College Football Tiers...where does Michigan rank?
I was giving this some thought last night when I was making a point about Harbaugh's "hot seat" and why I thought he deserved criticism, firing Harbaugh for say, Matt Campbell...was always a ridiculous proposition (in my eyes). You make changes to upgrade and at the time, there were no clear upgrades.
Anyway, I've always viewed coaches in tiers, but teams as well.
4-5 years ago, it was:
Tier 1: Alabama, Clemson
Tier 2: OSU, Oklahoma, Georgia
Tier 3: Notre Dame
Tier 4: Michigan and a bunch of other teams (too many to list)...basically everyone who might make a NY6 bowl one year and go 9-3/8-4 the next. Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn St., Oregon, Oklahoma St., the list was long.
...but what about now? How would you tier teams now?
Tier 1: Alabama, Georgia, OSU?
Tier 2: Clemson, OSU?
Tier 3: Michigan, Oklahoma, Notre Dame?
Tier 4: ...basically everyone who might make a NY6 bowl one year and go 9-3/8-4 the next. Or do you have a clear Tier 4 and this group is your Tier 5?
October 2nd, 2022 at 9:45 AM ^
I'll have to do some thinking about the Tiers, but what I do know is that Michigan State must feel good about locking up Tucker so that no one can come along and steal him away from under their nose.
October 2nd, 2022 at 9:51 AM ^
Yeah, they out smarted themselves. Fanbase is probably starting to wish....
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:02 AM ^
Cuck Sweat'n
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:57 AM ^
I wouldn’t knock Tucker just yet. He is doing exceptionally well on the recruiting trail (currently) for MSU. Just like MSU fans said JH was not the answer, JH turned it around. Beat them consistently and get back to me.
October 2nd, 2022 at 12:14 PM ^
If their season keeps circling the drain, that will hurt their recruiting for sure. But I get your point, we just need to take care of them and JJ will hopefully light up their secondary.
October 2nd, 2022 at 12:25 PM ^
His coaching history doesn’t back up what you’re trying to sell. Recruits will bolt after a 3-9 season then what is he left with? Tuck is a fraud, ask any Colorado or Bears fan.
October 2nd, 2022 at 12:28 PM ^
Trust the geek. Geeks know stuff.
October 2nd, 2022 at 12:31 PM ^
Even if we don't beat them, Tuck is performing poorly in year 3. He did not have the resume before he got there. I would not compare Mel to Harbaugh. Recruiting is one thing (,there are many examples of that), developing players is another thing. Their secondary was crap last year and so is this year and Mel is supposed to know a thing or two about secondary.
October 2nd, 2022 at 1:28 PM ^
Just like MSU fans said JH was not the answer,
Not a good comparison. Harbaugh had previously turned around San Diego, Stanford, and the 49ers before coming to Michigan. Tucker had coached one season at Colorado and gone 5-7.
Charlie Weis would be a better comparison. Like MSU, ND panicked and gave him a 10-year deal at the first sign of success.
October 2nd, 2022 at 1:46 PM ^
You have a point, but JH really only had 1 bad year, Covid. That can be forgiven.
To be having a bad year in year 3 is an ominous sign.
October 2nd, 2022 at 3:19 PM ^
Let them play OSU then we will know. Oh and they will be 2-4 and headed for disaster levels.
October 2nd, 2022 at 4:47 PM ^
He is doing well recruiting coming off of an 11-2 year that was a total mirage. Let’s see if players are going to line up to join a team that will struggle to make a bowl game this year. Show me one player that seems to be developing under that staff. They look bad across all three phases of the game.
Don’t let the Covid year and referee incompetence make you buy the Sparty hype.
October 2nd, 2022 at 6:27 PM ^
Mel Tucker struck gold with a transfer or two and some luck that season. MSU thought he was the answer and gave him stupid money. Now his true coaching ability is coming up to the surface and I think in the long run they will be burned by his contract
October 2nd, 2022 at 12:57 PM ^
That tucker deal reeked of desperation. The guy who is bored with his station in life at a low minimum table and moves to a higher buy in table that he doesn't belong at, bets big right away and craps out in 3 minutes.
