Interesting data points regarding possible realignment scenarios
I would not have thought Washington State would be sixth on that list.
also interesting that the SEC has indicated they are not interested in FSU / Miami and the B1G has put Oregon / Washington on hold.
This stat doesn't mean much. It's probably the other team's fans in most cases. You would need to compare viewership after excluding games against the teams not on this list to have a better idea.
It's not. The OP tweet is from a Staples article in The Athletic. Here's how the breakdown works.
I then examined the games between teams that aren’t in or headed to the Big Ten or SEC (and aren’t Notre Dame) when they played other teams that aren’t in or headed to the Big Ten or SEC (and aren’t Notre Dame). Instead of four million, I set the cutline at one million. We still have the same issue of trying to decipher which school people tuned in to watch, but if a team that cracked a million at least 20 times in six seasons did it against a team that cracked a million twice in six seasons, it’s pretty easy to answer that question. It’s also pretty easy to imagine that if the team that cracked a million at least 20 times played in a league with a bunch of schools that regularly crack three or four million viewers, even more people would watch.
I saw this analysis on the youtubes and thought it raised some pretty interesting points around priority of likely targets - worth watching if you have 15 min to spare. Basic conclusion is Stanford/ND, then Washington and perhaps Cal or Oregon
I live in the Berkeley area. Cal football isn't even that big around here, in this area. Will the BIG10 really want them?
Clemson says 'Hi!'
I think they would be surprised.
Thought the same thing.
There’s no way I’m going to be able to source this but I THINK, Florida has some kind of only school in Florida thing with the SEC. I seem to recall this being a talking point when the BIG and ACC went after the Big East?
I don’t understand why the Big 10 doesn’t simply pull the trigger first. Add: Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Arizona, Stanford and Baylor Ok. State and Kansas for a West Division. In the East, pick up: Syracuse, Miami, Clemson, Ga. Tech, N. Carolina, Duke, Boston College, U. Conn, and Virginia. Save a spot for Notre Dame and if they don’t want to join, we take Florida State, Va Tech, or snatch Vanderbilt from the SEC. Charge triple for the network rights. GAME OVER!!!!!
I don't think there's any way the Big Ten takes schools like Okie State, Kansas, and UConn if they're wishy-washy about Washington and Oregon.
I think they should immediately add Washington, Oregon, Stanford, and Utah---but at a prorated amount, according to their value to the BIG. That amount would probably still be higher than what the Big 12 could pay them.
Would Florida St want the travel being in the BIG10 would make them have? No one is less than a 4 hour total travel time, and as much as maybe 8 hour travel time. Would they go to Michigan and Michigan St and play in snow sometimes?
Nothing is far fetched anymore, these days. Stand by for more breaking news. It's gonna be an interesting summer before toe meets leather in early September.
Because this is primarily about increasing the amount of money each B1G school makes from the media contract (primary revenue source) and also BTN. Cut the pie up in too many slices and $$ per school goes down
In crootin’ terms, many of those schools you listed are not takes.
I think the ACC grant of rights is a holdup. How do they get out of that?
The B1G has time. ND is stuck with Clemson, FSU, Miami, Duke, UNC, VA, GT and VT. If any of those are able to get out of the deal, they’re all up for grabs. Some like UNC, Duke, VA, GT even ND don’t want to go to the SEC. At some point there might be a bidding war, but the SEC doesn’t need ND, Oregon or Washington and the B1G doesn’t need them either.
Maybe they count the WSU fans who always show up on GameDay. The one and only time I watched them was in the 98 Rose Bowl.
Interesting that Washington outstrips both Oregon and Miami
Despite their image as a Tier 1 program, Miami's fan base doesn't seem very large nor committed. It's evident when you see all the empty seats at their home games. I know their stadium is way too far from their campus to get students there en masse, but the alumni don't attend either.
This. And it's not as if their stadium has a large capacity. Simply put, Miami is not a college town. Yes, they had a great period but besides that, not much tradition that pulls...
Miami does not play their home games on campus correct?
That would dq them if I was looking at a school to play for.
I guess that nixes UCLA. USC too, since the coliseum is adjacent, not on, campus.
USC too, since the coliseum is adjacent, not on, campus.
There's a big difference between right outside the edge of campus, i.e. 500 ft. per Google Maps (USC), and 20+ (Miami) or 25+ (UCLA) miles away...
Did you know that Michigan Stadium is not on the academic campus? I would question that most schools have an athletic campus. And it's more than 500 feet from the edge of the academic campus.
Trying to denigrate USC because the football stadium is so far away (closer to ready of campus than Michigan's) sends like a glass house thing.
Washington state has about twice the population of the state of Oregon. So while U of Oregon has been a bit better program the past couple decades, it just doesn't have the built-in fanbase that U of Washington does.
Washington has also been pretty good the last six years though, arguably better than Oregon. I doubt they were ahead of Oregon for the six years before the period of the study, when Oregon was much better.
I suspect this is the reason WSU is relatively high on this list as well.
Also, Miami is definitely third tier in the state of Florida. And it's such a small school, it might even be behind UCF as far as fanbase goes. As good as the they were for a 20 year period from the 80s to early 00s, they're probably closer to Gonzaga in basketball than a large state school, in that they're a small private school with a singularly elite athletic program.
Also surprised WSU is up there, but maybe enough folks from Seattle (including grads) actually watch.
But I also feel like WSU must have an underdog fan base from all across the northern rockies...Boise, and even Montana. No other PAC 12 school nor D1 football school to root for west of North Dakota and East of Seattle that far north.
May get play on tv just for that reason, no stiff D1 tv competition.
