyone associated with the program have done - their effort - determination - commitment - execution - and, culture - define extraordinary.
Go Blue!
January 4th, 2024 at 10:43 AM ^
"The changes to the staff have been nothing short of fantastic. The combination of Mcdonald and Minter on defense have been brilliant."
This.
This is what's completely lost by the OSU/MSU slappy's screaming "cheaterz" after every game. The only staffer they think changed was Stallions and they totally overlook the complete staff overhaul Jim did after the 2020 debacle.
Hopefully they never do.
January 4th, 2024 at 11:20 AM ^
Harbaugh went young and he went Baltimore after 2020, a master stroke of leveraging his unique resources (he has a brother who is a tenured Super Bowl winning coach) to upgrade his own program. It’s an amazing synergy that injects state-of-the-art NFL thinking and personnel into a college program with the resources to apply it to the highest college level.
It is completely legal and ethical; it is also highly unfair, since no other college program can do this, and the fact that the college football world just hand-waves this away and gets distracted with shiny objects instead is great for us.
January 4th, 2024 at 11:29 AM ^
That's actually my biggest concern if Harbaugh goes pro. I think we'll be in good shape for recruiting, development and play calling, but it will be harder to recruit Ravens staff.
January 4th, 2024 at 12:43 PM ^
"gets distracted with shiny objects"
Soooo much of that out there.
January 4th, 2024 at 2:17 PM ^
True, although I don't think Jim's thought process is, "Let me ask my brother who coaches in the NFL and won a Super Bowl."
It's probably more along the lines of "Let me ask my brother who wouldn't have won that f**king Super Bowl if it wasn't for that f**king missed holding MOTHERFUUUUUUUUUU..."
January 4th, 2024 at 10:31 AM ^
Agree with the comment below - we would never be in this game with him calling the defense. I appreciated what he did here, but I'm not sure that we win ANY of the 3 OSU games the last three years with a Don Brown defense. He was great at building a bully defense that could overpower less talented teams...but like many bullies, when he got popped in the mouth he didn't know how to respond.
The greatest move that Jim ever made was going after McDonald/Minter to build an NFL defense to stop OSU.
January 4th, 2024 at 10:41 AM ^
Don Brown was good for his time, and was good for getting after the JT Barrett style OSU team. He couldn't find his pants when he came up against an offense like what OSU trotted out in 2018+ and would not be the guy you want against the kinds of offenses that put up big numbers these days (OSU, USC, Washington, LSU, FSU)
He was the right hire to go after the Urban Meyer OSU until he wasn't.
January 4th, 2024 at 12:40 PM ^
Don Brown was like Ron English. Did some great things when he came in, teams knew how to tackle well for the most part, but didn't know how to adapt to particular offenses and was stubborn.
January 4th, 2024 at 10:22 AM ^
I'll leave special teams out of the discussion, for now.
Washington offense vs Michigan defense is the matchup to watch. It's going to challenge Michigan's secondary - I respect Penix and the Huskies receiving corps - and, the Huskies passing game is very good. Looking forward to Minter reaching a bit further into his bag for creative coverages. The quick three step drops is what I'm sensitive to.
Michigan's offense vs Washington's defense. This seems to be an advantage for Michigan.
As others have noted. Play clean. Protect the ball. Fundamental technique. Just execute the plan.
Go Blue!
January 4th, 2024 at 11:09 AM ^
I'm glad that college ADs and NFL GMs are idiots. Because you're telling me you'd rather hire a retread Manny Diaz than Minter? If you look at what the Ravens and Michigan are both doing this year, you'd be interviewing both those guys.
Seriously, college ADs are very, very dumb. I would be hiring like 5 different guys from Michigan's staff before I would call Manny Diaz.
January 4th, 2024 at 10:25 AM ^
In addition to the points above, He also basically is saying that if you look at it on paper, by the numbers, this is Michigan's game unless (a) Michigan completely fucks up with turnovers and crazy stupid things or (b) Penix goes insane and is just unstoppable.
So if Michigan wants to win, they need to perform they way they should against this mediocre defense, not give the game away, and reduce Penix's chances to go off.
If we want to win, we need to play the exact game we played against OSU in 2021 or 2022.
January 4th, 2024 at 10:14 AM ^
Probably the best preview we’ll get out of the national sports media types prior to the game.
