A different (and hopefully interesting?) question about the defense.
So, like most everyone, around here, I was pretty devastated on Saturday. But I was able to start watching the game in slo-mo last night and listening to the podcasts of Sam getting thru the day somehow, along with Spath and all the content here, it's given me some perspective.
I have my own ideas about what happened. We still haven't closed the talent gap. Their LB's and OL played much better than tape would suggest they could - quite possibly enhanced by some form of blood magick in those crazy Bucknut rallies they like to hold. /s (not really)
They did a great job of motion pre-snap to get the matchups they wanted - biggest difference I personally saw to explain the coaching differential. And this leads to my weird question ...
Something that has really driven me nuts post Ped St. (and possibly before) - all the energy we expend on defense getting into formation. I am no football guru like Brian, Seth, Space Coyote, Magnus, etc. But I do understand, from reading, that when you play a 4-3 Over (for example) it is important to designate a SDE and a WDE and the system is so prevalent that all the recruiting services pretty much designate the recruits at DE into one slot or the other. And, with us, in 2018 - it's easy to see that Rashan and Chase are on total opposite ends of the DE spectrum. Rashan is almost into the 3 Tech territory and most NFL draft people expect Chase to be an OLB in the pros. So, it seems to be important for them to fit into those opposite slots.
But, this is the thing - the offense (especially one like OhowIhate which uses an H-back much more than a TE) totally has the option of flipping the defensive assignments by motioning the H-back (or TE) to the opposite side and flipping the side from weak to strong - thus putting the DE's in the wrong slots. This seems especially important for us because (at least IMO) Chase plays the optioned DE much better than Rashan on the basic Zone Read.
Also - with DB's defense you have that viper position (which is basically a hybrid Safety/LB playing the SAM position unless he has a slot Rcvr to cover). When the strong side flips then the LB's also have to flip.
Point is - with simple motion they can change up our assignments - A LOT. And it is quite easy for them to get an advantage out of this. The bad guys first play from scrimmage is an excellent example of this. Khaleke, after finally adjusting and getting to the right side, blitzed. It was a Zone Read. Gary was optioned, crashed hard on the RB, Haskins pulled - Khaleke (in a way that I am fairly certain was not drawn up this way by DB) totally ignored Haskins with the ball, and what I would assume to be his gap, and looked like he was trying to beat Rashan to the RB. Rashan noticed it quicker and broke off the RB back toward Haskins and was a good two steps ahead of Khaleke. Yeah, not an auspicious start - and maybe it explains a few things about the year Hudson is having. But all that aside ...
My question is this ... I have a bad feeling about all this energy wasted pre-snap and wonder if it could be the undoing of DB's defense. But, I have an awful lot of respect for DB. You just don't have the #1 defense at Boston College in the ACC facing Clemson and Fl. St. along with others and not know a few things about how to fix your apparent problems. I think he will meet the challenge - and I'm wondering - if this does become a major problem - offenses taking advantage of energy wasted due to switching assignments and formations.
Is it possible Don Brown may solve this particular problem with symmetry? In other words scrap the whole SDE/WDE system since the defense really has no control over enforcing that it ends up the way they designed it. Furthermore, could we see more changes - inducing more symmetry - such as a double viper? He's been recruiting a lot of viper types, it seems to me. And anything to get Devin Gil off the field more has got to be a good thing, right?
So, am I crazy? Am I missing something?
November 26th, 2018 at 11:46 PM ^
OSU offense = fast
UM defense = slower
No pressure on Haskins + man coverage = shred city
I mean they put a true freshman in specifically because he was too fast for Michigan's scheme. They put Parris on Watson because the speed difference was absurd.
I don't know, I just don't think there is too much to it. Urban knew what he was doing. He's trash as a dude, but he knows football.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:51 PM ^
This ^^^
November 27th, 2018 at 7:55 AM ^
It’s pretty simple. One team has the better players and coaches (at least on Saturday) and that team won.
November 27th, 2018 at 8:21 AM ^
Yea, better players and better coaches is usually a good indicator of success.
