Discussion: COVID Eligibility
So it's been largely discussed a major contributor for the major chaos in the NCAA tournament this year is because of the eligibility status of many players, as this season's tourney has some of the oldest rosters ever, as teams like FAU, KSU, Creighton, SDSU, and more feature many elder class players and transfers.
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/35865975/charleston-dalton-bolon-seventh-season-proud-dad-shoes
https://www.si.com/college/alabama/bamacentral/veteran-physicality-becomes-alabama-basketballs-ultimate-undoing-byler
This made me wonder: if Beilein did not leave, or Juwan kept any transfers from leaving, how would we look? The reason i thought of this was due to the inexperience we have seen this year, a year where we should have seen some vets stay and help bridge that gap. Here are players with eligibility left that left the program: Zeb Jackson, Brandon Johns, Colin Castleton, David DeJulius, Frankie Collins, and Cole Bajema.
Are all of these guys difference makers? Who knows, but our instability at the point could be solved if we developed and retained one of Zeb, DDJ, or frankie (and if they all flame out that reflects on scouting and developing). Wings we lost Zeb, Johns, and Bejema (Zeb was a combo, Johns was a tweener, and Bajema was a typical Beilein shooter) could be very helpful if just ine stayed and developed or lived up to expectations. Castleton we lost but got Dickenson, but having those two on the same team would have been nuts as Colin was all SEC.
This just shows as good as Juwan has flashed on post player development or some in game plays and concepts, his rotations and his player evaluations and retainment have been subject for sure. I think this year is a telling year: this roster is completely his. We could have kept Beilein guys and been a veteran team, we could have doubled down on 1 and dones, instead we are in no man's land with no real identity. What do you all think? Would any of these guys who left actually been a benefit to this team? I personally hated seeing Bajema and DeJulius leave cause I thought DDJ was going to be the next stud point for Michigan and Bajema screamed typical Beilein guy and would have lit it up under him.
I’m reading this at 5:30 AM because I’m having trouble falling asleep. Thank you for providing a remedy to my inability to sleep. Heading back to bed now.
The portal and NIL are not the same as when Beilein was coach, most power 5 teams have similar turnover as us if not worse. Most players want to start or get lots of minutes asap or leave. Maybe the NCAA should give all schools an extra scholarship.
I wish we could have convinced a few players to stick, but then we don’t get some of the one and dones we ended up with cause of the lack of scholarships. Would we have been a happy fan base miraculously retaining a bunch of non low to mid level production instead of chasing fresh recruits?
from browsing stats of the players that left, Cole took 4 years to become ok and is still transferring. I don’t think he’d start for us next year at forward as he isn’t big enough, he seems more like a better fit at a smaller conference.
Brandon had plenty of chances, but didn’t reach the potential most of us envisioned. He probably wanted a fresh start.
Zeb wasn’t going to start, and he wasn’t going to stay to be 3rd string shooting guard.
Cole Bajema just entered the portal:
Brandon John’s Stats, started every game for VCU:
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/stats/_/id/4397206/brandon-johns-rjr
Zeb Jackson stats, 18.5% from 3 this year:
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/stats/_/id/4433172/zeb-jackson
My whatif’s are Jackson, DeJulius and Collins. Barnes will be added to the list next year.
Zeb was pretty bad this season in the A10. He may turn out to be decent but he's been in college for three years and has done very little.
DDJ was rough his first two years at Cincy. This season he finally cracked 30% from deep (33%) and upped his assist rate to become kinda good as a 23 year old in a lesser conference.
Barnes needs to move down a level as well or go to DePaul where he can play for a bad team.
Yeah, I don't really think the guys who have left in the past couple of years have shown to be huge losses. Jackson shot 19% from 3 this year and maybe he turns it around at some point but like you noted it's his 3rd year and he had a 95 ORating in the A10. Johns was a bit better at VCU but he's another 23 year old big who was barely over 100 ORating and wasn't a great rebounder or shooter against worse competition. Outside of 3pt shooting (and that's on low volume) Terrence Williams was as good or better than him across the board and people want(ed) to run him out of town.
DDJ and Collins would have been nice as PG options just because of their experience but they'd have likely stymied Dug's development and while I like Collins enough as a player I think there's some conflation between how badly ASU beat up UM and how well Collins played in that game (and most of the year). He was a serviceable P5 PG but he turned the ball over a ton and, in my opinion, benefitted from having a bunch of shooters around him that upped his assist totals. And DDJ was, as you noted, finally a pretty good guard but it took a minute and he left years ago because UM kept recruiting/transferring over him.
