9-3
College football is a weird game for teams outside of the top 3 or 4 Elite programs.
You win a few game early, build a little momentum maybe just maybe you get lucky and Ohio state only hangs 40 on you.
I kid I kid I'm actually in the process of convincing myself that this is the year that we beat OSU. I like getting punched in the dong
Initially thought that this was a quote from Michigan's preview
Having The Game as the last game of the year used to be a blessing. Now it seems like a curse. Teams rebound from early season losses all the time. Now, no matter how the season is going it's like sailing toward the ends of the earth where there be dragons.
With the idiotic system in place that says an early loss counts only about 1/4th as bad as a late loss, yeah, it sucks. We should play OSU in like week 5.
Make it week 1, just rip that band-aid off right at the start so that we have the entire rest of the season to recover from the beat down.
I’m more worried that those Rutgers and Nebraska games will be good ones, honestly.
6-6. Pray to God I’m wrong.
The Washington and Wisconsin games will tell a lot. I can't see more than 7 wins from this squad, to be honest.
I have the Wisconsin game as a certain loss with one level of confidence less than the Ohio State game. I’m all in on the Rutgers game for information. It’ll tell us if we are middle-of-the-pack or a candidate for division bottom feeder (that’s the only two options for us that I see).
It’s the conference opener, and Schiano’s starting to recruit. Call me crazy, but I think Schiano knows if he can build those recruiting walls around New Jersey, he can build Rutgers into a threat in a few years.
A win against us to start things off would be huge for them in that respect, and I think it’s a game they have circled. I do pray this comment is comical after that game, but that’s where I am at the moment.
Absolutely agree with your take on Rutgers. They almost got us last year, and they will be better. Given the defensive issues, I'm not sure we will be. Plus, they will have that Michigan-is-a-big-game motivation that we see frequently.
Am I the only one who sees an improvement on the defensive talent from last year? We lose two starters on the defense (Paye and Mcgrone) and return everyone else. The secondary returns everyone and gives another year of practice to the corners to not suck. The D-line edge features Hutchinson and a slew of other talent to compete to replace Paye. And you have to think that the D tackles are finally ready to make a difference with the star talents (Hinton and Mazi Smith) getting to their third years and with guys like Jeter, Whittley and Upshaw to be solid rotation pieces. If the D tackles are actually good (or at least not bad) then the lost of Paye will be felt way less as the edge guys will actually play the outside instead of being forced to crash inside.
The only position group I'm worried about are the linebackers. Ross and Barrett arent bad options, its just finding a decent replacement for Mcgrone.
I think this defense has a significant amount of talent (if not terribly deep). The concern I have is whether the new scheme can translate fast enough, making the talent irrelevant.
This is an excellent post, which I upvoted though I disagree with the optimism for the defense. There is talent, but not a great deal of it. Viewing through the lens the expectations of a Michigan defense, Dax and Aidan can be difference makers, and there are a few serviceable pieces -- Hawkins, Green at CB1, maybe one of the DTs -- but overall, I feel like much of the D is below a Michigan par. CB2 will be a project, the LB level is, to be kind, questionable, and, outside of Aidan, the D-Line isn't anything special without major leaps. And we're hoping for major improvement during a wholesale scheme change. Reports from spring practice indicate, once again being kind, growing pains on the defense. This is to be expected with the overall talent level combined with the scheme change on that side. With the expected better recruiting and coaching on defense, I expect the D to be a lot better in 2022. But this year is going to be scary.
Depends on them 1) staying healthy, 2) Hinton/Mazi taking a big step forward, 3) a second corner other than Green being serviceable, and 4) how quickly they can learn the new system.
If he goes 6-6 and doesn’t get fired than this program is officially mediocre
Honestly, the only thing that gives me any semblance of hope against OSU is the fact that they logically can't win every year...right? So at some point they'll lose. The proverbial 1 in 10.
I'm actually in the process of convincing myself that this is the year that we beat OSU. I like getting punched in the dong
On the one hand, nothing I've seen in the past several years leads me to believe UM stands any chance in this game and the difference between the two programs continues to build. At this point it doesn't just seem like football, but a cultural difference in how relevant football seems to be to each university. That said, there was a time when it seemed like it was the other way around, so there's always a chance. Ultimately the only way UM gets this thing turned around is to find a coach with Meyer/Woody/Bo-level passion for beating their rivals or getting someone back at the helm at OSU with Cooper level negligence towards it. But, both of those options seem unlikely. I do think Meyer being no longer with the university will have a slow, gradual drain on the passion there, but unfortunately Day is proving an even better recruiter and offensive mind than Meyer and UM also needs to pick it up big time.