Sorry, MSU, you and your overpaid coach don't belong. In money, prestige, or in relevance
October 2nd, 2022 at 3:54 PM ^
3-9 Comin'
October 2nd, 2022 at 9:49 AM ^
I feel like you have way too much respect for Notre Dame.
October 2nd, 2022 at 9:55 AM ^
any amount of respect for ND is too much respect for ND
October 2nd, 2022 at 9:58 AM ^
Edit: Just woke up, failed at recent history.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:10 AM ^
I HATE that you all have me "defending" ND.
2022: 💩
2021: 11-2, NY6 Bowl
2020: 10-2, CFP
2019: 11-2, Camping World Bowl
2018: 12-1, CFP
Sorry but that's better than most everyone in college football.
... I'm going to go shower, TO HELL WITH NOTRE DAME!
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:41 AM ^
But that was all under Brian Kelly. He’s the only ND coach in the last 25 years to amount to anything. As awful as a person he is, he wins a lot of games. Right now we have no reason to believe Freeman will match his performance.
October 2nd, 2022 at 3:22 PM ^
Not so fast my friend. Freeman has already matched Kellys losses of his worst seasons the last 5 years. Pretty impressive young fella!
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:58 AM ^
I mean yeah, it’s easy as pie when you don’t play in a conference and get to load up your schedule with your pick of crappy ACC and other P5/G5 cream puffs every season.
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:38 AM ^
Yeah and a lot of it is a function of the state of one's annual rivals. For ND, USC has been down for over a decade. If they had to play OSU every year instead, they wouldn't look as great. See also: Oklahoma thriving while Texas is down. I understand some symbiosis there, but I'd say most is just (un)luck (e.g. Urban Meyer fell into OSU's lap).
Generally, ND under Kelly and Michigan under Harbaugh have been about the same (with M's 2020 comparable to ND's 2016). With Freeman, TBD but early results put them a notch below.
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:19 AM ^
ONE WAY TO LOOK AT IT
1) Alabama:
7 championship appearances. 3 Titles
2) Clemson:
6 championship appearances. 2 Titles
3 ) OSU/Oklahoma:
OSU: 4 championship appearance. 1 Title
Oklahoma: 4 championship appearance.
4) Georgia/Notre Dame:
Georgia: 2 championship appearances. 1 title.
Notre Dame: 2 championship appearance
5) LSU:
1 championship appearance. 1 Title
6) Etc.
Oregon '14: 1 championship appearance, advanced
Michigan '21: 1 championship appearance
Cincinnati '21: 1 championship appearance
Washington '16: 1 championship appearance
FSU '14: 1 championship appearance
MSU '15: 1 championship appearance (38-0)
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:48 AM ^
You said now. Now they are a shit team. There, I made it better for you.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:03 AM ^
Based on what?
Look at the last 5 years. They've done more than just about anyone not named Bama, Clemson, Georgia, OSU or Oklahoma.
October 2nd, 2022 at 3:20 PM ^
October 2nd, 2022 at 9:54 AM ^
1 - Bama Georgia
2 - OSU
3 - Michigan and the 5 or 6 other teams that could beat OSU maybe 30%+ of the time..
4 - About 30% of the rest of FBS.
5 - Everyone Else Except our non-con and sparty.
6 - Sparty
7 - Our Non Con.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:56 AM ^
Pre-Day, Meyer recruited even or better than Bama his entire tenure. Meyer technically underperformed with his talent, even in light of him having the best HC Win pct. in modern football.
I'd put OSU in group #1 easily.
Then maybe slide everyone up a group, or not and keep the #2 group empty, as the talent disparity (at least pre-NIL) really does put UA, UGA, and OSU significantly above the rest, for now at least.
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:08 AM ^
OSU has thankfully come up short in the biggest games over the past decade. They've had Bama and now UGA talent, and 1 national title from the BCS era and 1 in the playoff era.
Bama and UGA both play offense and defense and have NFL farm teams.
OSU is a notch below, and with Day as coach, they look soft.
UM, talent wise is unfortunately a notch below OSU- but our identity with on the lines make us essentially and SEC-lite school (our O-line is elite, D-line not quite consistently SEC level). We've also been missing a QB the entire Harbaugh era until recently.
