Freshmen Participation in the Harbaugh Era: 2015-2021 (2020 omitted)
A couple of days ago I looked at the 2022 player participation numbers so far. In that post, a few commenters asked about how this compared to other years and I was inspired to do some spreadsheeting for Freshmen participation. The first year Harbaugh got here seemed like a good stopping point for now (although comparing coaching staffs would probably be interesting too). I skipped 2020 because it was only six games and was also quite horrible.
I did not separate scholarship players from walk-ons but simply lumped them into three categories: Burned Redshirt, Participated, Did Not Play.
Purely using the rosters and participation data on mgoblue.com.
Without further comment, here's what came out:
September 14th, 2022 at 12:23 PM ^
Interesting post, OP. a LOT of players on those lists that didn't finish their careers at Michigan regardless of playing or not playing. Seems like the new "normal" of college football will see more freshman playing and burning redshirts for most position groups. i think the 5th year player will become increasingly less common. Unless you're MSU, they'll still get their guys a 6th year.
September 14th, 2022 at 4:18 PM ^
Disagree, there will be plenty of 5th year players. They just probably won't be playing for the team they started with. Which makes redshirt discussions all the more pointless IMO - there is a solid chance you're just saving that year for that player to play somewhere else. Play your guys early and see what you've got.
September 15th, 2022 at 1:50 AM ^
That’s what surprised me as well. I kept reading names and thinking oh, yeah…that guy. It’s also interesting that none of the transfers did a whole lot elsewhere.
September 14th, 2022 at 12:32 PM ^
Great post. I loved seeing that reminder of which guys were in which class.
Is Carter Selzer the only guy from the 2017 class still on our roster? Oliver Martin and Dylan McCaffrey are still playing for other teams.
September 14th, 2022 at 12:37 PM ^
Honingford too
September 14th, 2022 at 12:52 PM ^
Carter Selzer sounds like a guy who belongs to a country club that doesn’t admit brown people. It also sounds like the most popular beverage at said country club…
September 14th, 2022 at 2:02 PM ^
Isn't that judge Smails' nephew?
September 14th, 2022 at 1:29 PM ^
Brad Robbins. Respect the stache
September 14th, 2022 at 4:44 PM ^
Exactly, Brad was left off the list in the OP! No respect.
September 14th, 2022 at 7:51 PM ^
Robbins is there in 2017 with 10 games played.
Stache respected.
September 14th, 2022 at 1:53 PM ^
So is Filaga starting at MN
Chuck Filiaga | 76
OG | GR/TR | Minnesota
Ht: 6060 | Wt: 330 | Upd: 09/13/2022
Hometown: Aledo, TX | High School: Aledo
Transfer Schools: Michigan
September 14th, 2022 at 3:25 PM ^
"2022: Made his Minnesota debut and started at right guard against New Mexico State where he helped pave the way for the offense to gain 485 total yards and rush for five touchdowns • helped pave the way for Minnesota to gain 679 yards of offense (third most in school history) against Western Illinois." -- gophersports.com
September 14th, 2022 at 12:33 PM ^
It may just be recency bias and how the first two games have gone, but it sure seems like a whole bunch of the '21 Freshman have played way more than some of the other names from years past. Regardless if this is true or not, it's good that a lot of these guys have seen the field early this year. Bodes well for the future.
September 14th, 2022 at 12:36 PM ^
We've had lots of freshmen play before (19 so far this year, 25 last year, 27 in 2016) what matters more is how many play in more than 4 games. If they do that, then we know something more than that they got in for garbage time.
September 14th, 2022 at 12:36 PM ^
Good post. I am curious how the difficulty of our out of conference schedule affects this. The blowouts certainly help get the freshman some PT.
September 14th, 2022 at 12:40 PM ^
2015: Utah, Oregon St, UNLV, BYU
2016: Hawaii, UCF, Colorado
2017: Florida, Cincinnati, Air Force
2018: Notre Dame, WMU, SMU
2019: Middle Tenn, Army, ND (in game 8)
2021: WMU, Washington, NIU
2022: Colorado St, Hawaii, UConn
September 14th, 2022 at 12:51 PM ^
7 - the OOC schedule can certainly help a lot. It provides game film and analysis early in the season - which affords an option if there are solid leads in conference games later in the year.
With this year’s schedule - who knows - can the team build solid leads in multiple conference games? If so, those traveling - who are lower on the depth chart - may have a chance to see game action.
Remember - the travel squad is smaller than those who dress for home games. So, it’s really a greater opportunity in Ann Arbor for the 3’s and 4’s on the depth chart.
September 14th, 2022 at 9:12 PM ^
The schedule is 100% the reason all these guys have played so far. If it was vs. A top ten team most of the guys wouldn't have seen the field. But playing a cupcake in 2 games and a tougher 3rd game is how we should schedule now on. Get the young guys some playing time in those two games.
September 14th, 2022 at 12:37 PM ^
I think Harbaugh’s approach is as follows.
1. You’ll earn game time through preparation. When you’re ready to go, you’ll see game time - all things considered - e,g, Solid leads permit more player participation.
2. Enroll early, if possible.
3. Maintain Academic progress. If so, you could complete your undergraduate degree by the end of your third year on campus.
4. There is no concern about saving - or burning - a redshirt.
5. if you’ve followed your academic plan - and redshirted - and are “lower” on the depth chart, there are two options. After three full years - A) begin your graduate studies at Michigan, or B) be a grad transfer to another program with two full years of eligibility (who has their degree from Michigan).