November 27th, 2018 at 8:58 AM ^
I think the comments above are reasonable and fair but it’s not like Urban Myer and Co had some epiphany going into this game... how in the hell was MSU able to slow these guys down? They were way more successful against Ohio state than we were defensively.
Seems like we have better talent our deficiencies notwithstanding... what am I missing?
November 27th, 2018 at 9:10 AM ^
How did Purdue crush them and Maryland almost beat them? Maybe Urban has 1 hour of every practice dedicated to beating Michigan and he better prepared for us. Conversely, he thinks his talented team can beat the rest of the B1G with limited preparation.
November 27th, 2018 at 9:22 AM ^
I mentioned this in another post, but both Purdue and Maryland have explosive players on the offense side of the ball in the skill positions. They were able to put points on the board because of that speed, as well as against an OSU team that likely didn't prepare as much as they did for Michigan.
eg: Rondale Moore is scary fast and I'm really not looking forward to seeing him next year as a true sophomore. No LB (and not many CBs) are going to be able to cover him on a "crossing route." He has a chance to take it to the house any time he gets the ball in open space.
November 27th, 2018 at 10:04 AM ^
Yeah, that’s the same question but flipped to the offensive side. Despite our glaring issues schematically, we scored 39 with a dropped td and two failed 2pt conversions that should have been plenty to be honest.
HOWEVA it became clear that we would need much more offense once the defense was sca-rewed. Bush went out what, 5 minutes into the third? Then the blocked punt td happened soon after. That’s when (at the absolute latest) we needed to find an extra gear on offense and we have the players to do it as evidenced by our two minute drill at the end of the first half.
Brohm, Frost, and Canada all kept their teams in the game with superior offensive game plans and less talent than what is available at Michigan and with much worse defenses. Offense and defense are not mutually exclusive, you’re allowed to be awesome at both.
November 27th, 2018 at 10:43 AM ^
Bush goes down, about 9 minutes left in the third. OSU has it first and goal from the 3. Completely inexplicably, Meyer brings in Martell to run the only 3 plays in OSU's playbook that Michigan can defend, consecutive, and then kicks a field goal to stretch the margin to 8. I thought it was a HUGE error and I thought it was possible that Michigan would seize the momentum of that stop and respond with a rejuvenated offensive attack. Instead, Ambry Thomas fields the ball out of bounds at the 7. We get bailed out by a DPI that gives us a little breathing room, and then Patterson shorts Gentry by an inch (still should have been a catch). Blocked punt. Game.
The seam route to Gentry would have put us at mid-field and we probably would have scored and then anything is possible. The blocked punt ended the game.
November 27th, 2018 at 11:31 AM ^
I believe that blocked punt was a huge defining moment in the game. After that things started to snowball. Every play matters.
November 27th, 2018 at 1:01 PM ^
Giving up points at the end of the first half after we turned the kickoff fumble into 6 points was the end for me.
The way OSU marched down the field to the goal line in under a minute after we completely flipped momentum was the killer. I know they were aided by two DPI's on that drive, but it was at that point I knew UM had no answer defensively. The team looked as if they felt defeated already, and there was no coming back.
November 27th, 2018 at 9:35 AM ^
Watching that game it is obvious the talent difference between the two teams. They controlled the LOS because of the better talent and they have better speed at the skill positions. It’s not always the X’s and O’s many times it’s the Jim’s and the joes
November 26th, 2018 at 11:51 PM ^
Yes, for sure. All points totally valid.
But I'm not looking at what hurt us in this game, except in how it was so easy for them to flip us into the match
ups they wanted.
I'm more concerned with how EVERYONE can flip us back n forth at will - I'm not looking at root causes of 62 points here and I'm not looking at wins and losses.
I'm looking at wasted energy that builds up and causes other problems - such as, maybe ... cramping at the end of games.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:00 AM ^
You're over-emphasizing pre-snap adjustments. This was a matter of superior talent exploiting athletic deficiencies and injuries. Furthermore, Michigan (for whatever reason) was obviously running out of gas by the IU game.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:07 AM ^
You could be onto something. I don't think the defense was as game conditioned as most other defenses, so when they were on the field longer than normal they cramped due to more muscle fatigue (it has nothing to do with hydration - these dudes are all hydrated). So more wasted energy will cause this to happen quicker.
