How OSU's Recruiting Profile is Morphing Under Urban
We've been hearing a lot about how OSU's recruiting geography is changing under Urban, so thought I'd take a look to see how real that meme is. Often once a view becomes stated enough it becomes taken as fact even if not so, but in this case the data bears out a changing recruiting profile.
OSU will always be Ohio centric as Ohio is the one true powerhouse state in the north in terms of producing both depth of talent and elite talent. (Other schools in the Midwest cannot follow the same blueprint since they just don't have the same # of upper echelon guys in their state borders) But Tressel was known for "putting a f****** wall" up around the state borders, whereas Urban still wants the elite OH talent but is willing to let some secondary guys go (that Tressel still wanted) in lieu of chasing non OH elite talent.
Below are 2 tables:
- The first is the 3 most recent years Urban recruited (2013-2015). I don't know if they are done with 2015 but the class is pretty huge already.
- The second table is 3 years of Tressel+Fickell.
I chose these 3 years because they are the only 3 year period I could find of similar size classes to what Urban has been bringing in. A lot of Tressel's classes of the 2000s were 16-18ish in size. This would indicate to me some (ahem) "aggressive attrition" is going on in Urban's OSU whereas Tressel was more "player friendly" in retaining recruits through all 4-5 years in the program. It could also indicate Tressel redshirted more than Urban. There is certainly some combination of the two happening.
| Urban Classes | Total | OH | Not OH | "South" |
| 2013 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 11 |
| 2014 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 6 |
| 2015 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 7 |
| Average | 23.7 | 10.0 | 13.7 | 8.0 |
| 42.3% | 57.7% | 33.8% | ||
| Non Urban Class | Total | OH | Not OH | "South" |
| 2009 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 6 |
| 2010 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 5 |
| 2011 | 24 | 14 | 10 | 5 |
| Average | 22.7 | 12.3 | 10.3 | 5.3 |
| 54.4% | 45.6% | 23.5% |
Easy takeaways:
- Urban era shows about 40-45% of players are from in state. Tressel era 55%ish. A significant reduction.
- Urban is not surprisingly grabbing a good chunk of players from the "South" (SEC/southern ACC footprint). Whereas it was just under a quarter of the class on average in the Tressel/Fickell era, it's one third of a typical Urban class.
- Again the 2009-2011 class is not indicative of what an OSU class looked like in say 2004-2006; Tressel's classes were generally smaller so Urban is cycling kids thru his program much quicker - part of that might be less redshirts and part of that might be "aggressive attrition" that we see in parts of the SEC.
I would suggest a similar Michigan footprint to mimic the Meyer strategy, while accounting for less depth of talent in state, would be something along the lines of:
- 25% Michigan
- 20% OH/PA
- 55% non OH/PA Out of State with 33% of that coming from the "South"
This seems to fit well with our current staff's regional backgrounds and a secondary reason Durkin (and to a lesser degree Jackson and Fisch) are key.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:06 AM ^
Is PA to you really an "elite" state in the north to recruit?
January 16th, 2015 at 11:11 AM ^
January 16th, 2015 at 11:11 AM ^
January 16th, 2015 at 11:36 AM ^
January 16th, 2015 at 11:42 AM ^
MSU has been very active in draining kids out of PA during this down period for that program. I mean it's a wash for UM because that hurts PSU but helps MSU. And while Pitt is down, Narduzzi probably will focus a lot of effort in PA as he has been recruiting NJ/PA like a banshee the past half decade. Lots of pigs at the PA trough, including Urban.
Didn't Meyer grab PSU's ace recruiter last year as well? I thought I remembered that.
January 16th, 2015 at 12:15 PM ^
Larry Johnson, who holds the same position at OSU as Mattison does here.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:21 AM ^
PA is the second most prolific state in the traditional "Midwest" footprint. I hesitate to say Big 10 footprint because until 20 years ago it wasn't. But a town like Pittsburgh is basically Midwest in feel and culture. And Youngstown OH is I believe less than 100 miles away.
Then as you scoot through the northern states you have New Jersey and then a step down are Michigan and Illinois. You can follow the hyperlink in the OP to see some detail in terms of which states produce NFL talent. Now that is not the end all be all in judging a state's talent but it's a pretty solid marker.
