First Michigan Monday is up - Gerdeman on Harbaugh
Fair and insightful take on Harbaugh and Michigan.
This seems an appropriate follow-up to Ramzy's article a couple of years ago as to why Ohio State dominates this rivalry.
Maybe Michigan does have the right attitude, finally.
The issue then remains whether they have the talent to win the game. We shall see.
The issue then remains whether they have the talent to win the game. We shall see.
A few years ago I would have said yes. With the right scheme on a year the game was at home, I'd like their chances. But, that was back when UM was in the top 10 in the team talent composite and OSU didn't have a Heisman candidate at QB, multiple 5-star WRs, and a roster laden with top 100 talent.
UM recruits their fair share of 4-stars with a few 5-stars, but no where near the level of OSU any longer. It also hurt that UMs best chances like 2016 and 2018 were on the road. OSU has only had one year outside the top 5 in the class rankings for the last 7 years and even then it was only because they had a small class. In that same time UM only cracked the top 5 once and that was in 2017 which was decimated by injuries and transfers. The talent difference is now insurmountable even at home with a good performance by UM. OSU would have to shoot themselves in the foot like when PSU beat them at home and they turned the ball over 3 times. But, they never do that against UM.
Had a great chance and game plan in 2017 but then Dwayne Haskins came in an no adjustments were made and JOK was... well, JOK.
We would have won that game if we had a serviceable QB like Shea, aka Mineral King, we would have won that game. Seems like we are always out of phase! when we had a great D, our offense was meh and when our offense was decent our defense was meh. I think it will take several years to build up the talent and depth to compete with OSU. I'm no longer confident that Harbaugh will be the coach when we finally become closer to OSU talent level to possibly win a home game but we are looking after 2026 before this is the case.
If Wilton was as "healthy" as he was the year before, probably would have won as well.
“If” is the most pathetic excuse. Fifteen years of “if”.
Not really making any excuses but more or less just stating that a QB who played with a broken collarbone the year before would have been better, in that same condition, than JOK.
It is an excuse, just like all of the excuses that lead us to another contract for Harbaugh.
Cool, thanks for your contribution!
Your hero isn’t going to save this shit show.
Who is my hero? What the fuck are you even talking about?
If Wilton was as "healthy" as he was the year before, probably would have won as well.
Unfortunately, he didn't play as well in 2017 even before he got injured.
In 2016 he had a 61.6%, 18 TDs, 7 INTs, and a QB rating of 139.8 in 2016. In 2017 he had a 54.3%, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, and a QB rating of 121.9. That's significantly worse.
But, you're right if we got average 2016 Speight we would have won that game. It also doesn't help that and we can never run the ball against them to keep them from coming at our QB every 2nd and 3rd and long and being on the run all game.
Maybe that changes this year...
If Brady was still eligible we'd be kickin' ass.
If Brady was still eligible we'd be kickin' ass.
Probably, but some of his offenses were also loaded. It helps when you've got two first rounders on the o-line in Hutchinson & Backus, a pair of All American WRs in Terrell & Walker, and a first team All Conferece RB in Thomas. I don't think we've ever had that kind of talent on offense one team under JH.
This is my point when people overrate the talent we have. They dont seem to remember us always having at least an All Big Ten QB, seemingly always one All American wide receiver, and an All American/All Big Ten back plus great line play.
Our talent now is not like when Lloyd was here. Not that Lloyd didnt underachieve for the talent he had, but the talent was good enough to go against any team in the country.
Our talent now is not like when Lloyd was here. Not that Lloyd didnt underachieve for the talent he had, but the talent was good enough to go against any team in the country.
Carr had several top 5 recruiting classes in the 2000s alone including the #1 in '99, never mind the rest of the 90s where databases like 247 don't go back that far. JH had one top 5 class (#5 in 2017) and that class got decimated by injuries and transfers.
The out of phase is sometimes circumstance, sometimes a coach or two, but mostly because we don't consistently reel in the talent in the numbers and at the same level as OSU.
Ummm, if Shea was actually a fucking serviceable QB M would have beaten Ohio in the games they actually fucking played.
2019 v Ohio Shea threw for 18-43
Maybe a bowl game too.
2020 Citrus Shea finished17/37, 233 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT
2018 Peach Shea finished 22/36, 236 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Those are Brandon Peters numbers by way of comparison. Fuck Shea Patterson and his inflated stats against tomato cans.
Yeah Dude, because our defenses didn’t get torched. Shea’s fault tho. Should have put in whom?
Complete some passes, make 1st downs, keeps the defense off the field.
This seems harsh. I’m not a huge Shea fan but Shea was just another Harbaugh qb failure. JH has created a really concerning pattern of qb development.
O-line couldn't make holes to run either and WRs also dropped passes.
1969. OK that was 50 years ago. And at least a few times in the 90s OSU shot themselves in the foot. I'll give you that OSU hasn't blown a game to us in the last 20, while we clearly have.
However, sports as in all things tend to have a reversion to the mean, so there is hope that they may stub their toe this year when we need it most.
