LewisBullox

May 7th, 2020 at 4:36 PM ^

I'm going to hijack your first comment to include the actual plan from michigan.gov that looks very reasonable and well thought out to me.

https://www.michigan.gov/documents/coronavirus/MI_Safe_Start_Plan_5.7.20_689873_7.pdf

This sort of transparency in planning and reasoning is what I have hoping for and think has been lacking. I'm not sure if other states have released something like this, but I have not seen it. Obviously the Trump admin has not.

There will still be things people can question or discuss, but at least it's a logical framework for the path forward and should help mollify concerns of arbitrary restrictions.

LewisBullox

May 7th, 2020 at 4:49 PM ^

Ah, I hadn't seen that. Pretty vague. I did see today that the Trump admin rejected the CDC's plan for being too prescriptive.

Regardless, Whitmer's is more detailed in both distinctions between different phases and in what businesses can open, in what capacity, social distancing, etc. And the first detailed plan I have seen for Michigan.

Mitch Cumstein

May 7th, 2020 at 5:06 PM ^

The MI plan looks reasonable to me. I would dispute a few of the bullets being in certain stages, but overall rational. What bothers me is the lack of specifics? For example, what stage are we in now and why? To move to the next stage, what are the quantitative metrics we need to hit for opening of which bullets? Without that, what good is the plan? One could just say that we don’t have enough testing or contact tracing forever and never get to stage 5...

Justibro

May 7th, 2020 at 6:57 PM ^

From just reading the outline we are clearly progressing, if not already solidly, into stage 3. Our deaths are not clearly declining so we aren't in stage 4. Once they do, we are clearly progressing into stage 4. For stage 5 it's hard to put a finite number to that, so that won't happen because its a fluid situation. Things change daily, over specifics cause more negatives than positives. 

joeyb

May 8th, 2020 at 9:53 AM ^

I believe that we just moved into stage 3. I, too, am a bit frustrated without quantitative measures because when people complain, it's easy to use those to refute any assertions. It's a bit harder when they say, "Well, clearly all of the metrics have been decreasing for the last week" because we don't know how the state has defined "clearly", e.g. is a week long enough?

However, I would not release specific rules because then it is difficult to change them in reaction to new information without being accused of moving the goalposts. Honestly, I think that we're going to wait to see how we do with these lessened restrictions for the next month or so. Part of the problem is that the progression is based on adherence to the rules and social distancing. If businesses try to take advantage of a lack of monitoring or people decide that they've had enough by Memorial Day and have huge gatherings, we could see some resurgence by June. If we don't, then we're probably fine to loosen standards again. If you put definitive quantitative rules in place, then waiting to see how people react to new rules isn't feasible.

In reply to by Sparty Doesn't Know

LewisBullox

May 7th, 2020 at 7:46 PM ^

Try reading both of them. And then tell me how I'm wrong without referring to communist overlords, whoever the hell those are.

LewisBullox

May 7th, 2020 at 7:23 PM ^

I said I was incorrect about that. The White House "plan" is also a joke in comparison to this one and doesn't mesh with what the President tells people via Twitter or pressers.

Everything else I said still stands, which was the real point of the comment, and hasn't been refuted. But I'm sure it triggered some snowflake Trump supporters.

LewisBullox

May 7th, 2020 at 8:48 PM ^

No, I have not taken a purely pro-Whitmer approach here or anywhere. Far from it going back to the unnecessary restrictions on outdoor activities. But at least here is a real framework. I think we are already in Phase 3 but I guess she still has restrictions based off Phase 2. It's just good to know we aren't doing things off the cuff like the White House.

So yeah, it's unrelated that I think Trump has done an absolutely pathetic job and should have made the point without including the bit about Trump, so I didn't derail the conversation.

I should have realized someone on his team was smart enough to write up a half-assed plan and put it online. Of course, no one can argue that he has had any consistent approach to covid. Remember Easter?

UcheWallyWally

May 8th, 2020 at 9:51 AM ^

I think if we look back both sides keep riddling themselves in hypocrisy.  Remember when it was racist to fear coronavirus or when all the dr’s and scientists we shouldn’t dare question were telling us there was no need for masks?  

DOBlue48

May 7th, 2020 at 8:47 PM ^

As it should be.  Federal level casts wide and general guidelines that state and even counties can further develop based on their specific situation.  NY, NY is nothing like des moines, IA and so those two cities should not have the same path forward.

champswest

May 7th, 2020 at 9:28 PM ^

I call B.S,

there is a lot of political jibber jabber there, but not much grit. I watched her press conference and scanned this document and it lacks detail. She started the pc by stating that she wanted to get into more of the details about how decisions were being made and the data they were looking at. Then she spent 10 minutes name dropping who is in her inner circle and didn’t really get into the detail. The question and answer period was short with a bunch of softball questions that she didn’t answer.

She says we are in phase 3 and I would argue that we are in 4 maybe even 5. She is clearly going to try to drag this out as long as she possibly can.

