Early look at the schedule
CORRECTION: I forgot to put Illinois in. Corrected below. I also went a little more in depth with my "tossup analysis"
CORRECTION II: Apparently I don't know how to count, and my 'prediction' below adds up to 6-6, not 7-5, so corrected
Curious as to people's prediction on the schedule. I've been reading a lot of people's general predictions (this is a 7-5 team, I really think we can win 9 games, etc) and I'm just wondering where people are getting their guesses. Here's my thoughts:
Probable win: Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Indiana, Delaware State
Tossups: Notre Dame, MSU, Iowa, Purdue, Illinois
Probable loss: Penn State, Wisconsin, OSU (again...damnit).
Tossup analysis:
-Notre Dame: Pretty much dominated them, except for the turnovers this past year. With their recruiting, however, they are probably the most talented of my tossup teams. I'll chalk this one up in the L column.
-MSU: I would HATE to lose two in a row to these guys, but I do think Dantonio has done a good job getting them an identity as a pretty hard-nosed team. I think it will take one more season before we resume our dominance of Sparty. Loss.
-Iowa: Showed a lot of improvement last year over the year before, young, and a lot of people think they're going to be a lot better this year. I don't know why, but I'm going the other way and think last year was more of a fluke than the year before. Win for M.
-Purdue: My god their defense was terrible. Ours was too, but I think we have the talent to improve on that side of the ball a lot more readily than they do. Win for M.
-Illinois: At Illinois, on Halloween so it could be a pretty crazy crowd. They pretty thoroughly dominated us this past year. I'm saying this will end in the L column.
This brings us to 6-6, which is my prediction. If we don't go 6-6, I see us picking up an 7th win (vs ND) a lot more easily than a 7th loss (vs Iowa). 6-6 probably gets us to a pretty crappy bowl against a pretty crappy team, so I say we get a bowl win out of this.
Thoughts?
February 13th, 2009 at 10:10 AM ^
I would put the WMU game in the toss up category if Hiller didn't have ACL surgery after the bowl game. Thankfully we have a warm up game with D State. And I hope we don't go two straight to MSU.
February 13th, 2009 at 10:12 AM ^
Probable win:
- Western
- Eastern
- Indiana
- Delaware State
- Notre Dame (aside from turnovers, we dominated them last year. Now we have them at home.)
- MSU
- Purdue
Tossup: Iowa, Wisconsin, OSU(They lost a lot of starters, so who knows how good they are going to be, and who knows how good we are going to be)
Probably loss: Penn State
February 13th, 2009 at 10:17 AM ^
not play Illinois this year? Or are we just not critiquing the game? : )
I think we'll win that game.
February 13th, 2009 at 10:26 AM ^
First, a couple corrections to above posters- we also play at Illinois, and the Delaware State game is in the middle of the conference schedule, not a warmup.
I think this is an unfortunate schedule this year- a few very winnable games (WMU, EMU, Del St, Purdue, Indiana) and the rest are very losable games.
All the mediocre teams that Michigan might be favored against at home, they play on the road- MSU, Illinois, Wiscy, and Iowa. Then, the two toughest games are at home- PSU and OSU. ND is a wildcard.
I think Michigan wins 4, maybe all 5, of the easier games, and 1, maybe 2, of the tougher games- falling somewhere between 5-7 and 7-5. Low end is more likely, IMO.
Having the toughest teams as home games, this would have been a great season to make a run at a NC, if they had the personnel. As it is, they'd be better off if the home and road games in conference were flipped. That would give 6 very winnable games and 2 virtually unwinnable games (@PSU and @OSU)- I think they would likely have a better record with that schedule.
February 13th, 2009 at 10:39 AM ^
We lose to those fucking rejects this year I'll puke...let's call that a win they got nothing in terms of talent.
February 13th, 2009 at 10:41 AM ^
Edit: I see you updated your post, so my comment became obsolete...
February 13th, 2009 at 11:24 AM ^
The assumption that we outplayed ND in 2008 is very misleading and a flawed argument on which to base this year's predictions. We spot the opponent a 21 point lead midway through the 1st quarter - at that point it was conservative play calling from Charlie because he had no reason to risk it.
That said, ND is still a toss up this year because we have them at home.