That's a good point about Wazzu having fans from Idaho-Montana and the like. Hadn't thought of that. All of Eastern Washington and Oregon too.
I've spent enough time out in the Pullman area to know there ain't much of nothing out there, or anywhere near for that matter. Spokane is an hour away and the next city anyone has heard of is Boise.
If this is the way it breaks, it seems ND (cringe), Oregon, Washington and Stanford would make most sense. Surprised Miami is behind Washington and Oregon.
DrewBledsoeNoddinYEEEAAAHHdotgif
I would wager that Clemson is only that high due to recent success. They probably have nowhere near that many people interested in them normally.
Of course success helps. They ARE one of the Top 5 current programs, so your inference seems like a throwaway. They have a pretty nice atmosphere in their stadium and great recruiting locale.
Yes, but that's how most elite programs get started and then the interest is sticky which is self-reinforcing. Fans taste success, become widely interested, and that pumps resources into the program which generally helps them stay successful.
It's not a guarantee, but they likely have some staying power.
I tend to agree with this point, in that while Clemson has the most 1,000,000+ viewer-games, the only get the really big numbers when they play the most established programs. Success over a decade is not the same as success, even if not a extreme as Clemson's over the last 7 years, over generations. It's the generations of committed B1G and SEC families that build the brand.
At some point, the media money interests will be throwing bales of cash at smoke.
plus wazzou has those fans that fly their flag at every game day, that has to count for something.
The B16 doesn't have to make any more moves. They have the NY, LA, and Chicago markets and just the right amount of schools to maximize each's revenue share.
IF ND comes begging, they'd probably consider it (and bring along Stanford just to keep an even number), but if the goal is just to make money, they're already sitting pretty.
Them begging should be a PPV. I would pay to watch. Hell with ND.
My guess is you're correct here Puti. The B16 is sitting pretty for TV negotiations and no need to slice the pie thinner.
If there were a master plan for the B16 and SEC to get together and try an NCAA coup then they would probably expand a few more teams each and make bank.
Not sure if this would work, but the B1G could offer teams like Washington a smaller share. Potentially both Washington and the rest of the B1G could be better off under such a scenario.
I think this is probably right unless UNC becomes available. I put them second on the Big Ten's wish list. If the Big Ten goes to 20, I think it will most likely be through ND, UNC, Duke and UVA. It could be a battle with the SEC for UNC and UVA, but the Big Ten's academic alliance should be a strong selling point.
I don't think there's any way that Duke gets in because the football is so bad....and basketball doesn't make up for it. I'd like to see UVA and UNC, though.
I really think that B16 needs more of a West Coast presence to balance with USC and UCLA. 2 West Coast teams out of 16 seems dumb...but 4 or 5 out of 20 might make sense (for pod scheduling).
Duke would only get in as a package deal with UNC and UVA. Is there a more attractive set of schools if that's the only way you get UNC? Of course, it comes down to how much value the Big Ten places on academics vs football. It would be great for basketball, which is still worth a fair amount.
I don't like the idea of adding Washington and Oregon. Yes, it makes travel a little easier for USC and UCLA, but I'd put that close to the bottom of the priorities for the Big Ten. The good thing about having two west coast schools in the same city is that in many sports other schools can fly out there and play both with one flight. Travel gets a lot worse when they also have to visit other faraway cities. Similarly, USC and UCLA can have two games scheduled at nearby cities, like AA and EL. It doesn't apply to football, but should cut travel for a lot of sports.
With remote schooling and high ability to pay for lodging, it can apply to football too. UCLA and USC back to back wknds for classic Big 10 in LA and for UCLA/USC in classic big 10 country (more travel for them but still).
Agree it may be easier to just fly back for the students but it's not that bad to stay. I think we'd see it occasionally. Kids would enjoy it.
I think you are right about needing more in the west if we are to expand further. However, Duke football isn't necessarily a bad thing. 1) New state TV market and 2) a conference needs some mediocre teams for the top teams to get to 9 or 10 wins a year.
Duke is a premier national athletic brand due to basketball, is in a state with a growing population and great recruiting base for football and basketball, and is a renowned academic institution (and AAU member). All those things are attractive to the Big 10. No their football team won't bring much viewership but someone does need to lose these games. I could easily see them being in a package with UNC, UVa, and GT.
I would take Duke’s academics and it’s basketball over Nebraska and Rutgers any day of the year.
Great point Raleigh. I can't imagine the B1G standing pat with only 2 West Coast teams.
Notre Dame would not have have to beg to join either the BIG10 or SEC. They are a golden goose. They are $$$.
I still believe ND needs the B1G WAAAAY more than the B1G needs ND. Current ND TV contract is what, $15M per year through 2025? And analysts were talking each B1G team getting $60-70M per year in the next deal? So if the B1G doesn’t grab ND, they get $70M and if they do, they get $72-75M?
ND is not getting anywhere near $30M on their own after 2025. And if the B1G wants to play hardball, they and the SEC lock-out schools not in their conference, AND they stop scheduling ND. No more ND vs Michigan or MSU, Purdue, NW, USC (or OSU like this year).
Not saying the B1G should do this, but ND has no leverage. Money to watch them play Navy, Army, BC, Clemson, Georgia Tech, VA Tech, awake Forest, UNC and then NO chance at the CFP is gonna be minimal.
Am I missing something?
Here a 2021 piece showing raw viewership #'s for 2015 thru 2019 for the 89 teams of the following: the Power 5 conferences, The AAC, The MWC, plus Army, BYU and ND.
BTW, this data seems to indicate nobody other than moms, dads, girlfriends, and a few New Jersey spray-tanners watch Rutger Football.
I can smell the axe body spray through my computer