College Football Nerds pick Wisconsin
However, not really confident. They have never been big on Shea Patterson or Gattis which i find concerning since both were SEC guys.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:22 PM ^
NU was ranked last year and they won their division.
September 16th, 2019 at 4:42 PM ^
I think they mean ranked at the time of the game. Northwestern was 1-2 and had just lost to Akron.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:45 AM ^
Shea has been underwhelming. This is who he is, which means this is another game where defense has to carry the team.
Yet again.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:48 AM ^
I feel like this is a game where Shea especially needs to take some chances and really take some shots down the field. Wisco has a good defense and run game so we have to be aggressive and use our receivers to get points on the board
September 16th, 2019 at 11:58 AM ^
Sure, but the dude couldn't even take chances against Army and he will do so against Wiscy? No. Better explanation is this is his ceiling and we just have to sludgefart the game to possible victory. This offense is only like clemson in my dreams. When you don't throw the ball, you can't be an explosive team against teams with a pulse on D.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:09 PM ^
The frustrating thing about Shea is that against MTSU, there were flashes of his ceiling. The Nico Collins and McKeon TDs and a bunch of shots down field, but then there are other times where he just checks down to a receiver for 3 yards.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:12 PM ^
Actually checking down to 3rd option would be AWESOME. Infact that is what is needed. Mostly he holds on to the ball for a 100 years and then scrambles around, takes a sack or loses the football etc.
Heck, check down to that guy streaking on drag / crossing route. Haskins made all his highlights and hype that way (otherwise he's a bust in NFL in my opinion) and destroyed M.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:29 PM ^
A rookie QB with ZERO starts two games into the season is a bust? Wow, that sounds really well thought out.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:33 PM ^
Ryan day scheme and WRs on crossing routes taking it to the house makes not a QB
Now scurry off to 11 warriors.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:48 PM ^
Shea played arguably the worst game of his career against Army. Why is that performance his ceiling?
September 16th, 2019 at 1:03 PM ^
Yeah, I don't get that either. The dude was clearly hampered by his injury too, plus it's a new offense. So out of the 3 general reasons for Shea to have a bad game (injury, new offense, just had an "off" game day), in theory two of them *should* improve with the bye week, if not all three.
As long as Shea doesn't aggravate his injury before or during the Wisconsin game, there's a strong chance he'll perform certainly better than he did against Army. I mean hell, he lit up Wisconsin last year. Admittedly, it was at the Big House & Wisconsin's defensive front had several injuries, so he may not play as well against Wisconsin this year as he did in last year's game.
But unless he's aggravated his injury, I'd be shocked if he doesn't have a significant step up on Saturday.
September 16th, 2019 at 2:05 PM ^
Shea his entire time at Michigan has showed an inability to read a defense beyond a first read and has poor pocket presence. He has a strong accurate arm but an average brain (for the position, I have no idea what his actual intelligence is and don't really care).
September 16th, 2019 at 3:26 PM ^
I'm not so obtuse to believe Shea is a perfect QB. He has some great attributes, and some limiting ones. Even if he doesn't get any better than last year, he is still better than he showed to be in the Army game.
The argument was that "he didn't take chances against Army, so he won't against Wisconsin."
He has shown in the past, in big games, he will call his number. Last years Wisconsin game saw him keep the ball for a long one that helped jumpstart our offense that game. MSU the next week he had two critical keepers on 4th down, then third down that led to the TD to put us up 21-7. Penn St. he was keeping the ball even when we led big in the 4th quarter. As the preview article stated, he was the 4 minute drill against Indiana.
If all the OP was referring to was Shea's reluctance to chuck up a prayer to Collins, that seems like a Harbaugh direction more than anything. He had no issue just firing fades down the sidelines to WRs at Ole Miss. And being cautious after your team has turned the ball over on 3/4 of your drives to start the game isn't a bad idea. A 4th turnover would have been a death blow in a game where you get 9 possessions.
I'm just sick of that Army game being extrapolated to the rest of the season.
September 16th, 2019 at 1:12 PM ^
No, a better explanation is that Shea was injured in the Army game.
- Gattis knew it, and decided to temporarily restrict the playbook (limit QB keep/pulls; certain types of passes that aggravate oblique injuries) against an athletically inferior Army in an attempt to ensure that Shea is as healthy as possible going into Big Ten play; and
- Shea also knew it, and both on his own & on orders from Gattis, took steps to avoid aggravating his injury by avoiding pull/keeps, flushing out of the pocket sooner than he might have normally, etc.
I'm not saying Shea is a super hero & savior of the team. But he looked damed good at certain points last year & objectively played MUCH better than he did at the Army game. So to say that his "ceiling" was the Army game is demonstrably false. The only reason that would be true is if his injry gets worse & he can't every recover for the duration of the season.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:48 AM ^
I mean most signs point to Wisconsin. They are higher in the fancy stats and playing at home and Michigan has looked like a mess. What about that would make anyone but a Michigan homer pick Michigan?
