ESPN Grades Michigan's 2018 class at a B+

Submitted by reddogrjw on

Michigan Wolverines

Grade: B+ | National rank: 20
Even without the notoriety of previous years, Michigan continues to stockpile talent and fill key needs. The signing of ESPN 300 signal-caller Joe Milton following the news that former Ole Miss starter Shea Patterson would transfer to Ann Arbor is huge. Michigan went into Texas and signed the best tight end in the state in ESPN 300 Mustapha Muhammad. In-state ESPN 300 defensive end Aidan Hutchinson and four-star offensive tackle Ryan Hayes have high ceilings. The Peach State continues to be great for Michigan, with safety Myles Sims and ESPN 300 running back Christian Turner. Signing ESPN 300 linebacker Cameron McGrone was also big. Lone Star State twins Gemon Green and German Green will bring 6-foot-2 frames to the cornerback position. Versatile athlete Michael Barrett out of the Peach State could end up on either side of the ball.

 

 

Justibro

February 8th, 2018 at 10:06 AM ^

If we would have had several more offensive lineman that had solid ratings j feel like a lot of us would be much happier with this class. we all are just over focused, and well so, on offensive line

ijohnb

February 8th, 2018 at 10:26 AM ^

don't particularly need offensive lineman in bulk right now, what we need is impact players.  I think both of our lineman in this class are going to be solid two-year starter-ish type guys who are adequate.  But "adequate" is only going to go so far.  We need that guy, and we just can't seem to land him.  Of all the things I expected with JMFH, difficulty recruiting on the O-line was certainly not one of them.

4roses

February 8th, 2018 at 10:22 AM ^

What Justibro wrote is certainly true, but a more accurate assessemnt is that in today's world of instant analysis and hot takes there is no grey area. It is all black and white (figuratively), win or lose, hero or goat, genius or idiot. And when it comes to grading a recruiting class there is only Pass/Fail. Because we aspire to be one of the best teams, our Pass/Fail criteria is basically A's are Pass, all else is Fail. I for one would argue that in the real world there is grey area.         

JonnyHintz

February 8th, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^

We have plenty of high ranked OL on the roster. Adding more in this class wasn’t going to change anything. What they need is for a few of them to actually develop and pan out. Offensive line is one of the hardest positions for scouts to gauge. So getting a few more high ranked guys is pretty irrelevant. Some of the best linemen at Michigan in recent memory weren’t all that highly ranked.

trueblueintexas

February 8th, 2018 at 12:13 PM ^

Two of your sentences contradict each other:

"Offensive line is one of the hardest positions for scouts to gauge. So getting a few more high ranked guys is pretty irrelevant."

If it is true OL is hard to gauge, thus increasing the likelihood they will not work out, then getting a few more highly ranked guys on an annual basis is exremely relevant.

Getting any guy becomes extremely relevant. I think that is the greatest concern, not only are there very few highly ranked guys, there's only one true lineman in the whole class of any ranking. 

JonnyHintz

February 9th, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^

Except the “getting highly ranked guys” part is what’s IRRELEVANT due to the difficulty in accurately gauging OL. You pretty much just need bodies. Outside of some elite players in high school, everyone else is pretty much a crapshoot. Last year, Michigan took 6 players who are on the OL (7 if you include Hall, but he transferred). Michigan took another 3 in the 2016 class. OL really wasn’t a huge position of need. OL numbers aren’t down, the players there are just incredibly young, so the starting caliber wasn’t there yet. That’s why Michigan was able to take a few projects (Mayfield and Hayes both need to put on significant size, Hayes needs to learn the position better) and then target a few high end prospects (NPF) but it wasn’t a case where Michigan needed to go out and sign five or six offensive linemen capable of playing right away. Ultimately, that was the case with the rest of this class. Michigan brought in so much talent across the board in the 2016/17 classes, that they were able to take fliers on a couple of guys with a lot of potential but that weren’t to the point where it really affected their ranking.

Brimley

February 8th, 2018 at 12:26 PM ^

And some of the highest ranked weren't our best.  For example, Kalis is a great Wolverine but went from "the most college ready lineman we've got in years" to a guy that Brian consistently dinged in the UFRs.  Let's hold judgement on Harbaugh's OL recruiting for a couple years until we see just how good Ruiz, Onwenu, Bredesen, Steuber, etc. etc. etc. become.