I just think they need faster dudes. Skill is great, but the D needs to be faster. A lot of issues were masked by playing relatively bad/slow athletes all year. PSU had a couple fast dudes, but we were able to get pressure on McSorley. I think the biggest indictment of Michigan's speed was Campbell's jet sweep (which was technically a pass and gave Haskins 6 td's). I mean it wasn't even close. Metellus had a decent angle and ended up 10 yards behind him in a blink of an eye.
Clearly Don Brown is the man, but the scheme didn't match the speed of OSU. I won't be too critical because there's a reason why he is the DC of Michigan, and I am an anonymous board poster. I just don't know the ins and outs of defensive scheming that much, but you can come to a few simple conclusions with your eyes.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:57 AM ^
I'm a huge Don Brown fan, but his comment in an interview about the number of snaps that a defense should able to handle without breaking down did give me pause. It seems complementary to Harbaugh's whole establish-the-run, wear out the opponent's defense philosophy, but it seems to me that when you face a Clemson, OSU, Oklahoma, or Alabama, there is a good possibility that you will need to be able to play good defense for more than 65 snaps. I'm not sure we are building a defense that can do so. (And some of that may be based on roster depth.)
Also, remember that when we went after the S&C coach from Arkansas, who emphasized that their OL was the largest in all of football, some posters familiar with that program described that we would be trading off endurance/conditioning for size.
November 27th, 2018 at 10:07 AM ^
To be fair, that play came after Bush was out of the game. I'm thinking they called that play specifically because of his absence because he makes that play.
That being said, if Bush goes pro we need someone to replace him. Going along with the consensus, we need some LBs that can move.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:56 PM ^
Correct, this happened shortly after Bush left. And it brings two points - 1) Harbaugh does nothing to specifically attack a weakness; 2) Michigan does nothing to get the ball outside quickly.
Aside from the WR screen (usually telegraphed by formation), there are no sweeps, no pitches to a moving RB, very few wheel routes... The Harbaughffense has all of these tools, but he concentrates on interior gap runs and perfect blocking.
AAARRRGHHH!!! I'm getting spun up thinking about it all over again. Thanks!
November 27th, 2018 at 8:19 AM ^
The cramping issues are directly connected to our strength/conditioning coach and nutritionist.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:57 PM ^
This is absolutely right. Michigan was dependent on multiple average three stars (Dwumfour, Gil, Watson) going up against the likes of Parris Campbell, Mike Weber, KJ Hill, Dobbins, etc. In addition to that, M's defense had all of the wrong injuries at the wrong time, against an offense that they aren't actually well equipped to beat, while OSU's o-line unsurprisingly played their best game of the year.
November 27th, 2018 at 7:35 AM ^
This just isn't true. Go look at the pregame match-ups and the star chart. We have as many 4 and 5 stars as they do. They main issue was scheme, a few dropped passes on our part, and a few missed tackles, and the inability to get any pressure on Haskins. I also thought Shea may have played his worst game of the season. He got happy feet and ran into sacks and he missed some check downs when he could have gotten rid of the ball. After watching it, I don't think it was as bad as I previously thought. Ambry should have taken Brandon Watson's snaps after the 1st TD which was a total product of speed. The kid that killed us (Chris Olave) is a 3 star recruit. As painful as it is, watch the film.
https://mgoblog.com/content/fee-fi-foe-film-ohio-state-2018-offense
November 27th, 2018 at 7:38 AM ^
Yeah, it is really this simple. Anybody who was being honest with themselves knew OSU was going to score some points. (Not 62, but quite a few). We had very little margin for error. Gentry dropped 3 balls, we needed all of them. We need that 1st down that Perry could not bring in on the first drive. Patterson did not sense obvious trouble on a few plays where he needed to just bail and throw it away. The false start on 4th and 2 was killer. We had a couple of PBUs that were a foot away from being picks.