1969. OK that was 50 years ago. And at least a few times in the 90s OSU shot themselves in the foot. I'll give you that OSU hasn't blown a game to us in the last 20, while we clearly have.
You are correct. I said "never" and I didn't mean it. The Cooper era did it a lot. Anything before that was before my time. But, they haven't done it since Tress arrived and reinvigorated their focus on the rivalry. It just seems like forever :/
Yeah, there is a talent gap, but the biggest gap has been with QB and scheme. I think that if the new pieces of the staff, especially defensively, develop right then you will see a competitive game. That is a big if, but I also feel that history has beaten down Michigan fandom justifiably, and things will eventually change. Maybe the Bucks have an average QB this year...
Yeah, there is a talent gap, but the biggest gap has been with QB and scheme. I think that if the new pieces of the staff, especially defensively, develop right then you will see a competitive game.
Getting even QB play, or even outplaying them there would go miles to evening up the competitiveness of the game. They were always good, but they became elite when they got an elite QB. And, they've had two in a row now. We missed out on getting elite QB play out of Peters/Patterson and McCaffrey/Milton. I think we are really in the same boat going into this year with first year QBs. Stroud is higher ranked than McNamara, but he's inexperienced and Cade is a year older and has more experience. Then, we both have true freshman 5-stars in McCord & McCarthy, although they have the #1 overall player coming in at QB in Ehlers in the '22 class. But, from a talent standpoint we are probably about even for the next 2-3 years. Unfortunately, they are light years ahead in their scheme.
I didn’t realize OSU has a Heisman candidate at QB since they don’t have a new starter this year.
"UM recruits their fair share of 4-stars with a few 5-stars, but no where near the level of OSU any longer. "
And, with just my eyeball and completely uneducated opinion to go by... the gap between their five stars and our four stars seems to be bigger than the gap between our four stars and three stars.
We were closer prior to OSU figuring out Brown's calls, then it just got ugly and stupid. And now with the 4 team CFL playoffs in there we have yet another hurdle to overcome because the uber recruits want to go to OSU, Clemson, LSU, and Bama.
To get a win I think scheme, luck, and players going out of their mind all have to come together.
They missed 3 field goals and only had 124 yard passing in 2016
"Attitude" has absolutely nothing to do with it. I'm so tired of hearing these bullshit hot takes about Michigan's "attitude," whether they "want it more," whether they "understand the rivalry." It's all so stupid and meaningless.
Michigan loses to Ohio State every year because Ohio State made the choice in the early 2000s to sacrifice their integrity and culture as a legitimate academic institution to win football games. This choice was rewarded by the college football playoff system, further cementing their competitive advantage on the recruiting trail. Now the talent gap is so significant that coaching is largely irrelevant.
Anyone offering a different answer is, quite frankly, an idiot.
Cam, I agree. And to make things worst, we increased the difficulty to accepting some athletes while Bama and OSU opened the doors.
This is more than a Harbaugh thing, although I do think he made it harder than it needed to be.
But why is it that top players didn't sit out last year for OSU and they did here?
This isn't to say that OSU is unbeatable but it is telling that a new coach in Ryan Day is undefeated at OSU through two seasons.
Well… I disagree and I may be an idiot.
Coaching is absolutely relevant. Teams across the spectrum of sports will not win with poor coaching regardless of talent. USA vs France in basketball the other day is a good example. Time and again I’ve seen the right coach get hired by the right team and changed everything.
Also, yes, OSU is consistently out recruiting us but by no means does Michigan recruit junk.
Cam gets it.
Yep.
Ok. Again if that’s the argument for OSU, which I can’t completely disagree with, how come Wisconsin has wiped the floor with us for the past two years, PSU is 50% against Harbaugh, MSU is 50%, and we’ve won one bowl game in 6 years?
if coaching was on point we should have upset OSU at least once at this point. In 2018 OSU showed defensive weakness on the permitter and so our gameplan was to run up the middle and bleed clock.
Exactly. People act like OSU is our problem while ignoring the fact we’re about equivalent with PSU and MSU and have gotten waxed by Wisconsin the past 2 years.
Yes, but.....that doesn't at all explain Hoke's success against Ohio State. And by success, I don't mean winning, obviously. I mean gaming it. Not giving up to a superior team and coach. That was an attitude thing. I haven't seen that in Harbaugh's teams.
2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018 I would strongly disagree. Last year I don't count, but 2019... maybe.
Call me an idiot, but to quote Remember the Titans, "Attitude reflects leadership," and I think it greatly has at times under harbaugh. Not to say you're wrong on your other points, but I do think it all starts with the right attitude, and the rest follows.
Good points and I don't disagree but I have noticed that Michigan screws up (roughing the kicker was first of many under Harbaugh) in the OSU game. I know the refs have helped with pass interference but is OSU ever off-sides? OSU coaches seem to get a good game out of their team (calm, persistent) while Michigan seems panic prone (dropped interception) when playing OSU.
I disagree. OSU's academic reputation has gone up considerably in the last 20 years. The success of the football team has helped it to attract strong out of state students. Same thing happened to Alabama.
