Historic Year for Big 10 East Recruiting
Yesterday there was a post with a graphic showing the steep divide between Big 10 East vs West recruiting. It's extremely lopsided in favor of the East. What wasn't mentioned or discussed to my knowledge was just how GOOD Big 10 East recruiting was (so far) this 2022 cycle. All 7 schools in the top 30 nationally and 3 top ten as of now. For some context, here is a list of each school with their ranking for this year followed by their last 5 cycle rankings (2021 going back to 2017).
OSU - 4 (2, 5, 14, 5, 2, 2)
PSU - 6 (21, 15, 12, 6, 15)
UM - 9 (13, 10, 8, 22, 5)
IU - 20 (54, 57, 36, 50, 62)
MSU - 21 (46, 44, 33, 31, 36)
Rutgers - 27 (39, 60, 65, 56, 42)
Maryland - 28 (18, 31, 47, 28, 18)
My takeaways:
OSU is OSU. Michigan has settled into a nice sweet spot right around top 10 the last 4 years. PSU rebounded this year. Indiana? Make fun of Tucker all you want, but he has done a really good job so far and this year's class was MSU's second highest ranked class of the Internet era. Maryland's on field production does not match its level of recruiting. Lastly, I think coaching quality and stability is at a very high level in the East and played a large factor in the recruiting success for 2022. Winning the East isn't going to get any easier moving forward, but I like what Michigan is building.
Thoughts?
December 16th, 2021 at 10:14 AM ^
Beat Georgia.
December 16th, 2021 at 10:16 AM ^
B1G East avg. ranking as of now: 16.3
SEC West avg. ranking as of now: 15.3
Progress!
I do think perhaps some coaching stability in the B1G might help them...as well as good coaches. (edit: wrote that before I read the entire OP post... so obviously, I agree with him)
December 16th, 2021 at 11:22 AM ^
The arithmetic average is misleading at times and papers over a lot of problems. One group can have a wide dispersion in ranking and the other group could be tightly bunched around the mean.
While B1G East and SEC West seem to be close enough, they both have one perennially (relatively) great, one-two good performers, and a bunch of "Who Dats" every year.
Interesting observation nonetheless.
December 16th, 2021 at 2:12 PM ^
This also ignores that there is often a huge disparity between the elite recruiting teams in the top 4 and ones in the bottom half of the top 10.
2022 Recruiting Class
SEC West teams have 9 Five Stars and 61 Four Stars
SEC East teams have 8 Five Stars and 44 Four Stars
Big East teams have 4 Five Stars and 57 Four Stars
BigTen West teams have 0 Five Stars and 11 Four Stars
The BigTen East is certainly competitive with the SEC in recruiting. The problem is that the BigTen West is just a step above the MAC in recruiting this year.
December 16th, 2021 at 3:58 PM ^
Word Up.
December 16th, 2021 at 10:17 AM ^
B1G East >>> SEC West. Their ranking is significantly biased with Bama, LSU, A&M, and Old Miss being much better than the rest of the division. We rule top to bottom.
December 16th, 2021 at 11:46 AM ^
Interesting take but all SEC West teams are ranking inside the top 25 on the 24/7 composite team rankings: https://247sports.com/Season/2022-Football/CompositeTeamRankings/
The three teams you did not mention: Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Auburn all out recruited Ole Miss who finished last in the division in 24th place.
December 16th, 2021 at 12:23 PM ^
Still haven't figured out why A&M is signing such a good class. Leftover mojo from last year's 1-loss season? Because otherwise this is a perennial 3-5 loss program
December 16th, 2021 at 4:26 PM ^
Honestly, they surprised the most by killing it out of state They got two five-star defensive linemen and from out of state and a number of other guys from all over as well. They also nabbed an excellent 5-star receiver from in-state as well. They then filled out rest of the class with four-stars from Texas in a year when UT is down.
December 16th, 2021 at 10:24 AM ^
MSU elite talent came mostly from instate which is par for the course for MSU.
MSU has had strong classes before. They haven’t been able to follow them up though. Can Tucker? That is the question going forward.
December 16th, 2021 at 10:55 AM ^
I know a lot of folks here think Tucker isn't that great of a coach, but he's done really well so far. I don't think he'll be able to have Dantonio's level of success, but only because Michigan is back on top.
I think he'll be a consistent thorn in our side and make beating MSU 75% of the time difficult.
That said, he's overpaid and I don't think they will win the B1G East with him.