February 13th, 2009 at 1:42 PM ^
If the ND game this past season hadn't had the 2nd half played in the worst torrential downpour I have ever been a part of, M comes back to win that game. Threet and McG both played good games that day but the weather compounded an already bad turnover problem.
February 13th, 2009 at 11:31 AM ^
I wouldn't call Iowa a win if you're calling Notre Dame a loss. Iowa was a better team last year, returns most of a punishing defense and we play them on the road. Despite Notre Dame's flashy recruiting rankings and impressive wins over the likes of Hawaii they were a terrible team last year and we have them at home. Yes ND will probably be a little better this year but I would still definitely assume Iowa will be the tougher game.
February 13th, 2009 at 11:32 AM ^
Although we have the benefit of having endured last season, and that alone no doubt guides some predictions, I'm more inclined to believe that the entire 2009 season is a toss-up. Although I'm excited about Tate and Denard, there is a very real possibilty that Threet could be the starter come September. Not that I think he'll still be the starter come November or even October... but still. The possibility exists. And I would surely hope that Mr. Threet hasn't just been sitting on his ass since last season.
As far as the record goes, I think 6-6 would be acceptable, as it's clearly a step in the right direction (while 5-7 or 4-8 is not). But with D1-AA Delaware State on our schedule, 6-6 could potentially not be enough to get us a bowl bid. Fortunately, with the Michigan name comes a bunch of dollar signs. That'd probably make the difference. Just get us to a bowl. Please. Pretty Please.
February 13th, 2009 at 11:38 AM ^
Illinois hasn't beaten M in Champaign since 1983, and that Illinois team was as good a team as they could buy. Illinois has only won 11 games at home against M in the whole series.
Prediction: Michigan looks less than stellar in the early part of the season, Illinois will be overconfident after what they did last year, Michigan steals this game somehow. Illinois fans will find a reason to blame the refs.
February 13th, 2009 at 12:00 PM ^
Hard to disagree, other than my not-really-justified gut feeling that iowa played above their heads for much of last season. The Iowa and ND games are two that I am least confident in my predictions, hence those being the games I chose to potentially pickup an extra win or loss
EDIT: Meant for above comment about counting ND as a loss and Iowa as a win. I'm retarded with the typing today.
February 13th, 2009 at 12:00 PM ^
They lose all of their receivers, 3/5 of the OL, all 4 DBs, their best DEs and their kicker. Yet they are highly rated - Go Figure!
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/bigten/psu.htm
February 13th, 2009 at 12:04 PM ^
My biggest worry for 2009:
A loss to EMU.
Call me crazy, if you like. But ever since they hired Ron English, I have had this nagging sick feeling in my stomach about that game. I had the same feeling in the weeks leading up to Appalachian State. I grew up in North Carolina and have kept up with various teams since I left there. I knew all along that App State was not nearly the cupcake M-fans assumed them to be, or that the M-haters continue to point out to this day. App State was a really good team, and the haters that taunt us about that loss are really insulting App State more than they are us. (But they're too stupid to realize that, of course.)
Beware EMU. They (along with Toledo) were 3-9 last year, too.
February 13th, 2009 at 2:09 PM ^
Well, somebody has to be optimistic here, so it might as well be me. Chalk me up for 9-3. Losses to PSU (too much talent and spread works too well), Iowa (letdown after beating MSU), and Wisky (revenge game and trap game before OSU).
RR and spread teams in general improve the most during their second year.
Now that the QB situation appears to be fixed, the overall talent level should take over. This is a bunch of Big Ten and MAC teams we are talking about here. If they were playing in the SEC, I would agree with those who think 7-5 or 6-6.
Better talent at QB plus more depth at OL, RB, slot, and WR equals less time for the defense to be exposed.
They should win six on talent alone this year, and go .500 for the other six.
Oh, and did I mention that they all have an extra year in Barwis' program?
February 13th, 2009 at 3:18 PM ^
The QB situation is fixed? That's awesome! How did they do this?
February 13th, 2009 at 3:21 PM ^
Early prediction:
5-7
February 13th, 2009 at 4:27 PM ^
I'm going with 5-7.
February 13th, 2009 at 4:56 PM ^
why are we so down on our chances against wisconsin - is it simply because the game will be played in madison? i mean, we did beat them last year with one of threet's crappier games.
February 13th, 2009 at 4:59 PM ^
5-7, but maybe 7-5 if we get turnover lucky