If the Wash RB can’t go or is limited in scope, it truly makes their offense one dimensional and although Penix has proven lethal when given time, I don’t know if he can shoulder the load for 60 minutes. Their is little to no production at RB behind their injured starter fyi.
I don’t think the Wash defense has the bulk or depth to hang with Mich offense deep into the second half. Now is not the time to get conservative but I didn’t see a disciplined front 7 for Wash against UT and that opened up running lanes for most of the game. If Corum or Edwards get to the 2nd level with consistency, it could be a long day.
Lastly, Mich cannot let special teams or turnovers decide this game. Play clean, limit mistakes, and I think we’ll see a desperate Wash team force the ball for much of the 2nd half.
Go blue!
January 4th, 2024 at 10:20 AM ^
The Washington RB has a foot injury. Those don't heal overnight. I don't care what the smokescreen says, he WILL be limited in the game and that's a problem for UW. There are also nine interior defensive linemen that are even bigger problems.
January 4th, 2024 at 10:29 AM ^
Washington was already a limited rush offense. Between our DL and the injury to their RB (plus the fact that Washington's OL calling card is pass pro rather than run-blocking), there's a very solid chance that Michigan can make Washington one-dimensional on offense for this game. Now, Penix and UW's receivers are good enough to still POSSIBLY win even under those circumstances, but I wouldn't call it a very good chance.
January 4th, 2024 at 10:45 AM ^
all of this feels a bit like how we were talking about the TCU game last year.
i know, we're wiser than that now, we just beat the SEC champs, etc. but still, it has a little of that pre-TCU vibe.
January 4th, 2024 at 11:25 AM ^
Thats what makes me nervous. I look at this and think ‘I think we should win’ which makes me nervous we get another yakity sax TCU game where I end up saying after “We should have won’
January 4th, 2024 at 11:47 AM ^
i do think that TCU game was very unique in non-repeatable ways. and by that i mean every mistake we made cost us to the absolute maximum - 2 pick 6's, a blown safety tackle leads to a 70 yd TD, etc.
so with the wisdom of last year and the maturity and experience the team should have from that, we are probably okay. just don't take UW lightly....
January 4th, 2024 at 12:51 PM ^
And we uncharacteristically cost ourselves points by fumbling at the goal line (from a ref overturn of a TD) and also running that weird ass Philly Special.
If we can just be the same Michigan team we've been all year (looking at special teams as well!), we SHOULD win this game.
January 4th, 2024 at 10:35 AM ^
I've been digging around through the Washington box scores, and I've got three main questions/takeaways:
- It's hard to find teams who didn't have good or great success running on Washington. Texas was getting around 7/carry from their main ballcarriers without breaking one for more than 21. USC's backs got more than 13/carry on 13 runs. OSU's main ballcarriers had 5.5/carry on 32 carries.
- Penix is great, but there are games that he just wasn't amazing-- and I don't know why. Against OSU (the team I think would probably be closest to a UM/PSU/OhioSt type defense) Penix was 13/28 162 yds 2TD. Against ASU he was 27/42 275 yds 2 INTs. Against WSU he was 18/33 204 yds 2 TD 1 INT. Maybe just off games like JJ against BGSU, but the difference is that those were all close games for Washington/Penix.
- Washington has the Joe Moore Award winning offense line. They have been phenomenal in pass protection. However, I don't know if they've seen anything like UM's DL. They very well could be legit (they held up against Oregon twice and Texas). However, as we well know, even a Joe Moore line looks different when you run into Georgia (or sadly, TCU) in the CFP. If their OL holds up like they have all year, I don't know if we'll be able to pull away from them. If we get even half as much pressure as we did on Bama, we could blow this thing open, IMO.
January 4th, 2024 at 10:54 AM ^
- Texas was without their star running back Jonathon Brooks - those were the backups putting up that fat ypc.
- Believe he was dinged up part of the year, similar to JJ, so I wouldn't read too much into those performances. The ASU game was embarrassing though. They didn't score an offensive touchdown the whole game and should have lost. ASU had the ball and the lead and an 89 yard pick six gave Washington the lead and they sealed it with a FG. ASU went 3-9 this year.