September 16th, 2019 at 11:49 AM ^
I mean is this really surprising to anybody?
Our record against ranked teams HAS sucked (so far)
Our record as an underdog HAS sucked (so far)
We havent won at Wisconsin since Lloyd Carr was our HC
And we havent exactly been world-beaters on the road (so far)
Hey I think they can (and will) win Saturday. But until we start to change things on the field nobody should be the least surprised when the "experts" pick against us in games like this.
Can you blame them?
September 16th, 2019 at 12:04 PM ^
Shouldn't be surprising - I think this game is pretty close to 50/50, and Wisconsin is home and won their first two games 110-0.
Conversely to the points you made:
- Harbaugh is 2-1 against Chryst, even our worst team/lone loss was a close game
- We beat the B1G West Champs on the road last year
- We were 3-2 against ranked teams last year and one of those wins came on the road
- Michigan is objectively more talented
- Michigan and Wisconsin differ by only 10% in returning production and Michigan won this matchup by 25 points last year
You and I are in agreement here - I think we can and probably will win this game - my point is just that there's a good argument to make for either Michigan or Wisconsin in this one. It's not surprising that the media thinks it will be the home team when it's close, but it would also be silly to think it's a clear loss for Michigan.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:19 PM ^
Also, this year's Wisconsin offense has been much more pass-happy than in past years. Don Brown hasn't allowed a Wisconsin QB to reach 50% completion since he's been here. He typically makes statue QBs look awful.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:27 PM ^
Yep, I just don't see Wisconsin running away all of a sudden. Even in the year that they scored 24, 7 came from a punt return.
Chryst's offense has averaged under 13 points on Brown's defenses.
This game comes down to our offense not shooting itself in the foot, and not giving Wisconsin any non-offensive points.
If we play a clean game, we will win. We're more talented and have better coaching. Can we make fewer mistakes on the road?
September 16th, 2019 at 12:30 PM ^
Another thing about the year they scored 24: Their offense had like 170 yards before Peters got injured at the end of the third quarter. When the game was actually competitive (pre-O'Korn), they were doing absolutely nothing. It seemed like O'Korn coming in and farting around was really deflating for the team.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:31 PM ^
It was. I remember how excited the team got when Brandon came in against Rutgers. The team felt like they could go into Wisconsin and win with Peters. His injury really hurt us emotionally.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:58 PM ^
Co-signed on the emotional let down.
What fans forget is the players, more than anyone, know EXACTLY how good each back-up is on the team and what is likely to happen if/when they enter a game.
When Peters was in there was hope.
When JOK was in there was no hope. They knew what was going to occur before it occurred.
September 16th, 2019 at 3:28 PM ^
Your last sentence nails it, and considering that we're starting Shea Patterson in a road game leading an offense that has looked very choppy, I don't feel good about our ability to be somewhat dangerous and limit mistakes.
So then it's about forcing a lot of mistakes from them and given that they probably don't have to take many risks, this is a tall task. Might be Paul Chryst the run play caller vs. Paul Chryst the guy inexplicably taking the ball out of J Taylor's hands.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:50 AM ^
As expected. UM has not performed up to expectations while Wisconsin has exceeded.
Hopefully Wisconsin has a come back to Earth day like others in the conference have had and UM starts clicking.
I'm not going to over analyze this one. Either UM shows up or it's BPONE for the season.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:58 AM ^
Good. The more guys who pick Wisconsin, the better I like it.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:01 PM ^
Does mgoblue.com broadcast harbaugh's monday presser anymore?
Does anyone cover it? Is it on Twitter?
why is the sky blue?
September 16th, 2019 at 12:08 PM ^
Comments from presser are beginning to pop up on Twitter. The first one I've seen is JH "not sure" regarding injured players returning.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:16 PM ^
Of course he says that. When has he ever been forthright, honest, and open when discussing injury status in a press conference? He'll never give that info to the opponent.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:27 PM ^
Isaiah Hole always posts live updates from the presser on Wolverineswire.com
Here's the link: https://wolverineswire.usatoday.com/2019/09/16/updates-michigan-football-jim-harbaugh-press-conference-week-four-wisconsin-badgers/
September 16th, 2019 at 12:50 PM ^
no
yes. sort of.