If there was one guy I hoped had stuck around it was Castleton. He didn't have much stretch in him but he'd have been a great backup big and a guy you could have used in those Dickinson-Reed lineups where Dickinson stretches the court and you've got 2 plus rebounders and a really good defender inside.
March 26th, 2023 at 12:14 PM ^
TWill was as good or better than Johns’ 4th year at Michigan. Johns’ other 4 years in college are better than TWill’s last season. Just looking at ‘22-‘23:
Johns shot .558 from 2 to TWill’s .472.
From 3, it’s .311 to .250.
Points per 40 min: 16.7 to 9.2.
Johns also had better steals and blocks numbers. The only advantages for TWill were rebounds and turnovers. (But TWill wasn’t involved in the offense, limiting his turnovers.)
If the argument is that Johns put up better numbers in a worse conference, that doesn’t hold this season as the Big10 was way down. Johns 4th season is so out of whack with the rest of his career that I’m convinced he was suffering from long covid brain fog. I didn’t trust him to catch a pass in 21-22, but he’s not that player.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/brandon-johnsjr-1.html
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/terrance-williamsii-1.html
You have to throw out both of their first years in college - Williams played 7 minutes a game and Johns played 4 and took a total of 22 shots (including FTs) all season. Neither did much because neither was asked to do much.
Sophomore years Johns did show up when Livers got hurt and played...fine but the team definitely wasn't great when he was given extended play and his ORating over that period was barely 100 and he was a foul magnet on defense (30 fouls in 11 starts compared to 46 fouls in 26 starts this year for Williams, for reference). But comparing their sophomore years alone Johns was the more active defender but he's also a better athlete - that was his jam coming out of HS and was the one thing people kept banking on. But he turned the ball over a lot (21 TOs vs. 15 assists) and wasn't much offensively but at least he shot the ball a little. Williams was again a bench guy but was a competent shooter - 39% on 3s on 58 attempts vs. 34% on 52 from Johns - but I'll admit Johns's 2nd year was probably his best at UM.
The problem was he didn't come close to replicating that success the next year or beyond. 2021 was a great year so people sort of forget this but the guy had a 28% TO rate in conference; that's astronomically bad for a guy that was mostly going to get corner 3s and easy dump offs. He shot 19 3s all year half of his regular-season hits were in a blowout against Maryland in January. He became largely unplayable down the stretch until Livers got hurt and then he was surprisingly competent in the Big 10/NCAA tournament that (I think) recast his season in a lot of people's eyes. A third of his total rebounds happened in those 5 games, half his assists, 1/4 of his blocks. The rest of the year he was mostly a non-entity and was so bad for a stretch that he was effectively a healthy stretch for a month. Williams, for all his faults, had a better year last season simply because he was willing to shoot the ball and get the rest of his teammates involved offensively. Johns had a 14:28 Assist/TO ratio; Williams was 27:28 in almost 3 times the minutes. the TOs were bad but at least they came playing games; Johns barely cracked 350 minutes all year.
Johns was always a high-upside guy who needed to get out of his head and do the simple things well. I'm glad he figured that out at VCU to an extent but he seems like just a dude, not unlike Williams. But Johns was always more of a lottery ticket compared to Williams so fans hoped he'd cash out so there was way more optimism around him than his actual performance portended.
Terrence Williams was as good or better than him across the board
That’s the only comment I was taking issue with. I showed how Johns was a better shooter and scorer than Williams. Over their careers, Johns averaged 1.1 and 1.2 steals and blocks over 40 minutes. Williams is at 0.5 and 0.3.
Both guys have been miscast at Michigan. Johns was asked to be an undersized 5. Williams has been an undersized 4. Neither one is anything more than a 5th option on offense. But the team would have been unquestionably better if the VCU version of Johns was getting Tschetter’s minutes. The team would very likely be worse off next season if keeping Johns cost us Khayat. But this is a “what have you done lately,” culture. No one has patience anymore to build something.
You seem to be comparing Williams junior season to Johns’ senior season. That’s an argument I lose. My point is that I don’t think Johns’ senior season is the rule. I think it’s the exception, as seen by looking at his stats from seasons 1-3 and 5.
This was just a weird year altogether. Look at the Final Four.
No #1 seeds in the Elite 8. A #16 beat a #1. The best player on the overall #1 seed is involved in a murder investigation. That same player then broke the record for worst FG% in the history of the tournament (after 2 or 3 games).
Michigan lost like 10 games they should have won. Win just half of those and the narrative around this team is completely different. They went 0-10.
