Football Nerds on OSU PSU
I have to admit that I usually really enjoy these guys and their previews of big games...but this one pissed me off. The first few minutes are spent trying to explain away how dominant we looked versus PSU as an aberration due to PSU's defense having to stay on the field for many more plays than a normal game, and therefore getting worn down by the fourth quarter. One of the hosts says several times that PSU was ahead at the half before wearing down late, which is obviously incorrect, but he's using that reasoning to make the case that PSU was actually really in the game more than we would say. My take, and basically every Michigan fan's take, and even unbiased media members like Joel Klatt's take, is that not only was it a beatdown for Michigan, the score doesn't even remotely reflect how dominant Michigan was, and it was only through blind luck that PSU was close at the half.
I'm torn because I want PSU to play well against OSU for some transitive hope for our game against OSU, and so I like that they're giving PSU a chance, but their reasoning, giving our game as the argument, sounds completely wrong to me. Anyway, here's the link in case you want to get pissed off like I did.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfrJLRiH2Jk
October 24th, 2022 at 12:45 PM ^
Don't let fools piss you off, mate. Anyone who watched that game knew the score was not indicative of what was happening on the field. Kudos to us for keeping them on the field and wearing them down - that part is indeed true.
I for one hope PSU beats OSU. Anything that makes our path to Indy easier at this point I'm all for.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:56 PM ^
I wholeheartedly agree with the sentiment 'anything that makes our path to Indy easier' is great, but a PSU win over OSU does not make the path any easier unless OSU drops a 2nd game prior to ours, which is extremely unlikely...
Given the fact OSU's floor is 10-1 prior to The Game - and therefore the B1G East will all come down to The Game regardless - I'm in the camp of wanting to play OSU at 11-0, as that win would look that much more impressive and make Cooler Pooper fans that much more agonizingly despondent that we dismantled the Death Star yet again.
October 24th, 2022 at 1:01 PM ^
Not sure if this is true. There were multiple threads during the by week about a hypothetical 3 way tie between OSU, PSU and UM all finishing with 1 loss in the B1G -- I believe we would go in that scenario.
October 24th, 2022 at 2:31 PM ^
How do they decide who goes to the B10 championship in a three way tie?
October 24th, 2022 at 2:48 PM ^
If PSU, Michigan, and OSU all end up with one conference loss with OSU losing to PSU and Michigan losing to OSU then it most likely goes to the highest ranked team in the rankings, which would almost certainly be OSU since they just beat us and PSU probably can't make it into the top 5 winning out. If we're all within one rank I think it goes to a coin flip.
October 24th, 2022 at 3:38 PM ^
Nope, it would go to the 5th tie breaker, which is the cumulative records of non-divisional opponents:
5. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.
(a) Example: East 1 non-divisional opponents are 20-7, East 2 non-divisional opponents are 19-8, East 3 non-divisional opponents are 14-13 – East 1 would be the representative.
Right now that would be 1. M (6-6) 2. PSU (5-7) 3. OSU (4-9).
Should this come to be, M's rooting interest is for Illinois and Nebraska, against Purdue, Northwestern, and Wisconsin.
Rankings play no part in the tiebreakers at any point (tiebreaker 8 is random draw).
https://bigten.org/news/2011/8/10/Big_Ten_Conference_Football_Divisional_Tiebreaker.aspx
October 24th, 2022 at 8:40 PM ^
Perfect, thanks
October 24th, 2022 at 1:19 PM ^
I am all for OSU losing to PSU and UM. That way those aholes won't get in with a close loss to us
October 24th, 2022 at 9:43 PM ^
The committee would probably put in 3 sec teams before they put in two big 10 schools.
October 24th, 2022 at 2:34 PM ^
100% get this perspective, relevant right now for this season.
But recruiting-wise, more players will consider Michigan earlier if other teams are beaten earlier and Michigan stays undefeated. They would get more talk on the networks, it just works.
These arguments can go all day, but feel good for the long-term potential of the program if OSU looks worse early. Ignore the thought that people say it makes the conference look weaker if OSU loses earlier. Clemson has won in an average conference many times and it works for them to be rested for the playoffs with fewer injuries. Not that I want a weaker conference, just saying.
October 24th, 2022 at 10:26 PM ^
I want OSU to lose out, and have all their stars sit out to avoid a potential injury in The Game, and then beat their ass again.
October 24th, 2022 at 1:24 PM ^
True that. Those guys are just pissed that their prediction model was so off.
October 24th, 2022 at 1:30 PM ^
People should stop posting content from them and giving CFN and their "model" free clicks and airspace.