OSU and M are much different teams. OSU is like a “volume shooter” whereas Michigan is a “sniper.” They take a lot more shots than we do, we rely on precision on limited attempts. We didn’t hit anything on Saturday. In all honestly I think we buckled under immense pressure. Every time we lose to OSU there is another layer of pressure added to the mix and it is becoming almost too much. Add in Senior Day, all that emotion,their insane crowd, it just becomes too much. We have seen it in 06, 16, 18.
At this point I don’t think we will beat them at the Shoe to break this drought. We need one of these do or die deathmatches to come to the Big House. It may sound like a shitty excuse, it isn’t meant to be. We need all the help we can get. This OSU roadblock has reached “insurmountable” when it is played on their turf. Just my opinion.
November 27th, 2018 at 8:55 AM ^
One thing I haven't seen much comment on (I agree with your post, especially that we buckled under pressure) are that two players, Shea and Tyree, both independently speculated that the team may have been overconfident and looking ahead of this game. Comments I found incredible and astonishing.
November 27th, 2018 at 10:21 AM ^
Sometimes players get baited into that answer just by the form of the question. Obviously if they said it there is the possibility that it is accurate, but I doubt it was possible for any of the players to "look past" this game. I am not sure how that would be possible.
Part of what I think the disconnect between the coaches and the fans is with regard to the OSU game is that the more the coaches publicly "emphasize" the game as this all encompassing thing, the more pressure the players are going to feel. People can talk all they want about how OSU eats, sleeps, and breaths the Michigan game all year around, but the real issue to me with regard to this game is that OSU has so much built up capital in the rivalry that they play "loose" from the get go. The players and the coaches. They have nothing but success to reflect upon against us, they play with nothing to lose because they quite literally don't know what it is like to lose it and thus do not fear it.
Conversely, I think that Harbaugh treats it publicly "like any other game" because that is the best angle he has to play. I think fans want Harbaugh to punch the podium at the beginning of the year and say that "THIS is the year that we are beating OSU, we got the countdown clock going, we aren't taking this shit anymore" but the only thing that does is increase the pressure on his team to even greater heights. Essentially, every year that Michigan takes the field against OSU they are trying to erase 20 years of pain in one football game. They almost literally suffocate. I think Harbaugh is actually doing his level best to both simultaneously maximize and minimize the importance of the game to his players. It is a really shitty hand, but he is committed to playing it. He is not going to publicly address the "big picture" of the OSU rivalry. Some people are interpreting it as cowardly, but I think it is tactical.
At this point, as a fan, I have to take the tact that someday we will beat Ohio State. I have no idea when, but it will happen at some point. I am not going to develop expectations for that game for the foreseeable future, though. The simple fact of the matter is that we as a program have ourselves in a really shitty bind with The Game (taking into account conference alignment, placement on the schedule, away the same year as MSU, etc.) and the fix is still in the early stages. It was a cold, brutal realization but it is what it is.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:44 PM ^
When you call this game for what it was - a total flop - you can start making some more lucid conclusions. Forget that Ohio State may have won this game anyways, Michigan completely failed to play close to it's potential. They utterly collapsed in their biggest game.
So fundamentally you've hit the nail on the head. The current rivalry is years of scars built on top of one another and Ohio State holds every possible psychological advantage. Every year they can come in to the game flexing on Michigan and intimidate them. And it's not so much Michigan's choice to just take it, it's what happens when you lose every year and the pressure keeps building. So Michigan's task is to turn the tables - to somehow scare Ohio State, to finally inject some fear into their side. Theyre trying. And once they do, it'll just take one i promise.
The realization is stark - every season rests solely and entirely on beating OSU. No scenario exists in which Michigan can advance without beating Ohio State. In the playoff world Michigan can afford a Big Ten loss earlier in the season. But it can never lose to Ohio State. That's a lot to bear. The stakes in this game wont ever be higher. And so we'll see.
November 27th, 2018 at 8:58 AM ^
This^
We have had our best 2 teams (In Harbaugh era) in this match-up be road games. They have really good teams in all these games. Also, their best players make plays, that blow the game open. Our best players, make plays that keep us a float. Mind you, Nico had his best game, DPJ continues to get better and better, and Evans played really well, but no one on defense stood out, and Shea made under throw after under throw, when he needed to lead receivers. I'm not as discourage today, but it's still very disappointing.
