Expected Yardage Margin or "Why Michigan's defense is even better than you think"
Not my stats but found it interesting and we like stats. It's a bye week and we need food.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/9r0r3k/expected_yardage_margin_or_why_michigans_defense/
October 24th, 2018 at 1:51 PM ^
Pure catnip to any Wolverine
![tmg-article_tall[1].jpg](/sites/default/files/users/user96084/tmg-article_tall%5B1%5D.jpg)
October 24th, 2018 at 4:54 PM ^
You know, two of my cats are fucking catnip junkies of this caliber. I need to get photos for OT season so I can do a thread that nobody will read.
October 24th, 2018 at 5:01 PM ^
I'll read it...I love other people's cats!
October 24th, 2018 at 11:18 PM ^
There's a photo somewhere of one of my cats staring wild eyed at the camera on a catnip bender with it all around him.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:14 PM ^
Big fan of fancystats that work in Michigan's favor, but as pointed out in the comments below the table, "EYM" doesn't account for pace.
Michigan's defense is obviously excellent, but is off the charts good in this metric aided by our slow pace of play. Likely a reason why our generally efficient offense carries a score in the neighborhood of Syracuse and Wake Forest. If you're basically counting gross yards, we're gonna be on the lower end of the spectrum, both offensively and defensively.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:17 PM ^
Howeva, App State is very close to passing Ohio State in these stats, so I like them.
October 24th, 2018 at 4:00 PM ^
Also, as pointed out in the comments below, EYM is not actually opponent adjusted as it doesn't take into account your opponents' opponents. This statistic counts a yard against Michigan the same as a yard against Rutger the same as a yard against MSU.
If you run up 600 yards on Rutger and 100 yards on Michigan, the numbers would say you average 350 YPG. This would work out to 350 - (334 - 387.4 +410.9) = O-Margin = 39.5.
If someone else put 350 yards on MSU and 250 yards on Michigan, the numbers would say you average 300 YPG. This would work out to 300 - (287.5 - 387.4 +410.9) = O-Margin = 36
I'm more impressed by the second team, despite the lower O-Margin.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:25 PM ^
UConn.....woof. Who have they even played?
October 24th, 2018 at 2:41 PM ^
There's someone worse than Rutger? Our D vs Rutger O may not be suitable for children.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:49 PM ^
Very interesting find Comrade. Only issue is because our FG kicking is a dung show right now, yardage margin doesn't necessarily translate into scoring margin. Hopefully we can get that fixed.
October 24th, 2018 at 5:17 PM ^
Sorry to change the subject but I don't think this question is new-thread worthy and I imagine its been covered...
Does anyone know if Nordin's missed FG against MSU was blocked? It sort of looked like it might have been based on both the trajectory and an MSU player having his hand near the ball's path, but I don't know whether this was ever confirmed or not.
October 24th, 2018 at 6:06 PM ^
This shows how good our defense truly is in fact. Our offense doesn't significantly outgain averages, yet out defense blows averages out of the water.
October 24th, 2018 at 7:49 PM ^
Michigan plays slow so their offense looks bad and their defense looks better. It also doesnt factor out garbage time. Also almost every team they played got half their yards on late 4th quarter drives when the game was over, the backups were in, and the refs decided to call even less offensive holding than they usually do against Michigan. Those 75 hornibrook passing yards on the last drive were because they ignored a ridiculous hold on winovich's replacement on 4th and 10...and again, backups and game's already over.
October 24th, 2018 at 9:35 PM ^
Lots of good threads today. I never comment anymore. Wish I could upvote.