Documenting Michigan's Red Zone Possessions: Run versus Pass Plays

By now we are all aware of Michigan's problems in the red zone. Settling for FGs instead of touchdowns really hurt the team in the MSU game and there's generally a fear that this could haunt the team against its upcoming opponents. One of the common refrains on the board is that Harbaugh has a tendency to get conservative in the red zone. This certainly seems plausible. So with this in mind I look at all Michigan red zone plays, focusing especially on the distribution of run versus pass plays.   

I should note two things from the beginning. First, I am a beginner to working with football data and even more of a beginner when it comes to writing about football, so I hope this simple run-down of the data doesn't bore you to death. Second, I am not an Xs and Os type of guy. Seth, Alex, and Ian (sorry if I left someone out) all do an excellent job of dissecting individual plays in the weekly columns. I've also learned a lot from other posters on the board. Instead, my modest goal here is give a bird's eye view of red zone possessions to see if any tendencies/patterns emerge. All data are from ESPN's play-by-play breakdown from each game. 

Red zone woes: an overview

So to begin with the obvious, there is a real difficulty getting into the end zone when starting from within the 20-yard line. The team is ranked 88th in terms of red zone touchdowns, crossing the goal line on 25 out of 42 red zone possessions (60%), and second in the nation in red zone FGs, settling for 3 points on 17 of the 42 possessions (40%). It is probably not a coincidence that some of Michigan's closest games (Rutgers and Nebraska), and the only loss to MSU, have been associated with the inability to convert TDs within the red zone.

Red zone plays: runs versus passes

Is it possible that this could be related to the tendency to become conservative when the team gets in scoring position? I'm in no position to answer this question. But the data do show a very real tendency to take the conservative route in the red zone. 

Although Michigan tends to rely on the run in general, rushing in 62% of all plays, they stick to the ground even more once they reach the red zone, running the ball on more than 3/4 of all red zone plays. Note that the overall plays include garbage time when they are attempting to run out the clock, so the distribution of all plays may actually be slightly more balanced than shown here.

This conservative tendency has also been nearly opponent invariant. The only game in which red zone plays swung in favor of the pass was MSU where the team threw the ball on roughly 2/3 of all red zone possessions. The Indiana game also showed a much more balanced attack.

In general, this conservative tendency is also more obvious the further the offense gets into the red zone, as well as on early downs, as shown in the next three graphs. Pass plays are called on nearly 1/3 of the plays within the 10- and 20-yard line, but this number falls substantially to slightly more than 10% once the team gets within 5 yards of the goal line. 

There is also a general unwillingness to throw on 1st or 2nd down within the red zone. Passes only account for 14% of all 1st down attempts, and less than 1/4 of 2nd down plays. 

The conservative play calling on early downs is even more obvious once we move closer to the goal line. Note that the coaches have yet to call a single pass play on 1st down within the 5-yard line.

Red zone efficiency: running versus passing

Is throwing the ball the answer to the team's red zone TD woes? Again, I'm in no position to answer this question. What I'll attempt to do instead is compare the efficiency of red zone passing versus rushing plays. For this purpose, I calculate the ratio of yards gained on every red zone play to the maximum total yards possible (distance to the goal line). For example, a rushing or passing touchdown from the 20-yard line has a value of 1 (the play picked up the total maximum yards), whereas a 10-yard gain from the 20 would have a value of .5 (the play picked up half of the total yards). This seems like a fairly valid measure to compare the effectiveness of the running versus passing games. The only problem is that it can not differentiate gains based on starting position (i.e., a 1 yard gain from the 2-yard line is treated the same as a 10-yard gain from the 20-yard line). I'm open to any suggestions you may have for better indicators of efficiency.

So what do the data show? In general, the red zone passing game has been pretty successful. In fact, passing plays have outperformed the running game against some of the toughest defenses the team has faced. 

Against Wisconsin, pass plays picked up on average about half of the distance needed to reach the goal line. Against MSU and Indiana they picked up 39% and 35%, respectively, of the total available yards on any given play. Recall from above (graph #3) that the last two games have shown an increased willingness to pass once the team gets into the red zone. These data show that this is a welcome development.

Conclusion (tl;dr)

• The data show that Michigan has been especially conservative in the red zone. 
• When they do pass the ball, however, it has generally been effective in picking up chunks of yards even against the tougher defenses on the schedule.
• The increase in red zone passes over the last two games looks like a positive development.
• I might be stating the obvious, but I'm firmly of the belief more data is always better.