December 16th, 2021 at 11:20 AM ^
He also has Tom Wilcher and his deep connections to Detroit. That undoubtedly has something to do with their ability to snag so many of the top 10 kids from in state
December 16th, 2021 at 11:20 AM ^
double post :-(
December 16th, 2021 at 11:21 AM ^
Well, beating him 75% of the time now means six in a row, so yes I'd say the work's cut out.
I'll also be surprised if he's actually there long enough for Michigan to even have a chance of doing that lol.
December 16th, 2021 at 11:43 AM ^
I agree that Tucker may turn out to be a pretty good head coach. As for overpaying, that's how middling programs like these can keep a good coach. And if he puts just 5k more seats in the stands, the concessions alone will pay for it. Economically, college coaches are paid far less than their actual value, which is why their salaries are going up so fast.
December 16th, 2021 at 2:07 PM ^
Michigan State isn't overpaying for Tucker. Matt Ishbia and some guy named Steve St. Andre are footing a big percentage of that bill.
December 16th, 2021 at 11:43 AM ^
I agree that Tucker may turn out to be a pretty good head coach. As for overpaying, that's how middling programs like these can keep a good coach. And if he puts just 5k more seats in the stands, the concessions alone will pay for it. Economically, college coaches are paid far less than their actual value, which is why their salaries are going up so fast.
December 16th, 2021 at 1:54 PM ^
Say what? MSU doesn't have to fill one more seat to pay for for it. Billionaire boosters are footing the bill.
As for a coaches "actual value..." If you mean value is determined by what the market will bear well...it's not an appropriate calculation if the the labor isn't paid anything and all this excess money is laying around as a result. Subsidized value is the correct term.
December 16th, 2021 at 12:01 PM ^
The ten wins look nice for Tucker, sure, but he's had a losing record every other year he's been a head coach. His team only scored nine more points than they gave up this year in conference. And Sparty was 35th in the advanced metrics. I think they got some friendly "bounces" this year. We'll see if it's an aberration or not.
December 16th, 2021 at 12:22 PM ^
His first team was awful and his second team had the worst passing defense in the nation. KWIII is the main reason his seat isn't warm right now.
December 16th, 2021 at 2:12 PM ^
You're not wrong, but the program he inherited was basically a MAC team in terms of talent and athleticism except for 5 or 6 kids. He has completely reshaped the roster in two seasons. That doesn't mean he is a good game-day coach, but he seems effective at running a program in this era.
December 16th, 2021 at 1:06 PM ^
i think most think that tucker is still unproven and shocked he got 95 mil on such a short resume.
December 16th, 2021 at 10:28 AM ^
Who's making fun of Tucker? He's making me nervous with his competence.
December 16th, 2021 at 10:33 AM ^
I can see making jokes about his contract but that's about it.
December 16th, 2021 at 10:39 AM ^
Several people made jokes about MSU finishing 5th in Big 10 East recruiting. Good natured and all, but perhaps misguided.
December 16th, 2021 at 11:34 AM ^
You can't give the Sparties anything. Harbaugh comes in 2015, following a 5-7 Hoke debacle of a season and gives us a ten win season and it was all "third best coach in the division". But Tucker does something similar and it's "Tuck comin" and a $95,000,000 payday and WATCH OUT B1G!!!!
So now he coaches the third best team in his division, has the fifth best incoming class in the division, the worst pass defense in the FBS, got waxed in epic fashion by OSU and lost by two scores to Purdue just as his team was looking like a legit contender in the division. LOL. Fuck that loser.
December 16th, 2021 at 11:49 AM ^
I might have a man crush. Preach!
December 16th, 2021 at 12:07 PM ^
Golden Section throws some even hotter flame below
December 16th, 2021 at 12:09 PM ^
Jury is still out on Tucker. Quite a few close wins this year and big losses this year. Let us see how he does next year before we get nervous.
December 16th, 2021 at 3:41 PM ^
All of that with a Heisman contender he lucked into in the transfer portal too.
December 16th, 2021 at 1:22 PM ^
His shitty 1st year team beat an even shittier Michigan team during the covid year. I don't even think about that game much as some sort of indicator of Tuck's competence.
His 2nd year team required a Heisman-worthy performance, ref shenanigans, and a free 4th quarter fumble recovery to barely squeek by Michigan at home.
I know the record is 0-2, but there's nothing out of those 2 games that truly "scares" me about MSU, other than that they will likely at least be a competent above-average team with Tuck. Jury is still out on whether Tuck can make them a perennial serious contender like his new contract seems to indicate.