And the average fan probably couldn't name 10 players from this season. "Uhhh...Timme from Gonzaga, Miller, that tall guy from Purdue, Bacot at UNC, the Johnny kid at UCLA and the point guard with the big dreadlocks." Maaaybe they can add a few upperclassmen like Dickinson, Jackson-Davis, Murray, Wong at Miami or Jalen Wison.
College basketball is getting crushed by the 1-and-done, transfer portal, G-League, Overtime Elite, etc.
I personally think it's done, but maybe they figure out a path with the NBA to let players go straight out of HS (or stay 2 years minimum) and come back to college if they're not in the first round. And even then, you still have the portal and that's not going anywhere.
This is spot on! Maize you made some very valid points!
They really need to let people who go undrafted return to school. The issue is a bit difficult, I guess, besides NBA CBA, the fact that basketball starts in late fall/early winter so scholarship balance would be hard to get right.
However, how many underclassmen/those w remaining eligibility declare for draft but don’t get picked? The NBA tries to let guys know their grade, but some are just not into getting their degrees and would rather grind out for pro roster spot.
I love this year’s tourney. We actually have teams winning games.
How many people knew Ja Morant, Wally Sczcerbiak, or Gordon Heyward before their tourneys? I don’t think name recognition has much to do with the tournament’s success. You are begging the question about the average fan with knowing players. The average fan rarely knows a load of players outside their own conference, fer gosh sakes.
I’ve watched afar as KState did well all year but didn’t know of Nowell and his story until the tourney. I look at box scores—I don’t spend time watching Sportscenter like I did when I was younger.
Media has changed; how we watch has changed. When we watch has changed. How much we can watch has changed. So what if UK and Duke are out early—that’s actually awesome. They have three guys all predicted to be first rounders/lottery at one point. Those guys could stay, and that would be great for their team—but is that great for college basketball? Or the pros?
The current system was put in place to make sure fewer HS blue chips didn’t go undrafted. After Kwame Brown and a few others busted hard, NBA wanted to have that “gap year” to evaluate who can actually play at a higher level and who reached their ceiling on the AAU circuit.
While I have no rooting interest in the tournament this year, I am heartened by there being no #1 seeds left. With NIL, blue blood teams cannot go out and buy players to create all star teams and dominate those who play by the rules. If anything, this season's tournament has been about experience and player development, both of which are good long term for the sport. I think we are in a transition in college sports, but ultimately will be better off in the long run.
No Alabama or Clemson in football's playoffs was also a hopeful sign.
I will say, the amount of relative parity on display in the tournament this year (relative to the past, that is) is a major part of what is making this one highly entertaining, but I think that, as was sort of mentioned above, this seems to be the culmination of about 25-30 years of trends within college basketball as well as perhaps within conferences themselves.
March 26th, 2023 at 11:20 AM ^
I'm sure NIL is playing a role but the men's ncaa basketball tournament has been trending towards chaos for a number of years.
In 2017 the teams in the Elite 8 were seeded: 4 vs 7, 1 vs 11, 1 vs 3, 1 vs 2 with 1, 1, 3 and 7 in the FF.
In 2018 the teams in the Elite 8 were seeded: 9 vs 11, 9 vs 3, 1 vs 3, 1 vs 2 with 1, 1, 3 and 11 in the FF.
In 2019 the teams in the Elite 8 were seeded: 1 vs 2, 1 vs 3, 1 vs 3, 5 vs 2 with 1, 2, 3 and 5 in the FF.
In 2021 the teams in the Elite 8 were seeded: 1 vs 6, 1 vs 11, 1 vs 3, 2 vs 12 with 1, 1, 2 and 11 in the FF.
In 2022 the teams in the Elite 8 were seeded: 4 vs 2, 8 vs 15, 5 vs 2, 1 vs 10 with 1, 2, 2 and 8 making the FF.
In the previous 5 tournaments, with the exception of 2019, you've had a number of lower seeds making the elite 8 and making it to the FF. This year is just on steriods.
March 26th, 2023 at 10:29 AM ^
I think this is spot on.
March 26th, 2023 at 12:57 PM ^
Great point about CBB as we know it getting crushed by many significant changes. We are in a period of change and I don't know that anyone has figured it out. When a guy like Jay Wright walks away, that was my "canary in a coal mine" moment to get ready for a bumpy ride.
Experience then talent is now the key. Anybody who has the slightest bit of potential is going to be grabbed by the NBA because of the development systems they now have in place. The dominant programs will be the ones that can recruit players with potential and keep them in the program long enough to develop.