Ohio is its own tier among the nothern states.
If you walk away with 3-4 guys out of OH and 2 out of PA in every class, along with 5 MI guys you should have a nice mix of players.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:19 AM ^
Absolutely PA is an elite football state to recruit from. Back in the Paleozic age when I recruited for Michigan (92-94) there were five states we targeted: California, Florida, Texas, Ohio & Pennsylvania (not in that order) for recruits. Today you can add Lousiana to that list but those states consistently churn out the most A+ talent for football.
What's interesting about the OP analysis is that it bears out what I predicted would happen when Urbs took over. OP is 100% correct that Tressel would take a 3 star (and sometimes 2) from a feeder school like Glenville or St Ed's to keep the door closed to Michigan and other schools when the 5 stars were available. "Fortress Ohio" was real and it was almost impossible to get kids out of here because the HS coaches knew Tressel seemingly made room for everybody good from Ohio. Meyer is far more likely to let the 3 star go to Kentucky, Cincinnati or a directional school rather than take him and will go after the higher profile recruits nationally. Actually in that respect he's employing a strategy not unlike John Cooper did when he was here.
That's changed under Meyer and the coaches down here know it. We need to take advantadge of the change under Harbaugh just as we did under Hoke. Say what you will about Brady as a coach, he was well-liked down here amoung the HS coaches and did VERY well pulling blue-chip players out of Ohio. My guess is that Harbaugh will do the same (or better) but the Alum96 is 100% correct in his analysis and conclusion.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:25 AM ^
Agree on these points. One additional change is Tressel never bothered with Michigan. I think Krenzel is the only guy I can remember from MI ever having any impact at OSU. He didn't care because as you said, those OH relationships were so important so why take the 7th best player out of MI when you can take the 17th out of OH. That is different under Urban - he is coming into Michigan's territory and grabbing at the top of a relatively limited pool of players.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:32 AM ^
One thing I'd like to see from Harbaugh is locking down the top talent in the state of UM. I know you can't base your entire roster from the state of MI but it'd at least be nice to see the top prospects heading to AA.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:37 AM ^
Jhonathan Hankins, Reid Fragel, and James Jackson(Just to name a few) say Hi!
Tressel's classes were a little more Ohio-centric, but I don't think the strategy has changed as much as it's being made out to be. I think Urban is still assuming the Ohio kids he wants are his, he may just have a slightly higher cut-off than Tressel did.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:37 AM ^
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January 16th, 2015 at 12:34 PM ^
He was the first guy I thought of. Dammit.
January 16th, 2015 at 1:02 PM ^
It makes sense for Urban. Take the great players from the rival's state. He helps him and hurts Michigan.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:51 AM ^
where i live our biggest school's are Bishop McDevit, Central Dauphin, Harrisburg and Cumberland Valley.. do you think they would be equal or better to a Brother Rice or Detroit Central Catholic? To me football recruiting is random and sporadic.
January 16th, 2015 at 12:45 PM ^
It's Detroit Catholic Central
January 16th, 2015 at 11:09 AM ^
will be a big focus of this staff as well
January 16th, 2015 at 11:10 AM ^
Look's like they're hitting Texas pretty hard as well.
January 16th, 2015 at 7:33 PM ^
January 16th, 2015 at 11:10 AM ^
I think California recruiting is going to be big for Michigan in the Harbaugh era. He was out there for a long time and I'm assuming that he kept all of his connections.
We should be able to make plays for kids that would otherwise go to Stanford, USC, etc. If I was recruiting southern/western kids for Michigan, I would use the cold weather as a positive.
How well does playing only when it's sunny and 75 prepare you for an NFL stint in Buffalo or Green Bay?
January 16th, 2015 at 11:14 AM ^
The issue is the general tendency of elite prospects leaving Cali is very few to nil (especially to Michigan).. Hope that changes but I look ACC/SEC area and NJ for prospects...
January 16th, 2015 at 11:43 AM ^
I agree. The New Jersey to North Carolina Atlantic seaboard area isn't as prolific as the Deep South, Texa, or California, but it offers a couple of advantages for Michigan wanting to focus there in my opinion.
