JJ's QBR -- not so bad!
QBR is ESPN's fancy stats measure of quarterback quality.
It's proprietary, so one can't say exactly what it's measuring, but it takes the expected points added per play (also proprietary) and adjusts it for how much those points affect the win probability (also proprietary). Presumably that means that if your team is up by a lot or down by a lot and you want to take some risks and maybe throw an interception, that's fine, but throwing an interception late in a close game is very much not fine. Finally it adjusts for the quality of defense faced. In theory, this should be the best measure of quarterback quality, but since it's all secret, who knows.
Here's the national leaderboard:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/qbr
Looks good to me!
P.S. If you want to get a sense of how seriously you should take this as proof that JJ is significantly better than Caleb Williams, take a look at the big ten rankings: https://www.espn.com/college-football/qbr/_/group/5 and decide how likely it is that it has Gavin Wimsatt and Taulia Tagovailoa correctly ranked. By the end of the season, though, it's pretty accurate.
P.P.S. If you want to be depressed, take a look at how excited we all were about Shea Patterson back in mid November of 2018: https://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/shea-patterson-3-espn-total-qbr
September 11th, 2023 at 2:50 PM ^
Nice! I like that the QBR is not just a "who can throw for 500 yards against a poor defense" type measure.
Here's a fancy graph of QB performance from CFB Numbers that also shows JJ to be ranked very nicely.
September 11th, 2023 at 3:09 PM ^
Anyone else surprised to see Kyle McCord on a similar tier as Jayden Daniels and Quinn Ewers?
September 11th, 2023 at 3:20 PM ^
He is ranked right about where OSU will be ranked after they lose to ND…
September 11th, 2023 at 7:23 PM ^
Ahead of Prime’s son for what it’s worth
September 11th, 2023 at 3:09 PM ^
Does this data reflect ONLY week two, or season cumulative THROUGH week two?
Thanks...
September 11th, 2023 at 3:58 PM ^
It looks like he's only using the weekly data, not the cumulative data.
September 11th, 2023 at 4:20 PM ^
Yeah McCord would be much lower if they included his week one. One week is sort of meaningless when most everyone is playing tune-up games.
September 11th, 2023 at 7:10 PM ^
So week 2 wasn't a tune up game for most teams?
September 11th, 2023 at 3:16 PM ^
Looks like JJ is just "a-head" of Penix.
September 11th, 2023 at 5:47 PM ^
How did PFF watch Shedeur Sanders against Nebraska and come away impressed? He was awful in the first half
September 11th, 2023 at 2:50 PM ^
he's not better than caleb williams, but that's okay. his numbers wont stay as lofty when competition increases, particularly teams that have good defense, something apparently optional when playing in the Pac10.
The only thing I want him to have is 15 W's this season. Caleb can have all the others.
September 11th, 2023 at 3:04 PM ^
Respectfully, are you saying there's actually a good defense in the Pac-12, that some teams in the Pac-12 play defense, or - that it's a B1G specific question since it appears the Pac-12 and defense are terms like "oil and water"?
And, on the character question - I'd pick JJ over Williams seven days a week - twice on Saturdays.
September 11th, 2023 at 3:49 PM ^
Utah plays defense? Maybe that's it. :)
September 11th, 2023 at 3:13 PM ^
Depends what "better" means. As an NFL prospect, JJ is showing more NFL QB traits than Caleb (in JJ's 2 starts against creampuffs). Now, that doesn't mean Caleb can't do what JJ is doing, but in Michigan's offense JJ is asked to make NFL style progressions and throws -- and he's been nearly flawless.
September 11th, 2023 at 3:48 PM ^
Caleb is the #1 pick next year and its not because of potential or because of the awards. JJ can probably play his way upwards on that chart to top 5-10 with a great year and a great showing at whatever combine type QB things they do.
Just saying .. in this case.. he's a better prospect because everyone says he is. Then again, Justin Fields aint exactly lighting the world on fire, and I'd say they're similar in some respects.
Who will have the better NFL career? I think its been proven that nobody has a damn clue!
September 11th, 2023 at 7:44 PM ^
TRVB,
I live in Chicago - and the hype about Fields has been incredible - essentially, saying Fields is a franchise QB - as talented as Mahomes - etc.
When I saw Fields miss a wide open QB for a TD against Minnesota last season, I wondered. The more he plays - the clearer it is that those comparisons weren’t warranted.
Will Wilson be the next Fields? Maybe Ryan Leaf? Time will tell…
September 11th, 2023 at 5:49 PM ^
Exactly, Williams probably has more natural ability but JJ seems more refined and has shown more traits that the NFL wants out of someone running an offense. I also wonder how much of Caleb Williams wild plays are going to fly in the NFL. Gives me shades of Johnny Football
September 11th, 2023 at 6:00 PM ^
Williams' improvisational style is not going to work in the NFL. Defenses are much faster and better prepared. Also, he will not last more than 3 games. A mobile QB who can improvise when needed (see Mahomes), but stays in the pocket most of the time is what the NFL looks for. If JJ puts up numbers close to Williams while staying in the pocket, he will be near the top, if not the top prospect.