TLDR: OSU is not Bama, UM can compete with any team in the country but needs to recruit and develop the D-line to elite consistently and always have a QB ready.
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:32 PM ^
Pre-Day, Meyer recruited even or better than Bama his entire tenure. Meyer technically underperformed with his talent...
Alabama had the #1 247 composite class 6 out of the 7 years Urban was at Ohio State. He finished ahead of them just once.
October 2nd, 2022 at 6:45 PM ^
So a lot of stats-junkies will do re-ranks, after their college career/NFL projections, and OSU had significantly underrated classes, also when players bounce to another school (e.g. Alvin Kamara for instance is counted in Bama's class, and different schools have different types/rates of attrition, Saban used to be Mr. Medical greyshirt until they cracked down on that *slightly* more lol)
Now, how much you want to chalk up to H.S. scouts not being as skilled in evaluating players as college coaches are (in this case Urban Meyer, the highest win% coach in football), being able to see things that scouts can't see, etc., is up to you.
Meyer was the king of the blowup, hot-tempered and seeing themselves as exceptions to the rule and untouchable, and his players throughout his career have also mimicked this in their own career/lives.
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:00 AM ^
While 42-27 is undeniable, I'd back off on declaring that to be a trend or attaching a win frequency probability calculation to Michigan OSU going into the future. That was a single result that may have no baring on future contests. It does not yet constitute a trend.
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:37 AM ^
When we start talking tiers, I look at a 5 to 6 year sample. I'd put Alabama, Georgia, OSU and Clemson in tier one and Michigan - along with a couple of others - in tier two
October 2nd, 2022 at 12:12 PM ^
true, but harbaugh has 3 wins against osu if not for injured QBs.
October 2nd, 2022 at 9:54 AM ^
If you swapped Oklahoma and Penn State you’d have a similar result IMO. They have two losses already against inferior opponents paper.
Oklahoma isn’t a top tier program in performance.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:02 AM ^
Not talking about this season alone. Sorry I didn't make that more clear.
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:53 AM ^
Dude, you said now. How about now? I think ND, OK are in trouble now. OSU may be, if they lose to UM again this year. Clemson-- I am not sure. This year will tell us if they are done. LSU-- Kelly might do something there, but there is a 80 percent chance they won't. If UM beats OSU again this year and end up in playoff with Bama and Georgia, then we are talking UM in the first tier or just behind Bama and Georgia because those two teams have a higher talent.
October 2nd, 2022 at 1:15 PM ^
Time will tell with ND and OK but coaching changes have not paid immediate dividends. Clemson looks like a good but not great team when they don't have an all-world QB whereas Alabama and OSU have talent and depth across the board to cover deficiency at any one position.
Bama and OSU are in a league of their own with Georgia rising and Michigan in whatever tier is below Georgia.
October 2nd, 2022 at 9:43 PM ^
Georgia is actually starting to surpass them. That state has blown up the last 15-20 years with regard to talent. Especially when considering population. It’s still not quite Florida levels yet but Florida still has a big edge in population. The thing is Georgia Tech apparently needs to get their shit together. It’s kinda like Ohio with OSU being the only big dog in the state, except GT is a power 5 team they just haven’t been anywhere near competitive enough to be MSU:Michigan. If you’re old enough to remember, GT actually has a strong history in CFB. They were quite dominant at one point, like a Minnesota. That’s a school that if they could figure it out really could at least steal some of Georgia's in state recruits and maybe slow them down a little bit.
October 3rd, 2022 at 10:38 AM ^
I'm old enough to vaguely remember the Rambling Wreck splitting a national championship with Colorado in 1980. Yes, they have history but have been awful recently.
October 2nd, 2022 at 9:55 AM ^
WTF is ND doing to Tier 3 right now?
They are shite until they actually beat a team that isn't shite. Even when they do, fuck ND
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:02 AM ^
Look at ND over the past 5 seasons.
Last year they were 11-2, the year before they were in the Rose Bowl, the year before that they were 11-2, before that they were 12-1.
You have to include this season, but I'm not just ranking teams for this year.
ND has knocked on the door of the CFP (or been in it) almost every year for awhile now.