MZNBLUE

May 7th, 2020 at 11:53 PM ^

Spot on - this has been our governor's MO from day one on this - offering up meaningless comparisons (how many times is she going to invoke WWII or Vietnam War, with literally no context to the current situation) while not actually answering questions.  

She is actually, specifically ignoring science and data while at the same time insisting that science and data are driving her decisions.  There are really only 2 conclusions to draw from this - incompetence or political agenda - neither of which serves the state well.

She has been steps behind all throughout this process - last week Indiana's governor released a detailed plan that had specific metrics and qualifications, that go far beyond what she put together, after the fact.

Newsflash - the entire state of Michigan is NOT Detroit.

If the situation was as dire as she proclaims we would not be relying on the honor system.  I was at a retailer this evening and I would guess that 40-50% of the patrons were not wearing masks, yet we don't have massive outbreaks!

Something for folks to ponder - the first confirmed case in Michigan was the week of March 8.  This also happened to be the week after Spring Break for U-M, MSU, WMU and GVSU, just to name 4 schools.  Between students, staff and various employees you are looking at well over 200,000 people across those four campuses.  Those schools resumed classes on March 9 and did not alter in-person classes until Thursday of that week.  While those schools encouraged students to travel home the reality is that most did not.  Most Michiganders outside of the Detroit metro area did not alter their behavior until the the 3rd or 4th week of March.  The fact that there has not been a massive outbreak at any of those campuses or among the students, staff and employees indicates that this is not the dire problem that our governor would like us to believe.

 

BoFan

May 7th, 2020 at 4:51 PM ^

An important and “reasonable” point that nobody is discussing here is how the viral load directly impacts how sick you get. Quite simply, the more virus you’re exposed to at one time or cumulatively over a day, the more likely you are to be severely sick or even die. So, yes an N 95 mask provides a quite a lot of protection to you and to others you could expose if you’re asymptomatic. But any mask is going to provide some protection to reduce that viral load and potentially save your life or somebody else’s life.  

The Granddaddy

May 7th, 2020 at 5:03 PM ^

Same.  I am going insane. I have a fine job too from home during this. Just blows that as a young person without a family it like fucks up your entire way of life and ability to meet ppl. Plus, if every southern state is reopening it doesn’t mean shit for the efforts anyway. 

The Granddaddy

May 7th, 2020 at 5:16 PM ^

The plan was never to lockdown until a vaccine.  It was to lockdown until there was enough capacity at the hospitals.  At some point it must become a personal decision to stay inside and not a mandate.  There will never be a “right” time.  Someone will always think whatever time it ends is too soon. 

Sparty Doesn't Know

May 7th, 2020 at 7:51 PM ^

Preach!!  Didn't know you were on the common sense side of this one.  I apologize for making fun of your use of the word like.  Love the name and avatar, BTW.  Maybe Michigan will be in it again someday.

UcheWallyWally

May 8th, 2020 at 11:08 AM ^

This is exactly what former UM all-America and front line hero Dr. Chris Hutchinson had to say on the matter last week. He also didn’t believe the extension last week was necessary.  I highly doubt all of the MGoElitest would call him a selfish idiotic ahole though. 

His point was essentially 

The point was to flatten the curve and not overwhelm the hospitals. That’s been accomplished.  There will never be a right time to open back up and some people will always have “reasons” why it’s to soon

The Granddaddy

May 7th, 2020 at 5:32 PM ^

I actually don’t support that view at all. My whole point is that 1) there needs to be some end if we aren’t waiting until a vaccine next year  2) if a bunch of other states are opening anyway we are already fucked And 3) whenever the shift to government mandate vs personal choice happens, some will think it is too soon anyway

 

so, given all the above, when? June, July, August, vaccine? 

Desert Wolverine

May 7th, 2020 at 7:33 PM ^

Oh its different alright, but you are missing an important point.  We HAVE a vaccine ostensibly for the seasonal flu, and we still have 50K americans die from it every year.  But yet, we don't cripple ourselves over it.  While I agree the transmissibility factor of COVID makes it different than the other causes of death in the chart, it still does raise a perspective issue on what are we going to allocate resources to address.  Especially keeping in mind that the shut down eliminates many of the resources we need to address everything

robpollard

May 7th, 2020 at 8:27 PM ^

The flu deaths each year for the US are rough estimates, and they are 25-60k (it is not 50k every year). The CDC does not put a lot of effort, comparatively, into figuring it out. They don't need to b/c we know, with vaccines and basic care, we can keep the number from exploding. 

However, if we counted flu deaths like we count COVID-19 deaths (i.e., much more carefully, if still imperfectly), flu deaths would be a range from 3,448 to 15,620.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

Seeing as we're currently at 77,000 COVID-19 deaths, and will be at over 100,000 by the end of the month (and who knows where we end up -- 150,000? 250,000?), we are dealing with a disease somewhere around 10-40 times more deadly than the seasonal flu. That is the reality people are dealing with.