BeatIt

February 9th, 2018 at 9:16 AM ^

really shouldnt be that hard with all the camps these guys go to. i know some programs make it a policy before offering certain positions that they have to see them at their camps. all power 5 schools have a summer camps  they use to evaluate prospects. OSU wont offer QB's or OL before seeing them perform, i'm sure there a few exceptions. Its probably  because there are more busts or non contributors @ those 2 positions at higher rate than all the other positions.Players love it because they get 1 on1 time with big time coaches at the camps and dont forget the swag bags players get at camps.some camp swag bags rival those at bowl games.

JonnyHintz

February 9th, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^

But it is difficult to gauge. For many reasons. For starters, at a lot of these camps, these offensive linemen are just flat out bigger and stronger than everyone. They push people around with little need for proper technique. That doesn’t work at the college level. Then it goes to coaching. Most of these offensive linemen haven’t been properly taught in high school. They don’t have proper bend, hand usage, they don’t know how to pull or pickup a stunt. In high school and in camps, it’s usually simple. Block the guy in front of you. It becomes INCREDIBLY more complicated when you get to college. You don’t really know how good a kid is going to be until he actually gets to college and gets coaching. Another part of it is projection. Ryan Hayes is 6’7” 252 lbs. He’s also ranked as a 4* OT. Obviously he isn’t going to play tackle at 252 lbs. he’s going to need to put on at least 45-50 lbs. Now the difficult part when scouting these kids, is trying to figure out how that added weight will affect the kid. Is he going to even be ABLE to put on that weight? Is he going to be able to adequately balance his muscle:fat ratio while adding 59 lbs? Is the weight going to affect his speed? Is it going to affect his mobility? His footwork? How do you accurately project all of that? (Answer: you don’t. It’s a shot in the dark) No offense, but it is people like you that don’t understand what actually goes into all of this stuff that cause the biggest ruckus when a lower ranked kid gets an offer or a 3* commits. Sometimes, those 3* guys are just better football players. Those 4* and 5* guys may have more potential. They may have more raw ability. They’re ranked higher because they have the potential to be incredibly good. But really, none of that matters. It’s all about whether or not they can put it all together. Ryan Hayes has the potential to be a really good tackle if he is able to put on the needed weight and his body responds properly to adding 50 lbs... or it could all go wrong and he’ll never see the field and there will be countless 3* OL that would have made a greater impact. But that’s the issue with the majority of fans. Not just with our fanbase, but all college fans. They don’t look at the actual player. They don’t look at his abilities. They don’t look at his faults. They don’t look at what the kid actually needs to do in order to make an impact. They just see the number of stars next to his name and base their projections solely off of that.

The Baughz

February 8th, 2018 at 10:16 AM ^

Even though the class is subpar by Michigan standards it’s still pretty good. A lot of programs would kill for a top 20 class. The problem is losing 5 games and missing out on OL. I know its Michigan and they should never finish below 10-15 but it happens. I’m not thrilled with the class but let’s not act like it just finished in the 30s or 40s. If Anderson chooses UM over Texas and Shea is eligible then I think most of us will forget about this.

Red is Blue

February 8th, 2018 at 11:08 AM ^

Not relevant to your point, but the reference got me interested.  I looked at the class of 2010 (I think that is the one to which you refer).  That class had 27 members.  Because of sheer numbers, a class of 27 would tend to be higher ranked.  The 2010 class also included Demar Dorsey near the top and he never made it to campus.  Not much production from that group as a whole.  Lots of names that did nothing.
 
4 stars
 
Cullen Christian
Devin Gardner
Demar Dorsey
Marvin Robinson
Richard Ash
Ken Wilkins
 
3 stars 
 
Josh Furman
Jerald Robinson
Davion Rogers
Christian Pace
Terry Talbott
Austin White
Jibreel Black
Carvin Johnson
Ricardo Miller
Conelius Jones
Jordan Paskorz
Drew Dileo
Jake Ryan
Will Hagerup
Stephen Hopkins
Terrence Talbott
Antonio Kinard
D.J. Williamson
Jeremy Jackson
Courtney Avery
Ray Vinopal (2 star on Rivals)
 
 
 
Lets hope the 2018 class fares better.

rob f

February 8th, 2018 at 9:48 PM ^

but the entire fifth when I got home. Other than Jake Ryan, none of them were standouts and only a small handful from that class saw meaningful playing time for us. Devin's career was stunted by bad coaching, poor pass protection, and bouncing between QB and WR. Avery, Black, Dileo, Hagerup, Jackson...and that's essentially it for on-field contributors in that group. If that list was 17, so am I.