September 11th, 2023 at 7:16 PM ^
JJ's season ending numbers (attempts/comp; yards; TD's) won't be close to Williams' because of the different offenses and coaching styles they have. Harbaugh is an NFL type run first guy that doesn't believe in running up scores. Riley runs a long ball pass first and second offense that emphasizes big plays downfield and runs up scores like nobodies business.
Otherwise, yeah, JJ will be right there with Williams as an NFL prospect.
September 11th, 2023 at 2:51 PM ^
Interesting that Kyle McCord is above Sanders and Ewers (and Maye). You would never know it from reading the headlines.
September 11th, 2023 at 3:11 PM ^
McCord was helped tremendously last week when Youngstown St decided to not cover certain Belitinikoff-caliber WRs at all. Watch the highlights. The difference between what JJ did on Saturday and what McCord did was night and day. Early yet so he may get it figured out but let’s see how he does against real defenses first.
September 11th, 2023 at 3:27 PM ^
Is Jim Tressel still president of Youngstown State?
September 11th, 2023 at 4:03 PM ^
Jim retired from YSU as President on Feb 1, 2023.
In 2021, Jim said that he hoped to live long enough to see OSU lead all-time series with UM. "Then I can sleep happy." At that time, Jim was 68 years old and the rivalry stood at 58-51-6. Of course, he is now 2 years older and of course 2 wins further from tying the series.
Thankfully, I don't see Jim ever sleeping happily.
September 11th, 2023 at 5:41 PM ^
Just announced: Tressel will become co-interim-associate head coach at Staee along with Dantoni.
September 11th, 2023 at 2:57 PM ^
JJ also came out of the gates pretty damn hot last year then regressed a bit.
But, this year just feels different- a year older a year wiser. I think he'll continue and maintain this special performance. He just seems to have a different aura.
September 11th, 2023 at 3:25 PM ^
The highlight on the mid Nov 2018 list, Brock Purdy at #4.
September 11th, 2023 at 3:34 PM ^
I don't give a shit what anyone says I'm fully convinced JJ is the best quarterback in the country.
Based on what I'm seeing I feel like that's 80% data and 20% homerism.
September 11th, 2023 at 3:37 PM ^
I'm surprised where Sam Hartman is. I thought he's looked pretty good.
September 11th, 2023 at 3:40 PM ^
I wonder what the Clemson fans that bitched about their QB last season think of this list.
September 11th, 2023 at 3:41 PM ^
Lot of really interesting takeaways looking at this chart.
- It's obviously early, but good start for Dante Moore at UCLA as a true freshman
- DJ is playing well this year... good for him. Meanwhile back at Clemson, Cade is really struggling.
- In another transfer situation GT is much happier with Haynes King vs. Jeff Sims who left them to go to Nebraska
- Thorne is so far only marginally better than Kim so who knows?
- Hartman has been a huge upgrade for ND.
- It's almost a push between Ewers and Milroe, but it really didn't feel that close watching them play.
- And finally, Cade, Joe Milton and Alan Bowman all well below JJ, so seems like our coaches got it right
September 11th, 2023 at 4:48 PM ^
Dante Moore jumped out to me too -- he has looked good, albeit not against world-beaters. It's interesting because so far it looks like he made the right call, if he's ready NOW but still wouldn't have beaten out JJ. Still early in the season, but it's interesting in the context of the Underwood recruitment.
September 11th, 2023 at 3:54 PM ^
Click on the All Time Bests tab to really feel special.
September 11th, 2023 at 4:15 PM ^
Unequivocal proof that JJ is better than Joe Burrow
September 11th, 2023 at 5:01 PM ^
I watched that game yesterday: no one is better than Joe Burrow. Could his contract be the Tucker of all NFL contracts?
September 11th, 2023 at 5:17 PM ^
Cade at 97….yeesh.
In Soviet Kinnick, Iowa quarterbacks you.
September 11th, 2023 at 5:41 PM ^
I try my best not to wish ill on anyone... but I chuckled when I had to click the 'Show More' tab to find Cade McNamara... at #97
Sorry not sorry 😅〽️
September 11th, 2023 at 5:47 PM ^
JJ sensational so far. Thanks for posting.
September 11th, 2023 at 10:19 PM ^
Patterson gets a bad rap. He played well on teams that weren’t nearly as talented as those of the last three years. He threw 45 TD passes and ranks in the Michigan top 10 in every passing category. He was certainly a better QB than McNamara.