November 27th, 2018 at 10:30 AM ^
Chiming in on that point, my son is in the MMB and traveled to Columbus last weekend and he never wants to go back again. He was emotionally overwhelmed by the atmosphere - it wasn't just 'Beat Michigan', they were screaming for blood. He thought it was the closest thing he experienced to what it must've been like in a Roman coliseum with the gladiator death matches, and he's played in other stadiums. It was so overwhelming, I never saw him like that after a game. I can only imagine how it impacts the players. Notre Dame was not this way.
Harbaugh mentioned feeding off the crowd in the PSU game. I was there, and you could definitely feel it (was doing my best to contribute). The crowd getting behind you provides an emotional lift. I would have to think the opposite is also true. M's best chance of cracking that nut is likely at home. This of course assumes we don't let OSU take over our stadium - there was a lot of red there last year.
November 27th, 2018 at 10:59 AM ^
I know we're on a losing streak and it sucks but it infuriates me to see the difference between our fanbases when it comes to The Game. Our fans see it as an opportunity to make money rather than to support the team while their fans always show up. Not saying we need to be psychopathic like them, but like, don't sell your tickets to non-M fans. Drives me insane.
November 27th, 2018 at 11:09 AM ^
Welcome to big time college football..lol.
November 27th, 2018 at 11:21 AM ^
Thanks to you and your son for the first-person report Gruden. I have been wondering about this continually since Saturday.
OSU was so different this year depending on whether they were playing at home or not. But I'm not trying to argue that we can never beat them in their stadium. When we scored twice quickly, the crowd quieted down.
Home field advantage seems to exacerbate momentum more than it influences spreads.
November 27th, 2018 at 8:22 AM ^
OSU’s plan was very simple. Neutralize UM’s strong pass rush with quick routes, isolate their elite WR speed on our slowest cover guys, draw all other man coverage away from that edge and then watch said elite WR run free to the end zone. We did not have the cover personnel to match OSUs plethora of elite WRs.
OSU exploited our matchup weaknesses - poor DT pass rush and middling cover guys on the slot / HB. Don Brown is fine, but to beat elite offenses we need more speed at Safety, Nickle and OLB.
Also, Haskins had a great day which did not happen all season as he had some real clunkers. He is a streaky performer, like a good 3 point shooter. He was just on fire against us.
November 27th, 2018 at 10:25 AM ^
I think it was Brian’s preview that mentioned Haskins is a very different QB when pressured. We just didn’t get to him. That was the difference. McSorley, Lewerke, etc. rushed throws and were off because they knew they’d get smacked. Haskins stood in there and fired at will.
That’s what happened. It’s not a coincidence that Indiana’s pass pro held up well considering and Ramsey had an okay day.
If you can pass protect against Michigan, you can move the ball.
November 27th, 2018 at 11:40 AM ^
This was my observation as well. Yeah BWat got exposed for his lack of speed but if you give Haskins that much time to throw, man coverage is going to breakdown anyway. Conversely Patterson missed some dump offs, failed to sense pressure or bailed too soon but he was under pressure pretty much all day long.
What I don't understand is why the coaching staff didn't recognize this possibility and have some plan for it. I get that confidence in our defense was high but after the IU game there should have been some concern. OSU was watching. Might make sense to have something in your back pocket just in case. Why weren't we blitzing? Why not replace BWat with AmT? Why not run zone coverage? Something?
November 27th, 2018 at 11:50 AM ^
When did Haskins have a clunker?
November 27th, 2018 at 11:57 AM ^
Nebraska and MSU games weren't exactly spectacular for Haskins.
November 27th, 2018 at 8:56 AM ^
I agree with you, but Olave was playing because of the injury to Austin Mack, not only because he's fast
November 27th, 2018 at 9:02 AM ^
Here's the thing: the only defense the Buckeyes put more points on this season was Oregon State. Link
So this either means TCU, Tulane and every other team in the Big Ten has a faster defense than ours - or - every other team in the Big Ten had a better plan to deal with that speed given their weak points and injuries on the week they played the Buckeyes - or - the Buckeyes' defense didn't prepare for ever other team but Michigan. (I am betting they at least prepared for Penn State 27 pts and Michigan State 26 pts.)