JonnyHintz

February 8th, 2018 at 11:33 AM ^

It also says something about how well he’s doing that an 8-5 season with the youngest team in America and you lose both your top WR and starting QB is a reason for people to scream at the top of their lungs. At the end of the day, all things considered, if the floor for a Harbaugh coached team is 8-5, I’m okay with that. If they have too 8 classes in back to back years. A slide down to a top 20 class isn’t a huge deal, especially when the next class is looking like an early bet to be top 10 as well. People need to just relax and look at the bigger picture here.

evenyoubrutus

February 8th, 2018 at 11:54 AM ^

What about 2014? And what's more important to me is attrition. If you altered some of those classes during the Rodriguez and Hoke and late Carr years to represent who was still left by their junior seasons, I'm sure that figure would look much different. I know every program has attrition but it's been unusually high at Michigan for quite some time. If the majority of these guys stick around it will be a more productive class than many of the last 12 years or so.

evenyoubrutus

February 8th, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^

Did you even read my comment? What do you think I'm rationalizing? How impactful is a top 100 recruit who never plays a down? And I find it to be a complete waste of time to split hairs over the rankings of classes that are within a few spots of each other from different years. You seem to be the one who is rationalizing.

Arb lover

February 8th, 2018 at 12:06 PM ^

Classes with more recruits get ranked higher. Michigan is returning so many players (and starters), and lost so few players after last year, that they just don't need that many recruits to begin with. 

Most of the beef here on MgoBlog is with the lack of closure on the real impact players in key positions that Michigan needs. However, if Shea becomes eligible and if Anderson arrives, the main impact needs might be met for 2018, and that to me for next year's result is more important than a 5 star OT who still might not be ready to start against ND, or a 5 star QB who just won't have the scheme grasped well enough by season start. 

4th phase

February 8th, 2018 at 1:43 PM ^

Yes class ranking is too dependent on size especially as you go further back (I think they changed the formula). The important thing to look at is average player rating. Our average rating compares favorably with Oklahoma's classes that comprise their RS seniors, seniors, Juniors and sophomores (freshman are ranked higher) from this year's playoff team. The point is you can win a lot of games with a class like this. Unfortunately our conference is much more difficult than Oklahoma's but what can you do. Of course we have to get exponentially greater qb play than this past season.

StraightDave

February 8th, 2018 at 10:39 AM ^

But not 30? Got it. 20 is not fine for the highest paid coach in college football. 20 is fine for a school like UNC or Miss. St. Harbaugh gets paid a shit-ton of money to compete for national championships not top 20 finishes.

evenyoubrutus

February 8th, 2018 at 10:54 AM ^

Yep. Even Jim Tressel had a couple of poor classes in the early years. Most programs do not sign top 10 classes year after year. If this had been 2 or 3 years in a row then it would be a huge concern, but with the cyclical nature of recruiting this will happen once every few years. Michigan has so many 1st and 2nd year players that they weren't going to just fire off as many offers as possible and try to squeeze a million guys into this class. They had a handful of good recruits they targeted, and unfortunately they didn't land most of them. If 2019 turns out the same way then it is time to panic. But if 2019 turns out to be as good as '16 or '17 I think we will be glad that they saved some scholarships.

Double-D

February 8th, 2018 at 6:38 PM ^

I think this class is underrated. Yes a couple more lineman and a DT would have been nice but this class has future big time contributors in several spots. Mayfield, McGrone, Hutch, and Muhammad can be All Big Ten type players. Watch out for Welshof he is an athletic freak. Add in Patterson and combine that with the two classes we just landed and this team has enough talent to compete with ANYONE. This is a critical year to win on the field to build on. Everyone knows that.