Israel optimistic about COVID vaccine "in a few weeks"
And yes, there are regulatory hoops as well, but the Trump Administration has already said it intends to relax some of those.
If it's progressing as well as they say, this is VERY good news.
Of course, if you'd rather wallow in fear and hand-wringing, carry on...
EDIT: I believe the regulatory items talked in the article are more Israeli than U.S., but what was said about the FDA relaxing some regulations is true.
Yes. The FDA has already issued several EUAs (Emergency Use Authorizations) for tests, which I think is entirely appropriate for the situation.
It takes year+ to properly test for a vaccine. Even if Israel thinks they might have something worth testing, this won't be safely available for a long time. Vaccines have to be INCREDIBLY safe. If it kills ~0.1% of the population, that still could mean half a million dead in the US alone. You need extensive, and lengthy testing to make sure something like this could not happen.
I bought new glasses from Israel like a month ago. Very satisfied with those so hopefully they have the same level of craftsmanship in this whole deal.
How does this compare to the many other vaccine efforts that are already going on?
Are they further along than these efforts that are already in clinical trials? Not asking to be a pessimist, just truly confused about the 90 day time estimates when others who seem to be at a similar stage of development cite much longer times.
First, thank you for the article. That's pretty cool stuff.
Second, I don't know how far they are in that regard.
I DO know that they just happened to be working on a vaccine for an earlier strand of coronavirus which led to them getting a good jump on this strand.
Which always made me scratch my head: the coronavirus is not a new virus. I would think that vaccines for previous strands would already be available. Why would it take so long to develop one for this particular strand? From what I understand it's not THAT drastically different from previous strands.
The issue isn't developing one, that can be done very quickly. The issue is ensuring that the vaccine is safe for humans long term & there is no way to "rush" that process.
The FDA did loosen regulations which is why a vaccine has already started human testing despite never being tested on animals first. Here's to hoping the first time's the charm because we are well behind the curve at this point.
Coronavirus is a type of virus so Covid-19 is in the same "family" as SARS & MERS
This is how planet of the apes started
Let those damn dirty apes have their turn while we wait in the shadows for our time to rise again.
Coronaviruses are just a class of viruses with a particular kind of genetic material and a particular kind of outer shell. Other than that they can be completely different. In particular, what features of human cells allow them to infect us can differ, and what antibodies our bodies have to develop to fight them can differ. So insofar as being "THAT drastically different" from other coronaviruses is a matter of requiring new treatments and new vaccines, they are that different.
March 20th, 2020 at 12:20 AM ^
We haven't exactly had good luck making a vaccine for the most common coronavirus (the common cold).
" the coronavirus is not a new virus. "
THIS coronavirus is a new virus.
Coronavirus is a virus FAMILY.
It will take about 14 months for a vaccine to be approved for distribution. Another 4 months to make it for everyone. Don't get to excited yet.
Does that take into account the fact that (at least here in the U.S.) regulation stops are going to be pulled?
Because I'll bet $$$ that things will be sped up in this case.
You can't speed this part up. You don't want to distribute something that's going to kill people. They skipped animal testing and have gone straight to human testing. You have to appreciate these courageous individuals.
The 14 months is largely because, assuming the vaccine works to neutralize the coronavirus, they need to make sure the vaccine doesn't cause other, potentially deadly, effects down the road. Unfortunately, there's no real way to speed that up and you certainly wouldn't want to begin injecting millions of people with a vaccine that has serious side-effects later on.
I think much of the red-tape being eliminated is on the front-end, getting vaccines into clinical trials faster. That's my understanding from what I've read (I'm not a medical expert).
this describes some if the process. Hard to imagine you want to skip any of that. A vaccine that kills 0.5% of the people who use it would not be very useful. I suspect FDA would throw lots of resources at the review process to speed that up. Key question is probably how much time is taken up by sequential testing vs how much is FDA review of submitted data.
It's possible to take the first vaccine that innoculates against the disease and give it to everyone faster than 18 months. It is not possible to know what will happen to all of those people after innoculation.
