Football comparison to Brandon Johns Jr. (potential vs performance)
Reading Brian answer mailbag questions regarding players who's ability didn't always match their perfomance got me thinking about Brandon Johns Jr, and how he may be the difference in a Final Four run or not. I was trying to think of a football comparison to a player like him. Someone who has been here for several year, never a full time starter, well-regarded recruit, shows some flashes, but always seems to get praise from the commentators about his "potential." Every time Johns comes in the commentators will say something along the lines of "this is a player who they really love" or "he has so much potential." And every time he does something well they'll say "there is that potential" yet when he does something poorly it is usually not talked about much or we get an "even though he turned it over, you can still see that potential."
The player that came to mind for me was Ty Isaac. A 5-star transfer who never really broke through, but his "potential" or "versatility" was always brought up when he came in. By the time Ty was a senior he was a pretty decent rotational RB; nowhere near what the hope was for him when he came, but a decent player.
Are there any other players who come to mind who seemed to always be "almost there" but never seemed to break through? DPJ also comes to mind, but I don't think he is a great comparison because as a sophomore he was pretty damn good and once he was healthy as a Junior he was a real good WR who had spotty QB play (never fully lived up to the 5* hype but was a real good player for a couple years).
I can see a Tom Brady type career, where he’s first shunned, then appreciated, then worshipped.
That's not how I remember Brady happening. He was the next star QB up after Grbac, Collins, Greise. The Henson thing suck and I remember thinking that it was BS that Henson got snaps because he should wait his turn like everyone else. I thought Brady was going to be a first or second round pick after he tore up Bama. (I didn't watch the combine.) I was shocked when he went so low. No one saw the GOAT coming, but I thought he'd be somewhere between Grbac and Greise.
Brady had the job to himself in 1998. Henson only saw mop-up duty that year. But Brady had so-so season and the offense struggled. That’s what caused there to be a competition the next year. Brady stepped up his game in ‘99 and I felt like Carr kept the platoon going too long into the season, but it was understandable that there was a competition to start the season.
Didn't a lot of people think Jermaine Gonzales would break the streak of typical pocket passers at Michigan and was ranked pretty high? That didnt happen and he moved to wide receiver.
Then the same thought with Antonio Bass and unfortunately he got hurt.
Johns could still be here another two years and could grow into a real star. Best thing is he seems to have a very positive attitude
Johns is an athletic big body who plays hard. He is going to get more opportunity now than he ever has had. Maybe he makes a big tournament jump and has some fun!
Back up version of Devin Funchess.
Good recruit. Tweener in size. Plays different positions. Has the athleticism to do impressive things. Inconsistent and prone to bad plays here and there.
I was also thinking Marcus Knight since he overlapped with Streets, Terrell, and Walker. Was never THE guy but was good. My memory of him is a little iffy though.
My comparison with Johns is a QB with Jittery feet in the pocket and the first instinct is to take off and run, or a RB that runs ahead of his blockers.
Johns has a very high ceiling being a big that can ball handle and shoot from the perimeter, but sometimes gets in trouble with the quick fouls and turnovers. If Brandon lets the game come to him he could be a star. If it happens starting this week, we could win this damn thing!
Just my opinion.
Agreed, good assessment. My biggest issue with him when he gets the ball, especially on the block, he's in too much of a hurry and too determined to take a shot or get his, if you will.
I wish he would pick and choose better when he does this and be willing to pass to an open guy more because I'm sure the film shows this and teams will just collapse the defense on him so other guys should be open. Also he does make boneheaded miscues at times and just needs to calm down a bit.
I still have high Hope's for him and his experience will be well needed next year.
I think this assessment does a good job of pointing out that the game is still too sped up for him. The good news is (hopefully) that as he gets more minutes, the game will continue to slow down for him and he can see the floor a bit better. He most definitely needs to be more decisive, and part of that is the pace of the game and experience. It's very clear when we get some guys on the floor who are not the starting 5 that there are times at which the bench players don't know where to go or what exactly to do to execute a called play or helping on defense, etc. I am hopeful that a lot of this will really change for Brandon over the rest of his career here, as he gets more time on task and carries a bit more of that burden. He is a kid who I can see thriving under pressure due to his ability to mismatch 1-3 and matchup evenly at 4-5 with plus athleticism. I don't want him to be another guy I am left wondering about
What is crazy is that he is 6'8, spends a lot of time at the 5, yet has the absolute quickest first step on the team when he's on the perimeter and penetrates to the basket. I've said for a couple years now if you gave his first step to Livers, Livers would already be in the NBA and would have been a 1st rounder.
This is a good point. Livers plays a lot "softer" with his ball handling and the way he takes on contact or creates space for himself. We have seen him posterize a few people this year and it has been fucking sick, but Johns seems like the kind of crazy that not only posterizes people in the halo, but tries to dunk on you from the top of the key because fuck you.