I agree with your sentiments regarding the culture of the two programs and athletic departments being very different. As you also point out, no longer having Meyer around could have a negative impact for OSU over time. It's probably my eternal optimism, but I think this will have a huge impact. For the past two years, OSU has basically had two head coaches. Meyer was retained to make sure the transition to Day went well. It will be interesting to see how Day does without a safety net.
Unfortunately I think Day will do just fine but oddly enough that might be the way out for us. I think some NFL team is going to make a HUGE run at him this year if the death star continues along and he doesnt have Columbus roots - his home had always been in the NFL.
Watch the Bengals. An Ohio team, has their QB in place but has a horrible HC right now in Zac Taylor. Day would be very, very tempting for them and my guess is once they can Taylor they will make a big push for Day.
As a childhood Bengals fan who no longer can dedicate attention to the NFL, this would be ab ideal scenario. Hurt OSU, the Bengals couldn't be worse.
Yep, great points here. Michigan retained a coach that went 2-4 - and could have easily gone 1-5 but for some luck in the Rutgers game - but that graduates quality student-athletes and avoids scandal. That makes it quite clear about the school's priorities and culture with respect to football.
Last season was a perfect storm. Putting 4/5th of the offensive line into the NFL while wiping out spring practice, cutting down on the summer interaction, modifying the fall camp and then having a QB start for the first time with his best WR opting out as well as the teams best corner was not a recipe for success.
Do you believe Michigan would have gone 2-4 last season with Patterson at QB and the team from 2019? If you had established veterans, you tended to do better.
9-3 sounds about right next year. Hopefully we can also pick up a bowl and get 10 wins. Been saying for awhile there’s not much intrigue in college football. Basically OSU Alabama and Clemson are the only teams capable of winning it all. At best you can hope your team has a great season and becomes the fourth team in the playoffs only to get destroyed in your one game
Been saying for awhile there’s not much intrigue in college football. Basically OSU Alabama and Clemson are the only teams capable of winning it all.
While I agree those are the big 3 and the playoffs have made it even more exclusive to the top programs, all you really need is a top 15 talented roster and a Heisman candidate QB. UM has had the former, but never the latter. If you put a Justin Fields, Dwayne Haskins, Kyler Murray, Tua Tag, Trevor Lawrence on any of the UM teams from 2015-2018 I think they'd have a legitimate chance. Oklahoma made a run with Murray and Baker with less talent than UM. Clemson won with Watson with similar talent to UM. LSU won with Burrow. We just need the right QB. Granted, it helps to have Bama talent and you get away with less at the QB, but Clemson has proved an elite QB will beat a more talented Bama team. UGA has been almost as talented as OSU and Bama (some years more so) and more so than Clemson & LSU, but hasn't gotten back since their QB play dropped off.
If this is heavily based off the 2020 covid season, it's trash.
They're higher on transfer Alan Bowman than "former star recruit" JJ McCarthy. They mentioned linebacker "John Ross" in the section on defense (although they did get it right later on).
My vote is for trash.
Are you talking about the offense?
Who the fuck is John Ross? Oh I know he’s a character in Mare of Easttown. What a creep!
Outside of being a cheater involved in sexual predatory incest and spawning a murderer, he seemed like a pretty stand up guy I’d have a beer with.
Rolling Rock or Yuengling?
I read somewhere that all of the women on that show drank Rolling Rock and all of the men drank Yuengling (and Helen drank cocktails).
Thanks for the spoiler.
He is the son of JR Ewing.
For many years, these way-too-early, college-football previews haven’t made much sense to me, and I started buying Street and Smith annual college football magazines in 1960.
As of now, the only expectations I have for Michigan’s 2021 football team are that, unless they’re injured, starters for the opening game will include K Jake Moody, P Brad Robbins, RB Hassan Haskins, WR Ronnie Bell, TE Erick All, WR Cornelius Johnson, OL Ryan Hayes, OL Andrew Steuber, OL Zak Zinter; DE Aidan Hutchinson, S Dax Hill, LB Josh Ross, LB Michael Barrett, S Brad Hawkins, CB Gemon Green and CB Vincent Gray.