- Agreed
January 4th, 2024 at 11:06 AM ^
The Oregon State game was played on the road in a steady cold rain in the last OSU home game of the PAC12 era. It was as tough a game environment as you can face. That's a solid road victory under the circumstances.
The ASU game was the week after UW beat Oregon, so there was probably a huge letdown mentally. ASU controlled the ball and had a 15 minute time of possession advantage, and won the turnover battle 4-1. UW had 3 field goals and a pick six, no offensive TDs. It's a wonder UW won that game, but they did.
January 4th, 2024 at 10:20 AM ^
Sounds like a nice thing to hold us over until FFFF
January 4th, 2024 at 10:20 AM ^
I think if we can keep Washington in the 20s, our offense will be able to score enough to win as long as we don't lose the turnover battle.
Michigan 34, Washington 27
January 4th, 2024 at 10:25 AM ^
Smitty1233 Preview
Rush Ball limit possessions - They are allowing 4.5 a pop bodes well for this
Pressure Penix like we did Milroe. If we can do this with 4 that would be huge. If we need to blitz something tells me we won't confuse Penix as much as we did Milroe and he is likely going to make some plays
Clean up the special teams. Make Field goals and convert the things we have all year
Continue the physical style of play
January 4th, 2024 at 10:39 AM ^
I definitely think we only rush 4 most of the time. I get the Washington O_lIne is great at a pass pro, but hear me out. Our front 4 no matter who we trot out there can get push against these guys, constrict the pocket and force Penix to make harder throws. I don't think he's going to have all day to sit in a clean pocket with our big boys in the middle coming for him, and that will be more true as the game goes on and we start to wear them down with our D-Line rotation.
So hammer them with 4, let Colson or Barrett keep an eye on him so he doesn't take off, and keep things in front of you. Let Will Johnson cover his guy and double the other WR. They'll get their yards but with or coverages i think we can make him think twice, our D-Line can get push to make him think a third time and you'll get some stops in there. Keep him under 400 yards passing, keep things in front of you, and we win. FGs are like gold for our defense. Washington can't win unless thye're scoring 5+ touchdowns.
January 4th, 2024 at 11:00 AM ^
I only trust Minter's assessment and approach "about infinitely" more than my own.
I think Penix is different than Milroe, as is the Huskies receiving corps vs Bama - and the Huskies receiving corps probably resembles OSU more than Bama.
What did you think of how Michigan opened against Bama? I thought the pressure from the start was incredible - and, a sound strategy. Will that work against Washington? My guess is - that's the question everyone wants to have answered. Washington's OL is definitely stronger than OSU's - and, a bit (but how much) stronger than Bama's?
There will be a bit of "pick the horse" - do you rush with four and rely on the seconday, realizing Penix / Washington is good with short drops and quick passes? OR - do you add pressure - hoping to take away a lane / impact his vision / forcing an even quicker attempt?
I don't know the answer - but, am looking forward to Minter - the D - the assistants - and, the "cook book". My assumption is - Michigan is going to do things that have not yet been seen on film.
Go Blue!
January 4th, 2024 at 11:07 AM ^
Is it crazy to think that Penix is a more dangerous threat running the ball than Milroe was given that Milroe’s rushing attempts are often designed plays that defenses scheme against and Penix is more of a scrambler with wheels designed to pick up 1st downs?
I don’t know but I’ve seen Penix extend drives putting more pressure on defenses and eventually forcing defensive backs to keep an eye on him outside the pocket when plays break down.
January 4th, 2024 at 11:11 AM ^
There needs to be enough pressure to force quick throws, and then our season-long excellent tackling to limit big plays. Avoiding explosive plays is a big key.
January 4th, 2024 at 11:26 AM ^
Washington's strength on the OL are its tackles. Our strength on the DL is the interior. I'm feeling good about that matchup and our ability to collapse the pocket from the middle, which as Klatt explains, is the best way to disrupt Penix. If we can get to him early on the first drive--like we did against Milroe--that is huge and sets the tone and mindset.
On offense, I really really hope we're able to push them around and grind out a couple soul-crushing, run-heavy, time-eating drives early in the game. I want an eight-minute drive in the first quarter that puts us ahead.
January 4th, 2024 at 10:43 AM ^
He's still taking credit for Boa Constrictor. I think it appeared on MGoBlog almost a year earlier than Klatt's first reference
January 4th, 2024 at 12:26 PM ^
He went out of his way to take credit for it. Shameless!