December 16th, 2021 at 1:30 PM ^
Interesting. I saw many incompetent in-game decisions from him this year. Many led to the team getting bailed out in some other way to avoid an L.
Had a great game plan against OSU to go down 49-0 at the half and I'm sure he wanted to be down 16 to us going into Q4. We let them off the hook.
December 16th, 2021 at 10:33 AM ^
Make fun of Tucker all you want
Will do!
December 16th, 2021 at 11:19 AM ^
MSU had one of the luckiest years in recent memory. it started when Tucker won the portal lottery with Walker.
They were absolutely bullied by Nebraska, outgained by 200 yards, had 12 yards in the second half and zero 1st downs - how do you win that game?
Even lowly Indiana manhandled them. They scored 1 offensive touchdown. A bizarre pic 6, where the QB must have thought he was a Hoosier because there was no receiver in sight made the difference.
Against UM they were literally spotted 7 points by the refs.
Purdue and OSU exposed them for who they are. The Buckeyes, at one point, averaged a touchdown every 5 plays. Stroud was 28-30 for 400 yards in a half. No defensive may have been better.
They had the very worst pass defensive in college football.
Lets see how they do without KWIII - Sorry not sold.
December 16th, 2021 at 11:25 AM ^
They definitely had some historic luck this year, but that doesn't seem to be anomalous for them. Besides the 3-9 season I don't remember them having bad luck very often.
December 16th, 2021 at 10:34 AM ^
My thoughts are that it is very funny that Indiana beat MSU by one spot and, for now, kept them out of the top 20. Sparty noooo!!!
December 16th, 2021 at 10:39 AM ^
Just adds to how lopsided the divisions are and the conference is only hurting itself. If the coaching situations remain stable, the conference will find itself with title games where 2 loss East teams are dispatching one loss West teams to the detriment of playoff berths, (even at the bottom end of an expanded pool), while the SEC gets those extra spots.
The landscape has changed enough that it may be time to start considering, not just realignment, but letting go of the notion of protected rivalries which just further imbalance schedule strengths.
December 16th, 2021 at 10:43 AM ^
I think doing away with divisions and accepting schedule imbalances could eventually be on the table but not doing away with protected rivalries.
December 16th, 2021 at 10:41 AM ^
I’m just pissed we’re only 0.15 points behind UNC on the 247 list for 8th place. What can we do to get a highly ranked UNC kid to leave? Anyone feel like sending threatening emails and voice messages to a teenager? Let’s get creative here, people!
December 16th, 2021 at 10:58 AM ^
Isn't there one final rankings update by the major sites in February? Our guys always seem to rise at the end
December 16th, 2021 at 11:23 AM ^
Landing Josh Conerly Jr. outta do it.
December 16th, 2021 at 10:47 AM ^
For comparison, here is the BIG West:
Iowa - 26
Purdue - 39
Minnesota - 43
Wisconsin - 44
Illinois - 45
Northwestern - 47
Nebraska - 58 (Looks like being the best 3-9 team in the history of ever doesn't resonate well with recruits these days.)
December 16th, 2021 at 11:25 AM ^
Wisconsin has a great campus. They've had success for forever. It's not too far from Milwaukee and Chicago. I really don't know why their recruiting sucks so bad most years
December 16th, 2021 at 12:44 PM ^
Shows how great Wisconsin is at developing players. One of Harbaugh's best moves was hiring their S&C coach.
December 16th, 2021 at 12:25 PM ^
Nebraska never should've left the big 12. Yeah, you're rich now but you also permanently damaged your football program which is pretty much all Nebraska has
December 16th, 2021 at 1:49 PM ^
I think the bigger problem was firing Bo Pelini. There is no particular reason why they can't be a solid Big Ten West program, at least. Frost just doesn't look like the right guy for the job.
December 17th, 2021 at 5:43 AM ^
They also lost all 9 games by one score. Go 4-5/5-4 in those and you’re a 7-8 win team. Not great by any means, but a solid season and something to potentially build on.
I generally find the “best 3-9 team in the country” thing to be pretty humorous, but they really weren’t as bad as their record. Their season could have gone very different.
December 17th, 2021 at 12:24 PM ^
Frost is 5-20 in one-score games. This is who he is. 2021 was no big exception.
December 17th, 2021 at 1:30 PM ^
5-11 prior to this year is significantly better than the 0-9 he went this season. This season was still a pretty damn big exception.