Easing Coronavirus Restrictions
This topic came up yesterday and was somewhat of a shit show with much energy spent discussing Nazi Germany. I am hopeful the linked article https://apple.news/A5xFEHnsySqKwrnfo0zLJmA
might stimulate more constructive debate. While the article comes from the Post it prominently features a proposal from the American Enterprise Institute. While the proposal was largely authored by former Trump officials, it was also reviewed by folks from Hopkins. It outlines a set if phases and criteria for meeting those phases that could be used to ease restrictions.
‘With most of the nation now in phase one of the epidemic, the goal should be a sharp increase in hospital critical care beds and an increase of testing to 750,000 people a week to track the epidemic — a number Gottlieb said could be achieved in the next week or two. For a state to move to phase two, it should see a sustained reduction in new cases for at least 14 days, and its hospitals need to be able to provide care w i thout being overwhelmed.
“The reason we set it at 14 days is that’s the incubation period of the virus,” said Rivers of Johns Hopkins. “That way you know the downward trend is certain and not because of a holiday or blip or some other delay in reported cases.”
States that have moved into phase two would begin gradually lifting social distancing measures and opening schools and businesses, while increasing surveillance. The key goals thereafter would be accelerating the development of new treatments and deploying tests to determine who has recovered from infection with some immunity and could rejoin the workforce.
Phase 3 occurs when the nation has a vaccine or drugs to treat covid-19 in place and the government launches mass vaccinations. Phase 4 involves rebuilding the nation’s capacity to deal with the next pandemic by building up its scientific and public health infrastructure.”
To me it makes a great deal of sense. I have a perhaps naive hope that people on mgoblog who think they are on very different sides of the debate may have more common ground than they thought.
March 29th, 2020 at 10:29 AM ^
#teamquarantine4ever
March 29th, 2020 at 10:34 AM ^
Now why did you have to go political Magnus?
March 29th, 2020 at 11:31 AM ^
Now remember, kids...
I'd love to see a poll about this. I can almost guarantee that 90+% of everyone on this board who is gung-ho about quarantine restrictions and happy to have them last for months has BOTH (a) no kids under 18, and (b) a job that lets him work from home with no risk of layoff. Or, I suppose, is retired.
Likewise, the vast majority of those who are desperate for restrictions to be lifted (a) has kids under 18 and is losing his mind, and/or (b) has lost their livelihood or is at risk of it.
That is definitely an interesting aspect of this. I’d guess that a poll of working Americans age 30-50 (relatively lower C19 risk) would show they’d rather risk infection than lose their job. I’d have to really think about it, but give the published percentages in my demographic I’d probably make that same decision if really faced with it. Not that real-life decisions are that clean or binary (there is a demand side of the market that matters), but it does underscore the pressure that will grow as “stay at home” orders are extended and unemployment continues to rise.
I’m pretty sure no one is happy to have quarantines last for months.
Other factors that may have a strong influence on people’s opinions include being high risk and/or having someone who is high risk in their household as well as being a medical professional on the front lines.
I'd definitely rather get the infection than lose my job. I can't believe how there has been zero public discourse on the economic impacts or our decisions. People are going to be thrown into poverty, lose their health insurance, kids will go hungry, businesses will be destroyed and retirements delayed for years. All of this to save some old folks who would be too dumb to self isolate in the middle of a pandemic that effects them almost exclusively? Sweden has it right. Tell the old people to go the fuck home and let everyone else get on with it.
If only it were that simple...
Its not just who lives and who dies...there are people in all age categories that are getting dreadfully sick and ending up in the hospital. Might not die but being in the hospital with a tube in your chest aint a holiday...its scary as hell. And it jams up the hospitals and puts a massive strain on the doctors and nurses.
Its also damn uncomfortable/scary to go to work and wonder if the cough you hear in the cubicle next to yours might be THAT cough...people are going to lose there minds on just the rumour that Johnny went home sick with a cough and fever. Whole businesses will shut for days/weeks/forever when it goes around the office..and if someone dies...and someone will die...X inc will be in a world of hurt.
Its just an ugly set of choices...
You sir are a selfish moron. Congrats! I am sure that your parents are proud.
Btw. That is who you are in favor of killing statistically. Your parents.
Your parents and first responders. The detroit pd has lost 6, the last count that i saw, probably more by now; officers in the last 2 days. One of whom was 38.
There has been an abundant conversation about the economic toll of this virus and the responses to it on this board, in any media outlet available, among real health officials, and at any level of government.
Your real problem is that those discussions have not ended in the results that you would prefer.