January 4th, 2024 at 2:19 PM ^
I love Klatt. He's the best in the business. He probably doesn't even know that he got it from our very own Alex Drain in his MSU 2022 post-game write-up.
Another Jim Harbaugh-infused beatdown of an opponent at the Big House that resembled a boa constrictor slowly strangling its prey.
January 4th, 2024 at 10:44 AM ^
i hate people picking us... it stinks of TCU last year. Luckily, i'm not the one putting on the pads, but too much adoration ... not good. I hope our guys play desperate as hell. every time this washington team is doubted, they come up big. NOBODY thought they'd beat oregon, and they handled them ... again...
The sting of a loss would be borderline unbearable... so... put it all out there until the final whistle.
I need more people to ding us and make our guys angry.
Did you hear that Penix said we were a flaccid bunch on defense.. can't seem to get up for the big games.
I hear their coach said that our coaches are all cheaters and should be banned...
Let that spread like wildfire
January 4th, 2024 at 11:05 AM ^
I must admit - I was more than a bit concerned when Lee Corso donned a Michigan helmet during his selection on Monday (prior to the Rose Bowl).
Perhaps that "demon" and others like it - have been exorcised.
Go Blue!
January 4th, 2024 at 11:26 AM ^
People are going to make picks as they see them and Mich is the #1 team in the country and just slayed their Bama/CFP semifinal dragon so to speak. Wash is a great team, well-tested, and undefeated. Just so happens that Michigan is the same with a lot of veteran leadership that tends to help in these big game (See: last week’s Rose Bowl).
Also the celebrity/Corso type picks are more humorous and ceremonial than anything. I don’t mind the guy and hope he stays in good health as he gets older but the College Gameday crew is one bad accident away from having to reenact Weekend at Bernie’s by putting sunglasses on the man.
January 4th, 2024 at 11:45 AM ^
A separate comment - regarding Macdonald and Minter, along with Jim bringing them in.
What makes Michigan attractive to a prospect? We can talk about stars - roster talent - etc. It seems to me that the key item is - the sophistication of an NFL defense at the college level. How the unit comminicates with each other - the keys and adjustments that need to be made - and, playing it "every day".
The culture of the team is a big deal. And, it makes me wonder what the decision points are going through a prospect's mind - when they look at how together the team is.
Go Blue!
January 4th, 2024 at 12:41 PM ^
Thanks for posting. I enjoy how he analyzes things.
January 4th, 2024 at 1:01 PM ^
Joel's analyses are always insightful. Often repeats what Seth, Brian, and Alex have to say, but that's not surprising given the quality of the writing on this blog!
January 4th, 2024 at 5:05 PM ^
I didn't think I'd listen to this in its entirety but I did. Very well done and as the OP mentions, worth the listen.
I think M wins because as Joel lays out, there are more "paths" to an M victory. Now especially with their RB1 potentially hampered for the game, they'll be even more reliant upon the passing attack making them even more one dimensional.
Their defense is not bad but mid-level at best based on prior performance and it seem unlikely they'll be able to stop the run. Our DL is great and should give Penix some trouble and if they don't, hopefully the secondary bails them out. They're still very dangerous as the big play ability is there at any moment, but as they say - defense wins championships. Nothing is guaranteed, but I like the matchup.
35-21 good guys. Go Blue.
January 5th, 2024 at 2:50 PM ^
Question for MgoBoard's Math experts that's been in my brain re: Joel Klatt's analysis.
It seems to me that Joel's analysis is all wrong for Washington's key to winning. Per Joel, Washington wants to increase the number of possessions because Washington's "big play" ability.
But, that--to me--is not the right analysis. Like Vegas wins by the law of large numbers and increase number of bets, the better team normally wants the greater # of possessions. But, Joel is positing that Michigan is the better team (i.e., more ways to win). Joel's analysis fails to consider that: a) each team gets basically the same number of possessions; and b) that each possession results in limited upside (i.e., 0, 3 or 7) (i.e., no possession results in a "big play" (e.g., 45 yard pass) getting 7 points and a small play (e.g., 3 yard run) getting only 3. Joel's analysis is good IF each possession got only one play. But, that's not how it works.
Thoughts?