I think if you continued your thought experiment but flipped it on it's head it would be more interesting with a potentially higher ceiling yet; Brandon Johns with the confidence and decisiveness of Livers, or perhaps the experience as a whole that has allowed Isaiah to be such a quintessential glue guy who can lead the team and has brought him out of his shell. If BJ could find his confidence or swag or whatever you want to call it - whether that comes from a mental state or getting better at some things and understanding his role and the team better to become more confident - I think he could ruin people. I feel like a lot of us can feel 40% from 3 and finishing above 50% at the rim, averaging an easy 10 and 10 with maybe some assists and blocks/steals tossed in there. If Livers was bouncy and athletic, or like you said had that first step, he would be Brandon Johns if Brandon Johns could just find that little extra something that helps it all click and come together for him
Johns just needs some practice time with the ones working within the structure of the offense. The guy has length and athleticism, his feet are just out in front of his thinking. When he has a defined role and plays within the confines of sets that are drawn up involving him, then his upside shows through. Hopefully this week of practice allows him to play looser. He has a prominent role. Chaundee has seemingly regressed as his role decreased also, but we all saw early on what he was capable of. Let’s hope the two of them can find a groove.
I agree with this in full. My post above essentially rambles at an attempt to say this. I have also noticed the regression in Chaundee and felt the same about there being a period of time where he and some others like Williams and Johns are logging maybe 2-8 minutes a game over the course of a several game stretch. I think it's definitely hard to stay sharp when that happens. Just like a second string QB coming in off the bench is a huge worry, aside from the typical drop off in skill, or more fittingly, just like so many people were worried about covid pauses or missing spring practices and the like. Yes, you are installing playbooks and doing a ton of downloading and info dumps, but also not being able to compete, scrimmage even in this case, really dulls out your skill. Probably easy to shoot jumpers in the drive way at home and knock them down all day. Go to various courts and do it with a competitive hand in your face and you aren't going to feel the same
Tariq Black
I don't get why everyone sees potential in him. He can't shoot unless it's a completely wide open catch and shoot, he doesn't have the handle to are someone off the dribble and I swear half the time he posts up he gets blocked, doesn't matter if he has three inches on the other guy.
The potential thing all comes from 1) Beilein telling everyone who would listen he was a future 1st rounder, and 2) Johns passes the eye test as an NBA athlete who can score at multiple levels.
From the outside all the potential talk seems somewhere between annoying and detrimental to a guy figuring out how to put it all together. Every time Johns does a press conference he mostly gets leading questions about his confidence with the leading part adjusted for the most recent performance. Doesn't sound like a fun way to get and stay in a good headspace.
With extended minutes he'll finally have the chance to play through mistakes. I'm betting he does a lot more good than bad with them.
This also reminds me that he's getting a bunch of his minutes as a 5 as well, and I think it would benefit him to take on a more similar role to Livers as well. Or how Charles Matthews would play; just being more on the outside waiting to catch and go to the bucket or create the smallest space and rise up. I hope he has better vision than CM tho, dude could only see the hoop once he decided he was driving
What ever happen to Nunez. I remember when Beilein said he would develop into a 3 point shooting guard. We could use some more 3 point shooters.
Even JB didn’t bat 1.000 on evals.
Núñez looks like he’s having a blast being in the bench mob, really like to see that from a guy who probably thought he’d be a starter rather than a Kenpom time guy.
Johns is similar. He didn’t come here to be the third guy off the bench but I’ve never seen him anything less than enthusiastic and supportive
Nunez was 305 on 247. That's random 3-star territory in basketball. There were some good reasons to bring him in, size and 3 point shooting, and I didn't expect him to just be a total garbage time player, but it's not like he was ever going to be a big-time player really.
It seemed like ty needed the ball more ,but that seems to be the problem with a lot of our backs! Rumor was he was in harbaughs doghouse for awhile for what I have no idea!
March 18th, 2021 at 10:15 PM ^
Fumbling.
Let’s see what happens I like the fact that he knows he’s going to get significant minutes and will be critical. Everything to play for. Let’s see him get it done.
How about our very own Eli Brooks? He started in front of Zavier for the first half of his freshman year. People have been all over him up until recently. Brandon Johns with a DJ Wilson breakout season coming up? Why not.
Are there any other players who come to mind who seemed to always be "almost there" but never seemed to break through?
I feel like we kept waiting for the light to come on for Kyle Kalis and it never quite did. He was a multi year starter, but with lots of missed assignments and never lived up to the hype. I also think Gary never broke through. He never got the sack numbers everyone expected. He was good, but not great, or at least didn't put up great numbers in our system. Hinton kinda seems that way so far, but this will be a big year for him. He's OK, not great. He's still young, but you'd think a sophomore 5-star would be more accomplished. BWC was probably another one. I think there are lots.
Kalis is actually a real good one that I forgot about. He was so underwhelming for so long, but there was always that thought because everyone said he was the best OL from the midwest in some time. By the time he was a senior, he was pretty good, and I think we all got to the point where as fans that was good enough because of how bad he was for a while.
March 19th, 2021 at 11:05 AM ^
He was solid his senior year. A lot went wrong in the Orange Bowl in '16 with Peppers not playing, which forced McCray to match up against Dalvin Cook, which was a problem. Also, Butt tore his ACL early. But, Kalis' inability to block Derrick Nnadi & Demarcus Walker probably cost us the game because they were in the backfield all night and Speight had no time to do anything.