Harbaugh Team Performance the Week Before Ohio State Games
On the podcast this week, Brian mentioned he figured Michigan wouldn’t beat Maryland quite as badly as every other team we’ve played this year since it’s the week before OSU and we never do super well the week before OSU. I think this is probably true historically, but I wanted to get a feel for how we usually do the week before OSU under Harbaugh. The results:
We only have 1 loss the week before OSU since 2015 for a 6-1 record. That game was 2017 @ Wisconsin and was also the only game we weren’t favored in.
We have covered the spread 3 times and failed to cover 4 times. Pretty random.
We actually usually do better on the road than at home. Playing at home, we’ve never covered under Harbaugh and failed to cover the spread by an average of 15 points. On the road, we’ve covered 3/4 times.
Last year’s Illinois game actually wasn’t the furthest we’ve been from covering the spread in these games. That would be 2018 Indiana, when we were favored by 28 and won 31-20. I legitimately have no memory of this game so I have no further comment.
In general, our average difference from the spread (whether covering or failing to cover) was 14.5 points and the closest we got to the spread was 7.5 points, so we have consistently either underperformed OR overperformed by at least a touchdown. I think that makes sense: the team will either be hyped up to play OSU and beat up on the lesser opponent or will be too focused on the game the next week and play particularly poorly.
Our average margin of victory in these games, removing the one loss, is about 17 points. Last year’s Illinois game was the only game that had a margin of victory of less than 10 points. This probably says more about the quality of opponent than anything.
I’ve attached the table so you can glean any info from it that’d you’d like. What does all this mean? Probably nothing at all! Go Blue.
November 14th, 2023 at 9:49 AM ^
That Illinois game.. major sweat.. Moody ice ice baby.
November 14th, 2023 at 9:57 AM ^
Obligatory:
November 14th, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^
That 4th quarter had my stomach in knots. I was watching it on my phone while watching my sons indoor soccer game. I was a mess.
November 14th, 2023 at 11:13 AM ^
I was at that game. It was cold.
November 14th, 2023 at 11:17 AM ^
But we warmed up after that save on fourth down by, "Mr. Gash!"
November 14th, 2023 at 11:28 AM ^
That Illinois game...OSU and Rutgers had already shared our signs with Illinois.
November 14th, 2023 at 9:49 AM ^
Most meaningful bit of data? 2 years ago we played at Maryland the week before OSU, were favored by 16 and won by 41, then went on the next week to win the game that still serves as my computer wallpaper. Let's just go ahead and do that again.
Michigan's currently -19, so I feel good about history repeating itself.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:55 AM ^
I believe it opened up at 21 and its dropped to 19. I dont like that.
November 14th, 2023 at 1:31 PM ^
Meh. I hit the over and didn't really blink at that number. I am no expert bettor, however.
November 14th, 2023 at 12:58 PM ^
Yeahhhhh...I dont see Maryland putting up much here.
Hopefully this game is iced with 10 minutes to go in third and starters our resting on the bench
November 14th, 2023 at 9:51 AM ^
Beat OSU and we make the CFP
I believe that if we beat Maryland but lose to OSU then they will keep us out because of the Marine.
November 14th, 2023 at 9:55 AM ^
If Michigan were to lose to OSU, they would deserve to be out, not because of the Marine. The only quality win would be PSU. Not great, Bob.
November 14th, 2023 at 9:58 AM ^
The only path is beating OSU. Maryland is almost irrelevant at this point. I mean that from a CFP perspective. Beat OSU and win the BIG ten championship game and they are in.
Obviously beating Maryland is important. 1000th win, momentum, Michigan v. Everybody, etc....
November 14th, 2023 at 10:33 AM ^
If Michigan loses to Maryland and wins the Big Ten, they aren't making the playoffs, unless they get a lot of help. A loss to Maryland would easily be the worst loss of the one loss teams competing for a spot in the playoffs.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:47 AM ^
I dunno. Committee has said in the past wins are more important than losses.
November 14th, 2023 at 11:05 AM ^
I agree with this. If we lost to OSU next year, but beat the valley of death that is our schedule we'd totally deserve to be in the play off (if it were still 4 teams). This year we've beat some o.k. teams, but nothing to write home about other than PSU.