If you are so smart and benevolent. Run for office. Make the change that you want. Local mayor, state rep, us senator.. Run for president, both candidates favor the steps being taken. But you wont, youll just complain on a message board.
Grow the fuck up. Life is not all about you. There are over 6 billion people on this rock and youre just some insignificant turd. Just like the rest of us. The sooner you learn this, the sooner your meager existence will get better.
80,000 people died from influenza in the winter of 2017-2018 in this country. Look it up. Did we all cower inside for four months because of that? Go 2 trillion into debt? Throw millions into poverty and off of their health insurance. This is a hysterical overreaction brought to you by the same media machine that gave us "IRAQ WMD" and "HALLOWEEN CANDY WITH RAZOR BLADES" and "PEOPLE WITH ROAD RAGE WILL KILL YOU." My parents aren't morons so they're staying inside. Like all people over 50 should do.
March 29th, 2020 at 10:11 PM ^
You should probably read a little more about the Spanish Flu. One of the prime examples of using social distancing (a comparison of how St Louis and Philadelphia handled it). St Louis used social distancing and had many less deaths).
Many deaths is bad for the economy. We saw this during the Spanish Flu. Many companies had to shut down because so many workers were sick. This alo caused significant harm. There are no good choices here.
voluntarily shut things down and hope you can keep the mortality rate down because hospitals don’t get overcrowded or just it’s course and still have significant economic harm and more deaths.
You do realize the entire planet is shutting down, right? Do you think CNN reporting caused India to order a billion people to shelter in place? No. People much smarter than you are analyzing the science and the statistics all over the world and consistently reaching the same conclusions. I'm sure you think you are the smartest guy in every room you enter but perhaps you should have some humility on this one.
I'm not saying we shouldn't react differently than we did in 2017-2018. But for all of these people going into hero mode saying we need to do everything possible to prevent loss of life in the elderly, it's worth asking what you did in 2017-8 to prevent 80,000 deaths back then. There's a balance point between hysteria and do nothing. Everyone is in hysteria mode right now. It's preventing real rational conversation. Please feel free to volunteer any examples of what you all did back in 2017-8.
I'm gung-ho about social distancing.
I can work from home. I also have two kids under 18 in my house.
I've also got an uncle who is hours from dying from this thing.
March 29th, 2020 at 10:40 AM ^
Until we are showing major declines in cases I can’t see this happening. Even then, how many are willing to risk it?
March 29th, 2020 at 10:48 AM ^
I think that is what the plan envisions. ‘For a state to move to phase two, it should see a sustained reduction in new cases for at least 14 days, and its hospitals need to be able to provide care w i thout being overwhelmed.’ To make sure tge decline is real, a ribust testing system would need to be in place. ‘Increasing testing capacity to accommodate the ability to test everyone with symptoms and their close contacts.”
March 29th, 2020 at 10:55 AM ^
Exactly. We haven't even seen it spread to rural areas yet. They will be weeks, maybe months behind the bigger cities.
It's coming-it has doubled in the last two days here in Kansas. And even though crossing a county line is a bucket list, life-changing event out here in the provincial thinking capitol of the world it will likely get pretty bad.
March 29th, 2020 at 11:59 AM ^
Agreed, we're still not seeing much or any flattening of the curve right now
March 29th, 2020 at 12:10 PM ^
I think you misunderstood. They are saying that you would need to see a sustained reduction is new cases for 14 days before we could move to Phase 2. We haven't met that yet obviously (cases are still increasing, not decreasing) but that would be the standard that public health officials would use to determine when we can begin lifting restrictions.
I am. I have no income right now. FWIW I’m young with no underlying health issues and I’ve never smoked anything: juul, vape, weed, ecig. Nothing. So my lungs should be fine.
Glad to see Midukman prevail and the stupid idea in the OP’s article has now become just a stupid old idea.
March 29th, 2020 at 10:44 AM ^
What kind of idiot would bring up Nazi Germany right now
March 29th, 2020 at 10:50 AM ^
One who was perhaps stressed about all that was going on and wasn’t thinking about how the provocative nature of the example might distract from the actual worthwhile discussion he was trying to stimulate?
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March 29th, 2020 at 10:53 AM ^
Haha, indeed, although it was a textbook example of Godwin's Law
March 29th, 2020 at 11:46 AM ^
GVSU’s ex offensive coordinator.
March 29th, 2020 at 10:48 AM ^
In Wuhan they are just beginning to loosen restrictions now about 2-3 months after being the global epicenter of the virus. It will be an interesting study to see how they handle these changes and if they notice another spike in the coronavirus the second time around. Hopefully it gives the rest of the world a clearer picture on how to handle gatherings, and having daily life return to some normalcy. But then again, I’m hesitant to trust anything China claims.