I appreciate the that larger leads provide to get more players on the field. Nothing replicates game experience - nothing. As has been said - “You get better at football, by playing football.”
September 14th, 2022 at 4:47 PM ^
Maizen, we know number 4 is BS. Harbaugh was just talking these decisions on Jon Jensen's podcast yesterday.
September 14th, 2022 at 9:20 PM ^
SDW - I agree the coaching staff is aware of where players are with respect to their redshirt. And, an assessment is done to determine whether it makes sense to burn it, for three plays against a weaker conference opponent in November.
But, if it’s a position of limited depth - and, the player has shown they can work their way into the 3 on the depth chart - well, that’s the time for a decision.
September 14th, 2022 at 12:43 PM ^
The only one that stood out as maybe being incorrect is Hinton getting a DNP in 2019. He was a 5* and I swear he saw a few snaps; particularly in the bowl game vs Bama IIRC
Still, goes to show that he left way too early. Basically no time as a freshman, was a disaster in 2020, and was decent playing alongside two 1st round pick ends and an emerging nose.
Thanks for putting this together. It’s cool seeing guys who didn’t even see the field once as freshmen yet emerged into good players for us (i.e. Runyan, Hayes, Vadtardis, McGrone (for a minute)
September 14th, 2022 at 12:46 PM ^
This is what mgoblue.com has for 2019:
September 14th, 2022 at 1:02 PM ^
I had such high hopes for Hinton. He never seemed to quite put it all together, and obviously got bad advice and should of stuck around.
September 14th, 2022 at 1:41 PM ^
Maybe football wasn't his passion and he was starting to figure that out. No idea what he got his degree in, but maybe he liked that better.
Granted, I would have stuck around for the Masters programs at Michigan getting paid for, but iirc he did come from some money, so perhaps he wasn't worried about college being paid for either.
September 14th, 2022 at 2:04 PM ^
Seems like declaring for the draft was going to possibly lead to more football. Although the NFL pays a hell of a lot better.
September 14th, 2022 at 2:44 PM ^
Maybe he just wanted to accomplish his original goal, getting to the NFL. He did go to camp, he can say he made it.
I don't know about other people, but I've taken jobs I knew weren't going to work out before I took them. It was a goal made of ignorance, and I was damned if I wasn't going to at least give it a try after working that hard to get there.
September 14th, 2022 at 12:44 PM ^
Thanks, great post. Transfers make it hard to know for sure, but I'm honestly surprised by how few of the burned redshirts seem like mistakes in retrospect.
September 14th, 2022 at 1:18 PM ^
I'm tempted to say this is a good sign. It seems like stronger teams have correlated with higher participation rates, which makes sense, because the way you get to the deep bench (freshmen and walk-ons) is to take care of business early against the bad teams at home. (Which coincidentally is a large part of why we beat Rutgers so badly in 2016--since we were on the road we could only dress 70 players, which meant that the true deep bench players didn't even make the trip, keeping better players on the field through the end of the game).
Somewhat mitigating this however is remembering that Don Brown seemed to love keeping his starters in even in blowouts; MacDonald/Minter seem much more willing to pull the starters early, allowing a lot more defenders to get into the game.
September 14th, 2022 at 1:45 PM ^
Very interesting. Maybe this should be moved to Diaries?
September 14th, 2022 at 1:56 PM ^
To me there is The Horror and The Horror 2020. No more be said.
September 14th, 2022 at 1:57 PM ^
Thanks, Mr. Steak, fascinating stuff.
Am I interpreting it right that only two burned redshirts in 2015 means the cupboard was empty when Harbaugh arrived?
September 14th, 2022 at 2:37 PM ^
It could be that. And recruiting is hard during a coaching change. Other than that, hopefully someone smarter than me can help speculate.
September 14th, 2022 at 2:12 PM ^
Can someone remind me how they were able to have 41 freshman in 2017…?
September 14th, 2022 at 2:41 PM ^
I remember at senior day vs IU in 2016, they acknowledged 40 or so seniors. The 2017 class was quite large and throw in walk-ons as well I can believe 41
September 14th, 2022 at 5:14 PM ^
Yeah I remember the 2016 team was one of the most senior-laden teams I've seen in a while. Basically the whole defense and the offensive line were upperclassmen and even a bunch of backups who stuck around to see what the Harbaugh era looked like.
And likewise, the 2017 team was super young and it showed
September 14th, 2022 at 3:14 PM ^
If a player redshirted, they count as a freshman twice here I think. So any year with a low number of "burned" redshirts will be followed by a higher number of freshman. Hope that is helpful and more importanly correct
September 14th, 2022 at 9:15 PM ^
Walk-ons
September 14th, 2022 at 3:48 PM ^
So Hutch burned his redshirt in 2018 and Ojabo got a DNP in 2019. Two of the greatest DEs in recent memory took much different paths to the NFL.
September 14th, 2022 at 4:09 PM ^
Very striking how freshman participation correlates to how well the overall college career goes
I know this is obvious, but I enjoyed going through the list
September 14th, 2022 at 6:29 PM ^
I guess it's the other way around. Good players see the field early, and often. Thus getting better.
September 14th, 2022 at 5:17 PM ^
Greg Crippen burned his redshirt last year? I wonder if they try to get it back this year with Olu manning the center position. Only having 2 years for our "center of the future" doesn't seem great.