Expected Value/Probability question re: hypothetical Countess Pick vs. Safety
While watching the highlights from the Ohio game, I started to wonder if Countess had intercepted that ball he had his hands on and returned it X number of yards, at what point would it have been mathematically proper to decline the penalty that resulted in the safety? With Brian always talking about how you should go for it on 4th down more frequently than most coaches are comfortable with doing, it seemed like a hypothetical this board might find interesting.
It strikes me that Countess would have to return the ball to somewhere inside the 20 in order to decline the holding penalty in the endzone. 2 points and an extra posession seems like it would be more valuable than a field goal, but less valuable than a touchdown.
What are your thoughts on what yard line Countess would have to return the ball to before you would/should decline the holding in the endzone penalty?
November 28th, 2011 at 4:06 AM ^
Without looking at any advanced stats, unless taking the penalty actually takes points off the board, i'd rather take the extra possession along with two points, rather than a better shot at 3-6/7 points. Especially with an offense as good as ours is, and a punt from the 20 rather than a traditional kickoff, we'd already have a relatively short field. Taking two points off the board for potential field position doesn't make sense to me.
November 28th, 2011 at 11:46 AM ^
EDIT Im an idiot
November 28th, 2011 at 4:51 AM ^
I don't get why this is even being asked. If free points are available you take them, especially if you get the ball back with those free points.
November 28th, 2011 at 4:58 AM ^
To take the most extreme example, if he returns it to the 1 you take the safety still? No chance.
November 28th, 2011 at 5:31 AM ^
The way I look at it, you're almost guaranteed 3 pts from the 1, with very good shot at 7. You get the safety and you are guaranteed 2 pts, with an okay shot at 5 and a not improbably shot at 9. If you have faith in your O I say you go for the 9.
While I imagine expected values will say give away the points, remember that expected values are calculated with an average offense against an average defense. I wonder how those calculations change when taking into account our offense against their defense.
November 28th, 2011 at 5:55 AM ^
1st and goal from the 1 has to be 95% or more to get a touchdown so I think "very good shot" is an understatement. Your last sentence raise a good point as well as another issue. You would have to factor in how terrible...err average-ish Gibbons is. The offense would have to get to the 25/26 to match his career long.
November 28th, 2011 at 7:16 AM ^
While his struggles last year were painful, how clutch was that kick? Hitting his career long in the biggest kick of his life? Especially after last season, that kick puts him up there with Brabbs. And because of Denard's Harmon-esque performance, he isn't getting enough love.
But yea his range and accuracy (I think that's his first made kick from past the forty) certainly make it tougher to give up a safety. He's been somewhat solid inside the 40 though I think.
November 28th, 2011 at 12:13 PM ^
Yea he was so clutch and we needed him to be.
November 28th, 2011 at 6:41 AM ^
Expected values may not be the best guide to use when you have an offense like ours (above average) going against the scoring defense of Ohio (also above average, although statistically worse than ours). That alone changes the sorts of plays you will call and the points you would be willing to take or concede. In this instance, I think you take the two points and the extra possession.
November 28th, 2011 at 6:54 AM ^
you only take points (FG or less) off the board unless the penalty moves you closer within FG range. So in this case, if the return was back to say the 30 (Gibbons season long), along with a 1st down you take it.
But you have to remember, this is Gibbons who couldnt hit a 20 yarder last year so it is a roll of the dice. Next year with WIle, you let him kick from the 50.
November 28th, 2011 at 7:15 AM ^
I think you take the points in all circumstances unless you're sitting on the one or two yard line. Even if you start at the 5 that's not a guaranteed touchdown by any stretch and there's a good chance you end up settling for a field goal. If you take the safety, you're also getting the ball in good field position after the punt.
Unless you're all but assured a touchdown- 2 points and the ball in good field position is the right call- not just in respect to potential points, but also maintaining possession and keeping them in bad field position- IMO
Also- those 2 points were massively important down the stretch. Making them score 4 instead of 3 was monumental in the end and derailed their final drive.
November 28th, 2011 at 8:28 AM ^
From Enjoy Life's Turnover series, he has an expected point value from everywhere on the field. The EV from the 50 (where we started after the safety) is 2.59 (+2 for the safety for a total of 4.59), the EV from the Opponent 20 is 4.20. Closer than I expected.
November 28th, 2011 at 9:28 AM ^
Basic coaching 101: Never take your own points off the board. It's as simple as that. Only reason to decline the penalty is if the pass was intercepted and returned for a touchdown. Other than that happening, there is no other situation where it make sense to decline it, even if the ball was returned to the 1/2 yard line.
November 28th, 2011 at 10:58 AM ^
November 28th, 2011 at 8:17 PM ^
Never said I should be a coach, nor did I ever say this is what I would do. Just stating the fact that the rule of thumb in coaching is that you never take points off the board. It's not that hard of a concept to understand. In blackjack you're never under any circumstance to hit once you've pulled a hard 17, but it doesn't mean no one's ever done it successfully.
That being said, Bo and Carr did make decisions that nullified scores in a few famous occassions and it worked. It doesn't change the fact that it's considered a huge risk and is generally frowned upon...unless it pays off.
November 28th, 2011 at 9:57 AM ^
Yeah unless Countess returned it for a Touchdown I don't think I would decline the penalty. Free points are free points, and we would have a shot to go ahead by 9 points
November 28th, 2011 at 10:20 AM ^
The breakeven value is a return that you gets you to the red zone. An average return of a post-safety free kick is to the 40, worth 2.28. That plus the 2 points is 4.48 points total. An interception giving you a first and ten at the opponent 20 is worth 4.5 points on average. Not a very likely scenario but a good return could justify giving back the 2 points.
One caveat is that this is for average offenses. The better your offense is, the less sense it makes to give back the points, because you can probably score anyway. For it to make sense for Michigan it would almost need to be a touchdown. For Penn St it might make more sense to take interception from the 40 or so in because even a sixty yard drive is a stretch.
November 28th, 2011 at 12:15 PM ^
Mathlete to the rescue. Good stuff.
November 28th, 2011 at 11:36 AM ^
(we) BEAT OHIO.
November 28th, 2011 at 11:38 AM ^
It'd definitely have to be a long return, because one of the benefits of a safety (besides the two points) is that you usually get good field position after the free kick. We started the subsequent drive at the 50.