The same holds true for OSU. Their big wins are ND and PSU. ND is Rutgers+. A one loss OSU doesn't get in over a one loss Alabama or Texas. I could see them getting in over Oregon. No idea who Power Rankings Guru is, but for games played to date
1 Purdue (poor Purdue)
2. Alabama
8 Texas
47 OSU
52 Oregon
60 Georgia
63 Michigan
I couldn't find one that has games played to date plus the games remaining. There are strength of schedules from before the season, but those don't mean a whole lot.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:02 AM ^
I believe that if we beat Maryland but lose to OSU then they will keep us out because of the Marine.
Signgate is irrelevant. If we lose to OSU, they'd keep us out because of our shitty schedule. We'd have beaten PSU, and then our next best win is...UNLV? Assuming a win over Maryland, we'd only have four wins over teams above .500 (UNLV, Rutgers(!), PSU and Maryland). I honestly think we'd be behind every other 1-loss team, and it's hard to argue otherwise. Really our only hope of getting in with a loss to OSU would be having only three P5 teams with zero or one losses, and even then, I could potentially still see us behind a two loss Bama, or a two-loss Big XII or Pac 12 champion...
November 14th, 2023 at 10:13 AM ^
But we have 5 wins over teams above .500. Not 4. You forgot Bowling Green, sitting at 6-4 with a win themselves over a Power 5 team.
I don't disagree with the rest of your post, but our schedule is not nearly as bad as the national narrative suggests.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:27 AM ^
But it's not good enough to get into the CFP.
Win and advance.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:41 AM ^
SP+ rankings of our opponents (out of 133 teams):
East Carolina: 112
UNLV: 63
Bowling Green: 99
Rutgers: 52
Nebraska: 57
Minnesota: 55
Indiana: 94
Staee: 86
Purdue: 85
Penn State: 5
Maryland: 35
Ohio State: 3
We play 3 teams in the top 1/3 of the SP+ rankings, and 2 of them we haven't played yet. Granted, SP+ is only one measure of a team's quality. Still, I don't know how you can possibly think the schedule is anything but 100% bad as advertised. It doesn't mean Michigan isn't good, but it does mean we've only beaten one team who isn't a complete hunk of garbage. Win these last two games and it won't matter. Just win, baby!
November 14th, 2023 at 11:08 AM ^
Shadow,
Normally, I am right on board with your takes, but it's been made clear here that our schedule is pretty comparable to the other top/elite teams.
That being said, if we lose one of our last two regular season games, I don't think we make it.
If we lose to OSU, we don't make the conference championship.
If we lose to Maryland, that's a bad loss.
Time to win out.
November 14th, 2023 at 12:35 PM ^
I agree that beating OSU is the quality win we need.... and this is more important than sign gate. But I think sign gate does hurt us.
This year is different than most. This would be a great year to have the expanded playoff because there are so many good teams. For sure a very deserving 1 loss team will be held out this year.... maybe even a 1 loss conference champ if the rest of season plays out in a particular way.
November 14th, 2023 at 5:20 PM ^
Don't worry. Warde it's on the CFP committee and will stick up for Michigan. Just like he always does.
November 14th, 2023 at 9:56 AM ^
"[T]he team will either be hyped up to play OSU and beat up on the lesser opponent or will be too focused on the game the next week and play particularly poorly."
What we're working on, guys we're protecting/getting reps, what we're playing down, etc. in anticipation of OSU, how much attention we think that the opponent in front of us requires (a favored Wisconsin). . . all these likely carry more weight than how hyped up we are.
November 14th, 2023 at 9:59 AM ^
CONTEXT matters. Illinois was a good defensive team, made better by the OSU and Rutgers coaching staffs.
Indiana is also usually a good defensive team, and Tom Allen vs. Josh Gattis or Pep Hamilton is just unfair.
2017 had us at our most offensively inept.
2015 Frames was somehow MORE Frames than 2023 Frames.
The only BAD team on that list, Maryland in 2021, we lit on fire.
I expect a repeat. Maryland is going to throw a million passes, and our DL rotation will eat them for lunch.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:03 AM ^
More context: Corum was running all over Illinois when he got hurt. If he'd been healthy the whole way we'd have probably won comfortably.
