Jon Wilner does the AP Poll Right - Utah #2, Michigan #11
Yes he picked UM #11 but that is not why. He bases the polls based on this year only and body of work only thus far this year. He does it as if there were no such things as pre-season polls. You can disagree with any specific pick but the logic of using this year only and actual results rather than presumptions is the way it should be. (and yes UM benefited from the current system for many years when they entered the season top 10 due to brand)
https://twitter.com/wilnerhotline
College football and basketball writer for@MercNews, @BANG_Sports.
*** Utah climbed nine spots, to No. 2, because of its resounding victory at Oregon and because of Michigan’s shutout of Brigham Young. The Wolverines’ result indicates they are, a pretty good team at this point. That, in turn, elevates the quality of Utah’s Week 1 win in Salt Lake City.
Bottom line: The Utes have the best combination of wins in the country (Michigan and Oregon), and for that reason I considered them for No. 1. Eventually, I determined Ole Miss should remain on top given the strength of its victory at Alabama (as currently viewed).
September 27th, 2015 at 2:42 PM ^
September 27th, 2015 at 3:02 PM ^
The post has little to do with UM #11 - more about Utah having a great resume now and deserving top 5 status which he is rewarding. Also not rewarding team like OSU who has beaten 1 decent team and 3 puffcakes. TCU is also down for their struggles - LSU ranked highly for 2 conf wins + another P5 win on the road etc.
If you look at the 7 pt loss as a "good loss" combined with a win over a top 25 team (he still has BYU top 25) then dominating a P5 team in OSU UMs ranking makes sense. Personally dont care too much unless we beat MSU where they are ranked but I like the logic statements he is making which is different than 95% of them out there.
By the way some dude named John Adams (NTJA) ranked Utah #1. Adams has OSU #10 and MSU #9. So he seems to be doing it the "right way" as well.
http://collegepolltracker.com/football/pollster/john-adams/2015/week-5
Utah had 3 other writers vote them #2, and 2 others vote them #3.
This other guy has OSU #1 but rest of his top 10 also fits "this year's results"
September 27th, 2015 at 4:36 PM ^
criticism would be to question why Oregon and Michigan State are regarded so highly when they have little other than last year's results to support it. Michigan State has been struggling against teams the #2 team should be hammering and Oregon has a mediocre MSU victory and a trouncing at the hands of Utah on their resume.
Drew Sharp puts a lot of thought into his picks also. I have a picture of him mulling his picks.
September 27th, 2015 at 2:43 PM ^
September 27th, 2015 at 2:47 PM ^
September 27th, 2015 at 2:52 PM ^
A 40 point asspounding at Autzen >>> a 1 touchdown win in East Lansing.
September 27th, 2015 at 3:10 PM ^
September 27th, 2015 at 3:24 PM ^
ND should not be that high. GT clearly is not that good of a team. And Virginia is awful. Boise St just blitzed them with their backup QB.
September 27th, 2015 at 3:31 PM ^
September 27th, 2015 at 7:17 PM ^
September 27th, 2015 at 4:05 PM ^
LSU #3, OSU #4, and then I think these top 4 make a lot of sense right now, but in the end, who cares? BEAT MARYLAND!!!
September 27th, 2015 at 2:43 PM ^
September 27th, 2015 at 2:55 PM ^
They still won on the road vs a program considered top 3 annually, are a team loaded with NFL talent (some mocks have 3-4 guys in top 20 of 1st round) and beat some baby seals by 60+ pts. You have to put someone in top 5. Every team has issues you can point at "How could UCLA only win by 1 @ home vs BYU? They are not top 5!!" "How can TCU be top 5 - barely squeaking out wins!!!" "all of Notre Dames wins are frauds!" etc
September 27th, 2015 at 3:19 PM ^
He cites "the strength of its win over Alabama" as the reason to vote them number one. I don't think it's that strong of a win when Alabama turned the ball over five times. I think Ole Miss is a great team but I wouldn't point to that win as a reason to rank them #1.
September 27th, 2015 at 4:00 PM ^
There are two teams involved with every turnover. Ole Miss should get some credit for forcing turnovers and being opportunistic off of those turnovers. When you get a team to turn the ball over 5 times at home you are doing something right.
September 27th, 2015 at 2:43 PM ^
I like that he is taking into account only the season, but after 4 games you still have some weird circumstances such as MSU being #3 because the team they barely beat got waxed by a really good team. And TCU is ranked #9 for struggling to beat a very mediocre Minny offense and then needing a miracle to beat TTU.
I prefer this over the preseason-based rankings, but this is also why a lot of the advanced rankings take about a month and a half to be relevant because the noise is still too pronounced.
September 27th, 2015 at 2:45 PM ^
Most impressive teams I've seen so far are Ole Miss, LSU, and Notre Dame.
September 27th, 2015 at 2:57 PM ^
I like GA team but they have not beaten anyone yet. South Carolina is real bad this year. The other 3 teams they beat are LA-Monroe, Southern Univ, and Vandy. LSU beat better teams IMO.