1. Relatively close
2. No dominant programs putting up a fence in the area
The problem is I guarantee every other coach sees this, as well so Michigan is still going to have to work for these guys, but I think it's easier than trying to pull kids out of the LA-MS-AL-GA gravitational pull or out of Big 12 dominated Texas and PAC-12 dominated California.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:58 AM ^
(Yes, yes, I know you said general tendency. Couldn't help it.)
January 16th, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^
Those recruits know Harbaugh though. They watched the 49ers and the Cardinal. They see what he did with those teams probably better than most areas of the country. That should help.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:30 AM ^
One of the top couple coaches in America is in Ann Arbor with an amazing staff who can prepare you for the NFL is about all the top candidates should need to get their attention. If the cold is brought up, all they need tp do is say that Harbaugh was in Cali and had his pick of where he would go and chose Michigan. If you come here you will understand why.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:37 AM ^
To a small degree I would agree. We have done very little on the West coast over the years and that may jump from very little to little. I would not expect any big jump, as the guy below you responded, you just don't see a ton of guys move from the west coast to northern climates unless they are lower rated and hence must to get a scholarship.
The one place I do agree is at QB as there are only so many high profile spots to land on the West coast as a QB if you want to start, and CA produces a bevy of high level HS QBs.
If we get more than 3 players in any class out of the west coast I'd be surprised.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:11 AM ^
Solid analysis. Probably deserves to be a diary.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:12 AM ^
I do not know if you consider DMV (DC/Md/VA) to be part of the north or south but those are elite states.. NJ has been blowing up (Peppers, M. Fitzpatrick, Kareem Walker, Rashan Gary, etc. to name a few)
January 16th, 2015 at 11:16 AM ^
are north and VA is south. Didn't learn that until I moved here though.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:24 AM ^
That is why I wrote that because some people would say differently... My brother lives in Maryland and talk to many fans about it... Your statement definitely true but many "experts" would always bunch the areas as one for recruiting...
January 16th, 2015 at 11:32 AM ^
I think there were only 2 MD kids in the classes; 1 for Urban 1 for Tressel (from memory) - I kept those in the north. I put all the VA kids in the south.
A lot of the "non south" out of state guys in OH clases are NJ/PA/IL - no surprises.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:12 AM ^
Don't care how my opponent is recruiting, I care how Michigan will recruit. I'm so sick of hearing about osu
January 16th, 2015 at 11:15 AM ^
We are competing against Ohio with many recruits.. That has been always the issue... Kareem Walker was one of those examples... So knowing how they go could indicate many things as well for the staff.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:19 AM ^
Then stop reading & posting in OSU threads.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:24 AM ^
about how our main rival is recruiting. Its a big part of understanding them and hopefully will lead to victories over them. However, your point not withstanding....fuck Urban Meyer.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:14 AM ^
Don't forget about....
January 16th, 2015 at 11:34 AM ^
Forget North Dakota. Montana is where the NFL talent is.
No, seriously.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:19 AM ^
certainly prioritize Michigan players, Ohio and neighboring states, but they will also offer from coast to coast based on need and fit, I I expect a pretty diverse future in those regards.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:23 AM ^
Urban Meyer (and James Franklin and Butch Jones, among others) got a head start on Jim Harbaugh and his staff yesterday with visits to some of the northern New Jersey football powers, including Jabrill Peppers' school, Paramus Catholic. LINK
I'd hope that Jim Harbaugh (and maybe former New York Giants' first round draft choice Tyrone Wheatley) have visits to northern New Jersey schools planned before National Signing Day.
.. 
January 16th, 2015 at 11:27 AM ^
I happen to go to some of the games (I live in NJ)... The talent is getting better each year in this state... Ironic, that how close these schools are to NYC... Well, not a lot of talent in NYC... They talk about less room but that is not always the case when you consider LI don't produce much.. The best NY prospects I would think would be in western NY (Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse)...
January 16th, 2015 at 11:38 AM ^
The North Jersey parochial powers are overflowing with talent. Don Bosco, St. Joseph's, DePaul, Paramus Catholic, Bergen Catholic and St. Peter's should be visited regularly by any coach worth his salt. If Flood locked those schools up Rutgers would be an annual power. Of course, he's not that great a coach and the bossed ar RU are satisfied with being just ok so the welcome signs are out in NJ.