It must be lonely being the only genius in a world of idiots.
Michigan loses to Ohio State every year because Ohio State made the choice in the early 2000s to sacrifice their integrity and culture as a legitimate academic institution to win football games. This choice was rewarded by the college football playoff system, further cementing their competitive advantage on the recruiting trail. Now the talent gap is so significant that coaching is largely irrelevant.
I don't disagree. What I don't understand is why UM changed. Prior to the mid 2000s UM recruited even with OSU. They had several top 5 classes under Carr and even a #1 overall in '99. At some point either late Carr or after Carr left the culture of UM football seemed to change. Maybe we didn't always win, but we were competitive. It didn't matter if it was OSU, Texas, USC, Florida, etc. We never got blown out the way we've been blown out by OSU the last two games. We were routinely in the mix for the top players across the nation every year in recruiting. When is the last time we took a top talent from Texas like Ryan Mallett or a top player from Ohio (that OSU actually wants too) like Prescott Burgess, Pierre Woods, or Mario Manningham? Not being able to recruit Ohio's top players is a problem. I never recall us using academics or ethics as an excuse for why we lost under Carr.
Scheme is what happened. Well, that makes sense under Urban but what exactly did Tressel do to beat us? We had the personnel to match with Tressel boys.
OSU isn’t a legitimate academic institution? Says who? You?
"Michigan loses to Ohio State every year because Ohio State made the choice in the early 2000s to sacrifice their integrity and culture as a legitimate academic institution to win football games.
Your explanation of OSU's success is no more convincing than the "want it more" bullshit that you rightfully criticize.
Schools all over the country have for decades "made the choice to sacrifice their integrity and culture as legitimate academic institutions to win football games" without doing much better than Michigan has, let alone coming close to OSU's recent success on the field. SMU, Baylor, Ole Miss, and UNC are just a few that come to mind right away.
What OSU did right in 2001 was to hire an unethical guy who was also a hell of a coach, with four national championships and two more NC game appearances to his credit before he was hired by OSU. That he wasn't OSU's first or second choice is a testament to how fortunate OSU was. Then after the one-year interim period under Fickell—the last time we beat OSU, even though they certainly hadn't changed into choir boys—OSU hits the jackpot again with the perfectly-timed availability of Urban Meyer, one of the best coaches in college football history.
Do you believe that OSU was dramatically more ethical under John Cooper or Earle Bruce?
Take Oklahoma. Under Barry Switzer, Oklahoma players constantly showed up on police blotters, but Switzer's record as an elite coach is undeniable. Switzer's successor Gary Gibbs didn't come close to matching Switzer's record, nor did Schnellenberger in his one year. Then OU hit rock bottom with former Gibbs assistant John Blake, whose record of unethical behavior at UNC forced him to resign in 2010; Blake was hit with a show-cause penalty in 2012 by the NCAA. It's implausible to think that Blake's miserable coaching record at OU was attributable to him suddenly running a clean program. His successor Bob Stoops immediately restored OU's program, winning a NC in his second season. It's not the case that Stoops ran a squeaky-clean program; OU was placed on probation for two years in 2007. He was simply an outstanding coach.
Michigan's problems with OSU stem from the fact that our most successful recent head coach stayed on a few years too long, and more critically the two guys that came after him were disasters. Then the supposed savior of the program has been dogged by constant turnover in assistants, problems in recruiting priorities at certain positions, and frequently head-scratching if not bizarre game day coaching decisions. Given the ability of programs like MSU, Purdue, and Iowa to pull off upsets of OSU despite recruiting classes that are dramatically lower-ranked than Michigan's, it's not the case that OSU's talent advantage is so overwhelming that it's impossible to beat them. Our coaching simply hasn't been good enough.
There are some good points in there, but surely other teams that OSU spends less time focusing on makes it easier for them to upset OSU. UM can't sneak up on them or play them right before a bigger game. While the reasons you provided are why UM hasn't had OSU's success, there is more to the story of why almost any other program can upset them easier than UM by the nature of the rivalry, what happened in the 90s, and it always being the last regular season game. Unfortunately UM will always be more team's rival than OSU will and OSU will always be more prepared for UM than an other team. UM simply has a tougher go than any other team in the conference when it comes to getting OSU's best (and NDs, and PSUs, and MSUs, etc). I had hoped Meyer's obsession with beating UM would leave with him, but Day has done a good job of maintaining that culture.
How did the attitude from Lloyd Carr to Hoke go from "anything can happen in this rivalry" to "Michigan can't sneak up on OSU so we shouldnt expect to beat them"? I don't understand.
It is no secret that Michigan plays some of their worst and most mistake prone football of the season in their biggest game of the season, and it never used to be that way. It's been that way since Harbaugh's first game against them.
Yet a completely overmatched and downright bad 2013 team had a chance to beat undefeated OSU easily playing the best game of the year. But I thought Michigan can't sneak up on them?
Anyone who thinks all it is is talent difference and not mental is not living in reality.
This is such whiny bullshit. Their academic reputation in the last 20 years has actually increased substantially as has their football program's reputation.