To give you an example, children in Europe still don't get vaccinated against chicken pox, despite that being a standard vaccine in the US. Why not? Well, they are waiting to see (among other things) whether Americans who got the vaccine all get horrible cases of shingles when they get older. And they're happy to let us be the guinea pigs in that regard.
It’s great if it works, but if it doesn’t, I’m pretty sure that how the zombie apocalypse starts. Stay safe peeps.
If I had a dollar for every news story I heard about a covid-19 vaccine almost being ready in the US, Canada, and now Israel, I'd be a rich man
Well you’d actually have like 6 dollars.
Realistically we will hear a lot of these stories in the coming weeks/months.
The overall public reaction to this has backed us into a corner that we cannot reasonably get out of. At this point, absent a vaccine, this way of life that has been adopted is permanent. The fear level is too high, people won’t even look at each other in public. People are literally calling for the imposition of martial law on themselves. Think your kids are going back to school next fall? Think again. At this point a vaccine is about the only thing that can quite literally save the civilized world.
Pray to god.
If.China has a significant relapse as they relax restrictions maybe. But if they don’t, there will be significant economic pressure to get back to normal.
Let's see where we are in a few weeks.
Right now we are still in, for lack of a better word, the "novelty" stage of this "current new way of life."
Cabin fever hasn't set in, we are at a time on the calendar where the weather isn't great in most places (it's a blizzard where I am today), the challenges of full-time remote work haven't fully set in, people aren't economically hurting (yet), we aren't missing vacations and weddings and holidays and trips to the cabin/beach.
Et cetera.
That will change in a few weeks. And there will be a VERY robust discussion that will be had: how much are we willing to curtail the economy and our personal liberties in the pursuit of 100% safety.
I know where I am (you too) in that debate. And I think the number of people on that side of the debate will increase over the next few weeks. Some level of risk is an inherent part of life. I'll get neg votes for saying that, but that is true - Ben Franklin (and all our Founding Fathers) knew it was true too.
Well said.
You get a lot of "neg votes" here, but I appreciate your thoughts & posts.
You aren't wrong - a lot of people seemingly want martial law declared on themselves. I don't get that.
I simply don't want to infect my mom or aunts or uncles or parents of my friends. Or anyone's.
Also, fevers are a bitch, I don't want to catch one.
Dude, if this virus is as prevalent as many believe it already is, people are just going to have to take necessary precautions to keep themselves safe to whatever extent they feel the need to. Older Americans will have to be more cautious, those will preexisting conditions as well. If some people want to go nuts and keep their kids away from EVERYTHING, not eat in restaurants, become shut ins, that is their call, but you can’t force people to cancel their life indefinitely “in the event” they have an asymptomatic illness that could possibly cause somebody else to get sick. That is the loss of liberty man. That is basically incarceration. I know that most on this blog require a certain train of thought, it’s pretty fascist like that around here. But that is truly crazy talk.
People's lives would be cancelled by the coronavirus no matter what. Schools would be closing for weeks anyway because students and staff would be sick.
The government is the only entity authorized or able to mitigate the worst circumstances. You can still go wherever and do whatever the hell you want. You just have to take out from restaurants, work out from home, etc. That's not losing your fucking liberty dude, unless you're really soft.
Yes, people are going to grow more weary of aggressive social distancing as time wears on. But people are also going to see what it looks like when the demand for hospitals radically exceeds capacity, which hasn't happened yet en masse but almost certainly will in the coming weeks. There are going to be a lot of pressures on public opinion, and I don't think anyone has a good feel for how they're going to balance out.
Since we are taking the measures we are, shouldn’t we just wait and see if that happens at hospitals? I’m not trying to be dismissive here, but I drove by an ER today and it was business as usual. It looked dead as shit. Kroger was a damn madhouse but there were tumbleweeds in the parking lot of the medical facility.
This is going to change very soon...like next week or so.
Expect shortages of truck drivers, supermarkets closing due to an infected employee...same with entire Walmart Costco or Sam's Club Stores.
Expect large online entities like Amazon to struggle as they also will begin shuttering regional warehouses.
