Final Four does not feature a single consensus top 30 recruit…
🤔
So what you're saying is I should bet my life savings into UConn winning it all?
Done
Maybe, but UConn is also by far the youngest team. They only have one senior in the starting lineup. I'd put some good money on SDSU and their experience.
Yeah, but you should probably bet on UCONN having a bad team next year.
It’s the new moneyball. Get players that stay for more than a year. Lower ranked guys that can play as a team. Sort of anti-NBA.
March 26th, 2023 at 10:48 PM ^
I've said this for 2 years now...I think that + using the transfer portal to get the top end guys on your roster is the way to go.
Give me an older team with 2-3 solid upper classes who are battle tested and toss in a couple of transfer portal guys who are fringe NBA players looking to showcase their talent before heading to the combine...and I think you've got a great shot.
For example, how far do you think a team of...
- C: Jordan Morgan (Sr.)
- PF: Pete Nance (Gr.)
- SF: Chaundee Brown (Sr.)
- SG: Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (Sr.)
- PG: Eli Brooks (5th)
...gets in the tournament?
(I realize no one is really starting 5 seniors, the point is you have 0 NBA rotation guys, a couple transfers who might get a 2-way contract and a couple of Europe guys)
I think a team that has starters of that talent level, plus a solid bench is in the Final 4 right now.
I also think that team would be way more fun, because 3 of the guys would've spent 4+ years in your program.
March 27th, 2023 at 12:30 AM ^
What are the ages for the starting 5 on each final 4 team? I would bet on the oldest team
March 27th, 2023 at 12:30 AM ^
Double post
SDSU is starting 3 seniors and 2 juniors.
March 26th, 2023 at 10:49 PM ^
A younger Beilein would crush it in college bball right now.
Ironically, part of why he left was that he didn’t like the direction college hoops was going at the time, but in retrospect he could have built a monster at UM if he stayed.
He could have, yes, but I think it was the fact that he'd have to re-recruit his whole roster every year (among others) that made him think it wasn't worth the effort. He COULD so it, but it wouldn't have been easy or enjoyable for him, was my read on the situation.
A younger Beilein might have been more willing to recruit like that, though. I know that as I get older I have less patience for certain parts of my job, and I certainly don't blame Beilein for getting tired of recruiting.
That's some good coaching then. Maybe there's room at Michigan for one of them.
These are Burger King all americans
Long John Silver's maybe. I feel like BK is too mainstream.
March 26th, 2023 at 10:33 PM ^
Carl's Jr
March 26th, 2023 at 11:35 PM ^
Arby's
I’ll say it: Top ranked (especially 5 star) recruits are mostly fools gold these days as it pertains what you get from them in college.
It is. Even the “can’t miss, next LeBron” guys never seem to cut it. Zion: Elite Eight. Wiggins: 2nd Rd. Jabari: 1st Rd.
In the last 20 years I can only think of 2 occasions where the obvious best player out of HS came and dominated College Basketball enough to win a title. Carmelo and Anthony Davis
I think Jahlil Okafor was the #1 player coming out of HS the year Duke won the title but yeah, it's pretty rare. Admittedly, it feels like a lot more of the top-rated guys coming out of HS recently have gone to more random programs than before - Cade Cunningham went to Okie St., Ben Simmons went to LSU, James Wiseman went to Memphis, etc. Carmelo winning a title at Syracuse is crazier because that wasn't a team full of stars compared to AD at UK, where he had basically a starting lineup of top-20 HS players.
Okafor came as a package with Tyus Jones, who played like he was 30 even at 18. I think that helped.
They all leave before they are experienced enough to be a huge difference maker.
The hype surrounding Emoni Bates. He can score buckets for lowly Eastern. But now he may not even be a 1st rd pick.
Is there a top 100 recruit playing in the SDSU-FAU game?
According to Sports-Reference, SDSU has six top 100 players, same as UConn. Miami has 5.
Close, but no, according to the 247 Composite.
Jaedon LeDee (SDSU) was #103, Jalen Gaffney (FAU) was #105, and Matt Bradley (SDSU) was #112.
Interestingly enough, none of those guys are at their original school. LeDee started at OSU, Gaffney at UConn, and Bradley began at Cal.
So, that game will not feature any plans that are even expected to be drafted by the NBA.
I'm not sure if my view is "popular" - but, the NBA's recruiting practices have changed the college landscape significantly - and, it's something I don't care for.
Let the NBA draft high schoolers into the G-League, and - if a player commits to a college team, then - that commitment should be for two (or more) years.
My view is - it would increase the quality of play in college, allow players to develop, permit teams to generate a chemistry, and - be more enjoyable to the college fans. And, if a player / prospect doesn't want to "deal" with college - go right to the G League.
Let them draft the rights to the player and when they want him on the roster call them up. No need to go disappear on a Iowa City G league roster.
I don’t think a team having 4 top 50 recruits is some underdog recruiting story.
Also the fact that this is notable is just more proof you generally need elite guys to win a championship
Thanks, logged in to say something like this. And some noodles will be certain that this is proof that Juwan shouldn't recruit promising or highly-touted players, which is not just counter-intuitive but ridiculous. That said, it will be all about team building--as ever--with an eye to the present AND the future, with the job made both harder and less predictable because of chaotic, emerging, continually changing conditions.