Sunlight hits molecules in the atmosphere (CO, CO2, O2, N2 etc.) and violet/blue light (~380-500 nm wavelength) gets scattered much more than the rest of the light (green yellow orange and red light; wavelengths 500-740 nm) due to it's lower wavelength, resulting in us seeing the sky as blue. Sort of like the Pink Floyd The Dark Side of the Moon album cover, but that shows ALL the wavelengths of light being scattered. In our atmosphere, just the blue is primarily scattered so that's what we see.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:10 PM ^
Shrugs. Hopefully with the end of the preseason the steel has been sharpened. Motivated Michigan does well regardless of venue.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:11 PM ^
I expect this game to be close no matter what. I predict our defense seems to take a step back because they are dealing with a solid team and our offense makes some improvements from the first two games. The last thing I predict is that if we win this game it still won't be considered a big game by the naysayers because then they won't have anything to complain about.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:12 PM ^
Are we going to run the kill the clock offense again? If so this game is a coin flip.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:16 PM ^
It doesn't seem like the natural inclination of the staff. I think that was a result of fumble city USA and Shea being banged up. Playcalling early against Army was fine and we moved things along pretty well against MTSU. The caveman offense didn't show up until our drives went: Fumble, TD, Fumble, Fumble.
September 16th, 2019 at 1:01 PM ^
It seems 100% like the natural inclination of the staff, that's why I brought it up. Its what they ran all last year, against Iowa a few years ago, and it really seems to be the go to whenever the going gets tough.
September 16th, 2019 at 1:03 PM ^
Gattis wasn't calling plays in any of those games.
September 16th, 2019 at 1:44 PM ^
The second half of the Army game looked very familiar so either he caught the disease or he wasn't calling plays in the second half of the that game either.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:48 PM ^
I think that due to the fact that A. Army severely limits the number of possessions, and B. We lost 3 fumbles, it's really hard to judge the offensive gameplan/playcalling we had vs Army... it's just such a limited amount to look at.
We only had 9 possessions in regulation, 3 of those were lost fumbles.
Of the remaining half-dozen possessions, 2 were long TD drives, one was a missed FG after moving the ball a bit, 2 were failed 4th downs after moving the ball a bit, and 1 was a three-and-out.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:13 PM ^
So these guys think our defense may be elite, but our offense stinks right now. That's a fair assessment. They didn't mention anything about Shea being injured or Runyan returning. Hopefully those have been major factors over the last couple weeks.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:19 PM ^
They're pretty open about saying they look at nothing but numbers. So who's playing, or why, or with what injury, has no effect on their prognostication. It's only a numbers game based on previous performances.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:25 PM ^
Yeah, and I don't hold that against them. It's a fair way to do things. It's just that sometimes these numbers-only statistical analyses miss things, like an all B1G OT being replaced by a small freshman. As a quantitative researcher, I still appreciate these types of analyses. They often provide us with an unbiased viewpoint that keeps the maize and blue lenses in check.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:18 PM ^
Well this couldn't get any better for Michigan. Wisconsin favored is what we need for motivation. Fat heads shouldn't be a problem. Looking back to the 2017 game, which is a good means of comparison to this Saturday where Badgers were ranked 5th and we 24th. Our O line sucked, DPJ didn't get the correct foot down in the end zone and they get 325 yrds to our 234 with Peters hurt. turnovers will be a key but Wisconsin should be counting any chickens just yet.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:32 PM ^
DPJ absolutely got the foot down. I lost my mind on that call. Still salty about it.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:20 PM ^
We have not won in Madison since 2001, so I am very skeptical that we will go in there and come out with a win.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:37 PM ^
We've only played in Madison 4 times since 2001. Those games were:
- 2005 - Lloyd's worst team at Michigan
- 2007 - Starting QB (Henne) and RB (Hart) were out with injuries
- 2009 - RichRod
- 2017 - Starting QB broken back, Backup QB knocked unconscious halfway through, Third String QB comes in and the game is a close loss nevertheless.
People keep saying we haven't won in Madison since 2001, but there are few factoids less relevant to the outcome of this weekend's game than that one.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:22 PM ^
I have never heard of College Football Nerds until seeing this thread.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:23 PM ^
Take a step back and ask yourself, can you blame anybody for picking Wisconsin?
-they have outscored their 1st 2 opponents 110-0
-they are playing at home
-their opponent has looked no better than a high school team
-their opponent hasn’t beat a ranked team on the road in a very long time.
as much as I will be rooting for Michigan Saturday, if I were betting, my money would not be on the visiting team
that being said......Go Blue all day!
September 16th, 2019 at 1:23 PM ^
Michigan beat a ranked opponent on the road less than a year ago. #14 Michigan defeated #21 Northwestern 20-17 on September 29, 2018.
Who keeps coming up with this talking point?
Not saying I blame people for picking Wisconsin in this game, but unless Shea gets thunder-sacked ala Peters in the 2017 game or unless our "transition cost" yaketty sax bad fortune turnovers countinues, we are going to either beat Wisconsin or lose a somewhat tight game.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:25 PM ^
Who gives a shit who they pick
September 16th, 2019 at 12:46 PM ^
I think M will lose as well. Too soft in the interior of the DL and continued sloppy play and poor game management will let this one get away. Wisc. 21-17.