They get SMOKED when they make it into the CFP, but they're there. We made our first one last season and wanted to fire our coach the year before that. Which you could say is this 2022 season for ND.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:39 AM ^
That shouldn't matter, and same with OU. ND and OU both hit major reset buttons this year. Both are about to go back on the 3-4/year coaching carousel, IMO, i.e. like out in the wilderness. Makes one appreciate Jimmy.
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:55 AM ^
ND is making that far because of their schedule. They play B1G or SEC schedule, they will not be there. There is a reason they get smoked in big games. Same for UM except they finally beat OSU convincingly but got blown out in playoff. If they go to playoff again, then we are talking. ND is shit and they are just lucky.
October 2nd, 2022 at 9:50 PM ^
I think if they played a full power 5 conference schedule in general they would struggle. Throw them in the Big 12 or Pac Ten and I could still see them dropping games against the likes of OkSt or Baylor, ASU or an Oregon team. It’s different when you’re actually a full member of a conference. The hate and preparation are at a different level when you’re regular foes. I’m sure Penn State fans learned that when they joined the conference after a few years.
October 2nd, 2022 at 9:55 AM ^
I’d keep OSU in Tier 1 and bump Clemson up. They’ve both been too dominant in the B1G and ACC to let 1 loss to UM or one bad season bump them down.
Tier 2 would be any team that could legitimately make a CFP run any given year (if they can get one win more than usual). That list probably includes UM, Oklahoma, PSU, ND, and maybe Oregon but not a whole lot of anyone else. If you want to split hairs, Oklahoma is the top team of this tier and could be broken out because they’ve dominated the Big XII as of late, but that seems pedantic.
Tier 3 is just everyone else any given year. Lots of teams can pop up to Tier 2 any given year, but not consistently enough to really rank them there.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:36 PM ^
Don’t forget USC with Riley now. They could become a major problem for everyone honestly. The second he took that job their recruiting, which was good still even if they weren’t, took off. They very well could go on a run like they did in the early 2000’s. In the big ten. That program is a sleeping giant right now and the exposure they’re going to get in the big ten + the $ + Lincoln Riley will likely = profit! I wouldn’t be shocked if they win at least 2 titles in the next decade or so. Remember Saban has to be getting close. With no Urban coaching there won’t really be a dominant coach left.
October 2nd, 2022 at 9:57 AM ^
I ask, because I think OSU is Tier 1. They should feel like they should get to a NC game every single year. Maybe they're 1.5.
I think Michigan is very quietly moving into Tier 2 with Clemson (who is trending in the opposite direction). Teams that should aim for the CFP and build on that. If we can get to 11-0 this year, we're in Tier 2, IMO. That's enough sustained success for a "promotion."
I've got Oklahoma and ND in Tier 3. Oklahoma St. and Baylor are trying to get into that group. USC can't do it this year, but they'll be there under Lincoln Riley by this time in 2024.
I don't believe in Tennessee or Penn St. enough to think they're not prime example of Tier 4. Utah and Oregon are the same, though I have more faith in Utah taking the next step. TAMU is going to try and buy its way into Tier 3.
I say all of this because the until the playoff expands, there can really only be 3 or 4 top level teams. Even when it does expand, I don't think it impacts the very top. That's an exclusive group that due to factors out of our control, have separated themselves. But Michigan is trending into a territory it hasn't seen since Chad Henne and Braylon Edwards were leading the way.
That's pretty cool! To in your gut know (we should beat almost everyone we play). It's cool when the 9-3/8-4 preseason predictions become legit 11-1/10-2 predictions.
I forgot what that felt like. College Football is more fun here...let's not leave again (unless we're going to 12-0/11-1 territory). Youngins, this is what it used to feel like all the time, we got spoiled.
October 2nd, 2022 at 9:38 PM ^
USC will probably get there. And they will get there not because Lincoln Riley is great, but because the Pac 12 is terrible, and USC has incredible intrinsic advantages compared to the rest. And, Riley isn't as incompetent as the string of post-Carrol losers that they've pumped through. Lincoln Riley has never shown that he can coach a team with a defense. He's a pretty good coach, who was, like Day, born on 3rd base.