Yeah, especially since last year's Final 4 featured Duke, UNC, KU, and Villanova, who had a combined 16 top-50 recruits.
March 27th, 2023 at 10:00 AM ^
I hear you, but the emerging stats we have on draft and G league trends is changing at a rapid rate and the trend lines indicate that it is becoming increasingly difficult to hold onto even "an average player" with NBA size. Even if you get one year of a star player, the damage done to roster juggling will set you back. What did Duke, UNC, KU and Villanova do this year? Pretty much collapsed because the cupboard was more or less empty. And those are the BLUE BLOODS who probably had a bunch of assembled talent.
The next tier of top schools maybe get 1 or 2 great recruits, shake up their entire roster, watch a couple tall clumsy freshman with quick release points kick the ball around for 30 games and say goodbye.
Many fans don't really want a guaranteed 1 year experiment with bad basketball.
It can be really bad losing basketball. That is all I am saying.
March 27th, 2023 at 10:16 AM ^
Last years final four was UNC, Duke, Kansas, and Villanova. The last decade of college basketball titles includes Louisville under Pitino, UCONN, North Carolina, Villanova, and Kansas in addition to Baylor and Virginia. The idea that one weird year of evidence, where the favorite is still a team with four national championships and 4 top 50 recruits on the roster and another team is incredibly senior laden because of the covid year anomaly somehow is worth more value than the previous decade just doesn't make sense and is the definition of recency bias.
Put another way, if your takeaway from the first time in 20 years a the final four features a team without a top 30 recruit is that its proof you don't want to recruit top 30 players you and I have very different definitions of what constitutes a trend.
I think this tournament is going to be remembered as the most outlying of them all. First 3 time newcomers to the Final Four since 1970. No #1s in the Elite Eight. Etc.
There have been some wacky tournaments with seeding upsets, but its usually some Power 5 school getting hot (UNC last year, Kentucky/UConn in the 2014 final). Butler's 2010 and 2011 tournament runs are memorable but the other teams around them were Power 5 squads.
UConn will probably win it and could be a double digit favorite over the SDSU/FAU winner--when was last time that happened? Regardless, a really fun tournament with the games and results.
I'll take SDSU over UConn.
The Big East might not be considered a 'Power 5' conference but they're one of the best basketball conferences. They've won 7 national titles in basketball since 1999.
Rooting for Dutcher at SDSU. He was probably in line to eventually become coach here before Fisher was kicked out.
March 26th, 2023 at 11:34 PM ^
Keep him in mind in case Juwan doesnt work out? 🤔
Eh, at 63 he's getting a bit long in the tooth.
I don’t think I will be watching that.
What an obnoxious time to be a college bball coach.
Recruit a McD AA? You’re screwed cause he’ll leave after a mediocre year. Develop guys at the high major level? You’re screwed cause they’ll leave after a decent year. Develop guys at the mid major level? You’re screwed cause they’ll up-transfer. Identify a diamond in the rough guy at a lower end high major without resources? Same. They’ll up-transfer to a school with NIL money.
No wonder Beilein left.
I love Beilein as much as the next guy around here.
But Beilein made millions in college basketball and left for better deals how many times?
Thank you. Every time he got an offer to go to a better school to advance his career he made that choice, no matter what he told the kids he was recruiting. He broke promises and did what he needed to do to achieve what was best for him. It doesn’t make him evil but there are no saints among college coaches. Every single coach who complains about players leaving for a bigger program or more money is a hypocrite.
So does every other coach. It's how the game is played. He mainly left UM because of all the players going to the NBA early.
March 27th, 2023 at 10:20 AM ^
That was exactly my point, its what every coach does. Which is why its stupid to hold the kids to a different standard than the coaches. Beilein went from Richmond to West Virginia to Michigan to the NBA because that is what was best for him, the individual. What was best for the schools he was leaving wasn't a factor. That is no different than Poole going to the NBA or even Frankie transferring to ASU. Its the exact same mindset of prioritizing the individual. And there is nothing wrong with that, I will also leave my job for a better opportunity and the fact that it makes my friends jobs harder for a couple of months wouldn't stop me either. But nobody shits on me or Beilein for that decision and plenty of people shit on guys like Frankie and Jett and Houstan.
What it does have is 4 coaches who have lived and breathed college hoops for a long time.
Dan Hurley is 50 and Dusty May 47.
Kind of amazing that Dan Hurley seems like a good coach, but his brother is just aweful.
Which means Dan Hurley has been breathing hoops for 50 years and 9 months.
That's a long time.
It's sort of crazy year for any number of years - last year you had a final with two of the bluest blood programs (KU and UNC) and a final four had Duke and Villanova as well.
This year felt weird from the jump - UNC was a super-weak #1 and nobody really looked elite. UConn was criminally underseeded and per the fancy stats they've been a top-10 team for basically the whole year but this feels like it'll be an outlier of a year moreso than a shift to mid-major-ish teams winning the national title.
But it has been a really interesting tourney for that and I honestly don't know who UConn will beat for another random title we all sort of don't believe happened in a decade.
UCONN lost 5 of 6 in a really weird stretch but before and after they have been absolutely dominating. 25-2 the rest of the season with most being tournament worthy teams.