October 24th, 2022 at 9:47 PM ^
Exactly. OP seems like a reasonable and level-headed person. If reading it pisses you off, then I’m just going to skip it because I’m neither of those things.
October 24th, 2022 at 1:53 PM ^
Didn't one of those guys predict us to lose to PSU?
October 24th, 2022 at 2:24 PM ^
Their preview takes on the Mich PSU game were about as dead wrong as reasonably possible. They thought the O/U was crazy high. Lots of props for Clifford. Would be a tight slog. Reluctantly took Michigan. They didn't trust their own model, which was certainly more accurate than they were.
October 24th, 2022 at 10:28 PM ^
To be fair, all the “experts” on big noon pregame thought it would be decided by a field goal and at least one picked PSU to win…
October 24th, 2022 at 7:49 PM ^
Nothing wrong with OSU losing just for the loss of it. No need to justify it any more.
October 24th, 2022 at 10:29 PM ^
Exactly correct. Makes our ass kicking of PSU that much more impressive.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:45 PM ^
I think the quality of Penn State's pass D will have a chance to turn this game into a bit of a slog for Ohio State. They have the run game to push PSU around, but will they have the patience to deploy it optimally? We will see, but I do predict an interception or two for Stroud and a halftime score that puts all eyes on this game Saturday for at least the 3rd quarter.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:54 PM ^
I think the big question is whether they can get pressure on Stroud. That seems key to having much success against OSU's offense, because he doesn't face pressure often and he hasn't seemed to deal with it particularly well when he does. But no matter how good a secondary is, it's going to break down against those receivers if Stroud can sit in the pocket and go through progressions.
Also, this is only the third truly hostile away crowd he's faced in his career (and the only one he'll face this year). He was good, not great in both hostile away games (UM, obviously, and also Nebraska, where he threw two INTs) last year.
October 24th, 2022 at 1:06 PM ^
Needs, this may be semantic - I think Penn State can pressure Stroud - the question IMO is - can they apply pressure with four - or, will they need five or six.
It should be a fun game to watch on Saturday.
October 24th, 2022 at 1:10 PM ^
DE Chop Robinson didn't play for PSU Saturday versus Minnesota.
He didn't play because of "undisclosed reasons" --- e.g., it may have been injury-related, it may have been shenanigans-related.
Anyway, it would be to PSU's benefit to have him back Saturday. He's probably PSU's best pass rusher. Of course, PSU needs to get OSU into passing situations, which is much easier said than done.
October 24th, 2022 at 4:42 PM ^
Kick their ass this weekend! They are shooting their mouths off more than they should be this week about our game.
October 24th, 2022 at 10:33 PM ^
OSU 66 yards rushing vs Iowa?
October 24th, 2022 at 12:46 PM ^
BPONE usually grasps me with its cold, lifeless hands during a game like PSU. We dominated PSU so badly that first half I had no doubts despite the score.
October 25th, 2022 at 7:44 AM ^
I wholeheartedly agree. I saw the halftime stats and cackled with glee. I knew a reversal was possible but more than usual it seemed unlikely. PSU was in the game because of "luck" meaning big plays that occurred in a vacuum and not because they were setup. The pick six setup by a double carom was memorable.
Apparently, the nerds put zero weight on zero punts.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:48 PM ^
Seems like some takes from someone who really didn't watch much, if any, of the game.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:49 PM ^
I know OSU will try to hang more points on PSU, then Michigan did. They always try that what you did we can do better shit! I hope OSU loses. You never know CJ could have a bad game and sink their team.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:56 PM ^
I'm fine with that as long as we put up more points on Sparty than they did
October 24th, 2022 at 5:56 PM ^
I don't think any of this matters as OSU is not going to lose to PSU and they don't care about the score. My point - it's all going to come down to the game in Columbus - plain and simple - and both teams know it
October 24th, 2022 at 12:51 PM ^
There are wins. There are easy wins. And there are beat downs. Anyone who watched that game knew it was a beatdown, and the only question at the half was whether PSU could pull a rabbit out of a hat, play even in the second half, and wait for a third fluky play to deliver them a win. Alas, their coaches left their magic hats at home, and the beatdown continued.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:55 PM ^
For whatever reason be it past losses in inconvenience times mishandling punts and what not, Michigan doesn’t seem to get the benefit of the doubt at the national level. It’s annoying. Keep winning.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:57 PM ^
This game could just as easily have been 56-7 as what it was. Easily the most unholy beatdown of an undeniably talented--and probably pretty good; they might still win ten games in a weak B1G--team in the Harbaugh Era
October 24th, 2022 at 1:05 PM ^
That 2019 ND game in the torrential downpour is up there. That team still finished 11-2 with their only other loss being #3 Georgia
October 24th, 2022 at 1:12 PM ^
That's probably the most fun I've had watching a Harbaugh team other than The Game in 2021
October 24th, 2022 at 3:18 PM ^
And then they followed that up 3 weeks later with a 44-10 drubbing of MSU. That was a fun season until it wasn’t.