March 29th, 2020 at 11:04 AM ^
Not sure what to believe coming out of China, I just read yesterday that they’re rioting in Wuhan:
March 29th, 2020 at 11:36 AM ^
Thats pretty crazy to see. The Chinese people have learned not to take their public protest lightly.
March 29th, 2020 at 11:57 AM ^
The real fatality count is almost definitely orders of magnitude larger than what the Chinese government is officially reporting ~3300. I’ve seen estimates as high as 40,000 dead in Wuhan alone. Horrific
March 29th, 2020 at 12:12 PM ^
There’s zero ambiguity about what to believe - everything they’re saying is a lie.
Not sure what they’re upset about. If they would stop with the unsanitary wet markets, we may not be in this position right now? They deserve every punishment and restriction they get.
So people without basic knowledge of disease spread risks try to engage in commerce and unfortunately get a new virus... so you’re saying they deserve this:
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/coronavirus-residents-welded-inside-their-own-home/
I guess we can agree to disagree.
I’m saying they didn’t adjust their behavior after H1N1 so I don’t feel bad that they were quarantined.
That's gonna cost ya some social credits
March 29th, 2020 at 10:49 AM ^
Approach makes a ton of sense to me. Also, I think once the general populace knows a critical mass of people who have tested positive and recovered, I think we will be dealing with a more broadly-aware population, as opposed to getting our news from our self-chosen sources. Not in any way trying to minimize the horror of this thing, or the tragedy of the many who have passed as a result of it.
Two of my three kids (20 and 22) have had it.
March 29th, 2020 at 10:58 AM ^
I have 5 family members in Oregon that have most likely contracted the virus. None were able to get tested, but docs told them that they most likely have it. Luckily, they are all young and healthy. Their message- "If this is Covid, it is HORRIBLE." They are not sensationalists and they all say its the worst sickness they've ever had. Scary.
March 29th, 2020 at 11:55 AM ^
My own doctor (here in MI) told me today that he probably has it - and said the same about its ferocity.
March 29th, 2020 at 12:11 PM ^
sorry to hear that.
I also live in Oregon and I can't believe this:
How is it possible that we only have this many resources available?
March 29th, 2020 at 10:49 AM ^
Idc how long quarantine lasts. We should only come out of our holes once it is safe to do so.
We should NOT put profits over people
March 29th, 2020 at 11:19 AM ^
This is an intellectually dishonest take. So in order to "save one life" we are going to sacrifice hundreds of thousands or millions of livlihoods? Millions could be unemployed in a month with no way to pay for food or shelter. Is it worth it if many of the people "saved from the virus" end up committing suicide? We need to to have healthy, able bodied people get back to work and if you are at risk, continue to self quarantine. I understand trying to get our shit together for a couple of weeks or a month, but our entire economy and way of life will eventually disappear. Ask yourself this question. Do you know more people currently affected by the virus or more people financially on the brink right now? 70% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck and those working in restaurants, hotels, airlines, etc are without an income right now. This is not sustainable longterm or however long this virus hangs around
March 29th, 2020 at 11:27 AM ^
Food stamps and welfare for those people would be better than a second round of infections.
March 29th, 2020 at 11:58 AM ^
Exactly. The problem is not with people who want to keep schools closed, etc. The problem is the absurd lack of social safety nets in this country. If you can't work for a couple months there is no reason the government shouldn't provide you with the means necessary to survive.
We just signed a $2 TRILLION dollar stimulus package, with much of the money going to large corporations (who are STILL going to be laying off employees). I'm tired of hearing that we can't pay for it.
March 29th, 2020 at 12:04 PM ^
Amen. Andrew Yang looks like Nostradamus right about now.
Just pay everyone a couple grand per month until this thing is over, no matter the cost. Then maybe raise some taxes after we have a vaccine.
Because I'm sure as fuck not going back to work for a long time.
March 29th, 2020 at 12:16 PM ^
And what happens when a much larger percentage of people than originally estimated decide they arent taking the vaccine ?
March 29th, 2020 at 12:28 PM ^
I think that's a good question. COVID-19's perceived danger is probably higher than that of childhood illnesses that are not -- yet, anyway -- common nowadays. I'd expect less resistance to a COVID-19 vaccine.
March 29th, 2020 at 12:40 PM ^
Then they get to die. Meanwhile, more sane people get to live.
March 29th, 2020 at 12:21 PM ^
I missed the part where Andrew Yang predicted a global pandemic.