So, I am going with Don Brown had the wrong plan, and his nightmare shifted from Happy Valley to the Shoe. That is it. That is why we lost the game embarrassingly.
November 27th, 2018 at 9:09 AM ^
So much this^
November 27th, 2018 at 10:35 AM ^
Well said. Perfectly simple. Don Brown got worked in this one isolated game. And he'll have a better answer the next time we face a loaded spread passing attack with an NFL QB, which judging by the looks of Tate Martell, might be never.
People pulling their hair out about athletes and recruiting must have missed the part where OSU and their never-ending string of 5-stars allowed 50 points to Maryland and Purdue. They must have missed where Don Brown's defense full of terrible slow people held OSU's team of bionic athletes to 17 regulation points in 2016 and 24 last year (before they tacked one on in garbage time).
It was a coaching matchup that OSU won decisively and that sucks. It sucks doubly because it came at the hands of Ohio State. Don Brown in 3 years at Michigan is about 36-2 in a heads-up scheme battle with the opposing offensive coordinator (give-or-take your opinion of a couple others). He's good. We're good. We got blasted on Saturday. It happens to everybody. Onward.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:12 PM ^
I wouldn't exactly call Mike Weber's TD last year "garbage time." There were two minutes left, OSU was at the 25 yard line, Michigan had a timeout remaining, and it was second down. If Michigan stuffs OSU there, they force a kicker who had just missed on the last possession into another 42-45 yard FG with a minute left.
November 27th, 2018 at 10:43 AM ^
I'm hoping some good analyst here will do a diary comparing M's defensive approach to OSU vs. how other teams approached them defensively (especially MSU).
/looks around...
November 27th, 2018 at 12:46 PM ^
FWIW - I checked - the score was 19-24 when Devin Bush and David Long left with injuries. After the half the defense had stopped OSU once, and the drive Bush went out, only allowed a field goal.
And so, we had key injuries exactly where we couldn't take them - including the captain of the defense.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:05 PM ^
Yeah, I'm not buying OSU is "super fast" and Michigan is not and that's why we lost big. They have a few impact players on offense that probably run a sub 4.5 40, such as Campbell, Hill and Dobbins. But our back 7 is really fast too. The main thing is OSU did a good job of getting the ball to their speed guys in space. And Haskins did an excellent job of hitting them in stride. If we get to Haskins with some pressure throughout the game I don't think he makes those precision passes, and therefore the speedsters aren't getting the ball on time or in stride. It's amazing how a great offense can be made to look very average by pressuring the QB.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:48 PM ^
If their guys are all faster than your guys, and their QB can throw dimes... wtf you gonna do?
Never mind that we were able to apply zero pressure. I thought that if I went back and slowed it down, I'd find a bunch of holding. Maybe indications that Chase wasn't 100%. But I can't get the stomach up to go back and watch it again.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:54 PM ^
Interesting. Good analysis. I like how you think.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:55 PM ^
I don’t know jack about defense. I’m wondering if you have three weeks to prepare for OSU, how did you not know about the crossing route and why can’t you put a defender in the crossing route zone ?
And sometimes I think Urban is a better coach than Harbaugh.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:59 PM ^
Same thought I had, regarding the crossing routes. Especially after IU and ND had success against us with those types of crossers, drags, rubs/picks underneath. Also, I blasted PSU for allowing OSU to basically screen pass their way to a win -- well, Michigan did much worse, and I feel dumb.
November 27th, 2018 at 8:30 AM ^
This is exactly what I told my brother. osu's 2 minute offense against PSU was all screens and drags. By no means should that have ever worked. That is basically their whole offense. Then about 1 every 10 balls they take a deep shot. They did not do a single play against us where I thought wow what a unique play.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:03 AM ^
Meyer is one of the two best coaches of his generation, and that includes Harbaugh (and Jim isn't the second coach).
November 27th, 2018 at 8:57 AM ^
I really don't think it's matter of opinion any longer--Meyer is a better coach than Harbaugh. That takes nothing away from Harbaugh, he's a very good coach, but results are results.