September 27th, 2015 at 2:45 PM ^
If this is how he approaches the polls, how does he justify Oregon at #17? The strength of their 61-42 win over Eastern Washington? I think he is doing things the right way, but having Oregon anywhere in the rankings, let alone the Top 20, is ridiculous.
September 27th, 2015 at 4:17 PM ^
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September 27th, 2015 at 2:50 PM ^
September 27th, 2015 at 2:55 PM ^
Incredibly reasoned decision-making...and then ranks Ole Miss #1 after they barely got by Vanderbilt at home.
September 27th, 2015 at 3:03 PM ^
September 27th, 2015 at 3:22 PM ^
September 27th, 2015 at 2:55 PM ^
I'm wondering how he has BYU anywhere in this poll. Then again he has Miss. #1 so I guess luck counts for much.
September 27th, 2015 at 2:59 PM ^
Other than VA I dont think any team has had a rougher schedule than BYU. 3 P5 teams + Boise. 3 on the road.
Road win vs a prob 8 win Neb, home win vs prob a 10 win Boise, "quality loss" to top 10 UCLA. Yes the UM loss makes them look bad but you can use the excuse everyone was talking yest about being worn out. BYU probably ends up with 9 wins barring some weird upsets - their schedule gets much easier from here as they have to front load everything due to being an independent.
September 27th, 2015 at 3:33 PM ^
Unfortunately for the B1G beating Neb. aint what it used to be. I'll give some credit to Miss for hanging on but that was more an Ala foot shooting to me.
September 27th, 2015 at 3:01 PM ^
As for Ole Miss... Who's looked better than them this year? 70+ points against cupcakes... Dropping 40+ on Bama... A preseason #1 ish defense... Ole Miss is #1. There's no doubt about that 4 weeks into the season. Let the season play out, it will all work out. Ole Miss has to still play LSU, Texas A&M, and their rivalry game with Miss St... Ohio state still has to play us and MSU... The #'s will all work out.
September 27th, 2015 at 2:56 PM ^
I don't argue this guy's point at ALL...makes perfect sense. But everyone else isn't using the same thought process/criteria.
There's no perfect way to do it...but TWO things are certain.
- Come up with a criteria for voting...what should the evaluater be considering?
- Don't start polls until at least AFTER week 4 when most non-conference games have been played.
This week should be the very FIRST week of polls...and we should know exxactly what the voters are supposed to be voting on.
You shouldn't be penalized or rewarded from the previous season and a preseason poll thus making it harder or easier to climb up the polls. Judge everyone now based off of the four games played and the weeks moving forward.
September 27th, 2015 at 3:03 PM ^
If only the real polls made as much sense as this guy's. This is also why preseason rankings are pointless. They should wait until after week six to break out a poll.
September 27th, 2015 at 2:58 PM ^
September 27th, 2015 at 3:05 PM ^
I think at this point making Michigan #11 is a little crazy (just as I still don't know what MSU has done to rank ahead of LSU and Notre Dame), but I do approve of his method and wish it were more widespread. Preseason polls are based on purely on impressions from last year and what we assume about the guys coming back, and it's not right that two teams who have had roughly the same season can still be ranked far apart at the seventh or eighth week all because one was ranked higher in the perception-based preseason polls.
September 27th, 2015 at 3:06 PM ^
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September 27th, 2015 at 3:12 PM ^
September 27th, 2015 at 3:40 PM ^
September 27th, 2015 at 4:13 PM ^
September 27th, 2015 at 6:04 PM ^
If you are ignoring preconceptions...what has Utah done to deserve being ranked #2?
They squeaked by Michigan at home -- best thing they did.
Oh Oregon? The 2-2 team whose best with is Eastern Washington (who they gave up 42 points to?)
Same applies to MSU. A team that has been outgained in 3 out of 4 games... why are they #3?
The answer: preconceptions. Namely, the idea that Oregon is good, based on past seasons.
September 27th, 2015 at 6:14 PM ^
Yep, they hung with MSU, who is good because....they beat Oregon. See how this is ridiculous?
If you really want to not look at past year you have to consider the possibility that MSU and Oregon are below average power 5 teams.
Utah did better against Oregon than they did against Utah State and Fresno.
Michigan State has played 3 teams outside of the power 5 and not beaten any of them convincingly and was outgained by 2 of them.
I appreciate the sentiment behind this, but it's nearly impossible to not have any preconceptions. If that's this guys goal he failed quite badly.
September 27th, 2015 at 6:33 PM ^
Oregon and Alabama are only good wins for Utah and Mississippi, respectively, due to the former teams' past performances. Therefore, he can't escape basing some of this on previous seasons.
Now, for a metric that ONLY bases on results this season, check out the SRS ratings at college football reference, where Michigan is ... uh ... doing quite well.
September 27th, 2015 at 6:46 PM ^
September 27th, 2015 at 9:30 PM ^
I am far from a hater (except for that I really hate them) and I really respect what Mork has done there, but c'mon. Their schedule/performance has not yet earned them any ranking of such height.