It's a pretty reasonable preview, though I wouldn't consider Ross the most important defensive player. Also, there wasn't a single mention of Edwards. The third-down stats from last year compared to the rest of the Harbaugh era were eye-opening. And I didn't realize that the 2016 loss at Kinnick was the only game Harbaugh has lost to a team that didn't finish with at least 10 wins, until last year. That's actually pretty impressive.
They set the win total at 8.5, which seems pretty reasonable, and now I'm really starting to wonder if Bowman might win the starting job.
Everything I've seen the past six seasons, combined with the current state of the roster, leads me to believe 9-3 is possible. And who knows, maybe they do finally break through on the road and beat Wisconsin or PSU. Can you imagine 11-2 with an impressive bowl win? Hell, if that happens, bump his salary back up to $8M a year.
Problem isnt that he only loses to 10 win teams, its that he only loses to 10 win teams.
Michigan has a football team?
Yeah, this didn't really move the needle for me, either way. Sticking with my predictions, we'll most likely be somewhere between 5-7 and 7-5, with a hard ceiling of 9-3 (we're not beating OSU, Wisconsin away, or PSU away, at night, in a white out) and a hard floor of 3-9 (we're not losing to Western, NIU, and we will definitely find a win between MSU, Neb, Rutgers, and Maryland).
Lest you think I am totally negative on the football program, the retooling of the recruiting department and defensive staff, the addition of Weiss on the offensive side, and expecially the hiring of Clinkscale gives me more hope for 2022 and beyond.
EDITED: for clarity on most likely regular-season records.
How is 9-3 somewhere between 5-7 and 7-5?
It obviously isn’t. He’s saying his actual prediction is between 5-7 and 7-5. However, he’s putting a cap at 9-3 as the best record that’s even possible (ceiling). Also said that the worst possible record would be 3-9 (floor).
Yep....thanks. I edited to hopefully have it make more sense.
QB play will matter most IMO. The defense will be somewhere between bad and middling, at least early in the season with some good players but some exploitable weaknesses and likely some plain breakdowns because of the new system.
so that means every win of substance will come down to the offense scoring on a majority of drives, getting TDs not FGs and keeping the defense off the field by moving the sticks. Need the QB play to be outstanding to make that happen. I think the season comes down to one of McNamara, JJ, and the transfer Bowman turning in a quality season. Could be 9-11 wins. If not, it’s going to be an ugly year winning some games we should have lost, losing some games badly that we will feel bad about, and applying the mercy rule vs OSU
Kevin Kelley, is that you?
The defense will be somewhere between bad and middling
Spot on. I think they'll be bad to start the season, like, probably real bad as they're adjusting to a completely new scheme in actual games. Can only hope they improve to middling by end of season.
I have no clue. It could be a worst-case scenario of...
Wmu close win ugly no offense
Washington loss can't get off the field on 3rd down
Niu fools gold win
Rutgers scary close. At this point Alan Bowman is starting because Cade is injured or stinking up the joint.
3-1 trip to Madison is worse than the last 2 seasons. 50-10 loss. Yikes heads are rolling.
3-2 the trip to Lincoln doesn't go the way we hope.
3-3 midway through
I don't think at this point we will lose to both Northwestern and Michigan State and I really think we'll be ready against Sparty but still ugly 4-4 (2-4 against power 5)
At some point I think we would give Jay Jay the start opportunity at this point. Indiana loss. Penn state loss maybe even Maryland. 5-6 or worse and lose 78-0 to Ohio.
Then again I think we could be one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten. Still losing to Ohio state and probably two or three more games even in the best case scenario.
For some reason I do think that we have a really good chance to win more games than we lose and I think our quarterbacks are actually some of the most accurate we've had potentially.
There is zero chance that we lose to Nebraska.
If the season is going bad, that’s not necessarily the best time to throw a true freshman QB out there... that’s one hell of a confidence killer for a young QB that they may not necessarily recover from.
The thing that the preview gets right is that the defense was terrible in 2020. At times it seemed no one knew their assignments and multiple players were trying to do the same thing (quite often in a futile effort to overcome ineffective play at defensive tackle).
According to the article, this happened during the 2020 season:
2020 Michigan Wolverines Fun Stats
– Time of Possession: Opponents 34:23 – Opponents 25:37
No wonder it was so depressing, WE NEVER HAD THE BALL!
I was surprised they listed Josh Ross as our best defensive player, I would have chosen Hutchinson or Hill.
Yeah that's pretty bad. Although Magnus has said he thinks the new system should help Ross. He'll be in a more traditional MLB spot instead of in coverage more.