People want a guy like Terrance Williams to transfer, I just want to see him in a role more suited for him. People want Llewelyn gone, I just want to see him after time in the system and playing appropriate minutes.
I think with time we could get there, Dug and Tarris could be anchors of a team as they have no NBA potential. Get Kobe back, fill some gaps with transfers, and win some games next year.
Then we can start judging what Juwan can do with upper classmen who have been in the program.
Don’t be surprised if a:
Sr. McDaniel
Jr. Washington III
Transfer
Sr. Tschetter
Sr. Reed
Make some real noise.
March 26th, 2023 at 10:14 AM ^
I can stomach losing or a "bad" year. My concern is the manner in which this team lost repeatedly and how little it improved over the course of the season.
It really reinforces the fact of just how damn good Beilein was in talent evaluation. That's something that just can't be learned. If I am Juwan, I'd be reaching out to John to offer him to be my private basketball recruiting consultant.
March 26th, 2023 at 10:12 AM ^
There is a diary section
March 26th, 2023 at 10:14 AM ^
I think the fact that every Big Ten team and every blue blood school struggled during the season and/or in the tournament is a great reason why Juwan deserves some slack. Everyone is having trouble navigating the new NCAA basketball landscape.
March 26th, 2023 at 10:15 AM ^
The attrition isn’t just because of the coaching change. Lots of guys transferred under Beilein, and that was before the NCAA granted transfers immediate eligibility. (Many others also went pro.) Most years we hardly had anyone to honor on Senior Night.
We could have used Collins this year. It’s not really clear why he transferred, but then, given that he went to four high schools in four years, he apparently doesn’t like staying in one place.
March 26th, 2023 at 10:17 AM ^
Letting undrafted players back into the college ranks would be absolute chaos considering the draft isn't until late June. You're transferring to Michigan planning to replace Kobe Bufkin, but then Kobe doesn't get drafted and now you're his new backup?
Either way, everyone complains this time of year about transfers and one-and-dones ruining college basketball and then a year later they're online complaining about a totally understandable loss because they still religiously follow college basketball.
March 26th, 2023 at 12:30 PM ^
Bingo. It's implausible to hold a draft dependent player on scholarship in today's environment. It would become a shit show.
Pretty much the same reason TT wouldn't allow Terrence Shannon to stay on scholly so he could finish the summer semester. That would be insane and we wouldn't allow it either if the roles were reversed.
March 26th, 2023 at 11:10 AM ^
One of my fav features of the NCAA 14 football game was the ability to almost always convince 4th year players to stay for a 5th year (for redshirted players, 4th normally). I’d really love to implement that code in real life if anyone works that one out
March 26th, 2023 at 12:35 PM ^
I remember that! There was NCAA football game that also that let you recruit and compete for high school talent as well. I played so many I can't keep them straight.
March 26th, 2023 at 11:19 AM ^
Would guys who barely did anything in lesser leagues have made a difference for Michigan this year? Seems unlikely. I do appreciate your unique Juwan should construct the roster better take though.
March 26th, 2023 at 11:34 AM ^
I do appreciate your unique Juwan should construct the roster better take though.
It's subtle concern trolling.
I think there’s cause for concern, I just don’t think mediocre mid-major players are the solution.
March 26th, 2023 at 11:34 AM ^
if Beilein did not leave, or Juwan kept any transfers from leaving, how would we look?
If my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle.
March 26th, 2023 at 12:09 PM ^
If that NC game against Louisville had been officiated accurately, there would be another banner in Crisler…
I'm not sure that's true anymore
Ha! True.
March 26th, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^
Move on
This stuff has been discussed ad nauseum.
We finally have a mediocre hoops year after five straight years of sweet 16's, conference championships, and Canadian/Euro players hilariously dunking over everyone and trolling the ever loving hell out of everyone we faced. With as easily as the game allows turnover these days, I don't think one season like this means the sky is falling when we fans have had more fun the past decade or so than those of 99% of other programs.
Could Coach Howard have done a better job this year? There were probably some mistakes made, but his five stars didn't five star last year (happens) and he was left with a ton of turnover this year. He also did everything in his power to net who would be Illinois' best player (that dude probably would have helped!) and got screwed over.
Whether we like it or not, he isn't getting fired and we'll have to see what happens next year. I really like our young players and think we might finally have that foundation of players that actually stay and improve. If next season is dookie, then I'll gladly get on here and screech about it. I don't believe it will be.
I think the Michigan basketball program should be performing at a higher level than they have been in the last 2 years regardless of the variables
March 26th, 2023 at 10:31 PM ^
I don’t really care about any of that. It’s a bit obsessive.