303 yards rushing against ND followed by 384 yards passing against MSU. Such nice displays of taking advantage of the opponents’ weaknesses.
October 24th, 2022 at 8:28 PM ^
There are a few candidates actually:
2015 Northwestern (38-0) - this was a good NU team (finished 10-3)
2015 Florida (41-7)
2016 PSU (49-10)
2018 PSU (42-7)
2018 Wisconsin (38-13)
2019 ND (45-14)
2021 Wisconsin (38-17)
2021 Iowa (42-3)
2022 PSU (41-17)
October 24th, 2022 at 1:12 PM ^
1. OP, you should care/get upset about what the football nerds think of our win over PSU roughly as much as you should care what color socks I have on right now (gray).
2. We DEFINITELY want PSU to win on Saturday. Not just because a loss for OSU is always fun but more importantly, it opens up a clear path for us to win the east - even with a potential loss to OSU in the finale.
October 24th, 2022 at 1:49 PM ^
Gray socks? Are you a secret OSU fan?
October 24th, 2022 at 2:51 PM ^
Even worse than that.
THE CUBS!
October 24th, 2022 at 5:46 PM ^
Cubs, Browns, Cranbrook. Michigan certainly is an outlier in your athletic fandom.
October 25th, 2022 at 7:50 AM ^
Strong memory. I hope to attend the Cranbrook Calumet hockey game in December.
October 24th, 2022 at 9:19 PM ^
Actually, it is in Michigan's best interest if OSU wins. That would eliminate PSU from being a CFP contender...and we want OSU to be rated where they currently are or higher when we play them. OSU receives every benefit of any doubt relative to rankings and there is nothing more glorious than sending an arrogant opponent crashing from their lofty perch.
October 24th, 2022 at 1:14 PM ^
I mean, first, yeah, we obviously dominated, and were a few fluke plays from the scoreboard reflecting just how much we kicked their ass (could have easily been something like 56-3).
PSU's defense having to stay on the field for many more plays than a normal game, and therefore getting worn down by the fourth quarter.
But this also struck me. It's stated as an excuse for why our win wasn't actually that dominant, but isn't this the point of the Harbaugh style running offense? Just running them over again and again until they're ground into dust. You saw it in the second half against OSU last year. Four drives, four touchdowns with something like three passes. We just ran the ball and they couldn't stop us. Actually I think they had the ball for close to 2x the time we did in the second half. I'm sure that Harbaugh would have loved to burn more clock in the second half, but it's hard to when the opponent literally can't stop you (our four TD drives were nine, five, five and three plays long)...
October 24th, 2022 at 5:30 PM ^
According to these fools it was 18-1 on first downs, and THEN PSU wore down. Things were fine in the first half…
October 24th, 2022 at 1:16 PM ^
We don’t need transitive hope. OSU isn’t going to be distracted and neither are we. I love and hate our fanbase. I don’t care if PSU takes OSU to triple OT, it doesn’t matter. OSU is going to be hungry to play us, if Michigan brings the same energy, we have a shot. Please stop worrying about how other teams look, if that’s the case, I hope you didn’t watch Iowa play OSU and think that means anything for us.
October 24th, 2022 at 1:23 PM ^
I wish I could be this brand of badass fan, but it doesn't work that way for me. If OSU struggles with PSU it'll be a positive indicator for me.
October 24th, 2022 at 1:19 PM ^
This is a much better match-up for PSU. Bucks are a finesse team with great Wrs. PSU has great secondary players.
if they can keep it close and bounce Stroud off of his spot a few times, this will be a game. QB Happy Feet is a much different QB when it gets rougher. He is much more traditional QB and not prototype (ex. Hurts, Allen, Jackson)
October 24th, 2022 at 7:27 PM ^
Disagree about OSU being a finesse team this year. Their defense is designed - with the new staff - of stopping the run and keeping the QB contained and under pressure.
And that RB - #3 -pounds the ball on offense although I've read that both their RBs have been banged up lately