As it was, we played the second half without either of our top two backs, not to mention several other starters that we chose to rest.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:20 AM ^
We also were missing Keegan, Morris, and Schoonmaker (notice that no one is pointing out that Illinois had our signs, because we're not a soft, whiny fanbase).
November 14th, 2023 at 10:45 AM ^
I suspect we're going to run a pretty vanilla, run-heavy offense against MD.
MD's rush defense isn't terrible statistically—about 120 yds and game/3.4 yds/carry, which puts it in the upper half of the nation's programs.
The 3rd and 4th best rush defense teams in the country by yds allowed per game are Nebraska and PSU, who both allow a bit less than 80 yds per game on the ground. Michigan ran for 250 against Nebraska and 230 against PSU.
November 14th, 2023 at 12:06 PM ^
Yep, the way you screw your season now is JJ getting hurt. I am guessing it'll be a little like Purdue where JJ keeps are gonna be off and we'll just take what we can get. Since it's Maryland, I think we'll still cover
November 14th, 2023 at 10:00 AM ^
Our two worst performances (2017 Wisc and 2022 Illinois) featured major injuries - Peters was knocked out of the UW game and Corum out of Illinois. 2018 IU also was noted for Winovich's injury. Let's get out of this unscathed.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:06 AM ^
It always feels like the week before the Ohio State game we get 1 injury that is a big deal. Knock on wood we don't have that this week.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:19 AM ^
Overlooked last season was the injury to Morris late in a blow out over Nebraska if I remember correctly. He was not the same the rest of the year and missed the Illinois game and most if not all the OSU game. Here is to a healthy boring win on Saturday!
November 14th, 2023 at 11:01 AM ^
I think we see a bit more of Mullings and Hall saturday with Corum and Edwards smiling on the sideline in the 3rd quarter, along with JJ. That would be the best scenario.
November 14th, 2023 at 1:29 PM ^
Would love to see Mullings/Edwards as the primary backs in this game. Edwards is getting better with every touch, and the reps will be good for him. We want Corum healthy, especially now that he's approaching pre-injury Death Star Corum. Of course, the coaches know what's best and I'll feel good about whatever they decide to do.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:00 AM ^
I would like to see JJ and the receivers (including TEs and RBs) unleashed against Maryland just to shut up some of the idiots who think Michigan is a one dimensional running team only.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:11 AM ^
Jeeze, do people seriously still think that in 2023? Is it just because of the game against Penn State this year?
November 14th, 2023 at 10:13 AM ^
Anyone who says that either knows nothing about football and/or only reads box scores. So their opinions mean very little to me.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:24 AM ^
we are a winning dimensional team!
November 14th, 2023 at 11:49 AM ^
We are a WON dimensional team.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:04 AM ^
Maryland is not a good football team, we will run a vanilla offense and still put up 35+ points. Our defense will have Taulia making poor decisions, he will likely throw a pick or two.
November 14th, 2023 at 1:40 PM ^
See, now that you wrote that, if M doesn't put up 35+ I'ma feel bad.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:04 AM ^
I remember that 2018 Indiana game, and I still get sick to my stomach whenever I think about it. We spent that whole season kicking every ass in front of us, and were actually the favorite against OSU.
Then Indiana showed us exactly how OSU was going to beat us the next week like they were the Nostradamus of crossing routes.
Never mention that game again.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:07 AM ^
I still call that the "see your death game"
November 14th, 2023 at 10:20 AM ^
Maryland missed a lay up two point conversion that week also that would have put Michigan in the title game.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:32 AM ^
I remember a lot of posters saying they cheered for OSU in that game, because they wanted Michigan to "earn" the title in Columbus. They were nuts.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:44 AM ^
You’ve forgotten the Indiana jibrone out to injure Rashan, Chase, etc. as well.
November 14th, 2023 at 1:41 PM ^
I actually did forget that. Anyone have pics/vids/gifs/jifs/skippys of that?
November 14th, 2023 at 10:09 AM ^
Just win and stay healthy.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:12 AM ^
This is win 1,000. You can throw all of those metrics out the window. Michigan by a million.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:13 AM ^
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