January 16th, 2015 at 12:53 PM ^
Occasionally, a great college football player emerges from Long Island (Hello, Jim Brown and Vinny Testaverde) or western New York (Hello, Ernie Davis and Mike Hart), but those regions might be better left to recruiting by Michigan's lacrosse coaching staff.
As jerseyblue says, the northern New Jersey high school football powers now are concentrated among the private Catholic schools (the four Bergen County schools, Don Bosco Prep, Bergen Catholic, St. Joseph Regional of Montvale and Paramus Catholic, plus De Paul Catholic, St. Peter's Prep and Delbarton School all within a fairly short drive from Bergen County.)
The star players at those schools most likely will get offers from most of the top FBS schools, and several of them will go to schools closer to home like Penn State, Boston College, Rutgers and Maryland. The lesser rated players go to FCS schools like Villanova, Fordham, Holy Cross, Georgetown, Delaware, Albany and the Ivy League, Patriot League and Colonial Association schools.
Weather permitting, the Michigan private plane could leave Ann Arbor at around 6:00 AM, land at Teterboro Airport in northern New Jersey at around 7:15, and then have the football coaches getting into town cars and heading out to visit all of those schools in one day.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:23 AM ^
Wait, I read the whole recipe for success and I didn't see anything about collecting underpants. I'm guessing it's just presumed then right? Otherwise what are we doing here?
January 16th, 2015 at 11:25 AM ^
The Urban Meyer blueprint is the ideal plan for success. If Harbaugh can build his teams with national blue chip talent outside of the midwest consistently, he could redshirt much less while getting guys to the league quickly.
The first few years are crucial to get the ball rolling. With a couple top five classes under his belt, he should be able to turn the program into an NFL factory much like the USC, Texas, and Florida teams of the early to mid 2000's. Though the teams I mentioned are in a talent-rich hotbed, Urban has shown recruiting on par with any top level school can be done in the midwest. We surely have the resources and coaches now to do so.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:26 AM ^
Your conclusion about Urban focusing 10-15% less on Ohio than Tressel is not based on an unequivocal interpretation of the numbers.
I'm not talking about statistical significance but the fact that you admit Urban is signing much larger classes than Tressel did. As such, unless you want to separately argue that the state of Ohio is producing significantly fewer top recruits now than a decade ago, it would make more sense to provide the absolute numbers.
Based on sum-total rather than percent, I suspect Meyer and Tressel pulled equivalent numbers from in-state.
Going quickly off the values you provide:
(Ohioan recruiting rate) x (Avg class size**) = Average number of Ohioans per class
Meyer: 0.4 x 23.5 = 9.4
Tressel: .55 x 17 = 9.35
**[23-24 for Meyer; 16-18 for Tressel]
This doesn't speak to whether Ohioans are similarly dense on the Meyer roster as the Tressel rosters because, as you speculate, Meyer actually is redshirting way less than Tressel, though I'm not sure whether that is clearing Ohioans from the roster at a lesser, equal, or greater rate than non-Ohioans. That would be a part of the analysis of greater interest.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:35 AM ^
and would take a lot more research, is to find out what percentage of offers went out to Ohioans vs the other states of interest. If the offers were being accepted earlier by those other than Ohioans, it doesn't necessarily indicate that he's recruiting Ohio less or more than other states.
January 16th, 2015 at 11:29 AM ^
January 16th, 2015 at 11:35 AM ^
I'd actually be interested in seeing a break down of the elite programs and see how many of the kids that have a year of eligibilty left actually get that 5th year. If you have a guy that has been in the program for 4 years and has contributed little on the game field, do you keep them on for a 5th year? If they are not granted a 5th year on the team, do they have to foot the bill for the 5th year if they have not graduated....if so it makes sense to have some sort of academic grant system set up for them if that is within the rules.
January 16th, 2015 at 12:11 PM ^
I don't get why it matters.
I don't care if Mike Hart is from upstate New York, California, Texas, Michigan, or Alaska - I want him playing football at Michigan.