The empty ER you passed will be full within 5 to 7 days and that madhouse Kroger you saw may be closed in that time.
An Amazon warehouse was just shut down from 1 infected worker. Tellingly the other workers complained to newspapers that Amazon expected them to return to work and that Amazon "was playing with their lives". Think about that on a national level with all the organizations that supply, transport and sell food staples.
The one thing we can depend on is delivered pizza which means Sparty won't have a recession.
Shouldn’t we just see if that happens instead of proclaiming that it will? Preparedness is good but saying it as a guarantee seems odd.
No, because by that point it's too fucking late.
March 19th, 2020 at 10:02 PM ^
Nine days ago a prominent Democrat pundit said we'd be there in 10 days. Here we are...
March 19th, 2020 at 11:43 PM ^
You drive by an ER today? Seriously? Well then, I guess everything is ok.
LOL. Seriously. What a stupid comment. I looked at a building and didn't see people outside in front projectile vomiting with blood shooting out of their eyes, so I think we're good.
You perfectly described the problem. Yes, in areas where the virus is just starting, Hospitals are doing ok in regards to volume. We are already running out of protective gear though. People like you apparently believe because it isn’t bad yet, that means it’s time to go about your lives. Where do you think all of those people at your “madhouse” Kroger will be in a few weeks? The virus is already here, those people at Kroger, some already have it and other are being exposed. Fast forward two weeks from now. The government is trying to prevent cases before they happen. Trying to prevent an exponential rise in cases. If everyone waits until things are out of control before they take precautions, it will already be too late.
ERs have less volume now because people aren't just showing up with a hangnail. Also, ERs can now screen for virus symptoms and send people where they really need to go. People abuse the system regularly.
Unfortunately, in this case it's not the risk you choose for yourself, it's the risk you impose on others.
The risk our founding fathers took imposed risks on others as well - namely, the citizens of all thirteen colonies.
I mean if you want to find a crowd at Costco and touch everyone I'm sure you could get it yourself tomorrow. Then just stay at home and you'd probably be immune in 2 weeks. Pretend it's a staycation.
Same with the Confederate states.
First - I have reduced my social and physical interactions over the last week. On the order of 80% (yes, I've visited stores for groceries, gone on walks, and I did meet a couple folks for lunch in the park). I think I'm doing my part, and I am fine with this for the time being.
Second - everything that a person does could be considered a "risk imposed on others":
1) Take a new job. I might be awesome at that job, and lead my new company to a greater market share, and cause one of our competitors to go bankrupt, and those folk now lose their jobs. Their job loss could be blamed on the risk I took in taking a new job.
2) Look for and buy a new house. I am increased the housing demand in my market. Prices are now higher, and some other couple may not be able to afford the house in that market and must move to some other city. Their move could be blamed on the risk I took in looking for new housing.
3) Attend a college football game. I will drive to that game, I will be another car on the road. There is a chance that my tire blows out while driving down the freeway, causing an accident that kills 2 people. Their deaths could be blamed on the risk I took in driving to the game - if I had watched at home, they would not have died.
Or conversely .......
4) Ordering groceries from Amazon during this crisis. I may stay in my home, but workers still have to be in the warehouse and people still have to deliver my stuff. Some of them may die in a car accident. Their deaths could be blamed on the "safe move" I made by social distancing!
Point being, 100% safety is impossible.
Your analogies couldn't be worse.
This is why I don't donate to any medical research. 600,000 deaths from cancer in the US is nothing. And that's just in 1 year. This coronabullshit would just be 4 years of cancer coming at once. Car accidents are only 35K a year, so what's 2+ million deaths from a one-time virus? I want to work and watch sports!!!
Yeah screw the older population. Good thing you’ll never be old.
Can we get an app that tells me what stores have toilet paper in stock?
Having a candidate vaccine should only take a few weeks. Appropriate clinical testing is what takes months and months, and it's not necessarily something you want to waive. It's not waiting for paperwork to move from one agency to another. It's how long it takes to run appropriate phase I and phase II trials at a minimum, even if you let them skimp on phase III (large scale clinical).